Neville's call to Jeremy. A 1% likelihood ?

[Adam]

Sorry it was 40, not 60.  Which is still a lot.

1: Jeremy may not answer. Regardless of whether he heard the phone ringing or not.

2:Neville may not have time to make phone calls. Sheila was going crazy. There were five people inside WHF who were the priority.

3: Jeremy may not answer for a long time as was 'sleeping like a log'.

4: Neville may only get the answering machine.

5: Neville will assume the answering machine is switched on. Making it impossible for Jeremy to answer the phone within 3 - 8 rings as he was 'sleeping like a log'.

6: Jeremy did not like Sheila or understand her illness.  So would just make things worse when trying to talk her down.

7: Sheila did not like Jeremy.

8: Another adult, June was available at WHF.

9: The rifle was not powerful, being used for vermin. Neville would know this. So Neville would tackle Sheila prior to shots being fired.

10: Sheila had 'limited'/ no experience with guns. So Neville would tackle Sheila prior to shots being fired.

11: Neville could restrain Sheila easily. If fully or even partially fit.

12: Neville and June together could restrain Sheila easily. If fully or even partially fit.

13: Jeremy was three miles away, not dressed or awake. 

14: The police had been called by Neville ten minutes earlier. According to Jeremy.

15: Neville would be putting his only son in danger.

16: Jeremy may be scared to go over. He told Liz Rimmington that Sheila was going 'back to the nut house' and told the police she had committed child abuse. Now Neville had told him she had 'gone crazy' with a gun.

17: Jeremy did not have a key to WHF so would have to smash the door down, or smash a window. Or shout through the letter box. Making Sheila more excitable.  Neville may not have been aware that Jeremy could get in through windows.

18: Sheila would not be pleased to see him.

19: Jeremy would be reluctant to rush over if answering the phone. Having poor relations with all the family.

20: Jeremy may refuse to go over. Being tired and upset at being woken.Lookout said it was common for Sheila to have 'one of her turns' so he may have decided to go back to bed.

21: Jeremy may not rush over. Maybe wasting up to 26 minutes doing strange things.

22: Jeremy may just ring nearby farm workers and tell them to go over. Something Neville could do himself and may consider a better option.

23: Jeremy may just ring the Foakes's and tell them to go over. Something Neville could do and may consider a better option. 

24: Neville calling someone would antagonise Sheila. She may even brutally beat someone.

25: Neville could call the Foakes's. Who were two adults living at WHF.

26: There was no time to make any calls if Sheila had 'gone' crazy with a gun. 

27: When there was time to make a call Neville had the option of restraining Sheila. Getting June to assist.

28: There was no time to wait for someone to arrive. Sheila had 'gone 'crazy'.

28: Relations between the two were poor and getting worse.   After Jeremy robbed the caravan site and spent the money.

30: Neville would be prepared to take a torso bullet in order to restrain Sheila. Knowing the gun was for shooting vermin/rabbits and a torso shot would not kill him.

31: The kitchen phone was downstairs. Meaning everyone would be left upstairs. Unless Sheila had accompanied him downstairs.

32: If the answering machine was switched off, as his supporters claim. Jeremy would not hear his downstairs phone. If his bedroom door was shut.

33: Neville was bigger and stronger than Jeremy and the head of the family.

34: Sheila would have to let Neville open the door when Jeremy arrives. Or Neville would have to put himself in danger by getting to the front door against Sheila's wishes.

35: Sheila is more likely to fire bullets if more people start pressurising her and arriving on the scene.

36: Neville would be aware that he was the person who always had most success in calming down an excited Sheila. If he couldn't, then someone who thought Sheila was a 'looney' certainly could not.

37: Jeremy was not known to be especially brave. So may refuse to go anywhere near the inside of WHF. Preferring to stay 50 yards from the entrance.  This is what happened.

38: Neville would be implicating his son if there were any injuries or fatalities. As Jeremy would be first on the scene and first witness. This is what happened.

39: Jeremy was not known for being especially brave. So may have just phoned the police, which Neville had the option of doing.  Neville had either already done this. Or wanted to keep things private. Jeremy did in fact call the police.

40:  It is not standard practice to call relations on the phone at 3am when you're life is in danger. There are no other examples of this happening

[Adam]

With the forensic and circumstantial against him, together with every bit of common sense pointing towards his guilt, it is amazing how determined he is.

[guest154]

With the forensic and circumstantial against him, together with every bit of common sense pointing towards his guilt, it is amazing how determined he is.

It's even more amazing how many people fall for it. Whilst he is able to con people and get their attention and support he is always going to carry on.

[Adam]

There is a thread on why he protests his innocence.

Psychologically it is probably a combination of what people have said


He is able to blank the crime out of his mind. Especially after 30 years.

He doesn't feel he did anything too wrong. Doing Colin a favour, taking his rightful inheritance etc.

He suffers from Narcarcisstic Immunity. Believing he is special and sheer force of personality will see him win.

