Author Topic: The case of Madeleine McCann  (Read 891321 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6135 on: January 15, 2026, 09:22:PM »
According to Claude 4.5


"The critical constraint is this:

1. The McCanns had NO VEHICLE until 24 days after the disappearance
2. Window of opportunity: Maximum 30-40 minutes between checks, or after 10 PM when the area was immediately flooded with searchers
3. Any scenario requiring body disposal would need:
   - Hiding location within walking distance
   - Accessible during a narrow window without being seen
   - Retrievable 3+ weeks later to move to the car
   - All while maintaining the appearance of searching/grieving parents under intense scrutiny

4. After Kate raised the alarm at 10 PM:
   - Police arrived
   - Resort staff mobilized
   - All friends were searching
   - Area was swarmed with people

5. The Smith sighting at 10 PM shows a man carrying a child AWAY from the apartment at the exact moment Kate was discovering Madeleine missing - this timing doesn't fit a parental involvement scenario."


Claude doesn't seem to be aware of the possibility that Madeleine died prior to the day that she was supposed to have gone missing.

Offline David1819

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 13779
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6136 on: January 16, 2026, 02:04:AM »
Claude doesn't seem to be aware of the  that Madeleine died prior to the day that she was supposed to have gone missing.

There is no possibility of that in the first place.

If we exclude the Tapas 7 witness statements. She was last seen around 5:30pm that very day having dinner with the kids crèche.

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6137 on: January 16, 2026, 02:06:AM »
There is no possibility of that in the first place.

If we exclude the Tapas 7 witness statements. She was last seen around 5:30pm that very day having dinner with the kids crèche.

Yes one female witness? Stellander discusses it.

Offline David1819

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 13779
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6138 on: January 16, 2026, 02:29:AM »
Yes one female witness? Stellander discusses it.

Its corroborated by the creche register.

« Last Edit: January 16, 2026, 02:30:AM by David1819 »

Offline Cambridgecutie

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6546
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6139 on: January 16, 2026, 08:13:AM »
Claude doesn't seem to be aware of the possibility that Madeleine died prior to the day that she was supposed to have gone missing.

You appear to spend a lot of time in dark corners of the web with conspiracy theorists and cranks and avoid looking at the expert evidence.

Patrick O'Connor, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers: "It will have to be a slam dunk.  It will have to be something of a blockbuster piece of evidence to have a chance".

All goals from Lionesses Euro 2025:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DQq5gnwGjs

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6140 on: January 16, 2026, 10:37:AM »
You appear to spend a lot of time in dark corners of the web with conspiracy theorists and cranks and avoid looking at the expert evidence.

Well that includes an ex-superintendent and an ex-military police officer. The crèche register will be common knowledge among researchers. I haven't read Stellander's book so I don't know what he says about the crèche register. But he does talk about a particular nanny or crèche worker statement and how that statement came about.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2026, 10:46:AM by Roch »

Offline Cambridgecutie

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6546
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6141 on: January 17, 2026, 08:58:AM »
Well that includes an ex-superintendent and an ex-military police officer. The crèche register will be common knowledge among researchers. I haven't read Stellander's book so I don't know what he says about the crèche register. But he does talk about a particular nanny or crèche worker statement and how that statement came about.

Have you see the credentials and carried out due diligence on the ex-superintendent and military police officer?

I haven't even heard of Stellander's book.  Have you seen his/her credentials and carried out any due diligence?

As you probably know the Red forum had/has a dedicated board to the case of MM.  It was all pored over in great detail for years/decades by some and months by myself.  There tended to be 3 schools of thought:  unidentified stranger, CB, McCanns.  I ruled the McCanns out for many reasons.  My starting point was that the perp(s) had to have been someone who knew the patio doors were left unlocked every night, the children were alone inside and the McCanns were at the tapas bar every night.  This narrowed it down to Mrs Fenn, her niece and the niece's husband (Carole and Christopher Tranmer) who visited  Mrs Fenn on two occasions during the McCanns stay.  Mrs Fenn, who was in her 70's at the time of MM's disappearance and is now deceased, was the only owner occupier on the complex and therefore slipped under the radar as she wasn't on any holiday lists.

I will keep it brief.  Carole Tranmer interjected herself into the investigation at an early stage by saying she saw someone dodgy hanging around.  She was therefore considered a witness.  Afaik no one has ever interviewed her husband. 

