Author Topic: A Jeremy Scenario  (Read 21419 times)

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Offline Armchair Detective

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #300 on: January 03, 2022, 09:36:PM »
I seem to be getting forgetful! I thought the police admitted spilling the sugar?

But if it was all over the floor, PV to my knowledge made no mention of sugar on Nevil's feet?

That's a good point. Others may know better but I don't recall sugar being on Nevill's feet and I don't think he was wearing socks or slippers?
"When ignorant folks want to advertise their ignorance, you don't really have to do anything, just let them talk" - Barack Obama

guest29835

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #301 on: January 03, 2022, 11:34:PM »
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

Offline Armchair Detective

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #302 on: January 04, 2022, 12:03:AM »
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

This same discussion appears to be on two current threads.

I agree, there doesn't need to be any "struggle" or "fight" in the kitchen, If an injured Nevill is being closely followed by the killer and takes a whack to the head knocking him down, it's game over. The smashed light and scratches on the aga can be explained without anybody struggling over the gun.

On the one hand yes, it would seem odd for Nevill to just run off downstairs leaving the killer with June, not knowing if the killer would follow ( whether he knew they were out of ammo or not ) but on the other hand, Nevill had been shot and was badly hurt already. Who knows what he had been confronted with? A masked man with a gun? Maybe he got cocked on the head with the butt of the rifle as he tries to confront the killer. Maybe his survival instinct kicked in and there was no thought involved.

IMO it is much less likely that he runs downstairs from Sheila.
"When ignorant folks want to advertise their ignorance, you don't really have to do anything, just let them talk" - Barack Obama

guest29835

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #303 on: January 04, 2022, 12:10:AM »
This same discussion appears to be on two current threads.

I agree, there doesn't need to be any "struggle" or "fight" in the kitchen, If an injured Nevill is being closely followed by the killer and takes a whack to the head knocking him down, it's game over. The smashed light and scratches on the aga can be explained without anybody struggling over the gun.

On the one hand yes, it would seem odd for Nevill to just run off downstairs leaving the killer with June, not knowing if the killer would follow ( whether he knew they were out of ammo or not ) but on the other hand, Nevill had been shot and was badly hurt already. Who knows what he had been confronted with? A masked man with a gun? Maybe he got cocked on the head with the butt of the rifle as he tries to confront the killer. Maybe his survival instinct kicked in and there was no thought involved.

IMO it is much less likely that he runs downstairs from Sheila.

If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #304 on: January 04, 2022, 12:29:AM »
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Nevill got hit on the head in the kitchen. Multiple times. Together with the face, arms & torso.

He died there.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #305 on: January 04, 2022, 12:30:AM »
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Fleeing from a shooting gun man.

Probable. Not improbable.

The evidence shows it happened.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #306 on: January 04, 2022, 12:32:AM »
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Apart from -

He was bare footed in his bed attire.

His bed was upstairs.

It was 2am.

He was shot 4 times in the main bedroom.


But keep with your scenario.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #307 on: January 04, 2022, 12:35:AM »
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

Yes Bamber does run out of ammunition upstairs. The rifle held 11 bullets. Not 30.

I will post my scenario again. It matches the crime scene. Yours doesn't.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

guest29835

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #308 on: January 04, 2022, 12:36:AM »
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #309 on: January 04, 2022, 12:37:AM »
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom. The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

How would I know? But the evidence shows Nevill went downstsirs.

Maybe because Bamber had shot him 4 times.

Or maybe Bamber went downstairs to re load. Confident Nevill was negated. Nevill followed him. More doubtful in my view.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #310 on: January 04, 2022, 12:39:AM »
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

The hallway carpets were not tested.
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

guest29835

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #311 on: January 04, 2022, 12:39:AM »
Yes Bamber does run out of ammunition upstairs. The rifle held 11 bullets. Not 30.

I will post my scenario again. It matches the crime scene. Yours doesn't.

Please, if you wish to post your scenario again, could you do so on your own thread?  No scenario in this case is going to be without problems.  I believe the scenarios I have posted do match the crime scene.

I know the rifle held 30 bullets and I have Jeremy re-loading in my scenario.  Why do you lie and twist what people say?

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #312 on: January 04, 2022, 12:40:AM »
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

Because he had been shot 4 times & Bamber was young & fit?
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

guest29835

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #313 on: January 04, 2022, 12:42:AM »
The hallway carpets were not tested.

The carpets either have visible blood on them or they don't.  DCI Jones did record his observation of specks of what appeared to be blood on the main stair carpet in his pocketbook, when he was examining the scene on the morning of the 7th., but these was not tested - probably because the traces were not susceptible to testing, as I am sure SOC officers would have noticed it.

Offline Adam

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Re: A Jeremy Scenario
« Reply #314 on: January 04, 2022, 12:42:AM »
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

What problems?

We can't accept it. The evidence shows Nevill was shot 4 times in his bedroom.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2022, 12:43:AM by Adam »
'Only I know what really happened that night'.