Neville's call to Jeremy. A 1% likelihood ?

[Adam]

After staging the scene at WHF, the next stage was to telephone the police. To tell them Neville had called him. After looking at this in more detail, is there now just a 1% chance this happened ? 

1: Neville's decision to phone Bamber.

Well there are 60 reasons why Neville would not call Bamber. A thread has been created. He had lots of better options.

Neville obviously had time to consider other options. Otherwise he wouldn't have phoned Bamber. He wouldn't have time to think of all 60 reasons to not telephone Bamber. But a handful would flash across his mind. Resulting in him not phoning Bamber.

2: Bamber answering Neville's call.

Bamber told police he was 'sleeping like a log' at home.

If we are generous and say the phone rang 8 times before the answering machine worked, that is still less than 20 seconds. Bamber was upstairs and asleep. Perhaps with his bedroom door shut. He would almost certainly have not heard the phone and certainly would not have got to the phone before Neville had left a message.

Supporters say he would have turned the answering machine off when he got home. This is not credible. However if it was not on, it would be several minutes before a ringing phone would wake and entice Bamber to walk downstairs and answer. It would be poor judgement by Neville to wait that long in his situation. He had several better options.

3: Neville's 11 words to Bamber.

After deciding to ring Bamber, then wait several minutes for an answer, it is surprising Neville said just 11 words to him. The phone then going dead.

4: Bamber's reaction to Neville's call:

No one knows what they would do in this situation. A father calling a son at around 3am due to a crazy and dangerous daughter is a one off occurrence in England. As far as I am aware. However the consensus is that his actions were not credible.

He said he wasted time and called Julie to 'hear a friendly voice'. 

Wasted time looking in the phone directly for the third and forth furthest away police stations, because 'he didn't think it would make any difference how quickly the police arrived'.

Didn't dial 999 because 'it didn't occur to him'.

Didn't go straight over to WHF although Neville had rang him and said 'please come over'.

Put several layers of clothes on and drove very slowly to WHF because he 'wanted to arrive after the police'.


Do other people now believe there is now only a 1% chance Neville's call happened ? And is 1% enough for 'reasonable doubt' ?

[nugnug]

even if your calculation are accurate that still means it could be true.

[Adam]

Just one of the above things happening in isolation is very unlikely.

However all of them happening together in quick succession is not impossible, but the next best thing, with only a 1% likelihood.

Providing Sheila was holding a rifle of course.

[Adam]

even if your calculation are accurate that still means it could be true.

Would 1% be enough for you to have reasonable doubt and vote 'not guilty' ?

If so the law needs to change. Jurors having to be sure 'beyond any doubt'.

[lookout]

 More than 1% I'd have said.
Jeremy was proved right over the fostering. He'd also owned up to having used the rifle the night before when he heard rabbits ( fingerprint ) but what were Sheila's prints doing on that and at least two other guns ? No answer to that one.
 He'd also mentioned that there was another " way in " to the property------through a window.
Jeremy need not, and shouldn't have told of these things because he played right into the hands of the law who were much cleverer in a cunning sort of a way than he was at the time and he'd unknowingly talked himself into a crime which he didn't do.

So it seemed that the truth went against him and what he'd said was used to convict him as everyone took it as an admission to murdering his family 

[Caroline]

More than 1% I'd have said.
Jeremy was proved right over the fostering. He'd also owned up to having used the rifle the night before when he heard rabbits ( fingerprint ) but what were Sheila's prints doing on that and at least two other guns ? No answer to that one.
 He'd also mentioned that there was another " way in " to the property------through a window.
Jeremy need not, and shouldn't have told of these things because he played right into the hands of the law who were much cleverer in a cunning sort of a way than he was at the time and he'd unknowingly talked himself into a crime which he didn't do.

So it seemed that the truth went against him and what he'd said was used to convict him as everyone took it as an admission to murdering his family 

Everything you have said, was Jeremy 'setting the scene'   

[Jan]

After staging the scene at WHF, the next stage was to telephone the police. To tell them Neville had called him. After looking at this in more detail, is there now just a 1% chance this happened ? 

1: Neville's decision to phone Bamber.

