Iranian Strike

[gringo]

      Weighing everything up in the aftermath of the latest round, how do other posters see the current position? Who is stronger? Who is weaker? Why? How? etc. Will the supposed ceasefire hold? For how long? What happens in the next round, which seems inevitable? or ...?
     

[Hardy Boy]

      Weighing everything up in the aftermath of the latest round, how do other posters see the current position? Who is stronger? Who is weaker? Why? How? etc. Will the supposed ceasefire hold? For how long? What happens in the next round, which seems inevitable? or ...?
     

The West is in panic mode Gringo and has been for a while.  Putin has caused the biggest pain on the West, he caused a shock to the global economies triggering high inflation.  Everyone keeps saying that Russia is on its knees, three years on it keeps marching on.  Out of all the leaders, Putin is the smartest and plays the part well.  He could have flattened Ukraine, he doesn’t want that though, he wants the Country and the People, I think that will happen one day through elections when he has someone Pro Russia in place?

Israel and Iran, again, the West is frightened to open the Pandora box, like you say, it would cause a massive spike to inflation again and the West couldn’t sustain such, they are frightened of the consequences of terrorists within their own Countries,  it wouldn’t affect Russia or China etc it would help them.  Israel have come out worst both in credibility and Respect, in terms of the 12 day war, I’m not sure yet Gringo, if they haven't succeeded in their objectives along with the USA to thwart the Nuclear programme, then they have failed.  But like they have said, from Iran’s perspective,  it could only be a set back and it might make them more determined after this Gringo?  After all,  You cannot take the knowledge out of their head?

The cease fire will hold for as long as Iran wants it to in my opinion, Trump doesn’t want to break it so Israel will not be allowed to, Iran might try to push Israel to do such and further anger Trump?

[Roch]

      Weighing everything up in the aftermath of the latest round, how do other posters see the current position? Who is stronger? Who is weaker? Why? How? etc. Will the supposed ceasefire hold? For how long? What happens in the next round, which seems inevitable? or ...?
     

Israel will need to adjust it's A/D. It will get restocked. They will study footage of how missiles got through and how decoys might have been used. Israel will now be frightened of Iran's missile capability. 

Iran needs to urgently replenish and continue with R & D to keep ahead.  It's ballistics strategy worked. Not sure it's A/D worked well with Israeli missiles.  They need to understand how Israelis located the scientists and military. They need to publish details of which family members where killed. They need to obtain evidence of military and strategic targets they hit and advertise it.

[Hardy Boy]

The West is in panic mode Gringo and has been for a while.  Putin has caused the biggest pain on the West, he caused a shock to the global economies triggering high inflation.  Everyone keeps saying that Russia is on its knees, three years on it keeps marching on.  Out of all the leaders, Putin is the smartest and plays the part well.  He could have flattened Ukraine, he doesn’t want that though, he wants the Country and the People, I think that will happen one day through elections when he has someone Pro Russia in place?

Israel and Iran, again, the West is frightened to open the Pandora box, like you say, it would cause a massive spike to inflation again and the West couldn’t sustain such, they are frightened of the consequences of terrorists within their own Countries,  it wouldn’t affect Russia or China etc it would help them.  Israel have come out worst both in credibility and Respect, in terms of the 12 day war, I’m not sure yet Gringo, if they haven't succeeded in their objectives along with the USA to thwart the Nuclear programme, then they have failed.  But like they have said, from Iran’s perspective,  it could only be a set back and it might make them more determined after this Gringo?  After all,  You cannot take the knowledge out of their head?

The cease fire will hold for as long as Iran wants it to in my opinion, Trump doesn’t want to break it so Israel will not be allowed to, Iran might try to push Israel to do such and further anger Trump?

In the days following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear test sides, reports indicated the sites were severely damaged but not totally destroyed. Experts point out that nuclear bombs are based on 80-year-old technology and Iran still has the knowledge and means to build new enrichment centrifuges.
 
Uriel Abulof, a visiting professor in Cornell University’s government department and a professor of politics at Tel-Aviv University, published a case study in the journal Politics and Policy: "Nuclear Diversion Theory and Legitimacy Crisis: The Case of Iran."
 
Abulof says: “In the aftermath of recent regional escalations, there’s a growing risk of repeating a familiar—and dangerous—pattern: ceasefire, self-congratulation, and strategic blindness. Iran’s leadership, emboldened by survival rather than victory, may be quietly advancing toward a nuclear breakout under the radar.

