Author Topic: Russia - worrying?  (Read 365192 times)

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Offline maggie

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #225 on: March 10, 2015, 07:03:PM »
Population records prior to WWII and post WWII reveal that something on the order of 50 million people living in the lands that were part of the USSR in 1945 had died during WWII or after WWII as a result of Soviet punishment.  The punished people include those who wanted freedom such as those in Ukraine, political opponents and people thought to have cooperated with the Germans. People in these classes were killed both during and after WWII.

More than 21 million Soviet troops died in the field-some who were shot by Soviet forces and some of the force was made up from people living in land other than land the Germans managed to capture.  It is estimated 20 million civilians died but some of these were a result of Stalin's actions though there is no way to tell how many.  There is no way to know how many were tossed in gulags after the war as opposed to during.  No way to know how many civilians died at Soviet hands.  We just can tell that more of the population is missing than the official casualty estimates account for.   The Soviets intentionally didn't publish any population records until the 1960s because of this.  Soviet archive records opened after the fall of the USSR only provide limited answers.

People seem to be hung on on the numbers.  I don't care about the exact numbers the known numbers are sufficiently large to say that Stalin was horrible and his subjects suffered under his rule.  He helped start WII on purpose and only fought against Germany after Germany turned on him.
I'm not hung on numbers, don't need to be, every death is a tragedy to someone but thought it was interesting as it is the most recent in depth calculation  :-\

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #226 on: March 10, 2015, 07:05:PM »
I won't try and argue with you, but on this point I feel that your response to my message is clearly erroneous.

My main point is that statistics can be skewed depending on the purpose of the author. If you disagree with this point, then that is more worrying.

Bare in mind Stalin had a much longer reign and ruled over a larger population most of the time.

civilians and POWs that died as a result of the laws and policies being enforced - Is that a fair definition?


Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #227 on: March 10, 2015, 07:16:PM »
Indeed, Russia is unconquerable

Not even close to true.

Russia had no reserves left the only men not under arms were people unfit for service.  They even began using women for military jobs.   Russia was having a problem finding enough people for industrial and agricultural jobs.  As soon as the war ended huge numbers of soldiers were released from service and sent to work because the economy was so bad.  Without lend lease help they were stuck doing everything on their own, lend-lease provide large amounts of food and fuel.  People always only look at military equipment that was provided and then say lend-lease wasn't significant. Ignored is that the bulk of lend-lease aid was tools, fuel, and raw materials.  This was was was needed most badly and was the most significant impact from lend-lease.  The aid stopped immediately at the end of the war.

The Russians were testing out wooden planes because but for the aluminum we supplied they would not have been able to build the planes they ended up building.

US and UK forces DID NOT outnumber German forces to the same ration that the Soviets outnumbered German forces.  Germany devoted most airpower against the West so let the Soviets control the skies.

In the various engagements even though they had full control of the skies and outnumbered the Germans in greater ratios than the west ever did, the Soviets incurred far more casualties than the West.  The West had  winning casualty rate.  That means the West inflicted more casualties than suffered.  The Soviets had a losing rate.  They suffered more casualties than they inflicted.

The West had a much larger air-force than the Soviets.  The aircraft was vastly superior to Soviet aircraft.  Britain and the US were developing jets during the War but the war ended before they were used in earnest.  The first Soviet Jet was developed later as the result of stolen technology.  The US had atomic weapons that could have been used on the USSR.  It was year slater again through stolen technology the Soviets developed the bomb.

Since Soviet forces suffered substantially more casualties against outnumbered Germans lacking air support then obviously they would suffer many more casualties against a Western force larger than the German force which would have been able to establish air superiority.  The ground attack aircraft the Soviet shad would have been easily shot down by Western forces and they provided a major amount of the damage against German forces.

Lendlease was responsible for 2/3 of the Soviet aviation gas supply.  That cut alone would severely curtail the flying abilities of the Soviets.  None of these things are ever considered.

If we fought the Soviets conventionally we would have suffered casualties to be sure but the Soviets would not have been able to prevail.  They would have suffered huge losses that they would not have been able to make up because there were no men left to try drawing from.

Stalin knew this, knew about the atomic bomb and would have capitulated to Western demands rather than risk war.  He knew the economic might and military might of the West and that he could not prevail.  That is why he refused to officially take part in North Korea.  Soviet planes that did take part had no markings.  He wasn't willing to fight the West.

Operation unthinkable was simply a contingency plan.  There are always military contingency plans.  it was just in case war did happen with the USSR. 
 
