Jeremy Bamber Forum
OFF TOPIC => Russia/Ukraine/Nato => Topic started by: gringo on July 06, 2023, 12:55:AM
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There is a simple answer to the question but will add some meat to it. Others are welcome to add more.
The simple answer- It is war, not a game of Top Trumps.
NATO proponents in order to demonstrate "NATO superiority" over Russia resort to silly comparisons of this or that number of planes, men, money whatever. Just like a game of Top Trumps. If it was a game of Top Trumps, then I agree, NATO win hands down. I'm sure that it is beyond dispute that NATO are superior to Russia, in a game of Top Trumps.
Unfortunately for NATO, that is where their "superiority" ends. The pretence that Russia are struggling to defeat Ukraine and would be "obliterated" by NATO is fantasy on many levels. Russia are already fighting NATO in Ukraine and confirming what every war gamed scenario ever commissioned by NATO has shown; ie. Russia cannot be defeated by conventional means in a land war in Europe.
Currently "Ukraine" is armed by, funded by, trained by and provided with all C4ISR intel via US/UK AWACS planes. On top of this are many supposed mercenaries who are all "ex" servicemen of NATO militaries. Targeting and intel provided by NATO. Russia are already fighting NATO and whatever escalations are thrown at Russia, they just carry on grinding away. The rate of attrition is horrendously one sided as one would expect with such an imbalance in shells, missiles, military hardware and logistic lines. It is an agreed fact that Russia are firing somewhere between 8 to 10 shells for every one Ukrainian/NATO shell and acknowledged that 65/70% of casualties/deaths are the result of artillery. It is impossible to believe that the rate of attrition in manpower does not reflect these battleground realities.
The Russians are penetrating the deep rear of Ukraine with so called Geranium drones, guided glide bombs and missiles destroying weapons stocks and troop concentrations before they get anywhere near any Russians. The current "so called" Ukrainian counter offensive has been a disaster. Men and equipment being destroyed in what is a slaughter, without even reaching the first of three Russian defence echelons. What isn't destroyed by mines is mercilessly pounded in fire zones in the "grey area" stretching kilometres in front of the first echelon of Russian defensive lines by artillery, anti tank guided missiles or destroyed by KA52 attack helicopters operating out of range of Ukrainian counter measures and acting with impunity.
What else could NATO do to defeat Russia in a land war in Europe?
Beyond whatever is the claimed number of active personnel and equipment available to NATO in a Top Trumps game, how real would this figure be in an actual war? Who believes that the two largest standing armies in NATO would put "boots on the ground" in this NATO v Russia war in Europe? The largest army (the US) would not politically be able to send the hundreds of thousands of troops required(too many would rapidly be returned to sender). Turkey (the second largest standing army in NATO)? Good luck with that ::) What rag tag bunch of insignificant militaries in NATO outside the two largest armies are sending all of these troops? How are they getting there in an openly declared Russia/NATO war where Russia get to use the toys saved for this very scenario? Would their publics tolerate the body bags.
Russia aren't Iraq. They can easily prevent build up on their border by sinking the ships and shooting down the planes before they arrive. Russia, on the other hand, have a somewhat easier logistic chain.
There are other equally self evident reasons that mean the result of any conventional NATO/Russia war in Europe ends in inevitable Russian victory. NATO leadership are aware of this having war gamed the scenario many times. No military in the world knows how to defend better than Russia. This is objectively true. The only way for NATO to win? is to somehow be able to launch a decapitating first nuclear strike on Russia taking out most of their retaliation ability. This is not possible and utterly mad but Western leadership is clearly compromised and psychopathic. They are also in a hopeless position.
Like I say, It isn't a game of Top Trumps.
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Meanwhile in reality, Russia is bringing 70 year old tanks out of storage to the front line to replace all the ones they have lost.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/)
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Meanwhile in reality, Russia is bringing 70 year old tanks out of storage to the front line to replace all the ones they have lost.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/)
Which they are using as artillery buried into trenches, not as battle tanks. This is well known and is actually an ingenious way of utilising old Soviet equipment. Russia have no shortage of tanks. You are free to believe what you wish. You cannot counter any of the points so repeat idiotic Western propaganda where facts, such as the above, are spun to give wholly false impressions.
