A Jeremy Scenario

[Adam]

Massive difference between walking & cycling 6 miles. Even if it is on foot & bike paths.

It is strange that people think he walked when evidence & WS's show differently.

The successful prosecution case was he cycled there & back.

[lookout]

Lookout making things up again.

No. You forgetting that the engineer took a phone away to be repaired----because of a lightening strike 

[lookout]

Don't like being caught out do you so you resort to insults.

[guest29835]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQzdAsjWGPg

[Armchair Detective]

We were talking about the situation where JB believed the Police could trace the calls somehow and JB felt he had to fake the calls. Not the situation where JB just lies about the calls etc.

Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?

[Adam]

There were 3 cycle routes. Bamber would know the safest & easiest route/s.  Maybe he used a combinarion of routes.

[Adam]

Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?

Good question.

Did Bamber actually phone his answering machine.

Or just say Nevill phoned him.

It would not take much investigating by him to find out what he needed to do.

[lookout]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQzdAsjWGPg

That was a nice interval QC.

[Armchair Detective]

Good question.

Did Bamber actually phone his answering machine.

Or just say Nevill phoned him.

It would not take much investigating by him to find out what he needed to do.

Yes, or did he improvise making the call to the police without thinking it through - did he even realise he was putting himself in the frame ?

[Adam]

Yes, or did he improvise making the call to the police without thinking it through - did he even realise he was putting himself in the frame ?

QC believes the call to the police happened due to the kitchen fight.

I did ask David what better option he had than create a 4 hour seige situation where he could insinuate Sheila. But got no response.

[Rob_]

Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."

I am surprised no one tried cycling the likely routes at night QC, I suspect they would not have got very far before landing face down somewhere!

The Moon is not very bright, and there is a big difference between full Moon and the other phases. I think  a super Moon at high altitude is something like .3 Lux and a full moon generally 0.1 lux but it depends greatly on the local weather conditions. On the 7th the Moon phase was a bit over 60% I don't think anyone could cycle with this? It always seems to be full Moon when I am trying to use my telescope!

If a cyclist was seen that night at around 3 to 4ish JB is done for, I just cannot see him cycling apart from the difficultly of doing it with no lights? Adam thinks it's a piece of cake oh well.

[Rob_]

Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?

There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?

[Armchair Detective]

There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?

I meant was he bluffing when said in interview that he assumed the police could verify the time of the calls. If the police could have verified that call and it wasn't made or was made much earlier than JB claimed, he would have been stuffed. Personally, I think it's reasonable to have assumed BT would have some records of calls.

It's also possible that he didn't plan to call the police and didn't think things through properly, not least the fact that he made himself the only other suspect.

[Rob_]

I meant was he bluffing when said in interview that he assumed the police could verify the time of the calls. If the police could have verified that call and it wasn't made or was made much earlier than JB claimed, he would have been stuffed. Personally, I think it's reasonable to have assumed BT would have some records of calls.

It's also possible that he didn't plan to call the police and didn't think things through properly, not least the fact that he made himself the only other suspect.

He must have known he would be a suspect, even without the phone calls? But calling the police in the way he did made it a case of only two suspects either him or Sheila.

[guest29835]

I am surprised no one tried cycling the likely routes at night QC, I suspect they would not have got very far before landing face down somewhere!

The Moon is not very bright, and there is a big difference between full Moon and the other phases. I think  a super Moon at high altitude is something like .3 Lux and a full moon generally 0.1 lux but it depends greatly on the local weather conditions. On the 7th the Moon phase was a bit over 60% I don't think anyone could cycle with this? It always seems to be full Moon when I am trying to use my telescope!

If a cyclist was seen that night at around 3 to 4ish JB is done for, I just cannot see him cycling apart from the difficultly of doing it with no lights? Adam thinks it's a piece of cake oh well.

If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse.  Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.