Author Topic: Iranian Strike  (Read 47140 times)

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Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #241 on: April 28, 2025, 10:28:PM »
I think one can hazard a guess of what's in store for Iran. https://www.jns.org/iran-nuclear-deal-must-remove-enrichment-capabilities-netanyahu-tells-jns/?utm_campaign=Daily%20Syndicate%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_c1PDgRy6dWScZyBwtGa4PXGnn_sQ084rhexQWvwsnUgzXjNaT4wVs1g41GMciGZuBDDQFh2bAiByE8A-bUQSdDYIzzyJQY2ZXhdPyU-NuOa3Br6o&_hsmi=108514500&utm_content=108514500&utm_source=hs_email
     What do you imagine is in store for Iran? The US/Israel have no way of defeating Iran without destroying themselves. They can't prevent AnsarAllah(Houthis) from choking off the Red Sea and Suez to Israeli/US shipping despite a couple of aircraft Carrier groups and B2 long distance bombers doing their utmost. Any attack on Iran would result in every US base in the Middle East being destroyed and any Aircraft carrier group sunk. Israel would do even worse than that and would cease to exist. No nukes are required to end Israel. A handful of strategic targets makes it untenable anyway. Dimona, Haifa oil refinery, chemicals plant, desalination plant and port.
     Iranian missile capability is much superior to US/Israel in both quality and quantity. Their Air Defence capabilities make any attempted bombing raids problematical, to say the least. Many vital assets and capabilities are hidden in the vast desert and mountains of Iran, deep underground. There is a reason that Iran hasn't been attacked despite many threats, Steve, and those reasons have grown exponentially over the years. Another example of the utter failure of the use of sanctions by US/UK/EU et al. Sanctions policies have backfired completely and strengthened the sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia whilst weakening the sanctioners.
     There is no attack "in store" for Iran. The would be attackers can't afford the cost.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #242 on: May 03, 2025, 12:10:AM »
     What do you imagine is in store for Iran? The US/Israel have no way of defeating Iran without destroying themselves. They can't prevent AnsarAllah(Houthis) from choking off the Red Sea and Suez to Israeli/US shipping despite a couple of aircraft Carrier groups and B2 long distance bombers doing their utmost. Any attack on Iran would result in every US base in the Middle East being destroyed and any Aircraft carrier group sunk. Israel would do even worse than that and would cease to exist. No nukes are required to end Israel. A handful of strategic targets makes it untenable anyway. Dimona, Haifa oil refinery, chemicals plant, desalination plant and port.
     Iranian missile capability is much superior to US/Israel in both quality and quantity. Their Air Defence capabilities make any attempted bombing raids problematical, to say the least. Many vital assets and capabilities are hidden in the vast desert and mountains of Iran, deep underground. There is a reason that Iran hasn't been attacked despite many threats, Steve, and those reasons have grown exponentially over the years. Another example of the utter failure of the use of sanctions by US/UK/EU et al. Sanctions policies have backfired completely and strengthened the sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia whilst weakening the sanctioners.
     There is no attack "in store" for Iran. The would be attackers can't afford the cost.
It may be a token attack in response to 7 October, when Hamas, sponsored by Iran, killed 1200 Israelis and took 251 hostages. I could foresee the targeting of the Fuel Enrichment Plants at Natanz and Fordow, with possibly the assistance of the USA, using the bunker busters fired by B-2 bombers.

This is the Israel founded on the Old Testament, with its message of wrath and retribution. There are none of Jesus Christ's Beatitudes here.


Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #244 on: May 06, 2025, 02:18:AM »
It may be a token attack in response to 7 October, when Hamas, sponsored by Iran, killed 1200 Israelis and took 251 hostages. I could foresee the targeting of the Fuel Enrichment Plants at Natanz and Fordow, with possibly the assistance of the USA, using the bunker busters fired by B-2 bombers.

This is the Israel founded on the Old Testament, with its message of wrath and retribution. There are none of Jesus Christ's Beatitudes here.
    And then what do you think will happen? The US and Israel understand that the retaliation that Iran could unleash even if you don't. Iran's geography(surrounded by mountains and sea), as has been pointed out before, makes it almost impossible to invade. Its vast mountainous and desert areas ideal for many impenetrable underground bases from which to retaliate massively no matter the damage elsewhere.
     Long distance warfare is what the US/UK/Israel are currently waging against AnsarAllah(Houthis) and the lack of success is plain to see. AnsarAllah similarly are protected from ground invasion by the same quirks of geography as Iran, a terrain which is suited to defensive war. This point was brutally emphasised when the US/UK/Saudi/UAE sponsored mercenaries kept getting ambushed and having their equipment taken by the Houthis every time they tried a land invasion in the recent western sponsored war on Yemen. The bombing raids are completely ineffective against the military capabilities of the Houthis who are well dug in and hidden and so are instead targeted at civilian infrastructure and populations, which is Standard Operational Procedure for Western militaries. The US Navy is being humiliated by a military with a fraction of the capabilities of Iran whose resources and capabilities are greater by magnitudes. War on Iran is neither feasible or winnable.
     