He is upset that he wasn't able put one over on his family and his plan was not 'watertight'. A release would reverse that.

Admitting to the crime would make him look stupid. Especially after protesting his innocence.

He likes the attention and support.

[Jane]

.....................He likes the attention and support.

NOTHING in psychology is black or white, but it's very possible that Jeremy FEELS himself more looked up to, to be given more respect, to be more cared about within the confined space of prison, where he has nothing, than in the outside world where money in bucket loads was necessary for him to attain it.

[Jan]

Of course it is easy to say the call from Neville may or may not have happened - however there is no mathematical solution to the answer because If Sheila had just grabbed a gun and had not fired a shot then Neville was not going to sit there weighing  up the pros and cons of what he was going to do . IF Jeremy is innocent its obvious that Neville did not think she was going to carry out whatever threat she was making. And because of all the time discrepancies including those of EP ( who were the one party who should have 100% no doubt in their timings ) then it is extremely hard to unravel the sequence.

Assuming what Neville would have been thinking or doing based on an assumption of what might have been happening at that precise moment is a bit of an insult in my opinion.

Because IF Jeremy is innocent both  he and Neville made big mistakes.

[Adam]

If Neville didn't think Sheila would use the gun, why didn't he just take the gun off her ? Although it's just as likely he would do this anyway.

It seemed like Neville did believe Sheila was going to use the rifle, going by the 11 words he said to Jeremy. As it happened, she did.

Why would Neville phone both Bamber and the police ? Bamber said Neville liked to keep things private. Which obviously explained why Bamber instantly phoned the police. Although he  is now claiming Neville also phoned the police. 

[lookout]

 The dog which was kept outside bothers me. Because farmworkers were in and around the farmhouse on a daily basis,the dog would have been well accustomed to the comings and goings of the family and the farmworkers. Why was it barking ? I'm aware that Crispy-type dogs bark at the least thing,but nevertheless unless something was going on even that wouldn't have been barking as it was.
Both dogs knew Jeremy so if it had been him getting in through a window,Crispy would possibly have barked anyway,but the Labrador wouldn't have.
How far from the farmhouse was the area where the Labrador was kept ?

[lookout]

Neither dog appeared to have been barking when Neville made the call to Jeremy or he'd have mentioned hearing it/them.

[Jane]

But if the call never happened, factoring dogs into the story probably wasn't something which occurred to Jeremy.

[Jan]

If Neville didn't think Sheila would use the gun, why didn't he just take the gun off her ? Although it's just as likely he would do this anyway.

It seemed like Neville did believe Sheila was going to use the rifle, going by the 11 words he said to Jeremy. As it happened, she did.

Why would Neville phone both Bamber and the police ? Bamber said Neville liked to keep things private. Which obviously explained why Bamber instantly phoned the police. Although he  is now claiming Neville also phoned the police.

I thought you said that Sheila when faced with a gun held by Jeremy would just agree to lie down in exactly the right position to make it look like suicide? Why ? because when someone is faced with a gun they just do as they are told?

So you have to use the same argument - As I have said before if you were faced with a 12 year old with a rifle I don't think your first instinct would be to take the gun off the child .

How do you know that Sheila was not pointing the gun at Nevilles head to make him phone Jeremy because she wanted to shoot him to?

How do you know she was not just waving the gun around and not actually shooting at that stage?

We have no idea of the sequence of what happened.

And how did his words indicate she was going to fire the gun? Only in retrospect can you say that ? For all we know "crazy" could be a word Neville used when she was having one of her episodes. You were always saying she showed no signs of violence  so she cant be guilty ( not true actually)  But if that was the case why on earth would Jeremy have any idea she could shoot the whole family ? So why would he immediately think this was a matter of life or death.

[Jan]

Everything you have said, was Jeremy 'setting the scene' 

or possibly not 

[lookout]

Neither dog appeared to have been barking when Neville made the call to Jeremy or he'd have mentioned hearing it/them.

Pity we hadn't known what time those dogs started to bark !

[Jane]

But if the call never happened, factoring dogs into the story probably wasn't something which occurred to Jeremy.

As I said.............................

[maggie]

I thought you said that Sheila when faced with a gun held by Jeremy would just agree to lie down in exactly the right position to make it look like suicide? Why ? because when someone is faced with a gun they just do as they are told?

So you have to use the same argument - As I have said before if you were faced with a 12 year old with a rifle I don't think your first instinct would be to take the gun off the child .

How do you know that Sheila was not pointing the gun at Nevilles head to make him phone Jeremy because she wanted to shoot him to?

How do you know she was not just waving the gun around and not actually shooting at that stage?

We have no idea of the sequence of what happened.

And how did his words indicate she was going to fire the gun? Only in retrospect can you say that ? For all we know "crazy" could be a word Neville used when she was having one of her episodes. You were always saying she showed no signs of violence  so she cant be guilty ( not true actually)  But if that was the case why on earth would Jeremy have any idea she could shoot the whole family ? So why would he immediately think this was a matter of life or death.

Good post Jan, fair comment imo