Iranian Strike

[gringo]

The Israeli air-force has resorted to strike Iranian missile launch sites. The Iranians don't have modern aircraft or modern SAMs to counter this.

American war ships are mostly there to prevent the Iranians from closing the Strait of Hormuz. This was also done in the Iraq Iran war (The tanker war).

Overall it was a disraction away from Gaza (at Irans expense).

   Iran have many options in closing the Strait of Hormuz that no amount of warships could prevent, David, not to mention that in a gloves off conflict, warships will be amongst the first targets at such close range. Warships in all out gloves off WW3 will be as effective as Cavalry would have been in WW2. As artillery and tanks rendered cavalry obsolete, warships have also met their moment of obsolescence. Anti ship missiles and drones are to warships as artillery/tanks were to cavalry.

[gringo]

The Israeli air-force has resorted to strike Iranian missile launch sites. The Iranians don't have modern aircraft or modern SAMs to counter this.

American war ships are mostly there to prevent the Iranians from closing the Strait of Hormuz. This was also done in the Iraq Iran war (The tanker war).

Overall it was a disraction away from Gaza (at Irans expense).

   It is good to see you engaging seriously, David. Your views will be against the general consensus here but it is better that views challenging that general consensus are posted in the manner you are posting now. Let's hold the ceasefire longer than the Iran/Israel one is likely to last (an admittedly low bar)

[gringo]

Nato Mark Rutte arse licking around Trump, it’s sickening to watch. “Daddy has to sometimes use strong Language ” for FFS.

      It is pathetic to witness, HB

[Hardy Boy]

      It is pathetic to witness, HB

Like Fiona Hill said…………NATO seemed briefly to have turned into the North Atlantic TRUMP Organization.  They’re falling at his feet Gringo and for what, this guy openly say’s “America First”.   How’s that going forward and help for NATO’s……….ONE FOR ALL POLICY?

[Roch]

Nato Mark Rutte arse licking around Trump, it’s sickening to watch. “Daddy has to sometimes use strong Language ” for FFS.

[Hardy Boy]

😂😂😂👍

[gringo]

   

[David1819]

   Iran have many options in closing the Strait of Hormuz that no amount of warships could prevent, David, not to mention that in a gloves off conflict, warships will be amongst the first targets at such close range. Warships in all out gloves off WW3 will be as effective as Cavalry would have been in WW2. As artillery and tanks rendered cavalry obsolete, warships have also met their moment of obsolescence. Anti ship missiles and drones are to warships as artillery/tanks were to cavalry.

There is no way they can block off the straight and hold off the USN. They have no peer adversary.

Warships have existed for thousands of years and I expect they will continue to evolve for perhaps a thousand more.

13 Japanese aircraft carriers and 7 Americans aircraft carriers lay at the bottom of the pacific from WW2. Yet they have been replaced and improved.

One of those 13 Japanese carriers was actually a submarine that could launch planes.

https://youtu.be/-1AJurcSWCw?feature=shared&t=1308

[Cambridgecutie]

You've got Hugo Backache, or whatever his name is, on the brain which is clouding your judgement.

He is undoubtedly the complete package   

https://x.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1562308473282772995

Love the big furry microphone 

[Steve_uk]

He is undoubtedly the complete package   

https://x.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1562308473282772995

Love the big furry microphone 

I find him a bit hard to listen to. Maybe it's because he's moving around whilst talking, added to English not being his first language.

Rather an overweening biography to digest. In fact, I wasn't sure whether I was reading about a BBC journalist or Saint Francis of Assisi. https://baddiehu.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/hugo-bachega/

[Cambridgecutie]

I find him a bit hard to listen to. Maybe it's because he's moving around whilst talking, added to English not being his first language.

Rather an overweening biography to digest. In fact, I wasn't sure whether I was reading about a BBC journalist or Saint Francis of Assisi. https://baddiehu.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/hugo-bachega/

I like his accent/voice and have no problem understanding him.  I like to imagine him pouring me a chilled glass of Whispering Angel whilst simultaneously giving me the low-down on geo politics 

[gringo]

There is no way they can block off the straight and hold off the USN. They have no peer adversary.

Warships have existed for thousands of years and I expect they will continue to evolve for perhaps a thousand more.

13 Japanese aircraft carriers and 7 Americans aircraft carriers lay at the bottom of the pacific from WW2. Yet they have been replaced and improved.

