Author Topic: Russia - worrying?  (Read 365187 times)

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Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2370 on: January 29, 2023, 07:04:PM »

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2371 on: January 29, 2023, 07:08:PM »
If you and your cold warrior chums succeed in extending NATO, including allowing Ukraine to join, where do you think it will end?  If Ukraine joins NATO and then a single Russian bomb lands on Ukraine, NATO countries are obliged to intervene and there will be WWIII.  That will end in nuclear war and thus annihilation of civilisation as we know it.   Is that what you and the rest of your allies want?
NGB1066 do you think the West will ever accept the Russian occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, with the economic effects of sanctions hitting working-class Russians hardest?

Offline ngb1066

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2372 on: January 29, 2023, 08:50:PM »
NGB1066 do you think the West will ever accept the Russian occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, with the economic effects of sanctions hitting working-class Russians hardest?

I think the West will not readily accept Russian control of any of them, but ultimately there will be some form of de facto acceptance, based partly upon the fact that sanctions against Russia have not had the desired effect (and in some ways have had unexpected consequences), but mainly upon the fact that Russia can only be pushed back at enormous financial cost, which is unlikely to continue indefinitely.


Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2373 on: January 29, 2023, 10:16:PM »
I think the West will not readily accept Russian control of any of them, but ultimately there will be some form of de facto acceptance, based partly upon the fact that sanctions against Russia have not had the desired effect (and in some ways have had unexpected consequences), but mainly upon the fact that Russia can only be pushed back at enormous financial cost, which is unlikely to continue indefinitely.
   The West will have no say in the matter of the future of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia or Crimea. They are gone forever now. A more relevant question, in light of reality on the ground, is what will Russia allow NATO/Kiev to retain control of?
    Ukraine will be, in my opinion, a land locked rump state-at best. Odessa will vote on their status-after the surrender of Kiev.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2374 on: January 30, 2023, 12:00:AM »
If you and your cold warrior chums succeed in extending NATO, including allowing Ukraine to join, where do you think it will end?  If Ukraine joins NATO and then a single Russian bomb lands on Ukraine, NATO countries are obliged to intervene and there will be WWIII.  That will end in nuclear war and thus annihilation of civilisation as we know it.   Is that what you and the rest of your allies want?
   I agree wholly with the sentiment expressed and the inherent danger in the actions currently being taken by dangerous "cold war warriors". Their aims are undoubtedly attempting to escalate to such a situation with their criminal provocations. That being said, however, i do not think that Article 5 is what it is portayed as, ngb. There is a widely held view that it is nothing more than hot air. The full text below with the relevant part highlighted;

Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .


    In NATO's entire history Article 5 has been invoked only once, after the 9/11 attacks. "Such action as it deems necessary", renders it meaningless. The action deemed necessary, is decided by each member individually. Could be supplying bandages. Whatever "action as it deems necessary" is all each state is obliged to do.
    Before Article 5 can be invoked - Article 4 must be launched.

Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.


    When Poland attempted to invoke Art. 5- a few weeks ago- after the "stray?" Ukrainian Air Defence missile landed in Poland, with the Ukrainians claiming it was a Russian missile- It was quickly slapped down.

    The fractures within NATO showed in the last Ramstein meeting. The UK along with Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Slovakia and the three Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia signed a "statement" The Talinn Pledge. Where are all the other NATO countries?
    Article 5 is spoken about in the media-encouraged by government and intel- in terms that are not true. An attack on a NATO state does not commit NATO countries to an automatic all out war. The Talinn 9 "statement" is a stark example of the fissures. There is no chance that Turkiye would join an attack on Russia. "Old Europe" is conspicuous by it's absence from the Talinn "agreement". As are the US. NATO is toothless without the US and Turkiye. The militaries of most of the NATO vassals are small and insignificant.
    Let's imagine that Russia launch missiles to interdict arms in Poland. Does anyone believe that NATO dare openly go to war against Russia? There is a reason they use proxies for their provocations. The minute that NATO countries declare that they are at war with Russia is about 5 minutes before a few missiles start hitting military installations and decision making centres of any country willing to declare open war on Russia.
    The NATO meeting at Ramstein tells all you need to know.
 

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2375 on: January 30, 2023, 02:01:AM »
     The "Talinn 9 statement" committed to much more than defence of Ukraine territory and explicitly called for escalation and a direct threat to the separatist oblasts and Crimea. Below from the Talinn statement;

We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.

