Author Topic: Anglolawyer's theory  (Read 20442 times)

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Offline Anglolawyer

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Anglolawyer's theory
« on: November 05, 2015, 08:39:AM »
My take on this case is provisionally pro-guilt.   'Provisionally' because there is a lot of material I haven't seen.   I would particularly like to read transcripts of Bamber's and Mugford's trial evidence and to see a complete and reliably-sourced set of the crime scene photos.

My principal reasons for favouring guilt are Mugford's evidence, which I see as credible, even though she had ample reason to lie, the unexplained delay in calling the police and the failure to call 999.   Mugford makes better sense if she was involved in the murders as an accomplice.   That reconciles the peculiar duality of her behaviour and her account.   For instance, the temazapam story in which, knowing why he wanted to test it on himself she allowed him to do so.   In my opinion, she very likely sourced the temazapam specifically at his request but slightly modified the story for the benefit of the cops.

Likewise, the phone call to her at whatever time it was on the morning on 07 Aug is likely to have been a ruse to provide him with some kind of alibi.   Her account of it makes no sense at all.   She says he said, 'there is something wrong at the farm, everything is going well'.   The first part of that is likely what they agreed she would say he said, something ambiguous to give the impression he had not received a clear and distinct message from Neville.   Since he had told her earlier 'tonight's the night' 'something wrong at the farm' would mean the plan had backfired or failed in some way, not that an unexpected emergency had arisen there.

Her involvement also better explains her hesitancy in coming forward.   She took an enormous gamble in doing that.   The police might have decided to go after her too or she might have faced liability for malicious prosecution.   I don't think being jilted was enough to explain her actions.

Anyway, if she made up her account, she sure did a bad job of keeping herself out of it.   Even taken at face value she was admitting very serious offences involving concealment and assistance following the crime.  It is remarkable that she was not prosecuted for those but, maybe not, as it was in nobody's interests to pursue the question of her involvement - not Bamber's and not the cops'.

Whether Bamber received a fair trial is a separate and important question on which I have not formed a strong opinion due to not reading enough about it.   I've read the 2002 appeal which describes and then dismisses a litany of errors and inadequacies in the conduct of the case.   There are substantial concerns about the provenance of 'the' moderator, the state of Sheila's body when found and so on.   It beggars belief that the scene was cleared of blood stained carpet and wallpaper the next day and the cretinous fumbling of Essex police, even to the extent of being unable to write down the time correctly, is truly staggering.

Nonetheless, through all that fog of blundering incompetence and perhaps worse, the theory that seems to fit best is that he did it with her knowledge and assistance as far as the alibi is concerned.   That's where I am with this one.

Offline maggie

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2015, 09:55:AM »
My take on this case is provisionally pro-guilt.   'Provisionally' because there is a lot of material I haven't seen.   I would particularly like to read transcripts of Bamber's and Mugford's trial evidence and to see a complete and reliably-sourced set of the crime scene photos.

My principal reasons for favouring guilt are Mugford's evidence, which I see as credible, even though she had ample reason to lie, the unexplained delay in calling the police and the failure to call 999.   Mugford makes better sense if she was involved in the murders as an accomplice.   That reconciles the peculiar duality of her behaviour and her account.   For instance, the temazapam story in which, knowing why he wanted to test it on himself she allowed him to do so.   In my opinion, she very likely sourced the temazapam specifically at his request but slightly modified the story for the benefit of the cops.

Likewise, the phone call to her at whatever time it was on the morning on 07 Aug is likely to have been a ruse to provide him with some kind of alibi.   Her account of it makes no sense at all.   She says he said, 'there is something wrong at the farm, everything is going well'.   The first part of that is likely what they agreed she would say he said, something ambiguous to give the impression he had not received a clear and distinct message from Neville.   Since he had told her earlier 'tonight's the night' 'something wrong at the farm' would mean the plan had backfired or failed in some way, not that an unexpected emergency had arisen there.

Her involvement also better explains her hesitancy in coming forward.   She took an enormous gamble in doing that.   The police might have decided to go after her too or she might have faced liability for malicious prosecution.   I don't think being jilted was enough to explain her actions.

Anyway, if she made up her account, she sure did a bad job of keeping herself out of it.   Even taken at face value she was admitting very serious offences involving concealment and assistance following the crime.  It is remarkable that she was not prosecuted for those but, maybe not, as it was in nobody's interests to pursue the question of her involvement - not Bamber's and not the cops'.