NATO cannot defeat Russia in a land war in Europe. All serious and objective military experts understand this truth. It has been war gamed often enough by NATO always with the same outcome. I believe NATO won when they played Top Trumps :)
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Which they are using as artillery buried into trenches, not as battle tanks. This is well known and is actually an ingenious way of utilising old Soviet equipment. Russia have no shortage of tanks. You are free to believe what you wish. You cannot counter any of the points so repeat idiotic Western propaganda where facts, such as the above, are spun to give wholly false impressions.
NATO cannot defeat Russia in a land war in Europe. All serious and objective military experts understand this truth. It has been war gamed often enough by NATO always with the same outcome. I believe NATO won when they played Top Trumps :)
Using 70 year old tanks as artillery despite having thousands of Self-propelled artillery vehicles that fire much larger rounds? :))
The amount of mental gymnastics you display in trying to justify this botched invasion is hilarious.
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Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.
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Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.
David is fooled by many things. 😏.
Re Russia / Ukraine, I wonder whether something bad will happen to Putin, from his own lot.
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Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.
Its day 498 of the "10 day special military operation". According to Russian plans "last" was 489 days ago.
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David is fooled by many things. 😏.
That's rich coming from you.
Re Russia / Ukraine, I wonder whether something bad will happen to Putin, from his own lot.
If he is taken out, it would likely be done by pro war hardliners like Prigozhin and Surovikin who support the war but are not happy with how Putin has prosecuted it and think they can do better. Putin being removed will not necessarily end the conflict.
Talking of Prigozhin. The Russian police have raided his mansion.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12268721/Wagner-chief-Prigozhins-palace-raided-Police-closet-WIGS-photo-severed-heads.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12268721/Wagner-chief-Prigozhins-palace-raided-Police-closet-WIGS-photo-severed-heads.html)
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Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.
This is true, Lookout. Part of NATO plans in using Ukraine was to force the Russians to use their "best stuff". Forewarned and all that... There are strategies and nuances at play that sail way over David's "Hollywoodised" view of the world.
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Aside from the impossibly long and therefore easily interdicted logistical nightmare of getting troops and equipment to the front, there is also the huge issue of industrial capacity. NATO Military Industrial Complex(MIC) is inefficient and corrupt and exists mainly to sell overpriced junk to NATO countries. They have no industrial capacity to quickly ramp up production to the requirements needed to fight Russia.
Take the F35 as a glaring example of NATO inefficiecy/corruption.
https://theweek.com/us-military/1020858/the-f-35-fighter-jets-troubled-history#:~:text=The%20F%2D35%20has%20been,lightning%2C%22%20Business%20Insider%20reports.
From the article above;
Right from the beginning. The Vanity Fair's Adam Ciralzky reported in 2013 that the Joint Strike Fighter program was launched in 2001 with a plan to put entire squadrons of planes in the air by 2010, at a relatively paltry cost of $233 billion. More than a decade later, however, the plans were "at least seven years behind schedule and plagued by a risky development strategy, shoddy management, laissez-faire oversight, countless design flaws, and skyrocketing costs." Three years after that the project's cost had doubled from its original estimates, and CNN reported that late Sen. John McCain decried the plane's development as "a scandal and a tragedy with respect to cost, schedule, and performance." And those problems continue right up through the present moment. Even now, Business Insider reports the F-35 "still hasn't been approved for full-rate production and remains in limited procurement.
So what are the problems?
Where to start? Here's a short list. The F-35 has been troubled by "problems with its stealth coating, sustained supersonic flight, helmet-mounted display, excessive vibration from its cannon, and even vulnerability to being hit by lightning," Business Insider reports. (The irony? The F-35's official nickname is the "Lightning II.") There have even been troubles building a simulator for pilot training. Because of issues with the jet's tail section, the Pentagon has limited how long the aircraft can fly at supersonic speeds — only short bursts of power are allowed. "The problem may make it impossible for the Navy's F-35C to conduct supersonic intercepts," Defense News reported in 2020. The program has also been plagued by a lack of spare parts for its $12 million engines: In February 2022, The Drive reports, "36 of the fleet of about 450 F-35s — or about 8 percent — were unable to fly because they had no working engine." In August, the Pentagon temporarily paused fighter deliveries because it discovered a Chinese-made part was used in production. And in December, deliveries were paused again after an F-35 crashed in Texas. (The pilot safely ejected.)