One of those 13 Japanese carriers was actually a submarine that could launch planes.

https://youtu.be/-1AJurcSWCw?feature=shared&t=1308

   You are at odds with US intel and all interested parties in that view, David. Iran are unlikely to do so but the capability to close it isn't really disputed. I expect naval power will evolve in some ways, probably some form of unmanned drones, but Aircraft Carrier strike groups are already becoming neutralised. The Yemenis (AnsarAllah) caused so many problems that they forced a number of Carrier Groups to retreat. Iran's anti shipping capabilities are magnitudes greater than AnsarAllah. The counter measures to Carrier Groups are akin to artillery versus cavalry charges and have made them redundant already in any serious war. There are anyway a multitude of ways to close the Strait of Hormuz. Mines, marine drones for starters would close the Strait to commercial shipping. How would US navy operating in the narrow confines of the SoH be able to tackle even the above without being targets themselves? Iran are playing a "home game" David and this is the most relevant factor. 
     It is generally accepted, even by US intel, that Iran could close the Strait. It is a card that Iran holds that impacts on all other decisions in the attempts to subdue Iran. US navy couldn't prevent the closure, David. Iran don't need to be a "peer adversary" in naval power to close Strait of Hormuz.

[David1819]

   You are at odds with US intel and all interested parties in that view, David. Iran are unlikely to do so but the capability to close it isn't really disputed. I expect naval power will evolve in some ways, probably some form of unmanned drones, but Aircraft Carrier strike groups are already becoming neutralised. The Yemenis (AnsarAllah) caused so many problems that they forced a number of Carrier Groups to retreat. Iran's anti shipping capabilities are magnitudes greater than AnsarAllah. The counter measures to Carrier Groups are akin to artillery versus cavalry charges and have made them redundant already in any serious war. There are anyway a multitude of ways to close the Strait of Hormuz. Mines, marine drones for starters would close the Strait to commercial shipping. How would US navy operating in the narrow confines of the SoH be able to tackle even the above without being targets themselves? Iran are playing a "home game" David and this is the most relevant factor. 
     It is generally accepted, even by US intel, that Iran could close the Strait. It is a card that Iran holds that impacts on all other decisions in the attempts to subdue Iran. US navy couldn't prevent the closure, David. Iran don't need to be a "peer adversary" in naval power to close Strait of Hormuz.

There is no way a green water navy defeats a blue water navy. Its not even debatable.

Naval defences are adapting to new threats https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJROWdRN7N0

According to Claude -

"Iran technically has the capability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but fully closing it would be extremely difficult and comes with significant risks for Iran itself.

**Iran's Capabilities:**
Iran possesses approximately five thousand to six thousand naval mines, according to US intelligence estimates. Iran has the capability to deploy large quantities of these mines in the narrow passage of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. With thousands each of naval mines, attack UAVs, and missiles in its arsenal, Iran has the capacity to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

**Why Iran Likely Won't Close It:**
But the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran's rhetoric around closing the strait. A closure would provoke Iran's markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. Iran in its weakened state is unlikely to seek escalation of that kind at this time.

**The Strategic Reality:**
As of June 2025, the Strait has never been closed during Middle East conflicts, and in the face of a determined US response, Iran is not capable of completely closing the strait. The waterway is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but there are other navigable paths beyond the main shipping lanes.

**Economic Stakes:**
About 20% of global oil consumption flows through the strait daily - roughly 20 million barrels. Closing it would hurt Iran's own economy since China buys about 90% of Iran's oil exports. If they do that, the first people that should be angry about it are the Chinese government, because a lot of their oil comes through there.

So while Iran has the military means to disrupt shipping, actually closing the strait would be "economic suicide" that would likely trigger massive international retaliation while harming Iran's own vital oil exports."

[gringo]

There is no way a green water navy defeats a blue water navy. Its not even debatable.

Naval defences are adapting to new threats https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJROWdRN7N0

According to Claude -

"Iran technically has the capability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but fully closing it would be extremely difficult and comes with significant risks for Iran itself.

**Iran's Capabilities:**
Iran possesses approximately five thousand to six thousand naval mines, according to US intelligence estimates. Iran has the capability to deploy large quantities of these mines in the narrow passage of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. With thousands each of naval mines, attack UAVs, and missiles in its arsenal, Iran has the capacity to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

**Why Iran Likely Won't Close It:**
But the possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran's rhetoric around closing the strait. A closure would provoke Iran's markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. Iran in its weakened state is unlikely to seek escalation of that kind at this time.

**The Strategic Reality:**
As of June 2025, the Strait has never been closed during Middle East conflicts, and in the face of a determined US response, Iran is not capable of completely closing the strait. The waterway is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but there are other navigable paths beyond the main shipping lanes.

**Economic Stakes:**
About 20% of global oil consumption flows through the strait daily - roughly 20 million barrels. Closing it would hurt Iran's own economy since China buys about 90% of Iran's oil exports. If they do that, the first people that should be angry about it are the Chinese government, because a lot of their oil comes through there.

So while Iran has the military means to disrupt shipping, actually closing the strait would be "economic suicide" that would likely trigger massive international retaliation while harming Iran's own vital oil exports."

    Claude is not a serious source, David. AnsarAllah forced away several Carrier Groups from the Red Sea. This is just a fact. Iran and Strait of Hormuz is a more formidable challenge, by magnitudes. No serious and objective person believes that US Navy could prevent a determined Iran closing SoH.

[Roch]

Wonder if there is any truth in this..