Author Topic: Facts  (Read 50067 times)

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Offline David1819

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Re: Facts
« Reply #75 on: May 05, 2015, 07:51:PM »
On the contrary it is unreasonable to reject the evidence on the basis you do.  The family didn't know a thing about drawback, didn't know Sheila's fatal wound was a contact wound let alone a contact wound that would result in drawback, didn't know her blood type, didn't have access to her blood and even if they wanted to plant blood for simplistic reasons without appreciating anything about drawback they would not have used something to spray blood inside.  Yet the blood inside the moderator was sprayed inside, that is the only way for blood to get on the first 8 baffles.  Furthermore, if the family had planted the blood then Sheila's blood would have been found in the muzzle of the rifle and the family had no access to the murder weapon so can't have removed such blood.  If they had known her fatal wound was one that would result in drawback and had known all about drawback they would have known her blood was in the rifle so planting blood in the moderator would be useless. 

In order to reject the evidence on the basis of the family finding it you need to establish there is a reasonable chance they planted the evidence.  There is not a reasonable chance they planted the evidence. The evidence is safe.

The family are part of the chain of custody.  The house was in police control until August 9.  August 10 the family, Basil Cock etc went to the house and the moderator, bullets and various weapons were found.  The family established the chain of custody of all such weapons. They only had the moderator for less than 2 days, keeping it in a closet or chest until turning it over to police on the 12th. From there the chain was in police custody or at the lab depending on the date. This is sufficient for a court to rule it reliable evidence.

To reject it you have to establish a reasonable likelihood of planting the evidence in question but the defense could not do so the defense had zero basis to suggest they planted any evidence.

What the family did and did not know cannot be fully corroborated. However looking and the evidence it cannot be ruled out 100%

Don't jump to a conclusion but read all I have provided below....

Malcom Fletcher admits the weapon in question is the least likely to produce backspatter.



The only other possibility he sais is deliberate planting of evidence, If he is under the impression it is Shelia's blood then its understandable that he can produce that unlikely alternative.



Fletcher then in 2002 agrees with you saying that Shelia's blood would be in the barrel of the weapon had the silencer not been attached. But he does not rule it out 100% saying there is a slight possibility of it not happening.



How to point of the Blood in the silencer, There is a substantial amount criticism of Mr Hayward's work and his methods of how he produced his results that seems very overlooked. By including


A) Dr Patrick Lincoln came to some different conclusions in his results than that of Mr Hayward.


B) Mr Hayward on document (wrongly dated) probably typed by error 3rd of August instead of 23rd sais the possibility of a mix of June and Neville's DNA is a possibility, This is also considered possible by Mark Webster



Now most damning for Mr Hayward is that he admits his decision was 'influenced' by the Autopsy report of Vanezis. Going by Vanezis claim of a contact wound let him to believe it was more likely Shelia's blood and not a mix of the parents blood. What ever your position on the case it I don't think this is very competent! You should but the samples under 100% of your own professional means without any outside influence specially when it comes to DNA and forensics



Now putting all the above together it does open the possibility of

A) Manufactured and falsified evidence in the sound moderator

or

B) Shelia shooting the entire family resulting in Neville and Junes blood getting in the moderator then putting the silencer away then shooting herself later.


So I think its safe for me to say Jeremy's innocence is Possible but Very Very Very Improbable   and If you rule out the extended family framing him, An Innocent Jeremy is more unlucky than someone being struck by lighting twice then being knocked out by a falling coconut.












Offline Jan

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Re: Facts
« Reply #76 on: May 05, 2015, 08:02:PM »
but you do have to take into account that police in the 80s were well known for bending the truth to get their man . That is a fact. Now why they finally buckled under the pressure from the family I am not really sure . But I have an idea.

Offline David1819

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Re: Facts
« Reply #77 on: May 05, 2015, 10:42:PM »
but you do have to take into account that police in the 80s were well known for bending the truth to get their man . That is a fact. Now why they finally buckled under the pressure from the family I am not really sure . But I have an idea.

