Why can't NATO win a land war against Russia in Europe?

[gringo]

    There is a simple answer to the question but will add some meat to it. Others are welcome to add more.
    The simple answer- It is war, not a game of Top Trumps.

    NATO proponents in order to demonstrate "NATO superiority" over Russia resort to silly comparisons of this or that number of planes, men, money whatever. Just like a game of Top Trumps. If it was a game of Top Trumps, then I agree, NATO win hands down. I'm sure that it is beyond dispute that NATO are superior to Russia, in a game of Top Trumps.
    Unfortunately for NATO, that is where their "superiority" ends. The pretence that Russia are struggling to defeat Ukraine and would be "obliterated" by NATO is fantasy on many levels. Russia are already fighting NATO in Ukraine and confirming what every war gamed scenario ever commissioned by NATO has shown; ie. Russia cannot be defeated by conventional means in a land war in Europe.
    Currently "Ukraine" is armed by, funded by, trained by and provided with all C4ISR intel via US/UK AWACS planes. On top of this are many supposed mercenaries who are all "ex" servicemen of NATO militaries. Targeting and intel provided by NATO. Russia are already fighting NATO and whatever escalations are thrown at Russia, they just carry on grinding away. The rate of attrition is horrendously one sided as one would expect with such an imbalance in shells, missiles, military hardware and logistic lines. It is an agreed fact that Russia are firing somewhere between 8 to 10 shells for every one Ukrainian/NATO shell and acknowledged that 65/70% of casualties/deaths are the result of artillery. It is impossible to believe that the rate of attrition in manpower does not reflect these battleground realities.
     The Russians are penetrating the deep rear of Ukraine with so called Geranium drones, guided glide bombs and missiles destroying weapons stocks and troop concentrations before they get anywhere near any Russians. The current "so called" Ukrainian counter offensive has been a disaster. Men and equipment being destroyed in what is a slaughter, without even reaching the first of three Russian defence echelons. What isn't destroyed by mines is mercilessly pounded in fire zones in the "grey area" stretching kilometres in front of the first echelon of Russian defensive lines by artillery, anti tank guided missiles or destroyed by KA52 attack helicopters operating out of range of Ukrainian counter measures and acting with impunity.
     What else could NATO do to defeat Russia in a land war in Europe?
     Beyond whatever is the claimed number of active personnel and equipment available to NATO in a Top Trumps game, how real would this figure be in an actual war? Who believes that the two largest standing armies in NATO would put "boots on the ground" in this NATO v Russia war in Europe? The largest army (the US) would not politically be able to send the hundreds of thousands of troops required(too many would rapidly be returned to sender). Turkey (the second largest standing army in NATO)? Good luck with that  What rag tag bunch of insignificant militaries in NATO outside the two largest armies are sending all of these troops? How are they getting there in an openly declared Russia/NATO war where Russia get to use the toys saved for this very scenario? Would their publics tolerate the body bags.
     Russia aren't Iraq. They can easily prevent build up on their border by sinking the ships and shooting down the planes before they arrive. Russia, on the other hand, have a somewhat easier logistic chain.
     There are other equally self evident reasons that mean the result of any conventional NATO/Russia war in Europe ends in inevitable Russian victory. NATO leadership are aware of this having war gamed the scenario many times. No military in the world knows how to defend better than Russia. This is objectively true. The only way for NATO to win? is to somehow be able to launch a decapitating first nuclear strike on Russia taking out most of their retaliation ability. This is not possible and utterly mad but Western leadership is clearly compromised and psychopathic. They are also in a hopeless position.
     Like I say, It isn't a game of Top Trumps.

[David1819]

Meanwhile in reality, Russia is bringing 70 year old tanks out of storage to the front line to replace all the ones they have lost.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/

 

[gringo]

Meanwhile in reality, Russia is bringing 70 year old tanks out of storage to the front line to replace all the ones they have lost.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/14r9xcg/a_train_transferring_old_russian_tanks_was/

    Which they are using as artillery buried into trenches, not as battle tanks. This is well known and is actually an ingenious way of utilising old Soviet equipment. Russia have no shortage of tanks. You are free to believe what you wish. You cannot counter any of the points so repeat idiotic Western propaganda where facts, such as the above, are spun to give wholly false impressions.
     NATO cannot defeat Russia in a land war in Europe. All serious and objective military experts understand this truth. It has been war gamed often enough by NATO always with the same outcome. I believe NATO won when they played Top Trumps 

[David1819]

    Which they are using as artillery buried into trenches, not as battle tanks. This is well known and is actually an ingenious way of utilising old Soviet equipment. Russia have no shortage of tanks. You are free to believe what you wish. You cannot counter any of the points so repeat idiotic Western propaganda where facts, such as the above, are spun to give wholly false impressions.
     NATO cannot defeat Russia in a land war in Europe. All serious and objective military experts understand this truth. It has been war gamed often enough by NATO always with the same outcome. I believe NATO won when they played Top Trumps 

Using 70 year old tanks as artillery despite having thousands of Self-propelled artillery vehicles that fire much larger rounds? 