17 countries are involved in the F35 program and all have some part in manufacturing different parts. The whole thing(the pinnacle of alleged NATO superiority) is a farce and a massive grift on behalf of Lockheed Martin and its co-conspirators.
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Even if NATO countries could instantaneously build factories and capacity to produce the weapons in the numbers required(they can't), they rely on steel and titanium and other many vital metals/rare earths required in the production of those weapons, ironically from the countries they are busily sanctioning. Having exported all of our industry over the last 40 years or so this would also have to be rebuilt in order to have the "industrial capacity".
It is no secret that Russia is autarkic, but not only that, it is now apparent to all(or should be) that Europe needs Russia more than Russia needs Europe. It is why the sanctions were always going to backfire. I stated all of this at the time. It is as obvious in hindsight as it was predictable. How can you sanction a country that is autarkic? Even more preposterous, how can you sanction an autarkic country when you are dependant on energy/food and other items from them yourself in order to sustain your country?
The Russian MIC on the other hand is way more efficient and concentrated. It isn't a merry go round of contractors grifting after public funds and running the show. Russia MIC has much more state control-which is exactly how defence procurement and a MIC should be run.
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How can you sanction a country that is autarkic? Even more preposterous, how can you sanction an autarkic country when you are dependant on energy/food and other items from them yourself in order to sustain your country?
So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?
The Russian MIC on the other hand is way more efficient and concentrated. It isn't a merry go round of contractors grifting after public funds and running the show.
I guess then in Tankie fantasy world, the CIA must have planted that huge palace in St Petersburg to make Preghozin and those running Wagner look like a grifters exploiting public money. It all makes sense now! ::)
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So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?
Yes Western countries are buying Russian oil from India, this isn't a secret. The sanctions are a farce because the world needs Russia and Russian resources. You cannot even acknowledge civilian deaths caused by NATO aggression. It is hardly likely that you have looked at all into Western countries undermining their own sanctions because of their reliance on Russian resources.
If you also believe in the Net Zero fantasy then it is apparent that you don't really ask critical questions of any narrative as long as it confirms your existing trained biases. When are all of these "nuclear fusion" plants going to be built, when are they coming on line? When is renewable energy able to produce the necessary energy required by a modern society? Bear in mind all of the extra electricity required to be generated to charge the millions of electric vehicles in this Utopian dreamworld.
You should probably have a little detour onto the sustainability and environmental impact of the "clean" energy that you imagine is figured out and coming. How much energy would be required to build and run the plants producing all these batteries?
I hope that this is all figured out and you can demonstrate the planned seamless transition to these new energies. Of course you can't, hence the insults about "Tankie Fantasy World", "conspiritards" etc.
What has happened to Russian gas and oil exports since the sanctions regime began? Have they dropped? or been redirected? All that has occurred is that Russia exports have increased and Western countries and consumers have paid more.
Your dumb insults only emphasise your own lack of courage in your own supposed convictions. You would come up with agreed and undeniable facts and figures to support your arguments if you truly believed them. Instead you run away and resort to name calling instead of defending your arguments with facts.
Everyone who can read can see that you way out of your depth discussing anything related to any wider geopolitical picture.
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So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?
Yes Western countries are buying Russian oil from India, this isn't a secret. The sanctions are a farce because the world needs Russia and Russian resources. You cannot even acknowledge civilian deaths caused by NATO aggression. It is hardly likely that you have looked at all into Western countries undermining their own sanctions because of their reliance on Russian resources.
If you also believe in the Net Zero fantasy then it is apparent that you don't really ask critical questions of any narrative as long as it confirms your existing trained biases. When are all of these "nuclear fusion" plants going to be built, when are they coming on line? When is renewable energy able to produce the necessary energy required by a modern society? Bear in mind all of the extra electricity required to be generated to charge the millions of electric vehicles in this Utopian dreamworld.
You should probably have a little detour onto the sustainability and environmental impact of the "clean" energy that you imagine is figured out and coming. How much energy would be required to build and run the plants producing all these batteries?