If that's the case I would have though some police would have grassed up their colleagues in order to get the £1 Million pound reward he offered in 2002 after his appeal failed

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Facts
« Reply #78 on: May 06, 2015, 06:43:AM »
What the family did and did not know cannot be fully corroborated. However looking and the evidence it cannot be ruled out 100%

It doesn't have to be ruled out 100%.  It just has to be ruled out as being reasonably unlikely.  You keep ignoring the actual burden because you can't meet it.

You need to establish it is reasonably likely that the blood was planted by the family or police and that it is reasonably likely blood had been found in the rifle but police or the lab cleaned out the weapon and concealed the finding of such blood.  If you can't do this then there is no reasonable basis to doubt the blood evidence.


Don't jump to a conclusion but read all I have provided below....

Malcom Fletcher admits the weapon in question is the least likely to produce backspatter.


No what he said is that GENERALLY SPEAKING .22lr bullets are less likely to cause backspatter than larger caliber bullets.  He said however an assessment of backspatter requires looking at the exact circumstances not making broad generalizations.  The location of the wound is of the most importance.
The wound location was full of blood, she had already been shot and her neck was full of blood because she had hemorrhaged. The nature of blood and skin in that area is already good for drawback to occur in the case of a contact wound but because of the area was full of blood it was certain to occur.

You and others choose to ignore the realities.  The reality is that neither at trial nor on appeal has the defense found ANY expert who refutes that drawback would be certain to occur under such conditions.  Not even Webster claimed such.  That was one of the reasons why the Court of Appeals said he failed to undermine the prosecution's case he failed to address let alone refute that had the moderator not been attached then blood would have been found in the rifle.

That drawback is even mor elikely when a bullet is larger than a 22lr doesn't render drawback unlikely when a weapon used is 22LR.  You have to make assessments based on the location of the wound. Drawback is UNCOMMON when a 22LR is used for a shot to the head but even in those cases there are instances where it happens but it doesn't happen a majoiry of the time. So if that had been the case the defense could safely have argued that drawback would not necessarily occur.  But they had to deal with the facts of the case which was a 22LR shot to a body area full of blood and thus that would result in drawback. The only way to try refuting drawback would occur in such location would be to try to find evidence to prove it wasn't a contact shot. If not a contact shot then blood would not get much more than 5mm inside.  The blood was found up to 40mm inside. They found no such evidence though.



The only other possibility he sais is deliberate planting of evidence, If he is under the impression it is Shelia's blood then its understandable that he can produce that unlikely alternative.



Fletcher then in 2002 agrees with you saying that Shelia's blood would be in the barrel of the weapon had the silencer not been attached. But he does not rule it out 100% saying there is a slight possibility of it not happening.


His comment was meant to rule out innocent contamination.  He was effectively saying it is impossible for the blood to have gotten there through innocent contamination the only way blood could have gotten in the distribution found was drawback or deliberate planting.  He wasn't asked what it would take to deliberately plant it though.  It would have required spraying it inside using some sort of device.

A very slight possibility is not good enough.  The defense needed to establish BOTH of the following it was reasonably likely that blood would not get inside the rifle (very slight possibility doesn't cut it) [or in the alternative that it was reasonably likely blood had been found in the rifle but such finding was concealed] AND that it is reasonably likely the blood was planted in the moderator.  You need to establish both in order to refute the prosecution's evidence.

Maybe because I am a lawyer I recognize what the court said is required, maybe because I like guns so much I am able to understand it, maybe because I am not biased I am able to face it while others biased in favor of Jeremy close their eyes to it.  The reason why I recognize what the defense needs to establish is not relevant the fact of the matter is that I do and have explained it.

If the defense doesn't face what it needs to establish to get his conviction vacated then the defense is never going to be able to do so because the first step is recognizing it and then seeking evidence to prove it.


How to point of the Blood in the silencer, There is a substantial amount criticism of Mr Hayward's work and his methods of how he produced his results that seems very overlooked. By including


A) Dr Patrick Lincoln came to some different conclusions in his results than that of Mr Hayward.


