Iranian Strike

[David1819]

   None, however, have ever inspected Israel's undeclared facilities. No pressure from western countries is raised on this issue and any international efforts are blocked by western powers.
     

That is not correct.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/documents/duplicity-deception-self-deception-israel-united-states-dimona-inspections-1964-65/Haaretz-article.pdf

[David1819]

     Any attack on Iran would result in every US base in the Middle East being destroyed and any Aircraft carrier group sunk. Israel would do even worse than that and would cease to exist.

Which is why none of that happened when Israel did indeed Attack Iran



There is only one type of military in (theoretical/speculative) existence that can wipe the floor with the US military like you are describing (fantasising about) and it wouldn't be in your interest if they carried it out.   

https://youtu.be/F6NBE6THBCI?feature=shared&t=8

[Roch]

Which is why none of that happened when Israel did indeed Attack Iran



There is only one type of military in (theoretical/speculative) existence that can wipe the floor with the US military like you are describing (fantasising about) and it wouldn't be in your interest if they carried it out.   

https://youtu.be/F6NBE6THBCI?feature=shared&t=8

Preparation for True Promise III began after that last Israeli attack. 

US generals have war-gamed a US / Iran conflict and concluded it was not winnable.

No doubt the US could cause immense damage from the air. But not without risk to its own bases in middle east.

Houthis have just evaded THAAD and Iron Dome etc.

[gringo]

 If you represented Iran, would you trust inspectors from such hostile countries? Other inspectors are available. None, however, have ever inspected Israel's undeclared facilities. No pressure from western countries is raised on this issue and any international efforts are blocked by western powers.

That is not correct.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/documents/duplicity-deception-self-deception-israel-united-states-dimona-inspections-1964-65/Haaretz-article.pdf

     It is correct, David. The article that you linked to emphasises my point rather than corrects it.  To be clear, the entire discussion was about IAEA inspectors and oversight and the related fact of Israel's undeclared status and lack of inspection/oversight, which your link doesn't address, never mind challenge. The point that you think you have made, (ie. that Israel has had inspections) isn't true and the article makes clear that Israel have avoided any oversight. The limited "visit" that was allowed by US State Dept at the "invitation" of the Israelis barred access to reactors and other sensitive sites. And that was in 1965. The US State Dept communications make this unequivocally clear.
     The US State Dept is not the IAEA and nor do they oversee NPT compliance, which Israel isn't party to anyway. The fact remains, David. Israel's nuclear facilities are undeclared and not open to any international oversight. This is not even a disputed fact by anyone and your attempted rebuttal establishes the point. Your attempt to dispute such a known fact does you no credit.

[David1819]

Preparation for True Promise III began after that last Israeli attack. 

And it never materialised because they knew what would happen.


“The more you f*ck around, the more you’re going to find out." - Roger Skaer

[Roch]

And it never materialised because they knew what would happen.


“The more you f*ck around, the more you’re going to find out." - Roger Skaer

Israel have a very competent air force. Iran has thousands upon thousands of missiles and drones. Both countries have air defence systems. Both countries probably have electronic jamming technology. Iran is vast. Israel by comparison is tiny. I think Iran could cause devastation in specific areas of Israel, if it mass targeted those areas. In the long run I think Iran would win. Israel's population are not used to witnessing mass devastation in their own country.

[David1819]

Israel have a very competent air force. Iran has thousands upon thousands of missiles and drones. Both countries have air defence systems. Both countries probably have electronic jamming technology. Iran is vast. Israel by comparison is tiny. I think Iran could cause devastation in specific areas of Israel, if it mass targeted those areas. In the long run I think Iran would win. Israel's population are not used to witnessing mass devastation in their own country.

All out war between Israel and Iran is never going to happen. The type of missiles that Iran uses cost anywhere between 500k and 1.5 million each. With a 95+% interception rate, its not financially viable. And they achieve nothing.

They could have sold all those rockets to Russia and built a dozen new schools or hospitals.

[gringo]

Israel have a very competent air force. Iran has thousands upon thousands of missiles and drones. Both countries have air defence systems. Both countries probably have electronic jamming technology. Iran is vast. Israel by comparison is tiny. I think Iran could cause devastation in specific areas of Israel, if it mass targeted those areas. In the long run I think Iran would win. Israel's population are not used to witnessing mass devastation in their own country.