Hitler wasn't the idiot that people like to pretend.  He became crazy at the end and was a lousy commander in that he would not allow his military commanders to do what they wanted- which is good because that would have prolonged the war.  Germany could have defeated the USSR Hitler wasn't insane.  If it wasn't for Lend-lease the Soviets would have to have signed a peace deal with Germany ceding a large amount of territory.  But for out efforts there would have been a stalemate, the stalemate he expected the West to have with Germany and Stalin feared the West was going to steal his idea wait in the shadows and after both sides were exhausted to swoop in.

At the end of 1941 Hitler had good reason to think the War in the USSR was winding down and would soon be over with the USSR suing for peace and giving up large swaths of land.  Not only were millions of Soviet forces killed or captured, the main areas of Soviet industrial might had been taken. Ukraine accounted for most of the explosives production and a land taken also accounted for a large amount of food production.  Industry was in a shambles.  Hitler underestimated the ability of the US to supply the Soviets so they could continue fielding a viable force.  Finding more men to stick in uniform is one thing.
because so many former Soviet citizens were under German occupation they were forced to use men from the interior of the USSR as replacements. 

Feeding them, providing them with equipment and ammunition was a problem.  The US provided machine tools and other equipment to outfit factories beyond the reach of German forces.  There was little industry in the region at the time of the German invasion were provided a lot of materials they used to rebuild industrially.  The  manpower to produce aluminum, steel and other metals needed for production of tanks, planes and guns would reduce the pool of men available for military service and working in factories to produce such items.  The finished weapons provided were a stopgap to be used as the Allies helped the USSR to build factories. So we helped them to build factories and provided them with raw materials for those factories to use.  We provided them with railroad equipment and most of the trucks they used so that they could transport materials to the forces in the field.  We also accounted for 2/3 of their aviation gas and the materials used by them for ammunition.  Hitler expect them to run out of ammo and have to surrender because he knocked out most of their ammunition production.  He had no idea we would be both willing and able to more than make up for the loss. 

Anyone who knows about military matters will tell you logistics are the key and that is what no one looks at.

But for the West the USSR would have capitulated and basically would have been an Asian power.  To be sure Stalin would have spent years rebuilding to one day renew the war to try to take the lands back but it is doubtful Germany would have been able to be dislodged at that point. 

The West saw such a huge Germany as a major threat so didn't let that happen and supplied the Soviets and simultaneously built up their own forces to help defeat Hitler.

On the History channel Website we had a huge debate over Unthinkable where all the forces of each side were listed and took into account atomic power and took into account the Soviet economy less lend-lease and it was quite clear that the Soviets could not go toe to toe with the West if there had been a war.  Stalin never would have gone to war though the West could have gotten a much better peace deal without needing to go to war.




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Offline Jane

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #228 on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:PM »
I won't try and argue with you, but on this point I feel that your response to my message is clearly erroneous.

My main point is that statistics can be skewed depending on the purpose of the author. If you disagree with this point, then that is more worrying.



Of course they can. Authors, on behalf of the victors will probably wish to "blur" any atrocities done in their name. Authors for the vanquished will probably wish to expose/magnify them..................not that I'm undermining ANY atrocity. We Brits, down the years, have certainly shown ourselves as being rather less than squeaky clean.

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #229 on: March 10, 2015, 07:44:PM »
That's incorrect. The Russian Military archives say 8.4 million soviet servicemen but western historians have speculated it could possibly be as high as 14 million. Considering the USSR always used to whitewash any records that made it look bad

Soviet archives opened up after the fall of the USSR provide losses only in the 1942-45 period.  The losses during 1941 are just guesses and typically undercounted guesses though we can't be sure.  the ones usually whitewashed.  There clearly were on the order of over 10 million (20 was a typo) irrevocable losses. It always depends on whether you want to count just those wars against Germany or the all endeavors including  the Soviet invasion of Finland.   

Mind you civilians did fight against Germany and against Soviets even so...  plus men from Poland and Eastern Europe fought alongside Soviets.  Even some Italians fought in the USSR though not in huge numbers.  So you have to be careful if trying to make a very specific point about casualties.

The USSR annexed property with 25 plus million inhabitants after the war.  The prewar population in 1939 was 165-167 million (it was inflated to 171 million by scared census takers) in 1959 it was 208.8 million.  That is only growth of 41.8 million over 20 years.  At least 25 million of that was added by annexing lands with people on it so in fact it was only growth of at best 17 million over 20 years.  114.8 million were female and only 94 million male.  20 million more females is pretty substantial.  If the census were taken right at the end of the war it would have been even more lopsided.  The Germans were just as brutal against women as men.  Civilian men were killed more than women but not in such lopsided numbers.  Most of the difference in the gap between male and female would have to be attributable to military service, partisan service and actions of Stalin.



