Author Topic: Applying Occam's Razor  (Read 2287 times)

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Offline lookout

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2020, 05:14:PM »
Did he know Sheila was mentally-ill or not?





Certainly not to the extent that the nursing staff at Northampton did.

Offline lookout

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2020, 05:17:PM »
Jeremy had known his mother had been attended by her doctor in the weeks leading up to the murders but not once did he or anyone else state why. Possibly because nobody knew.

Offline lookout

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2020, 05:22:PM »
In Jeremy's simple mind he knew his sister was " mad, a nutter " but that was the extent of his knowledge concerning mental health. You wouldn't really expect a lad of 24 to know the ins and outs of psychiatry would you ? It covers a very large area for a start and involves intense study on each individual.

Offline Jane

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2020, 05:24:PM »




He's not going to make a confession when he knows in his own mind that it wouldn't be true. This is all the police are waiting for and he's just as obstinate and determined not to supply them with one.
How would Jeremy have known how ill Sheila had been when nobody else knew so weren't able to speak about it.

Illness within a family has little interest in a 24 year old . It wasn't as though he was dashing to the hospital to visit when she was in there, nor phoning staff asking after her. Jeremy said himself that he'd wished he'd have taken more notice and had acknowledged Sheila's illness. He was too busy thinking about himself and his own pleasures and entertainment during that time.

You believe what you will but I say he was completely blind/ oblivious towards any mental health in his younger years, possibly because his sister joined his company on occasion in visiting various night-spots/ parties. He wouldn't have given a thought that she could have been unwell at the time, just a bit off-colour perhaps but he couldn't have rattled off chapter and verse on various forms of mental illness.

More surmising/ circumstantial methinks just to build up a case  ::)


Lookout, you have to be the strongest proponant of the theory that, because Sheila was bought up in a house where guns were kept, she'd automatically know how to use one, yet strangely, you don't apply the same principle to Jeremy, a boy bought up in a house in which his sister had always proved problematic to their parents, and latterly, just as you claim of Sheila, he had ears and he had eyes.

 If I've learned nothing else about sibling rivalry, I've learned how one sibling enjoys few thing more
 than hearing their parents displeasure over the other sibling's behaviour. In fact, nothing raises a smirk quicker. He may not have appeared interested in what was said, but he'd have certainly have pricked his ears up at anything which raised him in the favour stakes.

guest29835

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2020, 05:27:PM »




Certainly not to the extent that the nursing staff at Northampton did.

I've no dispute with you about this, Lookout.  I think we are at cross-purposes.  My point isn't that Jeremy had in-depth knowledge of Sheila's condition, rather it's that he knew enough to form the kernel of an idea to stage a murder-suicide in which Sheila would be implicated.

Offline Jane

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2020, 05:28:PM »
In Jeremy's simple mind he knew his sister was " mad, a nutter " but that was the extent of his knowledge concerning mental health. You wouldn't really expect a lad of 24 to know the ins and outs of psychiatry would you ? It covers a very large area for a start and involves intense study on each individual.


He wasn't planning to be a psychiatrist. He wasn't interested is mental health per se. The use of those particular words idicates embarrassment and a desire to detatch himself from her.

Offline lookout

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2020, 05:31:PM »

Lookout, you have to be the strongest proponant of the theory that, because Sheila was bought up in a house where guns were kept, she'd automatically know how to use one, yet strangely, you don't apply the same principle to Jeremy, a boy bought up in a house in which his sister had always proved problematic to their parents, and latterly, just as you claim of Sheila, he had ears and he had eyes.

 If I've learned nothing else about sibling rivalry, I've learned how one sibling enjoys few thing more
 than hearing their parents displeasure over the other sibling's behaviour. In fact, nothing raises a smirk quicker. He may not have appeared interested in what was said, but he'd have certainly have pricked his ears up at anything which raised him in the favour stakes.





Whatever he inadvertently overheard, he'd have probably been shocked to hear anyway, not realising that there was anything amiss and with the sort of life he was living it would soon have fizzled into oblivion. He was too sucked-in by other distractions as he didn't see that much of his sister really, others saw her even less.

guest29835

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2020, 05:38:PM »

Lookout, you have to be the strongest proponant of the theory that, because Sheila was bought up in a house where guns were kept, she'd automatically know how to use one, yet strangely, you don't apply the same principle to Jeremy, a boy bought up in a house in which his sister had always proved problematic to their parents, and latterly, just as you claim of Sheila, he had ears and he had eyes.