     

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #245 on: May 07, 2025, 08:29:PM »
    And then what do you think will happen? The US and Israel understand that the retaliation that Iran could unleash even if you don't. Iran's geography(surrounded by mountains and sea), as has been pointed out before, makes it almost impossible to invade. Its vast mountainous and desert areas ideal for many impenetrable underground bases from which to retaliate massively no matter the damage elsewhere.
     Long distance warfare is what the US/UK/Israel are currently waging against AnsarAllah(Houthis) and the lack of success is plain to see. AnsarAllah similarly are protected from ground invasion by the same quirks of geography as Iran, a terrain which is suited to defensive war. This point was brutally emphasised when the US/UK/Saudi/UAE sponsored mercenaries kept getting ambushed and having their equipment taken by the Houthis every time they tried a land invasion in the recent western sponsored war on Yemen. The bombing raids are completely ineffective against the military capabilities of the Houthis who are well dug in and hidden and so are instead targeted at civilian infrastructure and populations, which is Standard Operational Procedure for Western militaries. The US Navy is being humiliated by a military with a fraction of the capabilities of Iran whose resources and capabilities are greater by magnitudes. War on Iran is neither feasible or winnable.
     
     
There was regime change in Syria. I wouldn't bet against a similar revolt in Iran.

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #246 on: May 08, 2025, 12:54:AM »
There was regime change in Syria. I wouldn't bet against a similar revolt in Iran.
    I wouldn't back the so called Syrian government(Al Jolani and his merry band of ISIS headchoppers) to last too long in Syria. US/UK/Israel dream of and encourage a regime change in Iran because they have no means to defeat them militarily. The Western Imperialists will soon retreat from West Asia, world power is shifting and it is unstoppable, Steve. The US will not for long be able to sustain their 800 or so overseas bases. New military realities have made them not defendable and extremely vulnerable. Economic realities have also caught up with the financialised and service economies of the West, largely self inflicted through the weaponisation of financial services and banking via the overused illegal sanctions thrown around like candy. The imperialists of western governments have been the architects of their, and our, own demise.
      Currently many western leaders are desperate for war with Russia because they need one to save their own traitorous, criminal arses from their own populations. Nothing like a war to cover up all the malfeasance and criminality. If there is no war western leaders know they are fucked. They have run their countries into the ground and western infrastructure now is a joke compared to most Asian countries. Our political class are the most incompetent and ill qualified in living memory and you wouldn't trust most of them to be able to run a cake stall at a local fare competently.
      Steve, the West is done, it's over. ~The majority of the world, and a sizeable chunk of the 15% of humanity in western aligned countries, celebrate this. Your enemy isn't Putin or Xi Jinping, your enemy is your own governments and political class whispering into your ear about how Putin is to blame, Assad is your enemy, China are your enemy. It's called propaganda and you are a sucker for it. We have plenty of problems to deal with at home which are being completely ignored, we don't need to invent problems abroad.
      A country that chooses to fund atrocities abroad but can't adequately fund keeping their own vulnerable populations warm is serving outside interests. It is only because of people like you supporting this that they get away with it.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #247 on: May 10, 2025, 09:47:PM »
    I wouldn't back the so called Syrian government(Al Jolani and his merry band of ISIS headchoppers) to last too long in Syria. US/UK/Israel dream of and encourage a regime change in Iran because they have no means to defeat them militarily. The Western Imperialists will soon retreat from West Asia, world power is shifting and it is unstoppable, Steve. The US will not for long be able to sustain their 800 or so overseas bases. New military realities have made them not defendable and extremely vulnerable. Economic realities have also caught up with the financialised and service economies of the West, largely self inflicted through the weaponisation of financial services and banking via the overused illegal sanctions thrown around like candy. The imperialists of western governments have been the architects of their, and our, own demise.
      Currently many western leaders are desperate for war with Russia because they need one to save their own traitorous, criminal arses from their own populations. Nothing like a war to cover up all the malfeasance and criminality. If there is no war western leaders know they are fucked. They have run their countries into the ground and western infrastructure now is a joke compared to most Asian countries. Our political class are the most incompetent and ill qualified in living memory and you wouldn't trust most of them to be able to run a cake stall at a local fare competently.
      Steve, the West is done, it's over. ~The majority of the world, and a sizeable chunk of the 15% of humanity in western aligned countries, celebrate this. Your enemy isn't Putin or Xi Jinping, your enemy is your own governments and political class whispering into your ear about how Putin is to blame, Assad is your enemy, China are your enemy. It's called propaganda and you are a sucker for it. We have plenty of problems to deal with at home which are being completely ignored, we don't need to invent problems abroad.
      A country that chooses to fund atrocities abroad but can't adequately fund keeping their own vulnerable populations warm is serving outside interests. It is only because of people like you supporting this that they get away with it.
I didn't support the Iraq war. In fact, bombing a country rarely if ever solves anything. It was more a tongue in cheek remark. However, if you believe that a country's nuclear programme represents an existential threat it wouldn't surprise me if an attack, even if it's a token attack, is imminent.