I hope that this is all figured out and you can demonstrate the planned seamless transition to these new energies. Of course you can't, hence the insults about "Tankie Fantasy World", "conspiritards" etc.
What has happened to Russian gas and oil exports since the sanctions regime began? Have they dropped? or been redirected? All that has occurred is that Russia exports have increased and Western countries and consumers have paid more.
Your dumb insults only emphasise your own lack of courage in your own supposed convictions. You would come up with agreed and undeniable facts and figures to support your arguments if you truly believed them. Instead you run away and resort to name calling instead of defending your arguments with facts.
Everyone who can read can see that you way out of your depth discussing anything related to any wider geopolitical picture.
It's a mixed picture economically gringo. Whilst the damage inflicted on the Russian economy has been limited to date you can't dispute the discount prices Russia has had to offer to sell its oil. The gas pipeline is not fully functional to Russia's largest market, Germany.
The economics aside, Russia has surely lost the moral high ground following the invasion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure
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It's a mixed picture economically gringo. Whilst the damage inflicted on the Russian economy has been limited to date you can't dispute the discount prices Russia has had to offer to sell its oil. The gas pipeline is not fully functional to Russia's largest market, Germany.
The economics aside, Russia has surely lost the moral high ground following the invasion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure
If the best that can be said of the supposed "Sanctions from Hell", that would crush Russia and turn the "Rouble to Rubble", is that they are a "mixed picture economically" then that is an admission of their failure really, Steve. Europe, particularly, has been hit hard whilst Russia has adapted and moved on with little to no impact. The loss of gas market to Europe has been to Europe's loss and detriment, not Russia's. Russia have redirected them and exports are up.
The moral high ground which Russia has "lost" in your eyes is perhaps not meant for your eyes, Steve. Russia's moral standing in Eurasia, Latin America, Africa is viewed through a different lens than the one that you view it through. The moral standing of the West is being well and truly exposed and those countries that have suffered from the Imperialist, colonialist wars and exploitation are behind Russia. NATO , outside of NATOstan, are seen as an aggressive warmongering threat by every country on the planet. No matter how much NATOstani's believe this about Russia, the majority of the world don't.
A growing minority in NATOstan are also coming to this realisation.
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If the best that can be said of the supposed "Sanctions from Hell", that would crush Russia and turn the "Rouble to Rubble", is that they are a "mixed picture economically" then that is an admission of their failure really, Steve. Europe, particularly, has been hit hard whilst Russia has adapted and moved on with little to no impact. The loss of gas market to Europe has been to Europe's loss and detriment, not Russia's. Russia have redirected them and exports are up.
The moral high ground which Russia has "lost" in your eyes is perhaps not meant for your eyes, Steve. Russia's moral standing in Eurasia, Latin America, Africa is viewed through a different lens than the one that you view it through. The moral standing of the West is being well and truly exposed and those countries that have suffered from the Imperialist, colonialist wars and exploitation are behind Russia. NATO , outside of NATOstan, are seen as an aggressive warmongering threat by every country on the planet. No matter how much NATOstani's believe this about Russia, the majority of the world don't.
A growing minority in NATOstan are also coming to this realisation.
Time will tell whether Russia has been digging into its reserves to prop up the value of the rouble. The gas pipeline to Germany was easy money, instead of transporting the stuff in canisters to places much further afield. Oil has been sold at discount rates. Electoral intimidation is rife in Russia, China's elections are a joke, and even India seems to have fallen from grace. That's a mighty section of the world's population where Western-style democracy is despised, however much you wish to praise BRICS. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2019/05/10/the-new-indian-election-free-but-not-fair/
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Time will tell whether Russia has been digging into its reserves to prop up the value of the rouble. The gas pipeline to Germany was easy money, instead of transporting the stuff in canisters to places much further afield. Oil has been sold at discount rates. Electoral intimidation is rife in Russia, China's elections are a joke, and even India seems to have fallen from grace. That's a mighty section of the world's population where Western-style democracy is despised, however much you wish to praise BRICS. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2019/05/10/the-new-indian-election-free-but-not-fair/
There is also a growing section of Western populations where "Western style democracy is despised." So called, "Western style democracies", are the same countries that have invaded, destroyed and murdered countless civilians without the support or consent of the populations of these so called "democracies". The polities that you criticise would not survive the public push-back against the sort of interventions taken by "Western style democracies". Most of the world, and perhaps even a majority within "Western style democracies", recognise as clear as day that there is no democracy in "Western style democracies".
