Author Topic: Balance of Probability  (Read 6624 times)

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Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2016, 12:34:AM »
The evidence shows the silencer and scratch marks have been manufactured. So who and their character is not relevant to the equation

I agree the silencer was planted ...

Who did it and why is relevant when considering if Sheila committed the murders or not ...

My post showed why it is more likely on the balance of probability that Sheila did not commit the murders ...

It is more likely on the balance of probability that whoever planted the silencer also committed the murders and persuaded Julie to lie - this was the point of my last post ...

Offline Adam

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2016, 12:38:AM »
The only possible scenario is Bamber committed the murder and tried to frame Sheila.

There are hundreds of pieces of forensic evidence showing Sheila was not the killer. Therefore it was Bamber.

Supporters can't even say how Sheila committed the massacre. Which is sick.

Leo Mckinstry was right.

'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline David1819

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2016, 12:39:AM »
The only possible scenario is Bamber committed the murder and tried to frame Sheila.

There are hundreds of pieces of forensic evidence showing Sheila was not the killer. Therefore it was Bamber.

Supporters can't even say how Sheila committed the massacre. Which is sick.

Leo Mckinstry was right.

Your ramblings are meaningless

Offline Adam

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2016, 12:40:AM »
Leo Mckinstry was right. People do believe in lurid conspiracy throries.


"Here we go again. Like a macabre version of Groundhog Day, mass murderer Jeremy Bamber is making yet another bid for freedom. This nasty legal saga has been dragging on for almost 26 years, ever since Bamber was first found guilty of the savage massacre at his family’s farmhouse in rural Essex. By a majority verdict, the jury at Chelmsford Crown Court decided that in the early hours of 7 August 1985, Bamber had shot dead his adoptive parents, Nevill and June, his sister Sheila Caffel, and her young twin sons, Daniel and Nicholas. No fewer than 25 rounds from an Anschutz .22 semi-automatic rifle had been fired at the victims, almost all from point-black range.

After hearing the jury’s verdict, the judge described Bamber as ‘warped and evil beyond belief’ as he sentenced him to life imprisonment, and despite all his protestations of innocence, Bamber has consistently failed to sway the justice system. On two occasions, in 1989 and 2002, the Court of Appeal considered his case in the light of supposed new evidence and both times it upheld the original verdict. Indeed, after the second appeal, the judges wrote, ‘The deeper we have looked into this case, the more likely it seems to us that the jury was right.’ Those words have not deterred ­Bamber. He’s kept up his campaign through the media, through his website and now on Twitter, aided by a group of diehard supporters who revel in lurid conspiracy theories about the actions of Essex police, the courts, and the wider Bamber family.

Cheered on by these creepy fans and a new legal team, Bamber is now seeking to go to the Court of Appeal a third time. His claims of new evidence revolve around the weapon used and some of the witness testimony, and they’re currently being examined by the Criminal Cases Review Commission, which will announce shortly if he will be granted leave to appeal yet again. It would be astonishing if he were, and deeply depressing, for the case against him remains overwhelming. There truly has been no dramatic breakthrough by his lawyers, just a rehash of past material. Last week, in the run-up to CCRC’s decision, ITV ran a high-profile documentary on the Bamber case, claiming that the so-called new evidence could render his conviction unsafe. But the programme turned out to be almost anaemic in its lack of proper substance just a few firearms professionals speculating and a few partisan journalists.