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #248 on: May 13, 2025, 03:01:PM »
I didn't support the Iraq war. In fact, bombing a country rarely if ever solves anything. It was more a tongue in cheek remark. However, if you believe that a country's nuclear programme represents an existential threat it wouldn't surprise me if an attack, even if it's a token attack, is imminent.
    You support the arming and enabling of Israel and you cheer on their bombing. You certainly give the impression that you believe bombing hospitals, schools, refugee camps etc. etc. is a solution for Israel and its western backers, albeit a "Final Solution" type of solution. As an apologist for all things NATO, you cannot be taken seriously with such a statement. Bombing is go to "NATO solution" to any and every so called "problem". "Problem" is obviously a euphemism for "a leader who refuses to do as he is told western imperialists". Your second sentence gives it away, Steve.
     "If you believe a country's nuclear programme represents an existential threat..." If who "believes"? Who decides an "existential threat" exists? On that basis, surely Iran and others have a perfectly valid reason to attack Israel. There is a substantial amount of evidence that Israel's undeclared and un-monitored nuclear programme is an existential threat to the whole region and humanity as a whole. Do you think that there should be a "token attack" on Israel's secretive, undeclared and never subject to IAEA oversight nuclear programme at Dimona?

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #249 on: May 13, 2025, 05:37:PM »
    You support the arming and enabling of Israel and you cheer on their bombing. You certainly give the impression that you believe bombing hospitals, schools, refugee camps etc. etc. is a solution for Israel and its western backers, albeit a "Final Solution" type of solution. As an apologist for all things NATO, you cannot be taken seriously with such a statement. Bombing is go to "NATO solution" to any and every so called "problem". "Problem" is obviously a euphemism for "a leader who refuses to do as he is told western imperialists". Your second sentence gives it away, Steve.
     "If you believe a country's nuclear programme represents an existential threat..." If who "believes"? Who decides an "existential threat" exists? On that basis, surely Iran and others have a perfectly valid reason to attack Israel. There is a substantial amount of evidence that Israel's undeclared and un-monitored nuclear programme is an existential threat to the whole region and humanity as a whole. Do you think that there should be a "token attack" on Israel's secretive, undeclared and never subject to IAEA oversight nuclear programme at Dimona?
The difference is that Israel, if left unprovoked, does not represent a threat to anyone outside its own borders. Have those borders been attacked by six different sources now; I've lost count. Israel is entitled to consider a hostile country's nuclear programme as an existential threat.


Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #250 on: May 13, 2025, 07:46:PM »
The difference is that Israel, if left unprovoked, does not represent a threat to anyone outside its own borders. Have those borders been attacked by six different sources now; I've lost count. Israel is entitled to consider a hostile country's nuclear programme as an existential threat.
    Is Iran entitled to consider Israeli nuclear facilities(Israel are clearly hostile to Iran) as an existential threat. Israel have attacked Iran unprovoked and have been bleating at the UN for about 40 years that Iran are six months/a year/5 minutes from developing a nuclear weapon whilst begging the US to bomb them. Surely that entitles Iran, using your logic, to bomb the shit out of Dimona.
     I would also say that Iran as signatories to the NPT along with other responsible nuclear powers are open to inspections by IAEA inspectors. Israel, on the other hand, have never signed the NPT, never declared as a nuclear power, have never had any facility inspected and given international oversight by IAEA or anyone. No one knows what the hell is going on there. They are not credible accusers. - Who is the existential threat, Steve?