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'there is no democracy in "Western style democracies'.
In this country you have a simple choice when voting in a government.
You either vote in a Conservative government.
Or
You vote in a right-leaning Labour government.
You are not allowed to vote in a left leaning Labour government. Even a center left Labour government would be an illusion. They would follow Conservative foreign policy etc. And, would be committed to a status quo of how both our own and allies' security services operate. Something which a left leaning Labour govt would not. Therefore, they are not allowed.
That is the extent of democracy in our country.
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In this country you have a simple choice when voting in a government.
You either vote in a Conservative government.
Or
You vote in a right-leaning Labour government.
You are not allowed to vote in a left leaning Labour government. Even a center left Labour government would be an illusion. They would follow Conservative foreign policy etc. And, would be committed to a status quo of how both our own and allies' security services operate. Something which a left leaning Labour govt would not. Therefore, they are not allowed.
That is the extent of democracy in our country.
Democracy, Western Style, is the biggest lie of all. It doesn't exist. The governments that Western populations have been trained to hate and see as "authoritarian tyrants" would not have survived the public backlash had they launched the aggressive resource theft/control wars that have been launched by "Western Democracies". Neither Chinese nor Russian publics would have acquiesced to such aggressions as the Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan aggressions by NATO/US. Western populations are conditioned to believe that the Rest of the World thinks in the same zero sum terms as themselves. Cracks are becoming fissures and the whole "Empire of Lies" is crashing. The eyes of Western populace are being opened. Saw a tweet from Sirius Report (copied/pasted below) a few days ago that sums up my thoughts. I think a day of reckoning is coming-it feels inevitable;
"Everyone is going to have to face the uncomfortable truth that the grotesque lie about Iraqi WMDs is but the very tip of the iceberg.
What people fail to grasp is longer these lies go unaccounted for the more it is going to impact their own lives in very damaging ways."
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Russian Uragan & Grad MLRSs destroyed by Ukrainian Airburst Munitions. 2023.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14yv1c9/russian_uragan_grad_mlrss_destroyed_by_ukrainian/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14yv1c9/russian_uragan_grad_mlrss_destroyed_by_ukrainian/)
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A Russian Buk-M2 air defense system is hit and destroyed by Ukrainian artillery on the Zaporizhzhia front
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14xrzwb/a_russian_bukm2_air_defense_system_is_hit_and/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14xrzwb/a_russian_bukm2_air_defense_system_is_hit_and/)
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Russian troops inspecting what remains of their tanks
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/150enh6/russian_troops_inspecting_their_tanks_after_an/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/150enh6/russian_troops_inspecting_their_tanks_after_an/)
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NATO regime media beginning to face the truth of the fact that NATO cannot defeat Russia. An interview on CNN with Eric Schmidt is very revealing. It basically confirms everything that "Tankie Fantasy World" has long known. His attempts to put on as much positive spin as he can do not disguise the fact that the problems that he addresses can't be hand waved away.
The ammunition issue and the overwhelming advantage that Russia hold, which is admitted, segues not entirely seamlessly into the claim that neither side possess enough advantage to move the lines and that it is caught in some sort of stalemate. This is wishful thinking, not analysis.
Schmidt confirms exactly what I have repeatedly stated and in fact gives Russia an even greater advantage. According to him, Russia are firing 60,000 shells a day compared to the Ukrainian 5,000. He admits that the entirety of NATO production can only produce 1,000,000 shells a year. Russia are using over 20,000,000 per year and have what he calls an "infinite supply".
This is same media that were telling us a year ago, ten months ago, 8 months ago... that Russia were about to run out of ammo any day/week now. CNN and the rest are all joining "Conspiritard Tankie Fantasy World".
Schmidt also describes how the Ukrainians are struggling to advance because of the minefields, artillery, drones, KA52's stopping any advance before a Russian is seen.