[Alt-Text]
The whole pro-Bamber case has always rested on the theory that his sister Sheila Caffel, who had a long history of mental illness, was the real killer. According to this story, she assassinated her parents and her two children during a schizophrenic episode, before turning the gun on herself. In fact, this is what police initially believed had happened, but a number of developments soon turned the spotlight of suspicion on Bamber. One was his weird lack of any obvious grief in the wake of the massacre. He partied with friends and even went abroad for two holidays. Another was the crucial discovery, in a downstairs cupboard on the farm, of the rifle’s silencer, smeared with blood. This appeared to indicate that Sheila, whose body was found upstairs with two bullet wounds in the neck, could not be a suicidal murderer: the attachment of the silencer would have made the gun too long for her to hold under her chin while pulling the trigger. As the police renewed their enquiries, other factors emerged that ruled Sheila out. There was no firearms residue or oil on her hands, and little blood staining her nightdress. She was a small, thin young woman with no history of violence or experience of firearms. ­Moreover, the crime scene demonstrated that her father Nevill, found slumped in the kitchen, had put up a ferocious struggle against his assailant despite his bullet wounds. Nevill was a fit 61-year-old farmer who stood 6ft 4in tall. So violent was the fight that part of the rifle’s wooden butt had broken off. It was absurd to believe that Sheila, a recovering anorexic, would have been capable of such a struggle.

But Jeremy certainly would. The reason the evidence at first pointed to Sheila was because he had staged it that way to frame her, and his motive for the murder was to inherit the family estate, worth £435,000. A suave playboy used to handling guns, ­Jeremy loathed his adoptive parents so much that Nevill had confided to the farm secretary that he worried Jeremy was plotting to kill him. ‘I must never turn my back on him,’ he said. Bamber’s behaviour on the night of murders was deeply incriminating. He claimed to be asleep in his family-owned cottage near the farm when he received a distraught call from his father, saying that Sheila had ‘gone beserk’ with a gun. But Jeremy did not phone 999. Instead, as he admitted, he wasted time looking through the phone book for the number of the local police station. Then, though he had been known for fast, reckless driving, he pottered over to the farm in his car at 25 mph. He was overtaken by the police on the way. After he arrived at the farm, he kept up a running commentary to the police outside the farmhouse, insinuating that Sheila was guilty.

Just as damning was the testimony of his former girlfriend Julie Mugford, who told the police that he had talked of his hatred for his family and his plans to kill them. ‘It’s tonight or never,’ he reportedly said on the day of the murders. Pro-Bamber campaigners have always tried to dismiss Mugford’s evidence, arguing that she was a tainted witness because not only had he jilted her soon after the murders but also she sold her story to the press after the trial. But it is highly unlikely that she would have dared to perjure herself on such trivial grounds, particularly not in such a serious trial. Nor has she ever retracted a word of her testimony.

Bamber’s defence has always been inherently implausible. Even Bob Woffinden, a veteran journalist who specialises in miscarriages of justice and who spent 20 years arguing for Bamber’s release, bravely wrote last year that he has changed his mind and is now sure of Bamber’s guilt. In running his campaign from his maximum security prison cell, said Woffinden, ‘Bamber still has all the cunning and ingenuity that he displayed in planning the crime.’ The calls to overturn his conviction are a disgrace, based on nothing more than lies, distractions and hollow theorising. The real affront to our justice system would be another pointless appeal for this monstrous killer."
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 12:41:AM by Adam »
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline David1819

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2016, 12:42:AM »
I agree the silencer was planted ...

Who did it and why is relevant when considering if Sheila committed the murders or not ...

My post showed why it is more likely on the balance of probability that Sheila did not commit the murders ...

It is more likely on the balance of probability that whoever planted the silencer also committed the murders and persuaded Julie to lie - this was the point of my last post ...

How does this third party kill Sheila? She has no look of fear in her expression. no ripped clothes. She was sitting up when the first shot was fired how does someone keep her sitting up while they hold the rifle? The idea that she would just sit there and let it happen don't seem credible IMO

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2016, 12:50:AM »
Here is some very interesting stuff. the text below is taken directly from the 2001 Appeal hearings. This may assist you in putting together the puzzle

21.
The Police's own contemporaneous record of the Appellant's call on 7th August 1985, appended to this document, has now come to light. It reveals that the Appellant's initial call to Chelmsford Police station was recorded, in error as conceded at trial, as 3.36am. More importantly it shows that having first spoken to the Appellant and established the nature of the problem in some detail the officer at Chelmsford phoned Witham Police station at 3.26am, that being undisputedly a correct time. It is therefore submitted that the Appellant's initial call to the Police must have been some minutes before 3.26am.
Ann Eaton's Notes In Relation to The Call to Julie Mugford:

22. Ann Eaton's allegedly contemporaneous notes regarding 8th August disclosed at trial stated that there had been a "muddle about the right time of the 3.15 phone call - a London friend was called".