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #251 on: May 13, 2025, 08:10:PM »
    Is Iran entitled to consider Israeli nuclear facilities(Israel are clearly hostile to Iran) as an existential threat. Israel have attacked Iran unprovoked and have been bleating at the UN for about 40 years that Iran are six months/a year/5 minutes from developing a nuclear weapon whilst begging the US to bomb them. Surely that entitles Iran, using your logic, to bomb the shit out of Dimona.
     I would also say that Iran as signatories to the NPT along with other responsible nuclear powers are open to inspections by IAEA inspectors. Israel, on the other hand, have never signed the NPT, never declared as a nuclear power, have never had any facility inspected and given international oversight by IAEA or anyone. No one knows what the hell is going on there. They are not credible accusers. - Who is the existential threat, Steve?
Iran is enriching uranium to a level not required for peaceful domestic purposes but to weapons-grade levels.

In 2023, Iran withdrew the designation of several experienced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, including those with expertise in uranium enrichment technology. This action, considered politically motivated by the IAEA, significantly impacts the agency's ability to verify Iran's nuclear program, particularly at enrichment facilities. The IAEA has repeatedly called on Iran to reverse these de-designations and fully cooperate, but Iran has offered to consider accepting four additional inspectors instead, excluding those previously de-designated.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
De-designation:
Iran revoked the designation of multiple IAEA inspectors, including those with specialized knowledge of uranium enrichment, which is crucial for verifying Iran's nuclear activities.
Impact on IAEA:
The removal of these inspectors hinders the IAEA's ability to conduct effective inspections and verify Iran's nuclear program, particularly at enrichment facilities.
IAEA Response:
The IAEA has expressed concern and requested Iran to reverse the de-designation, emphasizing the importance of cooperation in ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program.
Iran's Offer:
Iran has offered to accept four additional inspectors, but this does not address the initial issue of the de-designated inspectors, according to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).
Iran's de-designation of experienced IAEA inspectors ...

« Last Edit: May 13, 2025, 08:11:PM by Steve_uk »

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #252 on: May 13, 2025, 09:07:PM »
Iran is enriching uranium to a level not required for peaceful domestic purposes but to weapons-grade levels.

In 2023, Iran withdrew the designation of several experienced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, including those with expertise in uranium enrichment technology. This action, considered politically motivated by the IAEA, significantly impacts the agency's ability to verify Iran's nuclear program, particularly at enrichment facilities. The IAEA has repeatedly called on Iran to reverse these de-designations and fully cooperate, but Iran has offered to consider accepting four additional inspectors instead, excluding those previously de-designated.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
De-designation:
Iran revoked the designation of multiple IAEA inspectors, including those with specialized knowledge of uranium enrichment, which is crucial for verifying Iran's nuclear activities.
Impact on IAEA:
The removal of these inspectors hinders the IAEA's ability to conduct effective inspections and verify Iran's nuclear program, particularly at enrichment facilities.
IAEA Response:
The IAEA has expressed concern and requested Iran to reverse the de-designation, emphasizing the importance of cooperation in ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program.
Iran's Offer:
Iran has offered to accept four additional inspectors, but this does not address the initial issue of the de-designated inspectors, according to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).
Iran's de-designation of experienced IAEA inspectors ...
   An AI generated response  :-[

     The de-designation of a number of IAEA inspectors was appropriate, from the point of view of Iran, and massively mis-represented by those with hostile intent to Iran. Noticeable in your response is the absence of much key information, such as reasons for de-designation and how many inspectors were de-designated and how many inspectors are in total available. Had you known these relevant factors, it should have led you to a number of other questions if you were the least bit intellectually curious.
      You would, had you been curious enough, have discovered that Iran removed the verification of three inspectors, Steve. 3 out of 127, Steve. Why were they removed?, you might ask, or should. Did Iran give any reasons?, and if so what are those reasons? According to Iran;

We removed inspectors from the list who were nationals of countries that show harsh political behavior toward the Islamic Republic,” said Mohammad Eslami, who leads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).[/i]"

    Iran have made clear that other inspectors can be appointed. There are many available but the Western powers are playing politics and merely continuing their decades old policy of aggression and threats towards Iran. If you were curious enough and asked enough questions, you would discover this.

    At this point, in judging whether this is reasonable behaviour from Iran, you should consider the following; Would you consider UK, US, France reasonable in de-designating Iranian IAEA inspectors from inspecting their facilities?  It was the US who tore up the JCPOA, western powers have been consistently hostile to Iran (sanctions, threats). If you represented Iran, would you trust inspectors from such hostile countries? Other inspectors are available. None, however, have ever inspected Israel's undeclared facilities. No pressure from western countries is raised on this issue and any international efforts are blocked by western powers. Why are they apparently so untroubled by this nuclear arsenal in the possession of a country that has the "Samson Option" as a defence strategy?, but apparently troubled by Iran's non existent arsenal and openness to inspection.
     