With all of this in mind, his assertion of some kind of stalemate is fanciful. It should be obvious to anyone now that the Russian strategy is to disarm by attrition. When this is done and there is nothing to fire back, the Russians won't just be sitting back waiting for the Ukrainians/NATO to get some more shells. If the Ukrainians fail to recognise their helpless situation and surrender, they will be slaughtered. To quote the numbers that Schmidt did and not recognise the inevitable consequence of running out of shells is hopium.
All of this information has long been available and the consequences obvious all along. I have stated this from the beginning as have many other voices. Even the regime propagandists see the writing on the wall and are busily preparing an off ramp and getting ready to pack up, leave and declare victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjInnRL-HUg&ab_channel=CNN
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Reply #2506 on: February 15, 2023, 11:17:PM »
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Jens Stoltenberg today;
“It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” he said. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles.”
Mr. Stoltenberg said Ukrainian troops are expending ammo at “many times higher” than the current rate of production for NATO members. The situation is putting pressure on allied defense industries.
He said the waiting time for large caliber ammunition — such as shells for the 155mm howitzers sent by the U.S. — has increased from 12 to 28 months, on average.
“Orders placed today would only be delivered 2½ years later. So we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity,” Mr. Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters.
In red above, tells the tale of the real state of affairs on the battlefield. It is not disputed that the rate of artillery fire heavily favours the Russians by something between 8 and 10 to 1. Stoltenberg admits that even that current rate of fire is more than can be produced by the entirety of NATO. Their stockpiles are massively depleted and they cannot even keep up a rate which is 1/10th of russia's current firing rate. Western intelligence, parroted by the usual suspects on here, have been telling us for months that Russia are running out of everything from ammo to tanks to missiles.
The promised imminent Russia about to run out of stuff never happened and here we are. NATO cannot even sustain 10% of Russian ammo production and are running out of tanks, ammo, men.
Seems as if Russia's go slow grinding has some strategic value after all. It is bleeding NATO dry-a complete reversal of NATO plans. This is not surprising. Just as the "sanctions from hell" have backfired spectacularly on the sanctioners, the sanctioned(Russia) are doing just fine.
NATO planners versus Russian General Staff is like David vs ngb at chess.
The above from 5 months ago. Followed by;
What a clown show. Talking about the ammunition crisis faced by NATO in Ukraine. Simple version- NATO are not prepared or equipped to take on Russia and are fucked. Russia didn't fight the way NATO planned for and NATO had no plan b. 20th century war instead of 21st century war? It would be hilarious if it wasn't real.
Plan A, rather than some comprehensively gamed strategy, was something between hope and wishful thinking. You are now slowly being prepared for the inevitable(all along)defeat of NATO and its proxy.
David's reply to the above;
You are living in a complete fantasy world.
Do you still think that it is fantasy? What happens when Ukraine can't fire back? If there is a negotiated settlement, who do you think gets to dictate the terms of the settlement, given the above admitted state of affairs?
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Reply #2506 on: February 15, 2023, 11:17:PM »
QuoteModifyRemove
Jens Stoltenberg today;
“It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” he said. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles.”
Mr. Stoltenberg said Ukrainian troops are expending ammo at “many times higher” than the current rate of production for NATO members. The situation is putting pressure on allied defense industries.
He said the waiting time for large caliber ammunition — such as shells for the 155mm howitzers sent by the U.S. — has increased from 12 to 28 months, on average.
“Orders placed today would only be delivered 2½ years later. So we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity,” Mr. Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters.
In red above, tells the tale of the real state of affairs on the battlefield. It is not disputed that the rate of artillery fire heavily favours the Russians by something between 8 and 10 to 1. Stoltenberg admits that even that current rate of fire is more than can be produced by the entirety of NATO. Their stockpiles are massively depleted and they cannot even keep up a rate which is 1/10th of russia's current firing rate. Western intelligence, parroted by the usual suspects on here, have been telling us for months that Russia are running out of everything from ammo to tanks to missiles.
The promised imminent Russia about to run out of stuff never happened and here we are. NATO cannot even sustain 10% of Russian ammo production and are running out of tanks, ammo, men.