A further note has since been found which reveals that in her original note she stated "talked to Julie about the phone calls Julie said re flatmate (our emphasis - photocopy is poor here exact wording should be clear on viewing of the original) 3.30am". It is submitted that this discrepancy shows that not only was Ann Eaton's note deliberately changed to undermine the appellant's case but that Julie Mugford and Susan Batteresby lied when they gave evidence that the telephone call was 3.15am or earlier, as it was Susan Battersby who was the flatmate referred to it the undisclosed Ann Eaton note.

Julie Mugford's Evidence:
23. In her original statement to the Police dated 81h August 1985 stated at p345:
next time I heard front Jeremy was at about 3.30am on Wednesday morning the th August 1985."
This then changes in her statement of e September 1985 when she states :
" I have since found out from a friend of mine Susan Battersby who lives with
me that it was about 3.15am."
At trial when she was cross examined as to the fact that she had told the police that the telephone call was received at 3.30am, she stated at p38 on 8th October:


Here is some very interesting stuff. the text below is taken directly from the 2001 Appeal hearings. This may assist you in putting together the puzzle

21.
The Police's own contemporaneous record of the Appellant's call on 7th August 1985, appended to this document, has now come to light. It reveals that the Appellant's initial call to Chelmsford Police station was recorded, in error as conceded at trial, as 3.36am. More importantly it shows that having first spoken to the Appellant and established the nature of the problem in some detail the officer at Chelmsford phoned Witham Police station at 3.26am, that being undisputedly a correct time. It is therefore submitted that the Appellant's initial call to the Police must have been some minutes before 3.26am.
Ann Eaton's Notes In Relation to The Call to Julie Mugford:

22. Ann Eaton's allegedly contemporaneous notes regarding 8th August disclosed at trial stated that there had been a "muddle about the right time of the 3.15 phone call - a London friend was called".

A further note has since been found which reveals that in her original note she stated "talked to Julie about the phone calls Julie said re flatmate (our emphasis - photocopy is poor here exact wording should be clear on viewing of the original) 3.30am". It is submitted that this discrepancy shows that not only was Ann Eaton's note deliberately changed to undermine the appellant's case but that Julie Mugford and Susan Batteresby lied when they gave evidence that the telephone call was 3.15am or earlier, as it was Susan Battersby who was the flatmate referred to it the undisclosed Ann Eaton note.

Julie Mugford's Evidence:
23. In her original statement to the Police dated 81h August 1985 stated at p345:
next time I heard front Jeremy was at about 3.30am on Wednesday morning the th August 1985."
This then changes in her statement of e September 1985 when she states :
" I have since found out from a friend of mine Susan Battersby who lives with
me that it was about 3.15am."
At trial when she was cross examined as to the fact that she had told the police that the telephone call was received at 3.30am, she stated at p38 on 8th October:


Jeremy believed that Robert Boutflour was responsible for planting the silencer ,,,

Anthony Pargeter was at the farm days before checking out the 2 Anschulz rifles ...

I know that Davids conscience is troubling him over his involvement in planting the silencer ...

Your post would suggests Anne was involved in lying ...

Obviously Julie was lying if we are correct in our assumptions ...