“A messianic Iranian regime under siege, armed with just enough nuclear capability to be dangerous, is the darkest kind of threat. With only 50 advanced centrifuges (IR-6), Iran could enrich 50–60 kg of uranium from 60% to weapons-grade (90%) within weeks—enough for a basic atomic bomb. That bomb wouldn’t need to be launched on a missile. It could be assembled covertly, without a nuclear test, and delivered in a truck or a shipping container."

[gringo]

In the days following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear test sides, reports indicated the sites were severely damaged but not totally destroyed. Experts point out that nuclear bombs are based on 80-year-old technology and Iran still has the knowledge and means to build new enrichment centrifuges.
 
Uriel Abulof, a visiting professor in Cornell University’s government department and a professor of politics at Tel-Aviv University, published a case study in the journal Politics and Policy: "Nuclear Diversion Theory and Legitimacy Crisis: The Case of Iran."
 
Abulof says: “In the aftermath of recent regional escalations, there’s a growing risk of repeating a familiar—and dangerous—pattern: ceasefire, self-congratulation, and strategic blindness. Iran’s leadership, emboldened by survival rather than victory, may be quietly advancing toward a nuclear breakout under the radar.

“A messianic Iranian regime under siege, armed with just enough nuclear capability to be dangerous, is the darkest kind of threat. With only 50 advanced centrifuges (IR-6), Iran could enrich 50–60 kg of uranium from 60% to weapons-grade (90%) within weeks—enough for a basic atomic bomb. That bomb wouldn’t need to be launched on a missile. It could be assembled covertly, without a nuclear test, and delivered in a truck or a shipping container."

    Got to admit, HB, reading that a Jewish Professor from Tel Aviv University is worried about a, " Messianic regime with enough nuclear capability to be dark and dangerous who may covertly assemble a nuclear bomb" is hilarious projection. Wonder how he thought of that plot

[gringo]

Israel will need to adjust it's A/D. It will get restocked. They will study footage of how missiles got through and how decoys might have been used. Israel will now be frightened of Iran's missile capability. 

Iran needs to urgently replenish and continue with R & D to keep ahead.  It's ballistics strategy worked. Not sure it's A/D worked well with Israeli missiles.  They need to understand how Israelis located the scientists and military. They need to publish details of which family members where killed. They need to obtain evidence of military and strategic targets they hit and advertise it.

   That sounds a reasonable assessment, Roch. I think the whole of NATO, not just Israel, will now be frightened of the missile and AD capability that has been developed by Iran and others who are resisting Empire. As well as "re-stocking", I would also add that the West also need to catch up and need to invest in R & D themselves, not sure they have the time to do so now though. The gap in capability in demonstrably large.
     Iran, as you observe, are certain to accelerate their own programme.

[Hardy Boy]

    Got to admit, HB, reading that a Jewish Professor from Tel Aviv University is worried about a, " Messianic regime with enough nuclear capability to be dark and dangerous who may covertly assemble a nuclear bomb" is hilarious projection. Wonder how he thought of that plot

Yes I did think that myself Gringo, it seems too far fetched in my opinion?

[gringo]

The West is in panic mode Gringo and has been for a while.  Putin has caused the biggest pain on the West, he caused a shock to the global economies triggering high inflation.  Everyone keeps saying that Russia is on its knees, three years on it keeps marching on.  Out of all the leaders, Putin is the smartest and plays the part well.  He could have flattened Ukraine, he doesn’t want that though, he wants the Country and the People, I think that will happen one day through elections when he has someone Pro Russia in place?

Israel and Iran, again, the West is frightened to open the Pandora box, like you say, it would cause a massive spike to inflation again and the West couldn’t sustain such, they are frightened of the consequences of terrorists within their own Countries,  it wouldn’t affect Russia or China etc it would help them.  Israel have come out worst both in credibility and Respect, in terms of the 12 day war, I’m not sure yet Gringo, if they haven't succeeded in their objectives along with the USA to thwart the Nuclear programme, then they have failed.  But like they have said, from Iran’s perspective,  it could only be a set back and it might make them more determined after this Gringo?  After all,  You cannot take the knowledge out of their head?

The cease fire will hold for as long as Iran wants it to in my opinion, Trump doesn’t want to break it so Israel will not be allowed to, Iran might try to push Israel to do such and further anger Trump?

