too much bad luck for one person ?

[sherlock]

As you know I have an open mind about this case

But when I consider the "Sheila did it" theory there is one main thing I struggle with ...

Very rarely I enjoy a little gambling - so I know a thing or two about lucky runs and unlucky runs and the odds of each happening ...

So what's the odds that one man (Jeremy) could have the following run of bad luck :

a) His own sister commits the murders/suicide

b) Independently his own girlfriend lies and stitches him up with a life sentence

c) Independently his own Aunt (or other family member) stitches him up with the silencer

Just seems like a hard to believe run of bad luck to me ...

Some people win the lottery - so nothing is impossible odds wise - but very unlikely in my opinion ...

Ok a) might have happened and b) and c) POSSIBLY both had separate motive - but even so ?

Which is why I think if there is any possible truth in this theory then surely Julie and at least one of the relatives must have discussed and planned the "double stitch up" prior to putting it into place ...

I don't actually believe for one second that money (the relatives) or being jilted (Julie) would be strong enough primary motives for them to deliberately stitch an innocent man up for such a thing especially after such a tragedy ...

But if they really believed Sheila did not do it and therefore believed Jeremy did it then POSSIBLY could they have decided that they just could not let him get away with it and therefore jointly decided to stitch him up in order to see justice done ?

That would shorten the odds considerably in my opinion ....

It's a lot more common in gambling to get a double rather than a treble coming in - especially if each individual bet itself starts off as a long shot ...

Is it even remotely possible that Julie could have planted the silencer herself ? but then how would she know that it would be found and acted upon (she wouldn't I would say) ...

I am very interested in other peoples views on this ...

[Caroline]

As you know I have an open mind about this case

But when I consider the "Sheila did it" theory there is one main thing I struggle with ...

Very rarely I enjoy a little gambling - so I know a thing or two about lucky runs and unlucky runs and the odds of each happening ...

So what's the odds that one man (Jeremy) could have the following run of bad luck :

a) His own sister commits the murders/suicide

b) Independently his own girlfriend lies and stitches him up with a life sentence

c) Independently his own Aunt (or other family member) stitches him up with the silencer

Just seems like a hard to believe run of bad luck to me ...

Some people win the lottery - so nothing is impossible odds wise - but very unlikely in my opinion ...

Ok a) might have happened and b) and c) POSSIBLY both had separate motive - but even so ?

Which is why I think if there is any possible truth in this theory then surely Julie and at least one of the relatives must have discussed and planned the "double stitch up" prior to putting it into place ...

I don't actually believe for one second that money (the relatives) or being jilted (Julie) would be strong enough primary motives for them to deliberately stitch an innocent man up for such a thing especially after such a tragedy ...

But if they really believed Sheila did not do it and therefore believed Jeremy did it then POSSIBLY could they have decided that they just could not let him get away with it and therefore jointly decided to stitch him up in order to see justice done ?

That would shorten the odds considerably in my opinion ....

It's a lot more common in gambling to get a double rather than a treble coming in - especially if each individual bet itself starts off as a long shot ...

Is it even remotely possible that Julie could have planted the silencer herself ? but then how would she know that it would be found and acted upon (she wouldn't I would say) ...

I am very interested in other peoples views on this ...

The odds are even shorter for Jeremy to be the killer. You seem to be willing to consider the most complicated of scenarios - in fact ANYTHING that doesn't include Jeremy being the killer. 

[Adam]

Julie planted the silencer ? The things young women do when they spilt up with a boyfriend of 18 months.

You forgot about most of EP framing Bamber as well.

[nugnug]

i dont think mugford did act indepentatley i think she been in contact with the relatives.

[Caroline]

i dont think mugford did act indepentatley i think she been in contact with the relatives.

Around every corner - a conspiracy!

[Jane]

Around every corner - a conspiracy!

Uncle Tom Cobbly has to be in there somewhere...........................or MI5/6/7.50

[nugnug]

Around every corner - a conspiracy!

when youve got to say nothing shout conspriacy over and over agian.

[nugnug]

As you know I have an open mind about this case

But when I consider the "Sheila did it" theory there is one main thing I struggle with ...

Very rarely I enjoy a little gambling - so I know a thing or two about lucky runs and unlucky runs and the odds of each happening ...

So what's the odds that one man (Jeremy) could have the following run of bad luck :

a) His own sister commits the murders/suicide

b) Independently his own girlfriend lies and stitches him up with a life sentence

c) Independently his own Aunt (or other family member) stitches him up with the silencer

Just seems like a hard to believe run of bad luck to me ...

Some people win the lottery - so nothing is impossible odds wise - but very unlikely in my opinion ...

Ok a) might have happened and b) and c) POSSIBLY both had separate motive - but even so ?

Which is why I think if there is any possible truth in this theory then surely Julie and at least one of the relatives must have discussed and planned the "double stitch up" prior to putting it into place ...

I don't actually believe for one second that money (the relatives) or being jilted (Julie) would be strong enough primary motives for them to deliberately stitch an innocent man up for such a thing especially after such a tragedy ...

But if they really believed Sheila did not do it and therefore believed Jeremy did it then POSSIBLY could they have decided that they just could not let him get away with it and therefore jointly decided to stitch him up in order to see justice done ?

That would shorten the odds considerably in my opinion ....

It's a lot more common in gambling to get a double rather than a treble coming in - especially if each individual bet itself starts off as a long shot ...

Is it even remotely possible that Julie could have planted the silencer herself ? but then how would she know that it would be found and acted upon (she wouldn't I would say) ...

I am very interested in other peoples views on this ...

but what are the odds of any of hit happening its an unlikely thing to hapen who eve did it.

[Caroline]

when youve got nothing shout conspriacy over and over agian.

Eh?

[sherlock]

The odds are even shorter for Jeremy to be the killer. You seem to be willing to consider the most complicated of scenarios - in fact ANYTHING that doesn't include Jeremy being the killer.

Caroline - you seem to be confusing me with somebody else ...

As you know I have stated a number of times that I think Jeremy being guilty as charged is a LIKELY theory ....

But as I and others can not be sure that is all there is to this case I am considering many other theories ...

[sherlock]

Julie planted the silencer ? The things young women do when they spilt up with a boyfriend of 18 months.

You forgot about most of EP framing Bamber as well.

Actually I personally don't consider Essex Police having framed Jeremy as a possibility ...

Why would they ?

[sherlock]

but what are the odds of any of hit happening its an unlikely thing to hapen who eve did it.

Unlikely - I agree

Possible ? - maybe ...

[Caroline]

Unlikely - I agree

Possible ? - maybe ...

Lots of things are 'possible' but most are unlikely.

[notsure]

Actually I personally don't consider Essex Police having framed Jeremy as a possibility ...

Why would they ?

well what about eddie gilfoyle. It was his wifes family that said she wouldnt have comitted suicide , her workmates said she had helped her husband prepare suicide notes for a course at work. The police began to listen to her family and hey presto guilty. He served 18 years and always protested his innocence. It went to appeal twice and i think its withthem again.

complete shambles by the police and lots ofexperts now saying it was suicide,

not sure what the outcome was but this is very similar. People just assume something and then truly believe it.

[Adam]

Actually I personally don't consider Essex Police having framed Jeremy as a possibility ...

Why would they ?

Yes, why would they.

But Julie and the relatives had no control over the other mountains of forensic evidence which convicted Bamber.