I did not know that it has been alleged that Susan Battersby was also involved in the lies - very interesting ...
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 01:02:AM by sherlock »

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2016, 12:55:AM »
How does this third party kill Sheila? She has no look of fear in her expression. no ripped clothes. She was sitting up when the first shot was fired how does someone keep her sitting up while they hold the rifle? The idea that she would just sit there and let it happen don't seem credible IMO

If Sheila realised that June had just been shot dead ...

And the killer/s were telling her to cooperate in her own "suicide" or they would shoot her 2 chldren ...

What choice would she have but to co operate with the killer/s ?

If she did co operate then it all makes sense - would you agree ?

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2016, 01:01:AM »
Leo Mckinstry was right. People do believe in lurid conspiracy throries.


"Here we go again. Like a macabre version of Groundhog Day, mass murderer Jeremy Bamber is making yet another bid for freedom. This nasty legal saga has been dragging on for almost 26 years, ever since Bamber was first found guilty of the savage massacre at his family’s farmhouse in rural Essex. By a majority verdict, the jury at Chelmsford Crown Court decided that in the early hours of 7 August 1985, Bamber had shot dead his adoptive parents, Nevill and June, his sister Sheila Caffel, and her young twin sons, Daniel and Nicholas. No fewer than 25 rounds from an Anschutz .22 semi-automatic rifle had been fired at the victims, almost all from point-black range.

After hearing the jury’s verdict, the judge described Bamber as ‘warped and evil beyond belief’ as he sentenced him to life imprisonment, and despite all his protestations of innocence, Bamber has consistently failed to sway the justice system. On two occasions, in 1989 and 2002, the Court of Appeal considered his case in the light of supposed new evidence and both times it upheld the original verdict. Indeed, after the second appeal, the judges wrote, ‘The deeper we have looked into this case, the more likely it seems to us that the jury was right.’ Those words have not deterred ­Bamber. He’s kept up his campaign through the media, through his website and now on Twitter, aided by a group of diehard supporters who revel in lurid conspiracy theories about the actions of Essex police, the courts, and the wider Bamber family.

Cheered on by these creepy fans and a new legal team, Bamber is now seeking to go to the Court of Appeal a third time. His claims of new evidence revolve around the weapon used and some of the witness testimony, and they’re currently being examined by the Criminal Cases Review Commission, which will announce shortly if he will be granted leave to appeal yet again. It would be astonishing if he were, and deeply depressing, for the case against him remains overwhelming. There truly has been no dramatic breakthrough by his lawyers, just a rehash of past material. Last week, in the run-up to CCRC’s decision, ITV ran a high-profile documentary on the Bamber case, claiming that the so-called new evidence could render his conviction unsafe. But the programme turned out to be almost anaemic in its lack of proper substance just a few firearms professionals speculating and a few partisan journalists.

[Alt-Text]
The whole pro-Bamber case has always rested on the theory that his sister Sheila Caffel, who had a long history of mental illness, was the real killer. According to this story, she assassinated her parents and her two children during a schizophrenic episode, before turning the gun on herself. In fact, this is what police initially believed had happened, but a number of developments soon turned the spotlight of suspicion on Bamber. One was his weird lack of any obvious grief in the wake of the massacre. He partied with friends and even went abroad for two holidays. Another was the crucial discovery, in a downstairs cupboard on the farm, of the rifle’s silencer, smeared with blood. This appeared to indicate that Sheila, whose body was found upstairs with two bullet wounds in the neck, could not be a suicidal murderer: the attachment of the silencer would have made the gun too long for her to hold under her chin while pulling the trigger. As the police renewed their enquiries, other factors emerged that ruled Sheila out. There was no firearms residue or oil on her hands, and little blood staining her nightdress. She was a small, thin young woman with no history of violence or experience of firearms. ­Moreover, the crime scene demonstrated that her father Nevill, found slumped in the kitchen, had put up a ferocious struggle against his assailant despite his bullet wounds. Nevill was a fit 61-year-old farmer who stood 6ft 4in tall. So violent was the fight that part of the rifle’s wooden butt had broken off. It was absurd to believe that Sheila, a recovering anorexic, would have been capable of such a struggle.