B) Mr Hayward on document (wrongly dated) probably typed by error 3rd of August instead of 23rd sais the possibility of a mix of June and Neville's DNA is a possibility, This is also considered possible by Mark Webster



Now most damning for Mr Hayward is that he admits his decision was 'influenced' by the Autopsy report of Vanezis. Going by Vanezis claim of a contact wound let him to believe it was more likely Shelia's blood and not a mix of the parents blood. What ever your position on the case it I don't think this is very competent! You should but the samples under 100% of your own professional means without any outside influence specially when it comes to DNA and forensics

First of all you ignore numerous things.

1) the defense failed to establish there is any way that blood of 2 people shot around the same time could fail to intimately mix.  This was fatal to the contentions of the defense at the Appeal hearing.  They could not establish it scientifically possible.

2)  You are ignoring that even the defense admitted it would be extremely unlikely for anyone to be able to miss that there was a mixture if blood had intimately mixed.

3) The reason why the autopsy is significant is because Neither June nor Nevill suffered any contact wounds let alone contact wounds that were likely to result in drawback so their blood could not get more than 5mm inside. Blood was found to the depth of 40mm and Sheila did have a contact woudn that would result in drawback.   

The combination of this makes it clear it was Sheila's blood.  It is not reaosnably likely the blood was a mixture of June and Nevill's blood.


Now putting all the above together it does open the possibility of

A) Manufactured and falsified evidence in the sound moderator

or

B) Shelia shooting the entire family resulting in Neville and Junes blood getting in the moderator then putting the silencer away then shooting herself later.


So I think its safe for me to say Jeremy's innocence is Possible but Very Very Very Improbable   and If you rule out the extended family framing him, An Innocent Jeremy is more unlucky than someone being struck by lighting twice then being knocked out by a falling coconut.

You got all the issues wrong and worse you failed to do any inquiry related to the family's ability to plant blood. Establishing it was reasonably likely they planted it requires proving they had the requisite knowledge and ability (including access to blood of the victims) not just they had the item in their possession.  If they had tried to plant blood it would have simply fallen inside the opening.  They would not have sprayed it inside which is the only way it could have gotten 40mm inside on 8 different baffles. In addition it would be necessary to establish police either found blood in the rifle and concealed it or Sheila's wound wasn't really a contact wound.

Based on the existing evidence there is no way to establish it is reasonably likely the blood was planted by anyone.  The only people with the requisite skill would have been the lab.   Likewise they would be the ones who would have been in a position to have concealed the finding of blood in the rifle.  So someone who in earnest was trying to establish doctoring of evidence would try looking there.

This doesn't even take into account the paint.  The police would have to have planted the paint and despite this the lab decided to plant blood.  In the meantime the family and police did see some blood inside the opening and on the outside face.  So the moderator was used and the contention of planting would have to be regarding the blood found deeper inside which was a sign of drawback.

So essentially Sheila had to have used it to kill the others, put it away before killing herself (which makes zero sense) and then the lab planted more blood to make it appear there was drawback inside but if they had planted it then they would have made sure they found Ak1 in all the samples not just the flake.

The allegation Sheila went to the closet got the moderator out and attached it then used it to kill everyone else then put it away before killing herself is all the defense had and has but it is not credible and not reasonably likely. So on top of the fact they can't refute the other evidence the story they try to say happened still fails miserably.

One has to be biased in favor of Jeremy and thus to ignore the evidence or not comprehend the evidence/applicable law in order to argue Jeremy wasn't proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

Such arguments will not sway people who actually face the evidence and comprehend it and the law.  That means they have no hope in hell of convincing an appeal court unless they can establish the existing facts are wrong. They have no way to do that though. 
Politeness is organized indifference- Paul Valéry

Offline mike tesko

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Re: Facts
« Reply #79 on: May 06, 2015, 07:12:AM »
Sheila didn't go to the closet as you put it to put the silencer on the gun, the silencer was not fitted to the rifle which fired the second shot, it was never on that gun, and it was never taken off after that rifle fired the fatal shot under her chin...