Whether Bamber received a fair trial is a separate and important question on which I have not formed a strong opinion due to not reading enough about it.   I've read the 2002 appeal which describes and then dismisses a litany of errors and inadequacies in the conduct of the case.   There are substantial concerns about the provenance of 'the' moderator, the state of Sheila's body when found and so on.   It beggars belief that the scene was cleared of blood stained carpet and wallpaper the next day and the cretinous fumbling of Essex police, even to the extent of being unable to write down the time correctly, is truly staggering.

Nonetheless, through all that fog of blundering incompetence and perhaps worse, the theory that seems to fit best is that he did it with her knowledge and assistance as far as the alibi is concerned.   That's where I am with this one.
Thank you Anglolawyer, I agree with your thoughts about Julie Mugford.
Imo Julie Mugford was far more involved than is usually recognised and her statement and her behaviour reinforces this.   :)


Offline nugnug

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2015, 11:21:AM »
ive allways wondered weather she wanted to give evedence or was coerced with threat of being chardged as an acomplice wich if her story is true she clearly was.

Offline Caroline

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2015, 11:30:AM »
My take on this case is provisionally pro-guilt.   'Provisionally' because there is a lot of material I haven't seen.   I would particularly like to read transcripts of Bamber's and Mugford's trial evidence and to see a complete and reliably-sourced set of the crime scene photos.

My principal reasons for favouring guilt are Mugford's evidence, which I see as credible, even though she had ample reason to lie, the unexplained delay in calling the police and the failure to call 999.   Mugford makes better sense if she was involved in the murders as an accomplice.   That reconciles the peculiar duality of her behaviour and her account.   For instance, the temazapam story in which, knowing why he wanted to test it on himself she allowed him to do so.   In my opinion, she very likely sourced the temazapam specifically at his request but slightly modified the story for the benefit of the cops.

Likewise, the phone call to her at whatever time it was on the morning on 07 Aug is likely to have been a ruse to provide him with some kind of alibi.   Her account of it makes no sense at all.   She says he said, 'there is something wrong at the farm, everything is going well'.   The first part of that is likely what they agreed she would say he said, something ambiguous to give the impression he had not received a clear and distinct message from Neville.   Since he had told her earlier 'tonight's the night' 'something wrong at the farm' would mean the plan had backfired or failed in some way, not that an unexpected emergency had arisen there.

Her involvement also better explains her hesitancy in coming forward.   She took an enormous gamble in doing that.   The police might have decided to go after her too or she might have faced liability for malicious prosecution.   I don't think being jilted was enough to explain her actions.

Anyway, if she made up her account, she sure did a bad job of keeping herself out of it.   Even taken at face value she was admitting very serious offences involving concealment and assistance following the crime.  It is remarkable that she was not prosecuted for those but, maybe not, as it was in nobody's interests to pursue the question of her involvement - not Bamber's and not the cops'.

Whether Bamber received a fair trial is a separate and important question on which I have not formed a strong opinion due to not reading enough about it.   I've read the 2002 appeal which describes and then dismisses a litany of errors and inadequacies in the conduct of the case.   There are substantial concerns about the provenance of 'the' moderator, the state of Sheila's body when found and so on.   It beggars belief that the scene was cleared of blood stained carpet and wallpaper the next day and the cretinous fumbling of Essex police, even to the extent of being unable to write down the time correctly, is truly staggering.

Nonetheless, through all that fog of blundering incompetence and perhaps worse, the theory that seems to fit best is that he did it with her knowledge and assistance as far as the alibi is concerned.   That's where I am with this one.

Good post AL - we certainly think along the same lines!
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Offline lookout

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2015, 11:53:AM »
JM was just purely " dragged along " with those who were in the majority. Had she not been " dumped " it would have been an entirely different story. My guess is that she knows to this day that Jeremy isn't guilty but remains in a difficult position as regards those who pushed for his conviction.

Offline Anglolawyer

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2015, 11:55:AM »
Good post AL - we certainly think along the same lines!
Thanks for this and the other comments.

I wanted to add that Mugford and Bamber were in a Mexican stand off by the beginning of September.   He might be arrested at any point and decide to drag her down with him, his erratic and inappropriate behaviour becoming perhaps alarming (such as offering to sell intimate photographs of Sheila to the NotW).   In that scenario it would be curtains for her.   She certainly could not say 'oh, I was meaning to tell you what really happened but I just hadn't got round to it'.