The amount of mental gymnastics you display in trying to justify this botched invasion is hilarious.

[lookout]

Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.

[Roch]

Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.

David is fooled by many things. 😏.

Re Russia / Ukraine, I wonder whether something bad will happen to Putin, from his own lot.

[David1819]

Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.

Its day 498 of the "10 day special military operation". According to Russian plans "last" was 489 days ago.

[David1819]

David is fooled by many things. 😏.

That's rich coming from you.

Re Russia / Ukraine, I wonder whether something bad will happen to Putin, from his own lot.

If he is taken out, it would likely be done by pro war hardliners like Prigozhin and Surovikin who support the war but are not happy with how Putin has prosecuted it and think they can do better. Putin being removed will not necessarily end the conflict.

Talking of Prigozhin. The Russian police have raided his mansion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12268721/Wagner-chief-Prigozhins-palace-raided-Police-closet-WIGS-photo-severed-heads.html

[gringo]

Russia are keeping the best 'till last. Don't be fooled by them David.

    This is true, Lookout. Part of NATO plans in using Ukraine was to force the Russians to use their "best stuff". Forewarned and all that... There are strategies and nuances at play that sail way over David's "Hollywoodised" view of the world.

[gringo]

     Aside from the impossibly long and therefore easily interdicted logistical nightmare of getting troops and equipment to the front, there is also the huge issue of industrial capacity. NATO Military Industrial Complex(MIC) is inefficient and corrupt and exists mainly to sell overpriced junk to NATO countries. They have no industrial capacity to quickly ramp up production to the requirements needed to fight Russia.
     Take the F35 as a glaring example of NATO inefficiecy/corruption.

https://theweek.com/us-military/1020858/the-f-35-fighter-jets-troubled-history#:~:text=The%20F%2D35%20has%20been,lightning%2C%22%20Business%20Insider%20reports.

   From the article above;

Right from the beginning. The Vanity Fair's Adam Ciralzky reported in 2013 that the Joint Strike Fighter program was launched in 2001 with a plan to put entire squadrons of planes in the air by 2010, at a relatively paltry cost of $233 billion. More than a decade later, however, the plans were "at least seven years behind schedule and plagued by a risky development strategy, shoddy management, laissez-faire oversight, countless design flaws, and skyrocketing costs." Three years after that the project's cost had doubled from its original estimates, and CNN reported that late Sen. John McCain decried the plane's development as "a scandal and a tragedy with respect to cost, schedule, and performance." And those problems continue right up through the present moment. Even now, Business Insider reports the F-35 "still hasn't been approved for full-rate production and remains in limited procurement.

So what are the problems?
Where to start? Here's a short list. The F-35 has been troubled by "problems with its stealth coating, sustained supersonic flight, helmet-mounted display, excessive vibration from its cannon, and even vulnerability to being hit by lightning," Business Insider reports. (The irony? The F-35's official nickname is the "Lightning II.") There have even been troubles building a simulator for pilot training. Because of issues with the jet's tail section, the Pentagon has limited how long the aircraft can fly at supersonic speeds — only short bursts of power are allowed. "The problem may make it impossible for the Navy's F-35C to conduct supersonic intercepts," Defense News reported in 2020. The program has also been plagued by a lack of spare parts for its $12 million engines: In February 2022, The Drive reports, "36 of the fleet of about 450 F-35s — or about 8 percent — were unable to fly because they had no working engine." In August, the Pentagon temporarily paused fighter deliveries because it discovered a Chinese-made part was used in production. And in December, deliveries were paused again after an F-35 crashed in Texas. (The pilot safely ejected.)


    17 countries are involved in the F35 program and all have some part in manufacturing different parts. The whole thing(the pinnacle of alleged NATO superiority) is a farce and a massive grift on behalf of Lockheed Martin and its co-conspirators.
 

[gringo]

     Even if NATO countries could instantaneously build factories and capacity to produce the weapons in the numbers required(they can't), they rely on steel and titanium and other many vital metals/rare earths required in the production of those weapons, ironically from the countries they are busily sanctioning. Having exported all of our industry over the last 40 years or so this would also have to be rebuilt in order to have the "industrial capacity".
      It is no secret that Russia is autarkic, but not only that, it is now apparent to all(or should be) that Europe needs Russia more than Russia needs Europe. It is why the sanctions were always going to backfire. I stated all of this at the time. It is as obvious in hindsight as it was predictable. How can you sanction a country that is autarkic? Even more preposterous, how can you sanction an autarkic country when you are dependant on energy/food and other items from them yourself in order to sustain your country?
     The Russian MIC on the other hand is way more efficient and concentrated. It isn't a merry go round of contractors grifting after public funds and running the show. Russia MIC has much more state control-which is exactly how defence procurement and a MIC should be run.
 

[David1819]

     How can you sanction a country that is autarkic? Even more preposterous, how can you sanction an autarkic country when you are dependant on energy/food and other items from them yourself in order to sustain your country?
   

So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?

     The Russian MIC on the other hand is way more efficient and concentrated. It isn't a merry go round of contractors grifting after public funds and running the show.
 