 


 

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Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #230 on: March 10, 2015, 07:47:PM »
Not even close to true.

Russia had no reserves left the only men not under arms were people unfit for service.  They even began using women for military jobs.   Russia was having a problem finding enough people for industrial and agricultural jobs.  As soon as the war ended huge numbers of soldiers were released from service and sent to work because the economy was so bad.  Without lend lease help they were stuck doing everything on their own, lend-lease provide large amounts of food and fuel.  People always only look at military equipment that was provided and then say lend-lease wasn't significant. Ignored is that the bulk of lend-lease aid was tools, fuel, and raw materials.  This was was was needed most badly and was the most significant impact from lend-lease.  The aid stopped immediately at the end of the war.

The Russians were testing out wooden planes because but for the aluminum we supplied they would not have been able to build the planes they ended up building.

US and UK forces DID NOT outnumber German forces to the same ration that the Soviets outnumbered German forces.  Germany devoted most airpower against the West so let the Soviets control the skies.

In the various engagements even though they had full control of the skies and outnumbered the Germans in greater ratios than the west ever did, the Soviets incurred far more casualties than the West.  The West had  winning casualty rate.  That means the West inflicted more casualties than suffered.  The Soviets had a losing rate.  They suffered more casualties than they inflicted.

The West had a much larger air-force than the Soviets.  The aircraft was vastly superior to Soviet aircraft.  Britain and the US were developing jets during the War but the war ended before they were used in earnest.  The first Soviet Jet was developed later as the result of stolen technology.  The US had atomic weapons that could have been used on the USSR.  It was year slater again through stolen technology the Soviets developed the bomb.

Since Soviet forces suffered substantially more casualties against outnumbered Germans lacking air support then obviously they would suffer many more casualties against a Western force larger than the German force which would have been able to establish air superiority.  The ground attack aircraft the Soviet shad would have been easily shot down by Western forces and they provided a major amount of the damage against German forces.

Lendlease was responsible for 2/3 of the Soviet aviation gas supply.  That cut alone would severely curtail the flying abilities of the Soviets.  None of these things are ever considered.

If we fought the Soviets conventionally we would have suffered casualties to be sure but the Soviets would not have been able to prevail.  They would have suffered huge losses that they would not have been able to make up because there were no men left to try drawing from.

Stalin knew this, knew about the atomic bomb and would have capitulated to Western demands rather than risk war.  He knew the economic might and military might of the West and that he could not prevail.  That is why he refused to officially take part in North Korea.  Soviet planes that did take part had no markings.  He wasn't willing to fight the West.

Operation unthinkable was simply a contingency plan.  There are always military contingency plans.  it was just in case war did happen with the USSR. 
 
Hitler wasn't the idiot that people like to pretend.  He became crazy at the end and was a lousy commander in that he would not allow his military commanders to do what they wanted- which is good because that would have prolonged the war.  Germany could have defeated the USSR Hitler wasn't insane.  If it wasn't for Lend-lease the Soviets would have to have signed a peace deal with Germany ceding a large amount of territory.  But for out efforts there would have been a stalemate, the stalemate he expected the West to have with Germany and Stalin feared the West was going to steal his idea wait in the shadows and after both sides were exhausted to swoop in.

At the end of 1941 Hitler had good reason to think the War in the USSR was winding down and would soon be over with the USSR suing for peace and giving up large swaths of land.  Not only were millions of Soviet forces killed or captured, the main areas of Soviet industrial might had been taken. Ukraine accounted for most of the explosives production and a land taken also accounted for a large amount of food production.  Industry was in a shambles.  Hitler underestimated the ability of the US to supply the Soviets so they could continue fielding a viable force.  Finding more men to stick in uniform is one thing.
because so many former Soviet citizens were under German occupation they were forced to use men from the interior of the USSR as replacements. 

