A Jeremy Scenario

[killingeve]

I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

Yes the rifle is low calibre but I have provided you with all the techncial details showing the lethality.  Why do you think the Dickinson report states the following at point 128 if the rifle is mere child's play?

[guest29835]

Yes the rifle is low calibre but I have provided you with all the techncial details showing the lethality.  Why do you think the Dickinson report states the following at point 128 if the rifle is mere child's play?

I'm glad you've posted all the 'technical details' concerning lethality, but I don't see what point you're making or how any of it contradicts what I have said?  I have not denied that the rifle is lethal.  I think I have stated the opposite, actually.  At the least, I have provided a scenario in which the rifle is the weapon used to kill five people.  I have also mentioned that there are complex factors affecting lethality.  But I maintain what I originally said: a magazine for a low calibre rifle would be fully-loaded by a premeditated killer because he would know that the lethality of low calibre weapons, while by all means resting on complex factors, ultimately is lower than high calibre weapons.  The .22 rifle is not designed for combat.

Nearly all your posts come across as expressing a need to pick a point to argue with me about, simply because you want an argument, not because you have anything to say that adds to what I broadly already know.  You accuse me of saying things or making arguments I haven't really said by creating a slightly twisted misunderstanding of my statements, and then try to disprove the argument that you invented and I never made in the first place. 

[killingeve]

As with much of what you say on here, you are half-clever.

The position of the spent cartridges found can only be considered a rough guide, at best.  Quite simply, there is no reliable evidence that Nevill was shot upstairs or that he went upstairs at all that night.

If Mr Bamber wasn't shot upstairs and the twins sustained 8 gunshot wounds, June also sustained 8 and Sheila 2 can you please explain how a total of 22 casings were found upstairs? 

I don't accept that a bullet or bullet hole in a pillow proves that June was shot while still in bed.  The bed was in the line of sight of shots, and bullets can hid the bed as well as they can hit people.

Its up to you what you believe but all the pathological, forensic and ballistic evidence supports the fact June sustained 2 gunshot wounds whilst her head was on her pillow and a further 4 gunshot wounds as she lifted herself out of bed.

I do not say that a low calibre rifle is non-lethal, but low calibre is typically not as lethal as high calibre.  Obviously it's not simple as there are factors to consider, but calibre of the murder weapon will always be relevant.  As will range of shot and bullet type.  I think Jeremy would have had enough ballistic nous to understand that with a .22 rifle, he needed it fully-loaded and he needed all his targets except Sheila to be in bed, with shots to the head at reasonably close range, while at the same time allowing that he was staging Sheila running amok and needed to bear that in mind too.

I have provided you with all the techncial details regarding the lethality of the rifle.  A marksman like Bamber could easily kill each victim with a single gunshot wound to the head.  (You also need to factor in the type of bullet used ie hollow point.  These are described as mini food mixers whizzing around inside the body.)  He would know this would be way beyond Sheila's capability and therefore went for overkill to make it look amateurish and frenzied.  The magazine for the shotgun only held 3 cartridges.  The recoil for Sheila would probably send her flying.  The sound would probably wake up those in the neighbouring cottages - you can't fit a silencer to a shotgun.  It would also generate a lot of blood and gore which Bamber obviously wanted to avoid on his person and the possibility of leaving footprints.

This explains the shots to the twins, which were executed efficiently.  The others were not, but he had taken the precaution of filling the magazine.  Frankly, it would have been daft for him to just put half a magazine in.

The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi.

Wasted bullets means bullets that did not hit their target.  There were some.

All 26 shots hit the victims.  1 to June was non-penetrating. 

I don't recall you providing mathematical calculations of your own based on physics, but you may have done.  I remember a post from you in which you provided figures from Eley.  By all means, if you link back to the post, I will look at it again.  I can't remember what I said about it when I saw it.

I provided figures which you doubted and asked how I had arrived at them.  I then provided all the back up.  Use the search facility by entering 'joules'. 

[Rob_]

I am not sure I agree with this Cc:

"The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi."

So you are saying JB planned to let Nevil escape downstairs to the Kitchen? How is the phone call a alibi? I have read a load of posts from the guilters recently saying it proves his guilt, talk about having it both ways!

JB would have avoided a confrontation with Nevil at all costs, and he would not let him get anywhere near a phone.

[Adam]

There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?

As said Bamber had lived & worked in the area. But only for about 15 years.

[Adam]

If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse. Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.

Eh?