I guess then in Tankie fantasy world, the CIA must have planted that huge palace in St Petersburg to make Preghozin and those running Wagner look like a grifters exploiting public money. It all makes sense now! 
 

[gringo]

So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?

    Yes Western countries are buying Russian oil from India, this isn't a secret. The sanctions are a farce because the world needs Russia and Russian resources. You cannot even acknowledge civilian deaths caused by NATO aggression. It is hardly likely that you have looked at all into Western countries undermining their own sanctions because of their reliance on Russian resources.
    If you also believe in the Net Zero fantasy then it is apparent that you don't really ask critical questions of any narrative as long as it confirms your existing trained biases. When are all of these "nuclear fusion" plants going to be built, when are they coming on line? When is renewable energy able to produce the necessary energy required by a modern society? Bear in mind all of the extra electricity required to be generated to charge the millions of electric vehicles in this Utopian dreamworld.
    You should probably have a little detour onto the sustainability and environmental impact of the "clean" energy that you imagine is figured out and coming. How much energy would be required to build and run the plants producing all these batteries?
    I hope that this is all figured out and you can demonstrate the planned seamless transition to these new energies. Of course you can't, hence the insults about "Tankie Fantasy World", "conspiritards" etc.
    What has happened to Russian gas and oil exports since the sanctions regime began? Have they dropped? or been redirected? All that has occurred is that Russia exports have increased and Western countries and consumers have paid more.
    Your dumb insults only emphasise your own lack of courage in your own supposed convictions. You would come up with agreed and undeniable facts and figures to support your arguments if you truly believed them. Instead you run away and resort to name calling instead of defending your arguments with facts.
     Everyone who can read can see that you way out of your depth discussing anything related to any wider geopolitical picture.   

[Steve_uk]

So in Tankie fantasy world, is the western transition to electric cars, renewable energy and nuclear fusion all a big lie and they are still secretly buying oil from Russia indefinitely?

    Yes Western countries are buying Russian oil from India, this isn't a secret. The sanctions are a farce because the world needs Russia and Russian resources. You cannot even acknowledge civilian deaths caused by NATO aggression. It is hardly likely that you have looked at all into Western countries undermining their own sanctions because of their reliance on Russian resources.
    If you also believe in the Net Zero fantasy then it is apparent that you don't really ask critical questions of any narrative as long as it confirms your existing trained biases. When are all of these "nuclear fusion" plants going to be built, when are they coming on line? When is renewable energy able to produce the necessary energy required by a modern society? Bear in mind all of the extra electricity required to be generated to charge the millions of electric vehicles in this Utopian dreamworld.
    You should probably have a little detour onto the sustainability and environmental impact of the "clean" energy that you imagine is figured out and coming. How much energy would be required to build and run the plants producing all these batteries?
    I hope that this is all figured out and you can demonstrate the planned seamless transition to these new energies. Of course you can't, hence the insults about "Tankie Fantasy World", "conspiritards" etc.
    What has happened to Russian gas and oil exports since the sanctions regime began? Have they dropped? or been redirected? All that has occurred is that Russia exports have increased and Western countries and consumers have paid more.
    Your dumb insults only emphasise your own lack of courage in your own supposed convictions. You would come up with agreed and undeniable facts and figures to support your arguments if you truly believed them. Instead you run away and resort to name calling instead of defending your arguments with facts.
     Everyone who can read can see that you way out of your depth discussing anything related to any wider geopolitical picture.   

It's a mixed picture economically gringo. Whilst the damage inflicted on the Russian economy has been limited to date you can't dispute the discount prices Russia has had to offer to sell its oil. The gas pipeline is not fully functional to Russia's largest market, Germany.

The economics aside, Russia has surely lost the moral high ground following the invasion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure

[gringo]

It's a mixed picture economically gringo. Whilst the damage inflicted on the Russian economy has been limited to date you can't dispute the discount prices Russia has had to offer to sell its oil. The gas pipeline is not fully functional to Russia's largest market, Germany.

The economics aside, Russia has surely lost the moral high ground following the invasion. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure

    If the best that can be said of the supposed "Sanctions from Hell", that would crush Russia and turn the "Rouble to Rubble", is that they are a "mixed picture economically" then that is an admission of their failure really, Steve. Europe, particularly, has been hit hard whilst Russia has adapted and moved on with little to no impact. The loss of gas market to Europe has been to Europe's loss and detriment, not Russia's. Russia have redirected them and exports are up.
    The moral high ground which Russia has "lost" in your eyes is perhaps not meant for your eyes, Steve. Russia's moral standing in Eurasia, Latin America, Africa is viewed through a different lens than the one that you view it through. The moral standing of the West is being well and truly exposed and those countries that have suffered from the Imperialist, colonialist wars and exploitation are behind Russia. NATO , outside of NATOstan, are seen as an aggressive warmongering threat by every country on the planet. No matter how much NATOstani's believe this about Russia, the majority of the world don't.
     A growing minority in NATOstan are also coming to this realisation.