    All true, Roch. Iran's advantages over Israel are vast. Israel's Air Force however cannot penetrate Iran's defences as they found out on their last venture. Iran's missiles, on the other hand can and have, easily overcome Israel Air Defence. David fails to understand, and doesn't attempt to understand the strategies, moves and countermoves that have unfolded over the years. If you seek confirmation bias then that is what you will find, which is exactly what David does.
     To address David's latest piece of misinformation in which he claims, via the notoriously unreliable ISW, that Israel attacked Iran without consequence. Much like his claim of international oversight and inspections at Dimona-it never happened. The failed aborted attack was much discussed at the time and it is clear that Israeli jets turned back before entering Iranian airspace after being locked onto by Iranian AD. The ordnance that the Israeli's prematurely dropped before turning tail was found all over neighbouring countries. There is no evidence provided by the Israelis of anything hit, no footage, pictures or anything and what was released was soon identified as old footage from elsewhere.

https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/israel-attack-iran-failure/

     The longer term strategy of Iran, for the wilfully obtuse such as David and Steve, is to make the US presence in the Middle East untenable. With US withdrawal, then Israel becomes untenable. Iran don't want hot war, not because they couldn't win it-they could and would but it would also be hugely damaging to them and any victory would be the epitome of a Pyrrhic victory. The longer term attritional strategy is to gradually bleed out the enemy whilst always carrying enough threat to prevent the enemy launching a hot war. It is clear to objective observers that the threat posed by Empire is massive air power and equally clear that this threat has been neutralised and countered by superior Air Defence and missile technology. Now it's just a matter of strategic patience.

   

[David1819]

    All true, Roch. Iran's advantages over Israel are vast. Israel's Air Force however cannot penetrate Iran's defences as they found out on their last venture. Iran's missiles, on the other hand can and have, easily overcome Israel Air Defence. David fails to understand, and doesn't attempt to understand the strategies, moves and countermoves that have unfolded over the years. If you seek confirmation bias then that is what you will find, which is exactly what David does.
     To address David's latest piece of misinformation in which he claims, via the notoriously unreliable ISW, that Israel attacked Iran without consequence. Much like his claim of international oversight and inspections at Dimona-it never happened. The failed aborted attack was much discussed at the time and it is clear that Israeli jets turned back before entering Iranian airspace after being locked onto by Iranian AD. The ordnance that the Israeli's prematurely dropped before turning tail was found all over neighbouring countries. There is no evidence provided by the Israelis of anything hit, no footage, pictures or anything and what was released was soon identified as old footage from elsewhere.

https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/israel-attack-iran-failure/

     The longer term strategy of Iran, for the wilfully obtuse such as David and Steve, is to make the US presence in the Middle East untenable. With US withdrawal, then Israel becomes untenable. Iran don't want hot war, not because they couldn't win it-they could and would but it would also be hugely damaging to them and any victory would be the epitome of a Pyrrhic victory. The longer term attritional strategy is to gradually bleed out the enemy whilst always carrying enough threat to prevent the enemy launching a hot war. It is clear to objective observers that the threat posed by Empire is massive air power and equally clear that this threat has been neutralised and countered by superior Air Defence and missile technology. Now it's just a matter of strategic patience.

   

Well of course the facts reported will conflict with your geopolitical fantasy world. But this is nothing unexpected.

[David1819]

  The failed aborted attack was much discussed at the time and it is clear that Israeli jets turned back before entering Iranian airspace after being locked onto by Iranian AD. The ordnance that the Israeli's prematurely dropped before turning tail was found all over neighbouring countries. There is no evidence provided by the Israelis of anything hit, no footage, pictures or anything and what was released was soon identified as old footage from elsewhere.

🤡


"Tehran, IRNA - Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in a gathering of the families of the recent martyrs of the Air Defense Force said that the martyrdom of these loved ones is an outstanding and important martyrdom due to the defense of the country and the nation in direct confrontation with the Zionist regime.

In the meeting with the families of the martyrs of the Air Defense Force who were martyred in the recent attack of the Zionist regime, the Supreme Leader considered the position of these martyrs to be great"


https://en.irna.ir/news/85648547/Supreme-Leader-meets-families-of-Israeli-attack-martyrs


"Tehran, SANA- The number of martyrs in the treacherous Israeli aggression that targeted several sites in Iran early Saturday has risen to four, the Iranian army announced.

“Two more soldiers have succumbed to wounds sustained in the Zionist aggression on the territory of the Islamic Republic,” Iranian news agency (IRNA) quoted the army as saying in a statement Saturday."

[gringo]

🤡


"Tehran, IRNA - Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in a gathering of the families of the recent martyrs of the Air Defense Force said that the martyrdom of these loved ones is an outstanding and important martyrdom due to the defense of the country and the nation in direct confrontation with the Zionist regime.

In the meeting with the families of the martyrs of the Air Defense Force who were martyred in the recent attack of the Zionist regime, the Supreme Leader considered the position of these martyrs to be great"


https://en.irna.ir/news/85648547/Supreme-Leader-meets-families-of-Israeli-attack-martyrs


"Tehran, SANA- The number of martyrs in the treacherous Israeli aggression that targeted several sites in Iran early Saturday has risen to four, the Iranian army announced.

“Two more soldiers have succumbed to wounds sustained in the Zionist aggression on the territory of the Islamic Republic,” Iranian news agency (IRNA) quoted the army as saying in a statement Saturday."