That is a now proveable and established fact...
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Offline David1819

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Re: Facts
« Reply #80 on: May 06, 2015, 07:30:AM »
It doesn't have to be ruled out 100%.  It just has to be ruled out as being reasonably unlikely.  You keep ignoring the actual burden because you can't meet it.

You need to establish it is reasonably likely that the blood was planted by the family or police and that it is reasonably likely blood had been found in the rifle but police or the lab cleaned out the weapon and concealed the finding of such blood.  If you can't do this then there is no reasonable basis to doubt the blood evidence.


No what he said is that GENERALLY SPEAKING .22lr bullets are less likely to cause backspatter than larger caliber bullets.  He said however an assessment of backspatter requires looking at the exact circumstances not making broad generalizations.  The location of the wound is of the most importance.
The wound location was full of blood, she had already been shot and her neck was full of blood because she had hemorrhaged. The nature of blood and skin in that area is already good for drawback to occur in the case of a contact wound but because of the area was full of blood it was certain to occur.

You and others choose to ignore the realities.  The reality is that neither at trial nor on appeal has the defense found ANY expert who refutes that drawback would be certain to occur under such conditions.  Not even Webster claimed such.  That was one of the reasons why the Court of Appeals said he failed to undermine the prosecution's case he failed to address let alone refute that had the moderator not been attached then blood would have been found in the rifle.

That drawback is even mor elikely when a bullet is larger than a 22lr doesn't render drawback unlikely when a weapon used is 22LR.  You have to make assessments based on the location of the wound. Drawback is UNCOMMON when a 22LR is used for a shot to the head but even in those cases there are instances where it happens but it doesn't happen a majoiry of the time. So if that had been the case the defense could safely have argued that drawback would not necessarily occur.  But they had to deal with the facts of the case which was a 22LR shot to a body area full of blood and thus that would result in drawback. The only way to try refuting drawback would occur in such location would be to try to find evidence to prove it wasn't a contact shot. If not a contact shot then blood would not get much more than 5mm inside.  The blood was found up to 40mm inside. They found no such evidence though.



His comment was meant to rule out innocent contamination.  He was effectively saying it is impossible for the blood to have gotten there through innocent contamination the only way blood could have gotten in the distribution found was drawback or deliberate planting.  He wasn't asked what it would take to deliberately plant it though.  It would have required spraying it inside using some sort of device.

A very slight possibility is not good enough.  The defense needed to establish BOTH of the following it was reasonably likely that blood would not get inside the rifle (very slight possibility doesn't cut it) [or in the alternative that it was reasonably likely blood had been found in the rifle but such finding was concealed] AND that it is reasonably likely the blood was planted in the moderator.  You need to establish both in order to refute the prosecution's evidence.

Maybe because I am a lawyer I recognize what the court said is required, maybe because I like guns so much I am able to understand it, maybe because I am not biased I am able to face it while others biased in favor of Jeremy close their eyes to it.  The reason why I recognize what the defense needs to establish is not relevant the fact of the matter is that I do and have explained it.

If the defense doesn't face what it needs to establish to get his conviction vacated then the defense is never going to be able to do so because the first step is recognizing it and then seeking evidence to prove it.


First of all you ignore numerous things.

1) the defense failed to establish there is any way that blood of 2 people shot around the same time could fail to intimately mix.  This was fatal to the contentions of the defense at the Appeal hearing.  They could not establish it scientifically possible.

2)  You are ignoring that even the defense admitted it would be extremely unlikely for anyone to be able to miss that there was a mixture if blood had intimately mixed.

3) The reason why the autopsy is significant is because Neither June nor Nevill suffered any contact wounds let alone contact wounds that were likely to result in drawback so their blood could not get more than 5mm inside. Blood was found to the depth of 40mm and Sheila did have a contact woudn that would result in drawback.   

The combination of this makes it clear it was Sheila's blood.  It is not reaosnably likely the blood was a mixture of June and Nevill's blood.


