Author Topic: Russia - worrying?  (Read 364167 times)

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Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1290 on: March 19, 2022, 12:03:PM »
I don't think Russia is " weakened ". Don't believe what the papers/ news says.

Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1291 on: March 19, 2022, 02:40:PM »
The Guardian Australia stated that the Russian cosmonauts boarding ISS were wearing colours of the Ukraine flag.

guest29835

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1292 on: March 19, 2022, 05:00:PM »
The Hitler template is wrong, though it remains of relevance for other reasons.  Hitler's strategy was driven by ideas that came from deeper German history and academic geopolitics in Germany, and was also ideologically-motivated by opposition to Bolshevism.  He sought to conquer the East to establish living space for the Germanic peoples and the security of Germany and wider Europe.

Russia's strategy is not to conquer eastern Europe.  The invasion of Ukraine would end if the West gave the necessary assurances to Russia.  Like Germany, Russia has an interest in maintaining a sphere of influence in eastern Europe.  Halford Mackinder's theories are of some relevance.  Control of eastern Europe is pivotal in world geopolitics, but it is also important to the security of Russia itself.
 
NATO since the 1990s has spent considerable energy rolling back verbal assurances given to the former USSR that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO.  In response, Russia seeks to check NATO expansion where it can. 

What we can conclude from all this is that, in reality, we are witnessing two powers vying for control of eastern Europe.  Until maybe 2008, NATO has had the upper hand and the period 1991 to 2004 marked an expansion of NATO into the East and the Baltic while Russia recovered.  In 2008, Russia kicked back and invaded Georgia, thus preventing that country from joining NATO.  Then Russia took back the Crimea and we now have the Ukraine crisis. 

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1293 on: March 19, 2022, 05:38:PM »
The Hitler template is wrong, though it remains of relevance for other reasons.  Hitler's strategy was driven by ideas that came from deeper German history and academic geopolitics in Germany, and was also ideologically-motivated by opposition to Bolshevism.  He sought to conquer the East to establish living space for the Germanic peoples and the security of Germany and wider Europe.

Russia's strategy is not to conquer eastern Europe.  The invasion of Ukraine would end if the West gave the necessary assurances to Russia.  Like Germany, Russia has an interest in maintaining a sphere of influence in eastern Europe.  Halford Mackinder's theories are of some relevance.  Control of eastern Europe is pivotal in world geopolitics, but it is also important to the security of Russia itself.
 
NATO since the 1990s has spent considerable energy rolling back verbal assurances given to the former USSR that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO.  In response, Russia seeks to check NATO expansion where it can. 

What we can conclude from all this is that, in reality, we are witnessing two powers vying for control of eastern Europe.  Until maybe 2008, NATO has had the upper hand and the period 1991 to 2004 marked an expansion of NATO into the East and the Baltic while Russia recovered.  In 2008, Russia kicked back and invaded Georgia, thus preventing that country from joining NATO.  Then Russia took back the Crimea and we now have the Ukraine crisis.
I never claimed it to be a template. Once again you misinterpret what I wrote, either deliberately or through ignorance. Hitler wished to unite the German-speaking peoples, just as Putin sees Ukraine as part of the former Soviet Union, which broke away by chance as the Soviet empire disintegrated.

There were no assurances given by NATO on the point you assert. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1294 on: March 19, 2022, 06:43:PM »
Why was Gorbachev the only approachable president ? He was almost human.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1295 on: March 19, 2022, 06:48:PM »
Why was Gorbachev the only approachable president ? He was almost human.
The break-up of the Soviet Union appeared unthinkable in the 1970s, so rigid a system it seemed to be. I suppose following the death of three leaders within a short space of time the Politburo opted for a politician from a new generation, hence a new approach.

Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1296 on: March 19, 2022, 08:11:PM »
The break-up of the Soviet Union appeared unthinkable in the 1970s, so rigid a system it seemed to be. I suppose following the death of three leaders within a short space of time the Politburo opted for a politician from a new generation, hence a new approach.





What should happen now is give Putin what he wants----then shoot him.

guest29835

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1297 on: March 19, 2022, 11:54:PM »
I never claimed it to be a template. Once again you misinterpret what I wrote, either deliberately or through ignorance. Hitler wished to unite the German-speaking peoples, just as Putin sees Ukraine as part of the former Soviet Union, which broke away by chance as the Soviet empire disintegrated.

There were no assurances given by NATO on the point you assert. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

I wasn't necessarily addressing you in particular, as I never mentioned you, but in any event, I stand by the point I make about the different strategies.  I believe many people are falling into the trap of thinking that Russia is taking military action to 'invade and conquer', whereas that is not necessarily how things are seen in the Kremlin, where the strategy is more likely to be expansion of Russian influence and restoration of Russian soft power in a pivotal region.

The former USSR was given the assurances I mention in 1991.  As I clearly state above, the assurances were verbal and it was all documented.  We can argue back-and-forth over whether the assurances were or are enforceable, or whether a change in circumstances justified NATO in reneging on the understanding laid out, but the assurances were given.

Before accusing others of misreading your posts, please try to read more carefully.  Please also refrain from making things personal, such as accusing people of ignorance.  Thank you.

Online Roch

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1298 on: March 20, 2022, 09:06:AM »
Regarding the above, I'm not sure the 'empire argument' is linked to the former USSR. Is it not linked to some former period in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. It seems that there is an empire argument, a NATO argument and a denazification argument. Of the three, I suspect that latter has been stretched a bit. Behind the NATO argument seems to be a rationale that the US strives for global domination and that NATO is merely a tool of that aim.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2022, 09:07:AM by Roch »

Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1299 on: March 20, 2022, 10:11:AM »
It's only by a miracle that the transport systems haven't been put out of action. That would have been horrendous having nowhere to go and doesn't bear thinking.