Well there are 60 reasons why Neville would not call Bamber. A thread has been created. He had lots of better options.

Neville obviously had time to consider other options. Otherwise he wouldn't have phoned Bamber. He wouldn't have time to think of all 60 reasons to not telephone Bamber. But a handful would flash across his mind. Resulting in him not phoning Bamber.

2: Bamber answering Neville's call.

Bamber told police he was 'sleeping like a log' at home.

If we are generous and say the phone rang 8 times before the answering machine worked, that is still less than 20 seconds. Bamber was upstairs and asleep. Perhaps with his bedroom door shut. He would almost certainly have not heard the phone and certainly would not have got to the phone before Neville had left a message.

Supporters say he would have turned the answering machine off when he got home. This is not credible. However if it was not on, it would be several minutes before a ringing phone would wake and entice Bamber to walk downstairs and answer. It would be poor judgement by Neville to wait that long in his situation. He had several better options.

3: Neville's 11 words to Bamber.

After deciding to ring Bamber, then wait several minutes for an answer, it is surprising Neville said just 11 words to him. The phone then going dead.

4: Bamber's reaction to Neville's call:

No one knows what they would do in this situation. A father calling a son at around 3am due to a crazy and dangerous daughter is a one off occurrence in England. As far as I am aware. However the consensus is that his actions were not credible.

He said he wasted time and called Julie to 'hear a friendly voice'. 

Wasted time looking in the phone directly for the third and forth furthest away police stations, because 'he didn't think it would make any difference how quickly the police arrived'.

Didn't dial 999 because 'it didn't occur to him'.

Didn't go straight over to WHF although Neville had rang him and said 'please come over'.

Put several layers of clothes on and drove very slowly to WHF because he 'wanted to arrive after the police'.


Do other people now believe there is now only a 1% chance Neville's call happened ? And is 1% enough for 'reasonable doubt' ?

Its exactly posts like this that keep me away. One sided and full of (60 at least ) assumptions .

Preaching instead of discussing .

together with other threads on here the last few days I am afraid the bottom of the pit is being reached.

[Jane]

Its exactly posts like this that keep me away. One sided and full of (60 at least ) assumptions .

Preaching instead of discussing .

together with other threads on here the last few days I am afraid the bottom of the pit is being reached.

Jan, believe me, you're not alone in thinking that. Over the last couple of days, EVERY line of human decency has been breached.

[lookout]

Everything you have said, was Jeremy 'setting the scene' 

Not I. It's the way EP interpreted it as their way of getting their man. They had nothing else. A few twisted words and Bob's your uncle. Right name for that saying too. 

[Caroline]

Its exactly posts like this that keep me away. One sided and full of (60 at least ) assumptions .

Preaching instead of discussing .

together with other threads on here the last few days I am afraid the bottom of the pit is being reached.

Totally!!

[nugnug]

Would 1% be enough for you to have reasonable doubt and vote 'not guilty' ?

If so the law needs to change. Jurors having to be sure 'beyond any doubt'.

if theres a  percent chance of somthing happing then  thats actully very likely to happen someone at some time will be the one out of hundred if you had said a millon to 1 then you would have a point.

[Caroline]

if theres a  percent chance of somthing happing then  thats actully very likely to happen someone at some time will be the one out of hundred if you had said a millon to 1 then you would have a point.

It's a billion to 1.

[Jan]

even if your calculation are accurate that still means it could be true.

its not 1%

Adam is making that up out of his own head.

Just look at the behaviour of the police when they arrived then you will get  a clearer picture. For all they know Sheila could have been threatening to shoot herself - or even just waving the gun around. They had not a clue about a mass murder. They thought they were going just to calm down a sick woman.

[Caroline]

its not 1%

Adam is making that up out of his own head.

Just look at the behaviour of the police when they arrived then you will get  a clearer picture. For all they know Sheila could have been threatening to shoot herself - or even just waving the gun around. They had not a clue about a mass murder. They thought they were going just to calm down a sick woman.

Well, they couldn't know until they entered the house but until they have assessed the situation, it is police procedure (where fire arms are concerned) not to enter. 

[nugnug]

i dont see how the likelyhood can be caclated in number you can say its unlikely or very unlikely

but thats all.