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #253 on: May 14, 2025, 06:55:PM »
   An AI generated response  :-[

     The de-designation of a number of IAEA inspectors was appropriate, from the point of view of Iran, and massively mis-represented by those with hostile intent to Iran. Noticeable in your response is the absence of much key information, such as reasons for de-designation and how many inspectors were de-designated and how many inspectors are in total available. Had you known these relevant factors, it should have led you to a number of other questions if you were the least bit intellectually curious.
      You would, had you been curious enough, have discovered that Iran removed the verification of three inspectors, Steve. 3 out of 127, Steve. Why were they removed?, you might ask, or should. Did Iran give any reasons?, and if so what are those reasons? According to Iran;

We removed inspectors from the list who were nationals of countries that show harsh political behavior toward the Islamic Republic,” said Mohammad Eslami, who leads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).[/i]"

    Iran have made clear that other inspectors can be appointed. There are many available but the Western powers are playing politics and merely continuing their decades old policy of aggression and threats towards Iran. If you were curious enough and asked enough questions, you would discover this.

    At this point, in judging whether this is reasonable behaviour from Iran, you should consider the following; Would you consider UK, US, France reasonable in de-designating Iranian IAEA inspectors from inspecting their facilities?  It was the US who tore up the JCPOA, western powers have been consistently hostile to Iran (sanctions, threats). If you represented Iran, would you trust inspectors from such hostile countries? Other inspectors are available. None, however, have ever inspected Israel's undeclared facilities. No pressure from western countries is raised on this issue and any international efforts are blocked by western powers. Why are they apparently so untroubled by this nuclear arsenal in the possession of a country that has the "Samson Option" as a defence strategy?, but apparently troubled by Iran's non existent arsenal and openness to inspection.
     
I never use it. Here is Trump discussing the subject: https://www.jns.org/by-recognizing-israel-youll-be-greatly-honoring-me-trump-tells-saudis/?utm_campaign=Daily%20Syndicate%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-99RaEt1wmep4FNff_lAIUwF-2cfbeYl279PrNp5vsIbNwnR-ltP1CwsMMP3HL2RaKOXBtmiDGKNnERKIecPMt_TefH8jRdyWVM6m3xonyk3K9jQtM&_hsmi=109465790&utm_content=109465790&utm_source=hs_email

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #254 on: May 15, 2025, 01:49:AM »
An AI generated response  :-[


I never use it. Here is Trump discussing the subject: https://www.jns.org/by-recognizing-israel-youll-be-greatly-honoring-me-trump-tells-saudis/?utm_campaign=Daily%20Syndicate%20Emails&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-99RaEt1wmep4FNff_lAIUwF-2cfbeYl279PrNp5vsIbNwnR-ltP1CwsMMP3HL2RaKOXBtmiDGKNnERKIecPMt_TefH8jRdyWVM6m3xonyk3K9jQtM&_hsmi=109465790&utm_content=109465790&utm_source=hs_email
    Steve, the entire response that you gave was AI generated. It is the verbatim script of google AI overview. By googling, "Iran bans IAEA inspectors", the first result is the AI overview which you have simply copy/pasted. I could tell it was AI generated before googling it by the soulless writing and the limited and biased sources that it obviously relied on. AI is extremely limited and no substitute for human intelligence. Anyone can google this and will see your word for word response. This is why you are unable to conduct a proper discussion. You know too little to answer any questions posed to you and lack the intellectual curiosity to better inform yourself. You cannot coherently articulate your own thoughts on the subject because you don't know enough to have your own thoughts, which is why an AI bot can speak for you. You need to ask intelligent questions of anything that you read, question the premise on which an argument is made, do your own fact checking. If you are too intellectually lazy for all of this, Zero Intelligence AI is not an adequate substitute.
     The second part of your response is a complete non sequitur. A link to an article about Trump meeting the Saudis and asking them to recognise Israel has nothing to do with the subject being discussed. You were responding to comments regarding IAEA inspections and Iran's supposed nuclear threat. Your responses only demonstrate to anyone reading how far out of your depth you are.
      You gave a ten word response and a link. The first four words self evidently untrue, oh and so were the next six and the link had no relevance to the subject matter either.  Give it up, you are drowning.