[Adam]

QC is saying Bamber stole June's bike before the massacre.

Then brought it back to WHF.

Then walked to WHF & cycled back.

But his choice.

[guest29835]

I am not sure I agree with this Cc:

"The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi."

So you are saying JB planned to let Nevil escape downstairs to the Kitchen? How is the phone call a alibi? I have read a load of posts from the guilters recently saying it proves his guilt, talk about having it both ways!

JB would have avoided a confrontation with Nevil at all costs, and he would not let him get anywhere near a phone.

If Jeremy is guilty, then he shot (began shooting) Nevill where he found him.  Simple.  Period.  I also believe that the only way a Jeremy scenario can work is if Nevill is already downstairs.

Forcing, luring or persuading Nevill to come downstairs does not work, for the following reasons:

1. It's inherently risky and open-ended.
2. There is no reason to do it. 
3. It is not necessary in order to stage Sheila running amok.
4. Nevill would ask why Jeremy is in the house at all, since the doors are locked from the inside.
5. Jeremy would not be a guest there, as he then immediately incriminates himself if anyone outside the farmhouse discovers the fact.

[Adam]

If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse.  Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.

Source please. Second request.

[guest29835]

QC is saying Bamber stole June's bike before the massacre.

Then brought it back to WHF.

Then walked to WHF & cycled back.

But his choice.

No, I have not said this.  He can't have stolen it and left it outside for all the world to see on the 4th.

[Adam]

No, I have not said this.  He can't have stolen it and left it outside for all the world to see on the 4th.

Julie saw it.

[Adam]

It is pretty clear Bamber cycled to & from WHF. Using one or a combination of the 3 available routes.

Not sure why people complicate things.

[guest29835]

If Mr Bamber wasn't shot upstairs and the twins sustained 8 gunshot wounds, June also sustained 8 and Sheila 2 can you please explain how a total of 22 casings were found upstairs?

I have already explained, earlier in the thread.  Read it, or use your imagination.

Its up to you what you believe but all the pathological, forensic and ballistic evidence supports the fact June sustained 2 gunshot wounds whilst her head was on her pillow and a further 4 gunshot wounds as she lifted herself out of bed.

As you say, it's up to me what I believe.  And I don't consider you any sort of authority on the case.
 

I have provided you with all the techncial details regarding the lethality of the rifle.  A marksman like Bamber could easily kill each victim with a single gunshot wound to the head. 

Then why didn't he?  Since Sheila could do the same.

(You also need to factor in the type of bullet used ie hollow point.  These are described as mini food mixers whizzing around inside the body.)  He would know this would be way beyond Sheila's capability and therefore went for overkill to make it look amateurish and frenzied.  The magazine for the shotgun only held 3 cartridges.  The recoil for Sheila would probably send her flying.  The sound would probably wake up those in the neighbouring cottages - you can't fit a silencer to a shotgun.  It would also generate a lot of blood and gore which Bamber obviously wanted to avoid on his person and the possibility of leaving footprints.

I'm still not clear what point you are trying to make, sorry.  It may help if I mention that I am already aware of all this and have mentioned most of it in my own posts, as have others.

The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi.

I believe you are wrong about this, for the reasons given in outline above, and in the scenario itself.

All 26 shots hit the victims.  1 to June was non-penetrating. 

I disagree.  Apart from the ballistics record stating to the contrary, we simply don't know that all bullets were recovered.  Anyway, even if all shots were on target, so what?  The shooter was working at close range.

I provided figures which you doubted and asked how I had arrived at them.  I then provided all the back up.  Use the search facility by entering 'joules'.

My recollection is that I did not doubt your figures necessarily, I merely asked for your source. 

[Adam]

Don't blame him for cycling. I wouldn't want to walk 6 miles.

[Rob_]

If Jeremy is guilty, then he shot (began shooting) Nevill where he found him.  Simple.  Period.  I also believe that the only way a Jeremy scenario can work is if Nevill is already downstairs.

Forcing, luring or persuading Nevill to come downstairs does not work, for the following reasons:

1. It's inherently risky and open-ended.
2. There is no reason to do it. 
3. It is not necessary in order to stage Sheila running amok.
4. Nevill would ask why Jeremy is in the house at all, since the doors are locked from the inside.
5. Jeremy would not be a guest there, as he then immediately incriminates himself if anyone outside the farmhouse discovers the fact.

Thanks QC I totally agree, I just don't understand the guilters arguments they seem to forget that JB is trying not to get caught!