    There is no NATO unity. Who will be the first to go? Hungary? Turkiye? Turkiye have made clear via many official statements that they will not be fighting Russia on behalf of NATO. Turkiye is the second largest military in NATO, behind only USA. The 3rd, 4th and 5th are Germany, France and Italy- all conspicuous by their absence from the "Talinn pledge".
    It is UK and a bunch of pissy vassal states, no doubt at the behest of the US, issuing cheques their arses can't cash.
    The inability of NATO to do anything is becoming increasingly obvious. Beyond delaying the inevitable by sacrificing ever more men and money, NATO are impotent.
   

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2376 on: January 30, 2023, 04:48:AM »
Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YkGrKQXZxE

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2377 on: January 30, 2023, 07:12:AM »

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2378 on: January 30, 2023, 07:20:AM »
I think the West will not readily accept Russian control of any of them, but ultimately there will be some form of de facto acceptance, based partly upon the fact that sanctions against Russia have not had the desired effect (and in some ways have had unexpected consequences), but mainly upon the fact that Russia can only be pushed back at enormous financial cost, which is unlikely to continue indefinitely.

Political will in Russia is just as important, Ukraine is fighting for survival, Russia is fighting for imperialism. If the Russian people are OK with 250,000 - 500,000 casualties then sure, Russia can hold its gains. But will it get that far before they revolt? We shall see.

Offline killingeve

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2379 on: January 30, 2023, 11:30:AM »
     The "Talinn 9 statement" committed to much more than defence of Ukraine territory and explicitly called for escalation and a direct threat to the separatist oblasts and Crimea. Below from the Talinn statement;

We recognise that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have. Together we will continue supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. By bringing together Allies and partners, we are ensuring the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible. The new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defence, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.

    There is no NATO unity. Who will be the first to go? Hungary? Turkiye? Turkiye have made clear via many official statements that they will not be fighting Russia on behalf of NATO. Turkiye is the second largest military in NATO, behind only USA. The 3rd, 4th and 5th are Germany, France and Italy- all conspicuous by their absence from the "Talinn pledge".
    It is UK and a bunch of pissy vassal states, no doubt at the behest of the US, issuing cheques their arses can't cash.
    The inability of NATO to do anything is becoming increasingly obvious. Beyond delaying the inevitable by sacrificing ever more men and money, NATO are impotent.   

Hi gringo.  I've recently been listening to some youtube vids from James Rickards which seem to offer a different view point from Western mainstream media.  Are you familiar with him/his views?  If so what do you think?  Thanks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards

Offline killingeve

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2380 on: January 30, 2023, 11:31:AM »
Political will in Russia is just as important, Ukraine is fighting for survival, Russia is fighting for imperialism. If the Russian people are OK with 250,000 - 500,000 casualties then sure, Russia can hold its gains. But will it get that far before they revolt? We shall see.

Hi David1819.  I've recently been listening to some youtube vids from James Rickards which seem to offer a different view point from Western mainstream media.  Are you familiar with him/his views?  If so what do you think?  Thanks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2381 on: January 30, 2023, 12:59:PM »
David what do you think of Jim Rickard's views at 3 mins in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHm7xcmSLj8&t=444s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Rickards

Pity JR didn't sort out his hair for the vid  :'(
   Gave it a listen, CC. He is brutally realistic in his assessment-

  "Talking about the US, UK, Europe generally- what do they not know? They don't know very much because we are being lied to incessantly"  He then describes how the main media outlets are mouthpieces for the Whitehouse and intel agencies.

    At 2 mins;
  "Russia failed to achieve their initial gains, they didn't get Kiev, they didn't decapitate the regime, they're strung out, they're demoralised. Ukraine's on the advance, they took back Kherson... they've made major advances in the Donbass, they've got the US weapons, the Germans are sending tanks, the UK are sending some Challengers, keep sending in money, sending in arms, give it time and we'll take it(the territory) all back. Putin will be deposed, if he doesn't have cancer already. We're even going to take back Crimea and wave the flag- that's what you hear"

     "...so what's actually going on? Russia's winning the war-They're winning it with something like 100,000 troops that conduct something like-bigger than a police operation-it was envisioned- that was provoked by the US. The US and UK have wanted this war since 2008. George Bush gave a speech in 2008 and he said Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO...Couple of months later Putin invaded Georgia...cut the country in half...demolish the military... they're not joining NATO."