Offline nugnug

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Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1301 on: March 20, 2022, 01:05:PM »
20,000 volunteers from 52 countries have taken up arms to help Ukraine, including Australia. They're all housed in training camps but most will shy away from cameras, identities being their greatest fear rather than being on the frontline.

Offline lookout

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1302 on: March 20, 2022, 01:13:PM »
The war veteran Mamuka Mamulashvili is in charge of all the foreign volunteers.
I wouldn't like to argue with him  :)

Offline Bubo bubo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1303 on: March 20, 2022, 02:37:PM »
It's only by a miracle that the transport systems haven't been put out of action. That would have been horrendous having nowhere to go and doesn't bear thinking.
Fortunately the Russians need the railway. They cannot move their men equipment, etc by road as we have seen and it is easily attacked. They will need a functioning rail system to keep control if they succeed

guest29835

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #1304 on: March 20, 2022, 03:24:PM »
Regarding the above, I'm not sure the 'empire argument' is linked to the former USSR. Is it not linked to some former period in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. It seems that there is an empire argument, a NATO argument and a denazification argument. Of the three, I suspect that latter has been stretched a bit. Behind the NATO argument seems to be a rationale that the US strives for global domination and that NATO is merely a tool of that aim.

Russia's sheer size makes her both powerful and vulnerable at one and the same time.  The Continental United States does not have this problem as she is out of the way with good natural defences - the Atlantic Ocean, the Isthmus of Panama, and Chukotka and Canada.  While Russia does have some natural defences, she can easily be surrounded, save for her northern Arctic coast.  Thus, Russia has to be interventionist, to an extent, whereas the United States does not have to be.

Yet the United States has gone to great efforts to limit the geographic Russophere and surround Russia with pro-NATO and pro-US countries.  What we might call 'strategic encirclement' became a particular problem for the former USSR with the advent of inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).  The US has worked to ensure that a US military presence and missile bases surround Russia on three sides.  Part of the reason for the US-led invasion of Afghanistan was to set up a pro-US regime on the southern border of CIS (pro-Russian) states.  To this end, NATO is unquestionably a tool of the US.  Certainly since NATO's expansion from the 1990s onwards this has been the case, as the smaller eastern European states will look to the United States in particular to provide the political guarantee of a nuclear shield and defensive support against what they perceive as an expansionist Russia. In exchange, the US - oh, sorry, NATO and the EU defence partnership - carries out 'military exercises' in eastern European and Baltic states.  In fact, the United States now has missile bases in eastern Europe.  Significantly, the United States includes Britain, as she is dependent on the United States entirely for her nuclear deterrent, which in effect makes Britain a client state of the US.  Not all other NATO member states will toe the line faithfully, but generally-speaking, Britain will do as the Americans say with few questions asked.

In short, what I am telling you so far is that NATO has evolved.  It began as a US-led alliance to counter the nuclear and conventional threat from the former USSR and its client states.  This is a defensive posture.  When the USSR fell, NATO should perhaps have been disbanded or reformed.  Instead, it expanded to an aggressive posture against the Russian Federation and the CIS.  That is the crux of it.

For a long part of its history in the 19th. and early 20th. centuries, the United States' geographical isolation led to a strong and popular domestic movement calling for strategic isolationism, with support from mainstream politicians.  During this period, Britain was the interventionist power in the world.  The counter position was typified by presidents like Woodrow Wilson, who was strongly interventionist, partly perhaps motivated by a wish to supplant Britain and its Empire with an American global hegemony.  The undercurrent of the United States keeping out of world affairs is still popular in provincial America and mainstream American politicians give lip service to it now and then.  For instance, George W. Bush ("We'll smoke him out of his cave") during the 2000 presidential election campaign seemed to lean towards isolationism in his foreign policy.  He can't have meant it, but it's popular among small 'c' conservative American voters, so American politicians often say it. Trump said much the same things and at points in his 2016 presidential election campaign threw the whole future of NATO into doubt due to his rhetoric.

Given the United States has an abundance of resources and has no need to intervene anywhere, one has to ask why is this just campaign rhetoric and not serious policy?  The reason I would suggest is simple: pure greed, along with a general wish to be 'top dog'.  There is also the subsidiary motivation of ideology.  The United States was founded on aggressive liberal idealistic principles, whereas its Mother Country, Britain, was a calmer society with a deep-rooted organic national history in which a more consensual - though not democratic - body politic had developed, and this was reflected in Britain's more commercial approach to Empire.  But there are also factors that it would not be politically-correct to discuss here.  The people who dominate the Washington Beltway are not 'Americans'.

Potsdam can be seen as a continuation of Versailles.  The aim was to hobble Germany, as Germany was perceived as Europe's aggressor.  A subtext to Potsdam was that the USSR was also seen as a threat.  This perhaps had its roots in what is now called the 'Soviet offensive plans controversy' (see Suvorov' book, Icebreaker).  In regard to that controversy, I think it is fair to say that the truth is somewhere in the middle: Stalin did want to take his chances and seize territory in the East, and Hitler wanted the same, and to an extent Hitler also wanted to pre-emptively counter a Soviet invasion threat, which explains Barbarossa.  And here we come to a distinction I make between Russian aggression and Western aggression.

The Soviets never formally annexed territory in the East, whereas Hitler's plan was to conquer and annex  the eastern territories to Germany.  Putin is not Hitler and a 'Hitler template' for his actions is wrong.  The simple fact is that Russia is already a vast territory but with a relatively low population and a stretched military and creaking infrastructure.  Putin's aim is not to conquer but to project power.  The invasion of Ukraine is one way of doing this by forcing a resolution of the Ukraine Question in Russia's favour.