Feeding them, providing them with equipment and ammunition was a problem.  The US provided machine tools and other equipment to outfit factories beyond the reach of German forces.  There was little industry in the region at the time of the German invasion were provided a lot of materials they used to rebuild industrially.  The  manpower to produce aluminum, steel and other metals needed for production of tanks, planes and guns would reduce the pool of men available for military service and working in factories to produce such items.  The finished weapons provided were a stopgap to be used as the Allies helped the USSR to build factories. So we helped them to build factories and provided them with raw materials for those factories to use.  We provided them with railroad equipment and most of the trucks they used so that they could transport materials to the forces in the field.  We also accounted for 2/3 of their aviation gas and the materials used by them for ammunition.  Hitler expect them to run out of ammo and have to surrender because he knocked out most of their ammunition production.  He had no idea we would be both willing and able to more than make up for the loss. 

Anyone who knows about military matters will tell you logistics are the key and that is what no one looks at.

But for the West the USSR would have capitulated and basically would have been an Asian power.  To be sure Stalin would have spent years rebuilding to one day renew the war to try to take the lands back but it is doubtful Germany would have been able to be dislodged at that point. 

The West saw such a huge Germany as a major threat so didn't let that happen and supplied the Soviets and simultaneously built up their own forces to help defeat Hitler.

On the History channel Website we had a huge debate over Unthinkable where all the forces of each side were listed and took into account atomic power and took into account the Soviet economy less lend-lease and it was quite clear that the Soviets could not go toe to toe with the West if there had been a war.  Stalin never would have gone to war though the West could have gotten a much better peace deal without needing to go to war.

What your saying about the Red army strength after defeating Germany is total garbage. Operation Unthinkable was declared 'unfeasible' by the British high command due to the soviet numerical troop advantage of 4:1 and a tank advantage of 2:1 not to mention the colossal war industry the soviets had created out of range of any American/British bombers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 08:05:PM by david1819 »

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #231 on: March 10, 2015, 09:42:PM »
What your saying about the Red army strength after defeating Germany is total garbage. Operation Unthinkable was declared 'unfeasible' by the British high command due to the soviet numerical troop advantage of 4:1 and a tank advantage of 2:1 not to mention the colossal war industry the soviets had created out of range of any American/British bombers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable

The Soviet industry that you claim was colossal was a substantially lower output than before the war let and significantly lower than US output. Atomic weapons used over any area of the USSR presented  a substantial threat.

The Soviet's outnumbered Germany tankwise 10:1 and had air supremacy on top of numerical advantage in Infantry and artillery and still suffered huge casualties.  Thanks to lend-lease aid the USSR produced 137,273 planes from 1941-1945 with 125,000 built before VE Day while the USA produced over 300,000.  This obviously doesn't even take into account UK production. US production was severely curtailed as the war ended or the figure would have been even higher.

The US Army Aircorps (forerunner of the Air Force) fielded 75,000 planes at peak strength (including a large number of heavy bombers) and the US Navy fielded another 22-25,000.  The US Navy alone had more airpower than the airforces of just about every nation. So the US alone had over 100,000 aircraft to deploy.  This doesn't count the Commonwealth squadrons available. How many German aircraft were they accustomed to facing? About 2500 most of which didn't have enough fuel to operate much from mid 1944 on.  Their aircraft losses were tremendous despite outnumbering the Germans in the air heavily.

The West would have established aircraft Supremacy and the 2:1 advantage in tanks would have been worthless.  Western Tank doctrine was much more effective anyway which is why losses were much less than those suffered by the Soviets.

The Germans were jealous of American Artillery which they considered the best.  The US had a much better artillery force than the Soviets.

The Allies supplied another 15,000 planes to the Soviets most them superior to Soviet models which is why at any given time 18-25% of combat planes on the front lines were of Western origin. Throughout 1942 and 1943 Stalin kept begging for more Western fighters because Soviet domestic supply (despite lend-lease) was unable to meet the need given the casualties incurred.  In 1944 Despite the Allied bombing campaign the Germans exceed the Soviets by producing 40,593 aircraft compared to 40,300 that the Soviets produced.  Because of the bombing campaign  they had to have smaller, more dispersed facilities.

US production of steel dwarfed that of the USSR.  SO did production of just about everything.

Soviet strength is 1945 at the end of the war was around 15,000 tanks, 25,000 aircraft and 9 million men in the ground forces.

End of April 1945
Total US Army 8.3 million
Army Ground Forces 6 million, 10,000 tanks
Army Air Force 2.3 million, 75,000 plus planes

Naval figures:
Marine Corps 485,000 10,000 plus planes, 500 tanks
US Navy 3.4 million 1000 combat vessels, 28,000 planes
Merchant Marine 215,000- 6000 vessels

Note that these do not include French forces or Commonwealth Forces. Which had over 10,000 planes.