    "...come forward to 2014... CIA and MI6 precipitate one of those colour revolutions-the Maidan square revolution... I don't use the word Nazi lightly and no-one should but these are neo Nazis. They say so-look at their insignia, the Azov battalion. they were on the the Nazi side fighting the communists in WW2. They love the Nazis because they drove the communists back until Stalin took it back... so that's who you're supporting...It's one of the poorest countries in europe, it's the most corrupt, Zelensky is a puppet and behind him are some real hard core 21st century Nazi sympathisers-I'll put it that way. So that's who you're supporting..."

     The truth is seeping out and it will become a deluge soon, CC. Russia's "unprovoked" invasion", has been provoked for a long time by the West. Russia have self evidently used the time to prepare much more wisely than the corrupt Western puppets. It only ends one way-NATO and the West will agree to the security guarantees put forward by Russia in December 2021.
     A new multi-polar world is being born regardless of the attempts by NATO (enforcers for the current criminally abused system) to prevent it. The support and arming of Nazis demonstrates the moral degeneracy of the West.

Offline killingeve

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2382 on: January 30, 2023, 02:33:PM »
   Gave it a listen, CC. He is brutally realistic in his assessment-

  "Talking about the US, UK, Europe generally- what do they not know? They don't know very much because we are being lied to incessantly"  He then describes how the main media outlets are mouthpieces for the Whitehouse and intel agencies.

    At 2 mins;
  "Russia failed to achieve their initial gains, they didn't get Kiev, they didn't decapitate the regime, they're strung out, they're demoralised. Ukraine's on the advance, they took back Kherson... they've made major advances in the Donbass, they've got the US weapons, the Germans are sending tanks, the UK are sending some Challengers, keep sending in money, sending in arms, give it time and we'll take it(the territory) all back. Putin will be deposed, if he doesn't have cancer already. We're even going to take back Crimea and wave the flag- that's what you hear"

     "...so what's actually going on? Russia's winning the war-They're winning it with something like 100,000 troops that conduct something like-bigger than a police operation-it was envisioned- that was provoked by the US. The US and UK have wanted this war since 2008. George Bush gave a speech in 2008 and he said Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO...Couple of months later Putin invaded Georgia...cut the country in half...demolish the military... they're not joining NATO."


    "...come forward to 2014... CIA and MI6 precipitate one of those colour revolutions-the Maidan square revolution... I don't use the word Nazi lightly and no-one should but these are neo Nazis. They say so-look at their insignia, the Azov battalion. they were on the the Nazi side fighting the communists in WW2. They love the Nazis because they drove the communists back until Stalin took it back... so that's who you're supporting...It's one of the poorest countries in europe, it's the most corrupt, Zelensky is a puppet and behind him are some real hard core 21st century Nazi sympathisers-I'll put it that way. So that's who you're supporting..."

     The truth is seeping out and it will become a deluge soon, CC. Russia's "unprovoked" invasion", has been provoked for a long time by the West. Russia have self evidently used the time to prepare much more wisely than the corrupt Western puppets. It only ends one way-NATO and the West will agree to the security guarantees put forward by Russia in December 2021.
     A new multi-polar world is being born regardless of the attempts by NATO (enforcers for the current criminally abused system) to prevent it. The support and arming of Nazis demonstrates the moral degeneracy of the West.

Thanks gringo.  I thought he probably talked a lot of sense about what's actually going on and the background to it.  Its always good to get different perspectives and a positive of social media in that it is easy to access the likes of JR. 

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2383 on: January 30, 2023, 05:01:PM »
It only ends one way-NATO and the West will agree to the security guarantees put forward by Russia in December 2021.


How exactly is a country with an economy smaller than Texas, struggling to take the town of Bakhmut and unable to provide basic plumbing and sanitary means to 20% of its population, going achieve forcing NATO to withdraw membership to the 14 member states that joined after 1999?

« Last Edit: January 30, 2023, 05:03:PM by David1819 »

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2384 on: January 30, 2023, 05:31:PM »
Thanks gringo.  I thought he probably talked a lot of sense about what's actually going on and the background to it. Its always good to get different perspectives and a positive of social media in that it is easy to access the likes of JR.
   How has listening to people such as Jim Rickard changed your perspective, CC? I get the feeling, myself, that a few uncomfortable truths are getting a bit too difficult to cover up and whitewash and which is encouraging more people to dig a little deeper.
     Highlighted in red- Nothing could be more true, CC. More people should venture outside of their own echo chamber and listen to views and opinions that challenge their own world view. Hold it all up to scrutiny. It is the only way.