    You can picture Corporal Jones running around the MOD right about now, "Don't panic, Don't panic". I think you are spot on, HB, in your assessment of the current state of the board. Putin is the smartest in the room, always. When the history is written, he will be remembered as the greatest Statesman of the 21st century. The entire current Western leadership will be lucky to be a footnote.

[Hardy Boy]

    You can picture Corporal Jones running around the MOD right about now, "Don't panic, Don't panic". I think you are spot on, HB, in your assessment of the current state of the board. Putin is the smartest in the room, always. When the history is written, he will be remembered as the greatest Statesman of the 21st century. The entire current Western leadership will be lucky to be a footnote.

Ha Ha, the West is full of the Jones’s, Watch Taiwan Next Gringo and the West will do nothing.  Sanctions against China will hurt the West even more. 

[Hardy Boy]

Ha Ha, the West is full of the Jones’s, Watch Taiwan Next Gringo and the West will do nothing.  Sanctions against China will hurt the West even more.

Nato Mark Rutte arse licking around Trump, it’s sickening to watch. “Daddy has to sometimes use strong Language ” for FFS.

[David1819]

      Weighing everything up in the aftermath of the latest round, how do other posters see the current position? Who is stronger? Who is weaker? Why? How? etc. Will the supposed ceasefire hold? For how long? What happens in the next round, which seems inevitable? or ...?
     

Both sides are likely low on missiles and just want to replenish stocks.

The Israeli's are more confident in going into Iranian airspace now. The fact its taken them up until now to strike the nuclear facilities shows they have for a long time considered it something very risky and overestimate the task.

The next round will probably be no different than the others.

Putin said he is trying to stay neutral as their are a large number of Russian-speaking Israelis.

Its been humiliating for the Iranian government and they will probably seek revenge somehow.

[David1819]

Yes I did think that myself Gringo, it seems too far fetched in my opinion?

Denuclearization of the middle east will only happen if Israel, Iran, Pakistan and India all come together and agree to Denuclearization and they all trust each-other in doing so. But this is idealistic and will never happen.

[gringo]

Yes I did think that myself Gringo, it seems too far fetched in my opinion?

   I was being sarcastic about the Zionist regime, HB, who actually are, “a messianic regime with enough nuclear material to be dark and dangerous who covertly assembled a nuclear weapon”.
    The projection is hilarious.

[gringo]

Both sides are likely low on missiles and just want to replenish stocks.

The Israeli's are more confident in going into Iranian airspace now. The fact its taken them up until now to strike the nuclear facilities shows they have for a long time considered it something very risky and overestimate the task.

The next round will probably be no different than the others.

Putin said he is trying to stay neutral as their are a large number of Russian-speaking Israelis.

Its been humiliating for the Iranian government and they will probably seek revenge somehow.

   And not a clown face in sight, David. There is general consensus, not just here but across the breadth of commentary that the time out/ ceasefire- whatever we call it- was welcome to both sides for different reasons. It is also generally acknowledged that Iran have many more missiles than Israel have interceptors. It is also acknowledged that Israel asked for the ceasefire, after being the initiator of the current round. The damage to both sides is significant, David, and we can agree that a ceasefire is welcome to both sides.
     It is worth noting that Israeli defences were pierced at will despite multi layers of extra defence provided by Arab states and NATO navies and air forces. It is wholly unsustainable for that amount of assets to be deployed simply as AD for Israel, especially given the fact Iran can still pentrate at will. It seems that Iran have problems to solve but Israel have greater, probably unsolvable problems.

[David1819]

   And not a clown face in sight, David. There is general consensus, not just here but across the breadth of commentary that the time out/ ceasefire- whatever we call it- was welcome to both sides for different reasons. It is also generally acknowledged that Iran have many more missiles than Israel have interceptors. It is also acknowledged that Israel asked for the ceasefire, after being the initiator of the current round. The damage to both sides is significant, David, and we can agree that a ceasefire is welcome to both sides.
     It is worth noting that Israeli defences were pierced at will despite multi layers of extra defence provided by Arab states and NATO navies and air forces. It is wholly unsustainable for that amount of assets to be deployed simply as AD for Israel, especially given the fact Iran can still pentrate at will. It seems that Iran have problems to solve but Israel have greater, probably unsolvable problems.

The Israeli air-force has resorted to strike Iranian missile launch sites. The Iranians don't have modern aircraft or modern SAMs to counter this.

American war ships are mostly there to prevent the Iranians from closing the Strait of Hormuz. This was also done in the Iraq Iran war (The tanker war).

Overall it was a disraction away from Gaza (at Irans expense).