It is a myth that the Soviets could have defeated the West if they went head to head at the end of WWII.  Neither side was willing to engage in the costs associated with such a war.  The Soviets though would not have risked war over Poland or other issues the Western Allies could have been much more loyal.

   
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Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #232 on: March 10, 2015, 09:57:PM »
The Soviet industry that you claim was colossal was a substantially lower output than before the war let and significantly lower than US output. Atomic weapons used over any area of the USSR presented  a substantial threat.

The Soviet's outnumbered Germany tankwise 10:1 and had air supremacy on top of numerical advantage in Infantry and artillery and still suffered huge casualties.  Thanks to lend-lease aid the USSR produced 137,273 planes from 1941-1945 with 125,000 built before VE Day while the USA produced over 300,000.  This obviously doesn't even take into account UK production. US production was severely curtailed as the war ended or the figure would have been even higher.

The US Army Aircorps (forerunner of the Air Force) fielded 75,000 planes at peak strength (including a large number of heavy bombers) and the US Navy fielded another 22-25,000.  The US Navy alone had more airpower than the airforces of just about every nation. So the US alone had over 100,000 aircraft to deploy.  This doesn't count the Commonwealth squadrons available. How many German aircraft were they accustomed to facing? About 2500 most of which didn't have enough fuel to operate much from mid 1944 on.  Their aircraft losses were tremendous despite outnumbering the Germans in the air heavily.

The West would have established aircraft Supremacy and the 2:1 advantage in tanks would have been worthless.  Western Tank doctrine was much more effective anyway which is why losses were much less than those suffered by the Soviets.

The Germans were jealous of American Artillery which they considered the best.  The US had a much better artillery force than the Soviets.

The Allies supplied another 15,000 planes to the Soviets most them superior to Soviet models which is why at any given time 18-25% of combat planes on the front lines were of Western origin. Throughout 1942 and 1943 Stalin kept begging for more Western fighters because Soviet domestic supply (despite lend-lease) was unable to meet the need given the casualties incurred.  In 1944 Despite the Allied bombing campaign the Germans exceed the Soviets by producing 40,593 aircraft compared to 40,300 that the Soviets produced.  Because of the bombing campaign  they had to have smaller, more dispersed facilities.

US production of steel dwarfed that of the USSR.  SO did production of just about everything.

Soviet strength is 1945 at the end of the war was around 15,000 tanks, 25,000 aircraft and 9 million men in the ground forces.

End of April 1945
Total US Army 8.3 million
Army Ground Forces 6 million, 10,000 tanks
Army Air Force 2.3 million, 75,000 plus planes

Naval figures:
Marine Corps 485,000 10,000 plus planes, 500 tanks
US Navy 3.4 million 1000 combat vessels, 28,000 planes
Merchant Marine 215,000- 6000 vessels

Note that these do not include French forces or Commonwealth Forces. Which had over 10,000 planes.

It is a myth that the Soviets could have defeated the West if they went head to head at the end of WWII.  Neither side was willing to engage in the costs associated with such a war.  The Soviets though would not have risked war over Poland or other issues the Western Allies could have been much more loyal.

 

Your making the same error of judgment that Hitler and Napoleon made that is underestimating Russia. The sheer size and the formidable winter make it more or less impossible.  The hole idea of turning on the USSR after the war is rather stupid, The fact Stalin died in 1953 is good enough for me

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #233 on: March 10, 2015, 10:24:PM »
Your making the same error of judgment that Hitler and Napoleon made that is underestimating Russia. The sheer size and the formidable winter make it more or less impossible.  The hole idea of turning on the USSR after the war is rather stupid, The fact Stalin died in 1953 is good enough for me

You are ignoring that if Germany had fought the USSR alone the Soviets would have lost, ignoring US Industrial might which accounted for over 60 percent of the entire World's industrial production during WWII, that Western losses were much more mild than Soviet losses so the West had a larger reserve population, the significant of the atomic bomb, superiority of Western tactics and equipment and the great numerical advantage of Western airpower.

You are also ignoring that Stalin would not have gone to war with the west simply to occupy Eastern Europe if push came to shove. Resolve would have carried the day war wasn't necessary.  In a war though the Soviets would have lost that is why they were always worried during the Cold War numbers don't ensure victory.  In 1991 the 4th largest military in the World armed with Soviet equipment and using Soviet tactics got routed.  The forces tried to fought but were simply outclassed on every level.  They lost thousands of tanks while inflicting miniscule casualties on the UN forces.  This sent shockwaves through the Russian military. No one expected the Iraqis to be able to prevail but the World didn't expect less than 3 days of fighting to result in such severe losses.