Is that true, though?  Based on what I have been reading, Sheila was a pretty normal girl and young woman up to the point that she met Colin Caffell.  (I'm not necessarily implying anything about Colin in that respect, let me emphasise).  I know she had problems with June and there was an incident as a teenager when June caught her with a boy, but I'm not sure if that was in fact Colin or a local (there seems to be some confusion about that). 

My point is that I wonder if the difficulties in the relationship with June have been overly-focalised and exaggerated within the corpus of 'true crime' literature on the case, when in reality the relationship was fairly normal, and even June's mental health issues weren't necessarily very impactful.

Offline Jane

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2020, 05:39:PM »



But if Sheila "inadvertantly" witnessed a gun being loaded, she processed it well enough to load and fire it competently? She wouldn't have had to go through it every day to retain the knowledge -and she had more going on in her life to distract her than Jeremy- any more than Jeremy would have spent every day wondering how Sheila was when they were apart.

Offline lookout

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2020, 06:25:PM »
Is that true, though?  Based on what I have been reading, Sheila was a pretty normal girl and young woman up to the point that she met Colin Caffell.  (I'm not necessarily implying anything about Colin in that respect, let me emphasise).  I know she had problems with June and there was an incident as a teenager when June caught her with a boy, but I'm not sure if that was in fact Colin or a local (there seems to be some confusion about that). 

My point is that I wonder if the difficulties in the relationship with June have been overly-focalised and exaggerated within the corpus of 'true crime' literature on the case, when in reality the relationship was fairly normal, and even June's mental health issues weren't necessarily very impactful.






There was nothing wrong with Sheila when she first met Colin. She'd been your average teenage girl, a tad rebellious ( nothing unusual ) a risk-taker within a strict household ( nothing unusual ) then found in a field with ,who was first described as, a farmhand. Whether or not it was Colin is debateable, as my thoughts are that if it had been him, why have an abortion ? From that day on Sheila was branded the " Devil's child ". An horrendous way of handling a delicate situation.
It was June who wasn't normal with her constant religious rantings which even the twins got upset about.

June's behaviour certainly did impact on Sheila after the abortion as Sheila would have silently gone through the loss which could have sparked the beginning of her and her way of life after that exacerbated a problem that lay dormant.

Initially I'd blame June, who didn't help, then Colin who couldn't handle Sheila as she was but who could himself sought help from professionals as it seemed always to have been left to Sheila's father. Girls usually go to their mums for help ?

guest7363

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2020, 06:37:PM »
In Jeremy's simple mind he knew his sister was " mad, a nutter " but that was the extent of his knowledge concerning mental health. You wouldn't really expect a lad of 24 to know the ins and outs of psychiatry would you ? It covers a very large area for a start and involves intense study on each individual.
Have to agree with you Lookout, he thought of her as a nutter.  You can look at it this way, would Bamber have risked the murder suicide theory had he known about her illness?  At the end of the day he didn’t know what direction the investigation would go, he could only orchestrate it so far.

guest29835

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #26 on: August 14, 2020, 06:49:PM »





There was nothing wrong with Sheila when she first met Colin. She'd been your average teenage girl, a tad rebellious ( nothing unusual ) a risk-taker within a strict household ( nothing unusual ) then found in a field with ,who was first described as, a farmhand. Whether or not it was Colin is debateable, as my thoughts are that if it had been him, why have an abortion ? From that day on Sheila was branded the " Devil's child ". An horrendous way of handling a delicate situation.
It was June who wasn't normal with her constant religious rantings which even the twins got upset about.

June's behaviour certainly did impact on Sheila after the abortion as Sheila would have silently gone through the loss which could have sparked the beginning of her and her way of life after that exacerbated a problem that lay dormant.

Initially I'd blame June, who didn't help, then Colin who couldn't handle Sheila as she was but who could himself sought help from professionals as it seemed always to have been left to Sheila's father. Girls usually go to their mums for help ?

Lookout, thanks. 

Some points I'd like to make (assuming I am right on some or all of this, it may need to also go in the Colin Caffell thread):

1. It appears that prior to 1982, June had never been mentally-ill.  She did have mental health issues that dated back to the late 1950s, but if I understand correctly, that was more along the lines of severe depression.  June's psychosis started after Sheila's marriage to Colin.