In one of her interviews she can be heard to say something like 'I was not afraid of Jeremy, but he became afraid of me and then I became afraid of him'.   That puts it very well.   IMO she had to go to the police to save herself.   He (allegedly) threatened her that he would take her with him if she grassed.   I find that credible too.   She royally stitched him up with the avid and credulous assistance of DS Jones et al, the CPS and the DPP.

Offline nugnug

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2015, 11:57:AM »
well if she thought they had evedence to convict jeremy anyway she had no chioce but to ethere give evedence or risk being charged as an acomplice.

Offline Caroline

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2015, 12:21:PM »
Thanks for this and the other comments.

I wanted to add that Mugford and Bamber were in a Mexican stand off by the beginning of September.   He might be arrested at any point and decide to drag her down with him, his erratic and inappropriate behaviour becoming perhaps alarming (such as offering to sell intimate photographs of Sheila to the NotW).   In that scenario it would be curtains for her.   She certainly could not say 'oh, I was meaning to tell you what really happened but I just hadn't got round to it'.

In one of her interviews she can be heard to say something like 'I was not afraid of Jeremy, but he became afraid of me and then I became afraid of him'.   That puts it very well.   IMO she had to go to the police to save herself.   He (allegedly) threatened her that he would take her with him if she grassed.   I find that credible too.   She royally stitched him up with the avid and credulous assistance of DS Jones et al, the CPS and the DPP.

I don't think Jeremy was completely honest with her though. When she went to the police, she told them the hit man story. I think Jeremy told her this just in case she did double cross him - on checking the story, they would see that it didn't hold up and Julie would be discredited. He didn't tell her key things about the crime either - leaving out the most important cock-up - the two shots to Sheila.

If Julie was part of the plan, he must be dying to say something, but if he did - he'd have to confess. Stuck between a rock and a hard place!
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Offline lookout

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2015, 12:26:PM »
JM would have been well informed of her own fate if she hadn't " played ball "
Pity the jury hadn't known !

Offline lookout

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2015, 12:28:PM »
As the law stands,jury members have to go through a CRB check. What about others ?

Offline maggie

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2015, 12:30:PM »
I don't think Jeremy was completely honest with her though. When she went to the police, she told them the hit man story. I think Jeremy told her this just in case she did double cross him - on checking the story, they would see that it didn't hold up and Julie would be discredited. He didn't tell her key things about the crime either - leaving out the most important cock-up - the two shots to Sheila.

If Julie was part of the plan, he must be dying to say something, but if he did - he'd have to confess. Stuck between a rock and a hard place!
Yes, have always thought it strange that he has never really attacked her. He did comment to a journalist that 'she shouldn't have done that' and his eyes filled with tears, seemed incongruous.
She saw him so close to Brett and must have feared for her position and 'share' so she shopped him to save herself and punish him, she may as well have killed him, IMO she was as bad as him.

Offline Anglolawyer

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2015, 12:33:PM »
I don't think Jeremy was completely honest with her though. When she went to the police, she told them the hit man story. I think Jeremy told her this just in case she did double cross him - on checking the story, they would see that it didn't hold up and Julie would be discredited. He didn't tell her key things about the crime either - leaving out the most important cock-up - the two shots to Sheila.

If Julie was part of the plan, he must be dying to say something, but if he did - he'd have to confess. Stuck between a rock and a hard place!
That's a neat idea, that he palmed her off with the hit man story in order to be able to repudiate her if she betrayed him.   And you are right, probably, that he is obliged by his own condition to maintain a life of silence about her.   Maybe he will crack in the end when he has nothing more to lose.

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2015, 12:33:PM »
Yes, have always thought it strange that he has never really attacked her. He did comment to a journalist that 'she shouldn't have done that' and his eyes filled with tears, seemed incongruous.
She saw him so close to Brett and must have feared for her position and 'share' so she shopped him to save herself and punish him, she may as well have killed him, IMO she was as bad as him.

Nah.... difference is she didn't murder anyone let alone two children. 

John

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2015, 12:34:PM »
That's a neat idea, that he palmed her off with the hit man story in order to be able to repudiate her if she betrayed him.   And you are right, probably, that he is obliged by his own condition to maintain a life of silence about her.   Maybe he will crack in the end when he has nothing more to lose.

Problem for Jerry is if he shops Julie he seals his own fate.

Offline nugnug

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Re: Anglolawyer's theory
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2015, 12:35:PM »
yes she did if shes telling the truth shes as guilty as bamber.