But Jeremy certainly would. The reason the evidence at first pointed to Sheila was because he had staged it that way to frame her, and his motive for the murder was to inherit the family estate, worth £435,000. A suave playboy used to handling guns, ­Jeremy loathed his adoptive parents so much that Nevill had confided to the farm secretary that he worried Jeremy was plotting to kill him. ‘I must never turn my back on him,’ he said. Bamber’s behaviour on the night of murders was deeply incriminating. He claimed to be asleep in his family-owned cottage near the farm when he received a distraught call from his father, saying that Sheila had ‘gone beserk’ with a gun. But Jeremy did not phone 999. Instead, as he admitted, he wasted time looking through the phone book for the number of the local police station. Then, though he had been known for fast, reckless driving, he pottered over to the farm in his car at 25 mph. He was overtaken by the police on the way. After he arrived at the farm, he kept up a running commentary to the police outside the farmhouse, insinuating that Sheila was guilty.

Just as damning was the testimony of his former girlfriend Julie Mugford, who told the police that he had talked of his hatred for his family and his plans to kill them. ‘It’s tonight or never,’ he reportedly said on the day of the murders. Pro-Bamber campaigners have always tried to dismiss Mugford’s evidence, arguing that she was a tainted witness because not only had he jilted her soon after the murders but also she sold her story to the press after the trial. But it is highly unlikely that she would have dared to perjure herself on such trivial grounds, particularly not in such a serious trial. Nor has she ever retracted a word of her testimony.

Bamber’s defence has always been inherently implausible. Even Bob Woffinden, a veteran journalist who specialises in miscarriages of justice and who spent 20 years arguing for Bamber’s release, bravely wrote last year that he has changed his mind and is now sure of Bamber’s guilt. In running his campaign from his maximum security prison cell, said Woffinden, ‘Bamber still has all the cunning and ingenuity that he displayed in planning the crime.’ The calls to overturn his conviction are a disgrace, based on nothing more than lies, distractions and hollow theorising. The real affront to our justice system would be another pointless appeal for this monstrous killer."

I prefer to believe the evidence of WPC Jeaves than the changing theories of Bob Wolfinden and co ...

How do you explain WPC Jeaves statement about the rifle in the window Adam ?

She was a trained firearms instructor - she knows what a rifle looks like ...

She would not say she saw a rifle unless she saw a rifle ...

Explain that one Adam ...

I am waiting for your explanation mate ...
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 01:04:AM by sherlock »

Offline Caroline

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2016, 11:31:AM »
How does this third party kill Sheila? She has no look of fear in her expression. no ripped clothes. She was sitting up when the first shot was fired how does someone keep her sitting up while they hold the rifle? The idea that she would just sit there and let it happen don't seem credible IMO

How does she shoot herself at a 45 degree angle? Why would she choose to shoot herself at such and angle and wasn't it just lucky that there was one bullet left to finish the job? Coincidence? You don't believe in those!
Few people have the imagination for reality

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2016, 12:54:PM »
How does she shoot herself at a 45 degree angle? Why would she choose to shoot herself at such and angle and wasn't it just lucky that there was one bullet left to finish the job? Coincidence? You don't believe in those!
exactly caroline.the angles are one thing jb never thought of.police also got him in a pickle when asking him to explain the amount of bullets that were found on the worktop near the phone,he could not explain it ;)

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2016, 01:01:PM »
How does she shoot herself at a 45 degree angle? Why would she choose to shoot herself at such and angle and wasn't it just lucky that there was one bullet left to finish the job? Coincidence? You don't believe in those!

You are right Caroline i do not believe in coincidences ...
They make me very suspicious - i prefer scenarios without them - much more likely ...