   The reported and evidenced facts are that the attempted aggression was a huge failure. One A/D installation and four dead is testament to this. The overhyped F35’s turned tail when it became apparent that they weren’t that stealthy when confronting serious air defence and didn’t enter Iranian air space. Your failure to understand the strategic balance and western military shortcomings blinds you and renders your contributions worthles

[David1819]

   The reported and evidenced facts are that the attempted aggression was a huge failure. One A/D installation and four dead is testament to this. The overhyped F35’s turned tail when it became apparent that they weren’t that stealthy when confronting serious air defence and didn’t enter Iranian air space. Your failure to understand the strategic balance and western military shortcomings blinds you and renders your contributions worthles

The fact the Iranians themselves have confirmed military losses from Israeli strikes, failed to shoot down any Israeli jets and backed down from launching a third attack (despite promising to do so) is all the proof you are living in a fantasy world. And all the proof the Israeli objective was met (to deter Iran from doing it again).

[Steve_uk]

An AI generated response 

    Steve, the entire response that you gave was AI generated. It is the verbatim script of google AI overview. By googling, "Iran bans IAEA inspectors", the first result is the AI overview which you have simply copy/pasted. I could tell it was AI generated before googling it by the soulless writing and the limited and biased sources that it obviously relied on. AI is extremely limited and no substitute for human intelligence. Anyone can google this and will see your word for word response. This is why you are unable to conduct a proper discussion. You know too little to answer any questions posed to you and lack the intellectual curiosity to better inform yourself. You cannot coherently articulate your own thoughts on the subject because you don't know enough to have your own thoughts, which is why an AI bot can speak for you. You need to ask intelligent questions of anything that you read, question the premise on which an argument is made, do your own fact checking. If you are too intellectually lazy for all of this, Zero Intelligence AI is not an adequate substitute.
     The second part of your response is a complete non sequitur. A link to an article about Trump meeting the Saudis and asking them to recognise Israel has nothing to do with the subject being discussed. You were responding to comments regarding IAEA inspections and Iran's supposed nuclear threat. Your responses only demonstrate to anyone reading how far out of your depth you are.
      You gave a ten word response and a link. The first four words self evidently untrue, oh and so were the next six and the link had no relevance to the subject matter either.  Give it up, you are drowning.

I had no idea the article was AI generated. I quoted something I read. As for Trump, it's relevant because he repeats Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Quite how this will occur I assume economic pressure will be applied first.

As for being out of my depth, I suggest you revise your comments on all the totalitarian regimes you support before you start casting aspersions on others, or, as Matthew 7:5 puts it:

Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye? [5] Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.

[gringo]

The fact the Iranians themselves have confirmed military losses from Israeli strikes, failed to shoot down any Israeli jets and backed down from launching a third attack (despite promising to do so) is all the proof you are living in a fantasy world. And all the proof the Israeli objective was met (to deter Iran from doing it again).

    The Iranians didn't shoot down jets because they didn't enter Iranian airspace. Clearly the whole venture was not to take out one A/D (out of 100's). How many jets were involved? Why were their bombs found in neighbouring countries? Why was nothing other than one A/D installation damaged? No Israeli jet entered Iranian airspace and they would have been shot down the moment that they did. There is zero evidence that Israel hit anything other than that 1 AD system/zero evidence of anything else damaged and the whole story is just cope.
      You are free to believe that US/Israel can enter Iranian airspace but there is no evidence they have, apart from the 200 million dollar plus US Global Hawk that Iran did shoot down the moment it strayed into Iranian airspace in 2019. There is also the added factor that neighbouring countries have since stated that they will no longer allow their airspace to be used by Israel to attack Iran. If allowing their airspace to be used in future they will be treated as co belligerents and targeted. There is a whole chess game going on, David, diplomatically, militarily, politically and economically which sails over your head. Israel are desperate to drag the US and company into war because without them, their days are numbered. The US, if dragged in, won't save Israel, they will go down with them.

[Roch]

    The Iranians didn't shoot down jets because they didn't enter Iranian airspace. Clearly the whole venture was not to take out one A/D (out of 100's). How many jets were involved? Why were their bombs found in neighbouring countries? Why was nothing other than one A/D installation damaged? No Israeli jet entered Iranian airspace and they would have been shot down the moment that they did. There is zero evidence that Israel hit anything other than that 1 AD system/zero evidence of anything else damaged and the whole story is just cope.
      You are free to believe that US/Israel can enter Iranian airspace but there is no evidence they have, apart from the 200 million dollar plus US Global Hawk that Iran did shoot down the moment it strayed into Iranian airspace in 2019. There is also the added factor that neighbouring countries have since stated that they will no longer allow their airspace to be used by Israel to attack Iran. If allowing their airspace to be used in future they will be treated as co belligerents and targeted. There is a whole chess game going on, David, diplomatically, militarily, politically and economically which sails over your head. Israel are desperate to drag the US and company into war because without them, their days are numbered. The US, if dragged in, won't save Israel, they will go down with them.

This is my understanding also. I've been watching a lot of stuff on this..