You got all the issues wrong and worse you failed to do any inquiry related to the family's ability to plant blood. Establishing it was reasonably likely they planted it requires proving they had the requisite knowledge and ability (including access to blood of the victims) not just they had the item in their possession.  If they had tried to plant blood it would have simply fallen inside the opening.  They would not have sprayed it inside which is the only way it could have gotten 40mm inside on 8 different baffles. In addition it would be necessary to establish police either found blood in the rifle and concealed it or Sheila's wound wasn't really a contact wound.

Based on the existing evidence there is no way to establish it is reasonably likely the blood was planted by anyone.  The only people with the requisite skill would have been the lab.   Likewise they would be the ones who would have been in a position to have concealed the finding of blood in the rifle.  So someone who in earnest was trying to establish doctoring of evidence would try looking there.

This doesn't even take into account the paint.  The police would have to have planted the paint and despite this the lab decided to plant blood.  In the meantime the family and police did see some blood inside the opening and on the outside face.  So the moderator was used and the contention of planting would have to be regarding the blood found deeper inside which was a sign of drawback.

So essentially Sheila had to have used it to kill the others, put it away before killing herself (which makes zero sense) and then the lab planted more blood to make it appear there was drawback inside but if they had planted it then they would have made sure they found Ak1 in all the samples not just the flake.

The allegation Sheila went to the closet got the moderator out and attached it then used it to kill everyone else then put it away before killing herself is all the defense had and has but it is not credible and not reasonably likely. So on top of the fact they can't refute the other evidence the story they try to say happened still fails miserably.

One has to be biased in favor of Jeremy and thus to ignore the evidence or not comprehend the evidence/applicable law in order to argue Jeremy wasn't proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

Such arguments will not sway people who actually face the evidence and comprehend it and the law.  That means they have no hope in hell of convincing an appeal court unless they can establish the existing facts are wrong. They have no way to do that though.

I know It will not sway people and I don't expect it to. It's reasonable to believe he is guilty however it's not beyond all doubt. It's possible but extremely improbable
« Last Edit: May 06, 2015, 07:32:AM by david1819 »

Offline Adam

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Re: Facts
« Reply #81 on: May 06, 2015, 09:01:AM »
but you do have to take into account that police in the 80s were well known for bending the truth to get their man . That is a fact. Now why they finally buckled under the pressure from the family I am not really sure . But I have an idea.

Do you think the police buckled under the mighty RB & AE ?

'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Facts
« Reply #82 on: May 06, 2015, 05:39:PM »
I know It will not sway people and I don't expect it to. It's reasonable to believe he is guilty however it's not beyond all doubt. It's possible but extremely improbable

Our system is not based on beyond all doubt though- it is beyond a reasonable doubt.   That legal standard is clearly met here and that is why the defense lawyers had such a large problem at trial and have has such a tough time trying to win an appeal.

The things I highlighted are big problems for the defense.  They lack any way to currently refute the evidence that convicted him. 

Step one of trying to prove the blood was a mixture of June and Nevill's blood would entail:

1) proving blood could fail to intimately mix inside the moderator
2) proving each suffered contact wounds that could result in drawback into the moderator
3) try to explain why Sheila would have attached the moderator before carrying out the attack (a step that is necessary only because of Jeremy claiming he left the gun out with the moderator unattached which was a big mistake to claim)
4) try to explain why Sheila would have put the moderator away before killing herself


Of course this is all a waste of time unless they also can establish it was reasonably likely that Sheila's fatal wound would not have resulted in drawback.

This is just to try refuting the moderator evidence this doesn't deal with the problems posed by Julie and other things. The defense didn't/doesn't have an easy job. People who want to support Jeremy do not have an easy job given the situation.  That being the case many who want to defend him turn to lies and change the facts so as to make their task easier. If lawyers could change facts and make up things it would be easier too but that won't fly in court. People hear the propaganda and then wonder why this propaganda is not swaying the courts- most of it is BS that can't even be presented to the courts that is why and that limited amount which was presented failed because of inadequate proof.