2. Sheila was a normal girl/woman up to her marriage to Colin.  There is simply nothing I can see in her history that is the remotest bit unusual.  Indifference to academics.  Trouble with June.  Minor experimentation with drugs.  June catches her with a local boy (or Colin or whatever).  Boredom and dropping out of finishing school.  Not sure what to do.  Can't hold down a job.  This is all normal to a degree and none of it is cause for undue alarm in relation to a young person.  Furthermore, her relationship with Nevill was said to be good.

3. I accept that June calling her the Devil's child (assuming that happened) is a bit much and would have distanced her from June.  The tension in the relationship is apparent in the painfully-awkward photograph taken in the garden.  But really, schizophrenia...??

4. In Dr. Ferguson's statement, he says that June responded to treatment for her psychosis.  Yet Colin makes great play of problems he says were caused by June.  Unless I'm mistaken, the marriage was ended before the onset of June's psychosis.  I wonder how much of the focus on June's supposed 'religious mania' is Colin exaggerating in order to downplay problems that could be traced back to him?

5. Assuming Dr. Ferguson's diagnosis of Sheila was correct (it may well not have been), this schizophrenia may have been a result of a confluence of causes and factors: a bit of genetics, distant relationship with June, and drug-taking.  But I wonder how much of a factor her relationship and marriage to Colin was?  It seems to me that Colin has a vested interest in allowing us to focus on June's religious zeal and the simple notion that she was a 'religious nut' while taking our eye off on his own role in all this.

Question:

(i). How do we know about the 'Devil's child' incident in which June caught her with somebody?  Who is the source for this?

(ii). There is a letter from Colin to Nevill in which he complains about June.  Am I right in saying that this letter was unsent?  In other words, is it right that the source for the letter is entirely Colin himself, the letter having not been received prior to the incident?

guest29835

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #27 on: August 14, 2020, 06:51:PM »
Have to agree with you Lookout, he thought of her as a nutter.  You can look at it this way, would Bamber have risked the murder suicide theory had he known about her illness?  At the end of the day he didn’t know what direction the investigation would go, he could only orchestrate it so far.

Surely the more Jeremy knew, the more enthusiastic he would have been about a murder-suicide staging plan?

Offline Jane

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #28 on: August 14, 2020, 06:58:PM »





There was nothing wrong with Sheila when she first met Colin. She'd been your average teenage girl, a tad rebellious ( nothing unusual ) a risk-taker within a strict household ( nothing unusual ) then found in a field with ,who was first described as, a farmhand. Whether or not it was Colin is debateable, as my thoughts are that if it had been him, why have an abortion ? From that day on Sheila was branded the " Devil's child ". An horrendous way of handling a delicate situation.
It was June who wasn't normal with her constant religious rantings which even the twins got upset about.

June's behaviour certainly did impact on Sheila after the abortion as Sheila would have silently gone through the loss which could have sparked the beginning of her and her way of life after that exacerbated a problem that lay dormant.

Initially I'd blame June, who didn't help, then Colin who couldn't handle Sheila as she was but who could himself sought help from professionals as it seemed always to have been left to Sheila's father. Girls usually go to their mums for help ?

I don't think it was true that "there was nothing wrong with Sheila when she first met Colin". I think, deep down, she was a very unhappy girl who was desperate to feel appreciated and loved. She seems to have earned herself a reputation but I suspect it was more about her looking for love than sex. Like many, she didn't know there was a difference and the males she dated weren't about to tell her.

You ask why she had an abortion. Do you think she had a choice? From what we're told, it was arranged so quickly that she didn't even have time to let Colin know. Perhaps she'd been forbidden to contact him. I'm certain June would have told her it was in her best interests. Now she could get on with her life, get a job, meet a suitable boy etc, etc, etc and put the incident behind her. Except, having never conceived, June wouldn't have had the remotest idea of what that particlar loss feels like.

That June didn't understand Sheila goes without saying. Was it June's fault? It's too close to home for me to objectively answer that. Perhaps Colin could have done things differently, but the point is, whatever he may have felt for her was brief and fleeting, and without deep and devoted love, caring for a mentally ill wife who was full of insecurities and more concerned about her own needs than his, would have been intolerable.

guest7363

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Re: Applying Occam's Razor
« Reply #29 on: August 14, 2020, 07:02:PM »
Surely the more Jeremy knew, the more enthusiastic he would have been about a murder-suicide staging plan?
I would have thought he only knew a limited amount, he hadn’t a clue what was in her hospital/doctors notes, I don’t think he took her medical condition in any way,  other than being a nutter?