Seems as if Russia's go slow grinding has some strategic value after all. It is bleeding NATO dry-a complete reversal of NATO plans. This is not surprising. Just as the "sanctions from hell" have backfired spectacularly on the sanctioners, the sanctioned(Russia) are doing just fine.
NATO planners versus Russian General Staff is like David vs ngb at chess.
The above from 5 months ago. Followed by;
What a clown show. Talking about the ammunition crisis faced by NATO in Ukraine. Simple version- NATO are not prepared or equipped to take on Russia and are fucked. Russia didn't fight the way NATO planned for and NATO had no plan b. 20th century war instead of 21st century war? It would be hilarious if it wasn't real.
Plan A, rather than some comprehensively gamed strategy, was something between hope and wishful thinking. You are now slowly being prepared for the inevitable(all along)defeat of NATO and its proxy.
David's reply to the above;
You are living in a complete fantasy world.
Do you still think that it is fantasy? What happens when Ukraine can't fire back? If there is a negotiated settlement, who do you think gets to dictate the terms of the settlement, given the above admitted state of affairs?
You are a seasoned observer of world affairs gringo and have done meticulous research. Don't you think it possible, even likely that war will be continued by other means? https://youtu.be/Z-jG_vzCRmE
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You are a seasoned observer of world affairs gringo and have done meticulous research. Don't you think it possible, even likely that war will be continued by other means? https://youtu.be/Z-jG_vzCRmE
I do expect that, Steve. The strategy being used by Russia is informed by multi reasons, not just the one. One of the side effects of dragging NATO/Ukraine into trench style artillery war is to eliminate as much of the capability for counter insurgency as possible using the one sided war of attrition.
NATO training was entirely for counter insurgency. The flipping of the script by Russia that I have previously referred to left NATO/Ukraine completely unprepared. Good military planning allows for contingencies and anticipates them. NATO expected Russia to invade and occupy Ukraine. This is where the Kiev in 3 days comes from. Russia, as is currently being demonstrated, were prepared for a long war of attrition. Why would Russia play into NATO hands and occupy hostile territory facing years of counter insurgency gradually attempting to bleed them out? They learnt lessons from the US sponsored and armed insurgency against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980's.
The Russian military also were aware of the huge imbalances in industrial capacity. NATO/Ukraine are facing humiliating defeat and as a side effect Russia are removing assets that would have been used for the planned counter insurgency after the expected(by NATO) Russian occupation. There will still be stay behind terror cells (a la Operation Gladio) but they will have nothing but pinprick attacks.
NATO planning relied entirely on Russia occupying Ukraine using overwhelming air and fire power. They hadn't thought of any contingencies. This is very apparent to everyone now surely. The current imbalance in shell production, tank production, missile production makes clear who was prepared for the events unfolding and who was caught completely unprepared.
Russia will not attempt to occupy anywhere in Ukraine. Regions that vote to join or align with Russia will have autonomy to provide their own security from their own pro Russian population. Those regions who want to remain with whatever is left of Ukraine will be free to do so. It will be part of any agreement that Ukraine(what is left of it) will be demilitarised and neutral.
There is too much at stake for those behind Western Imperialism to just walk away. They will kick and scream but the defeat of Western Imperialism is inevitable now. I expect that the changing economic and financial power in the world will nullify much of the anticipated insurgencies within a generation.
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In the same interview referred to earlier on CNN (ie. NATO regime media) with Eric Schmidt, he also reveals his and NATO planners shock, "at how good the Russians are at Electronic Warfare and jamming...basically everything you send into this battlefield...they jam everything, GPS is jammed, communications are jammed so normal drones don't work..."
Over a year ago, I repeatedly made the point that Russian Air Defence, Electronic Warfare and missile technology, to name just three, were way in advance of US/NATO tech. This was dismissed as "Tankie fantasy World" by David. Every single point that I have been making for years to demonstrate the impossibility of NATO defeating Russia is now being confirmed by NATO spokespeople and their media, who can no longer credibly claim otherwise given events on the ground.
Western military technology, planning, capacity, logistics and strategy are being humiliated on a real battleground by Russia. This has been obvious all along to anyone who doesn't rely on Western propaganda for their news.