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Offline lookout

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Re: Facts
« Reply #83 on: May 07, 2015, 11:10:AM »
 Something on the news this morning prompted me to think about when Neville rang Jeremy.
IMO, Neville quite possibly wanted to ring the police,but with Sheila being in the vicinity,and before Neville was shot, he had to quickly revert to ringing Jeremy in case Sheila heard a 999 call being made.

On the news,it was a woman and her children being held hostage by her husband/partner-USA, so the woman had asked if she could order a pizza,to which the answer was yes,so she went ahead and ordered the pizza adding at the end of the order " phone 911,held hostage ". The message was then passed on to police who arrested the man.

Offline Caroline

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Re: Facts
« Reply #84 on: May 07, 2015, 11:28:AM »
Something on the news this morning prompted me to think about when Neville rang Jeremy.
IMO, Neville quite possibly wanted to ring the police,but with Sheila being in the vicinity,and before Neville was shot, he had to quickly revert to ringing Jeremy in case Sheila heard a 999 call being made.

On the news,it was a woman and her children being held hostage by her husband/partner-USA, so the woman had asked if she could order a pizza,to which the answer was yes,so she went ahead and ordered the pizza adding at the end of the order " phone 911,held hostage ". The message was then passed on to police who arrested the man.

A 999 call?  ;) Least you admit it SHOULD have been a 999 call. But that being the case, why didn't he ask Jeremy to call the police, then he might not have been so confused and spent and age looking up station numbers.
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Offline lookout

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Re: Facts
« Reply #85 on: May 07, 2015, 11:55:AM »
A 999 call?  ;) Least you admit it SHOULD have been a 999 call. But that being the case, why didn't he ask Jeremy to call the police, then he might not have been so confused and spent and age looking up station numbers.





 But he didn't get to make a 999 call at first. I imagine that time spent on the phone was limited with a whirling dervish about the place. For all we know and for the little that Jeremy remembers,his father could have quickly added other words to his short conversation of which Jeremy may have forgotten. Obviously,all that Jeremy remembers hearing,first off,was his father's plea,anything else would have remained a blur.
It's not easy getting your head around any call at that hour of the morning,let alone expecting a call such as it was. Unless you're expecting a call will you remember all that it contained.
Jeremy could have said any old rubbish if he'd wanted to, to the police-----------but he didn't.

Offline Caroline

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Re: Facts
« Reply #86 on: May 07, 2015, 11:58:AM »




 But he didn't get to make a 999 call at first. I imagine that time spent on the phone was limited with a whirling dervish about the place. For all we know and for the little that Jeremy remembers,his father could have quickly added other words to his short conversation of which Jeremy may have forgotten. Obviously,all that Jeremy remembers hearing,first off,was his father's plea,anything else would have remained a blur.
It's not easy getting your head around any call at that hour of the morning,let alone expecting a call such as it was. Unless you're expecting a call will you remember all that it contained.
Jeremy could have said any old rubbish if he'd wanted to, to the police-----------but he didn't.

Yes, it is, someone has a gun and has gone crazy, it's 3am and your dad sounds panicked/frightened - you call 999, or go over there or both. Jeremy did say 'any old rubbish' and he keeps changing the rubbish which is why none of it rings true.
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Offline lookout

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Re: Facts
« Reply #87 on: May 07, 2015, 12:17:PM »
Yes, it is, someone has a gun and has gone crazy, it's 3am and your dad sounds panicked/frightened - you call 999, or go over there or both. Jeremy did say 'any old rubbish' and he keeps changing the rubbish which is why none of it rings true.





Where is this rubbish, what does it say,and how is it changed ?

Offline Caroline

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Re: Facts
« Reply #88 on: May 07, 2015, 12:26:PM »




Where is this rubbish, what does it say,and how is it changed ?

The times keep changing Lookout.
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Offline Jan

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Re: Facts
« Reply #89 on: May 07, 2015, 12:42:PM »
Do you think the police buckled under the mighty RB & AE ?

No I think there was another influence - but I am keeping my thoughts on that to my self .

But they did go further and further up the chain - and if you read the Dickinson report there is no doubt they did have influence.