I think it probable there were 2 gunman ...
Anthony and Robert Boutflour perhaps ?
Unless Anthony was telling the truth about removing his rifle from the farm days before then there were 2
identical rifles and silencers at the farm ...
Anthony had checked both rifles were in working order days before at the farm - why ?

The coincidence of Sheila having 1 bullet left makes it more likely she did not commit the crime ...

I don't think Sheila shot herself - i think it is more likely she was forced to cooperate whilst the killer/s shot her ...

Would that not explain the 45 degree angle better ?

If they had a bullet or two or three left in the rifle they then went back to the kitchen to reload - they loaded the rifle so it had a full 10 bullets ...

They then shot the twins 10 times before leaving the empty rifle on Sheilas body ...

The second rifle (if there was 2 gunman) left the farm with one of the gunman ...










Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2016, 01:03:PM »
You are right Caroline i do not believe in coincidences ...
They make me very suspicious - i prefer scenarios without them - much more likely ...

I think it probable there were 2 gunman ...
Anthony and Robert Boutflour perhaps ?
Unless Anthony was telling the truth about removing his rifle from the farm days before then there were 2
identical rifles and silencers at the farm ...
Anthony had checked both rifles were in working order days before at the farm - why ?

The coincidence of Sheila having 1 bullet left makes it more likely she did not commit the crime ...

I don't think Sheila shot herself - i think it is more likely she was forced to cooperate whilst the killer/s shot her ...

Would that not explain the 45 degree angle better ?

If they had a bullet or two or three left in the rifle they then went back to the kitchen to reload - they loaded the rifle so it had a full 10 bullets ...

They then shot the twins 10 times before leaving the empty rifle on Sheilas body ...

The second rifle (if there was 2 gunman) left the farm with one of the gunman ...
how did the two leave whf :)

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2016, 01:15:PM »
how did the two leave whf :)

no one can say for sure how the killer/s left the farm - or what transport they used ...

i think if there were two gunman then 1 left before Jeremy arrived with the Police ...

the second gunman waited behind to finish Jeremy off when he arrived ...

that is why he left the rifle by the window ...

that is the rifle WPC Jeaves saw ...

he intended to shoot Jeremy from that window as he approached the farm ...

an easy job for an expert marksman like Anthony ...

when Jeremy unexpectedly arrived with the Police the gunman moved the rifle from the window ...

it was this person that caused another Police officer to see "movement in another window" ...

it was this person that the Police saw leaving the area and later described to journalists as the "hunched up man" that they were by then desperate to trace ...

maybe this "hunched up man" was a tramp sleeping in the hedges - but he was more probably the gunman leaving the farm on foot ...

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2016, 01:22:PM »
no one can say for sure how the killer/s left the farm - or what transport they used ...

i think if there were two gunman then 1 left before Jeremy arrived with the Police ...

the second gunman waited behind to finish Jeremy off when he arrived ...

that is why he left the rifle by the window ...

that is the rifle WPC Jeaves saw ...

he intended to shoot Jeremy from that window as he approached the farm ...

an easy job for an expert marksman like Anthony ...

when Jeremy unexpectedly arrived with the Police the gunman moved the rifle from the window ...

it was this person that caused another Police officer to see "movement in another window" ...

it was this person that the Police saw leaving the area and later described to journalists as the "hunched up man" that they were by then desperate to trace ...

maybe this "hunched up man" was a tramp sleeping in the hedges - but he was more probably the gunman leaving the farm on foot ...
what was they motive :)

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2016, 01:36:PM »
what was they motive :)

Unless it was Sheila then it had to be money ...

what other possible motive could it have been to kill a whole family including 2 children ?

and if the motive was money then this only leaves Jeremy or the relatives ...

unless WPC Jeaves was very much mistaken then it was not Jeremy ...

the relatives were according to some accounts heading for financial poverty at the time ...

and who actually ended up with all the money ?

the relatives divided it between themselves ...

« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 01:37:PM by sherlock »