As you might know about a year after the disappearance Leic police interviewed all British based witnesses which included Carole Tranmer.  Her interview, as a witness, is somewhat revealing:

DC1485'When you are on the terrace, to which direction are you turned'

CT'We are turned to a beautiful view of the ocean and all the clay roofs of the village, where one can see the pool, the reception area, the pool zone, the tennis courts, and one could see the roof of the Tapas bar. There are trees and bushes between all of this, so when one looks out, there are only roof tops, the small homes and other villas. It is an incredible view.

DC1485'Did you go to the Tapas Bar with your aunt'

CT'No, no, no it was not there when I visited the last time, and it is something very recent; I believe that it was built about a year ago and I was there before the Tapas Bar was constructed. I think it was a part of the reception or something similar. We were not there before. It is very new.


The above statements were not made consecutively.  Several other exchanges were made in between but it obviously fell on deaf ears with the interviewing officer.  They clearly could not get their head round how a seemingly nice, middle class woman could be involved. 

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/CAROL_TRANMER.htm
« Last Edit: January 17, 2026, 09:05:AM by Cambridgecutie »
Patrick O'Connor, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers: "It will have to be a slam dunk.  It will have to be something of a blockbuster piece of evidence to have a chance".

All goals from Lionesses Euro 2025:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DQq5gnwGjs

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6142 on: January 17, 2026, 10:05:AM »
Have you see the credentials and carried out due diligence on the ex-superintendent and military police officer?

I haven't even heard of Stellander's book.  Have you seen his/her credentials and carried out any due diligence?

As you probably know the Red forum had/has a dedicated board to the case of MM.  It was all pored over in great detail for years/decades by some and months by myself.  There tended to be 3 schools of thought:  unidentified stranger, CB, McCanns.  I ruled the McCanns out for many reasons.  My starting point was that the perp(s) had to have been someone who knew the patio doors were left unlocked every night, the children were alone inside and the McCanns were at the tapas bar every night.  This narrowed it down to Mrs Fenn, her niece and the niece's husband (Carole and Christopher Tranmer) who visited  Mrs Fenn on two occasions during the McCanns stay.  Mrs Fenn, who was in her 70's at the time of MM's disappearance and is now deceased, was the only owner occupier on the complex and therefore slipped under the radar as she wasn't on any holiday lists.

I will keep it brief.  Carole Tranmer interjected herself into the investigation at an early stage by saying she saw someone dodgy hanging around.  She was therefore considered a witness.  Afaik no one has ever interviewed her husband. 

As you might know about a year after the disappearance Leic police interviewed all British based witnesses which included Carole Tranmer.  Her interview, as a witness, is somewhat revealing:

DC1485'When you are on the terrace, to which direction are you turned'

CT'We are turned to a beautiful view of the ocean and all the clay roofs of the village, where one can see the pool, the reception area, the pool zone, the tennis courts, and one could see the roof of the Tapas bar. There are trees and bushes between all of this, so when one looks out, there are only roof tops, the small homes and other villas. It is an incredible view.

DC1485'Did you go to the Tapas Bar with your aunt'

CT'No, no, no it was not there when I visited the last time, and it is something very recent; I believe that it was built about a year ago and I was there before the Tapas Bar was constructed. I think it was a part of the reception or something similar. We were not there before. It is very new.


The above statements were not made consecutively.  Several other exchanges were made in between but it obviously fell on deaf ears with the interviewing officer.  They clearly could not get their head round how a seemingly nice, middle class woman could be involved. 

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/CAROL_TRANMER.htm

I will read your post properly when I get chance. Stellander's book is over 800 pages but is repetitive in places apparently. He spent 7 years studying the case including all statements and evidence. He did not read Amaral's book beforehand (according to Stellander). The former Superintendent (Notts police) adjusted his own standpoint as a result of Stellander. Pat Brown disagrees with Stellander's timeline re Maddie's disappearance. Stellander claims he filmed the McCanns using wildlife cameras

Offline Cambridgecutie

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6546
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6143 on: January 17, 2026, 11:31:AM »
I will read your post properly when I get chance. Stellander's book is over 800 pages but is repetitive in places apparently. He spent 7 years studying the case including all statements and evidence. He did not read Amaral's book beforehand (according to Stellander). The former Superintendent (Notts police) adjusted his own standpoint as a result of Stellander. Pat Brown disagrees with Stellander's timeline re Maddie's disappearance. Stellander claims he filmed the McCanns using wildlife cameras

Without wishing to sound rude Roch you do not appear to learn from your mistakes!  You accepted PH at face value and he turned out to be a complete charlatan.

What you have posted above is not evidenced based. 

Does Pat Brown actually have any credentials?  On her wiki page it states she has a MA in Criminal Justice from Boston University.  When I look at the current courses from Boston University it offers a Master in Science.  Is there some explanation for this?  There might be.  I have listened to her briefly in a couple of YouTube vids about the case of MM.  She does not present well imo which is the reason I am sceptical about her background. 

https://www.bu.edu/grad/program-search/?degree-type=masters&pagenumber=6

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Brown_(criminal_profiler)

Patrick O'Connor, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers: "It will have to be a slam dunk.  It will have to be something of a blockbuster piece of evidence to have a chance".

All goals from Lionesses Euro 2025:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DQq5gnwGjs

Offline David1819

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 13779
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6144 on: January 17, 2026, 12:12:PM »
I will read your post properly when I get chance. Stellander's book is over 800 pages but is repetitive in places apparently. He spent 7 years studying the case including all statements and evidence. He did not read Amaral's book beforehand (according to Stellander). The former Superintendent (Notts police) adjusted his own standpoint as a result of Stellander. Pat Brown disagrees with Stellander's timeline re Maddie's disappearance. Stellander claims he filmed the McCanns using wildlife cameras

Well then, the Bible is over 1200 pages. Must be true.

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6145 on: January 17, 2026, 12:16:PM »
Well then, the Bible is over 1200 pages. Must be true.

The bible isn't research or statement analysis

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6146 on: January 17, 2026, 12:17:PM »
Without wishing to sound rude Roch you do not appear to learn from your mistakes!  You accepted PH at face value and he turned out to be a complete charlatan.

What you have posted above is not evidenced based. 

Does Pat Brown actually have any credentials?  On her wiki page it states she has a MA in Criminal Justice from Boston University.  When I look at the current courses from Boston University it offers a Master in Science.  Is there some explanation for this?  There might be.  I have listened to her briefly in a couple of YouTube vids about the case of MM.  She does not present well imo which is the reason I am sceptical about her background. 

https://www.bu.edu/grad/program-search/?degree-type=masters&pagenumber=6

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Brown_(criminal_profiler)

Brown disagrees with Stellander's timeline.

Offline Cambridgecutie

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6546
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6147 on: January 17, 2026, 12:38:PM »
Brown disagrees with Stellander's timeline.

I will ask again...what makes you think Brown and Stellander's opinions hold water?  What makes you think they have skills over and above professionals?  If you think they have skills over and above professionals what due diligence have you carried out to verify those skills?

You get taken in by a lot of noise imo. 
Patrick O'Connor, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers: "It will have to be a slam dunk.  It will have to be something of a blockbuster piece of evidence to have a chance".

All goals from Lionesses Euro 2025:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DQq5gnwGjs

Offline Steve_uk

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 21091
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6148 on: January 17, 2026, 01:53:PM »
But why would CB be hanging around 5A?  He lived in a different area of PDL a few miles away

Mrs Fenn heard MM crying earlier in the week.  She was so disturbed by it she called her friend.  Disturbed in the sense that she knew what was going on ie child left alone.  She would know the patio doors could not be locked from outside and heard the McCanns exiting through these doors for the tapas bar.  This is how I believe the Tranmers knew.
The McCanns accommodation was on a corner, so more vulnerable to burglary than other apartments in the main section of the building. If I remember rightly one of the Tapas 7 remarked as the accommodation was being allocated she was glad she wasn't sleeping in that particular area.

CB can be placed in the vicinity, if not in the actual complex itself: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/madeleine-mccann-suspect-allegedly-tipped-off-by-hotel-worker/DI6J3RKG6FPU27UXD5RDPW74WU/

Offline Steve_uk

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 21091
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #6149 on: January 17, 2026, 01:58:PM »
According to Claude 4.5


"The critical constraint is this:

1. The McCanns had NO VEHICLE until 24 days after the disappearance
2. Window of opportunity: Maximum 30-40 minutes between checks, or after 10 PM when the area was immediately flooded with searchers
3. Any scenario requiring body disposal would need:
   - Hiding location within walking distance
   - Accessible during a narrow window without being seen
   - Retrievable 3+ weeks later to move to the car
   - All while maintaining the appearance of searching/grieving parents under intense scrutiny

4. After Kate raised the alarm at 10 PM:
   - Police arrived
   - Resort staff mobilized
   - All friends were searching
   - Area was swarmed with people

5. The Smith sighting at 10 PM shows a man carrying a child AWAY from the apartment at the exact moment Kate was discovering Madeleine missing - this timing doesn't fit a parental involvement scenario."

They were given the keys to the Church of Our Lady of the Light by Father Pacheco. There would be time for Gerry to place the body in some crevice, or according to Stellander in one of the caverns by the beach, to be retrieved at a later date.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2026, 02:02:PM by Steve_uk »