In 2003 some fought but most forces ended up running away after coming under attack.  Those that fought had no better success than they did in 1991. 

The Red Army would have inflicted losses on the West, it would not have been as lopsided as in Iraq but no where near what the West would have inflicted on the Red Army.  Stalin had no delusions about such nor did the military leaders who even admitted that without Lend-lease they could not have prevailed. Stalin wasn't stupid, he knew the propaganda he was putting out was false.  He was cold and calculating.   

Poland didn't become free in 1953 the Iron Curtain didn't begin to crack until 1989.

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Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #234 on: March 10, 2015, 10:40:PM »
Since the topic is what a great Ally he was something that may or may not be of interest is that  he refused to allow US bombers to be based in the Far East to fly against Japan and refused to assist against Japan in any way until the end of the war when it was decided to help in order to pilfer what they could from Manchuria, seize islands and to seize to North Korea.

Politeness is organized indifference- Paul Valéry

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #235 on: March 11, 2015, 12:28:AM »
You are ignoring that if Germany had fought the USSR alone the Soviets would have lost, ignoring US Industrial might which accounted for over 60 percent of the entire World's industrial production during WWII, that Western losses were much more mild than Soviet losses so the West had a larger reserve population, the significant of the atomic bomb, superiority of Western tactics and equipment and the great numerical advantage of Western airpower.

You are also ignoring that Stalin would not have gone to war with the west simply to occupy Eastern Europe if push came to shove. Resolve would have carried the day war wasn't necessary.  In a war though the Soviets would have lost that is why they were always worried during the Cold War numbers don't ensure victory.  In 1991 the 4th largest military in the World armed with Soviet equipment and using Soviet tactics got routed.  The forces tried to fought but were simply outclassed on every level.  They lost thousands of tanks while inflicting miniscule casualties on the UN forces.  This sent shockwaves through the Russian military. No one expected the Iraqis to be able to prevail but the World didn't expect less than 3 days of fighting to result in such severe losses.

In 2003 some fought but most forces ended up running away after coming under attack.  Those that fought had no better success than they did in 1991. 

The Red Army would have inflicted losses on the West, it would not have been as lopsided as in Iraq but no where near what the West would have inflicted on the Red Army.  Stalin had no delusions about such nor did the military leaders who even admitted that without Lend-lease they could not have prevailed. Stalin wasn't stupid, he knew the propaganda he was putting out was false.  He was cold and calculating.   

Poland didn't become free in 1953 the Iron Curtain didn't begin to crack until 1989.

That's simply not true. The Germans only had one shot at defeating the USSR and failed, By January 1942 Germany had no chance of winning after being bushed back, Germany could only afford a short summer Blitzkreig campaign.

apart from numbers and statistics you must consider these factors

1. The German army behaved utterly barbaric towards the Russians that considered them liberators at first, this created vast soviet partisan groups deep behind German lines that would sabotage train tracks and blow up supply trains plus ensure the soviet people did not collaborate with the occupying force.

2. Hitler promoted himself to supreme commander a position he was not competent for plus he was becoming dependent on drugs that would effect his decisions

3. He sacked very good and able members of the Wehrmacht like Guderian and Von Manstein who where behind the early victories.






Offline Caroline

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #236 on: March 11, 2015, 12:33:AM »
Well, all this had kind of gotton out of hand! Still think Putin is an arse though :)
Few people have the imagination for reality

Offline maggie

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #237 on: March 11, 2015, 12:59:AM »
Well, all this had kind of gotton out of hand! Still think Putin is an arse though :)
So do I.

Offline Caroline

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #238 on: March 11, 2015, 01:54:AM »
Few people have the imagination for reality

Offline scipio_usmc

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #239 on: March 11, 2015, 03:58:AM »
That's simply not true. The Germans only had one shot at defeating the USSR and failed, By January 1942 Germany had no chance of winning after being bushed back, Germany could only afford a short summer Blitzkreig campaign.

apart from numbers and statistics you must consider these factors

1. The German army behaved utterly barbaric towards the Russians that considered them liberators at first, this created vast soviet partisan groups deep behind German lines that would sabotage train tracks and blow up supply trains plus ensure the soviet people did not collaborate with the occupying force.

2. Hitler promoted himself to supreme commander a position he was not competent for plus he was becoming dependent on drugs that would effect his decisions

3. He sacked very good and able members of the Wehrmacht like Guderian and Von Manstein who where behind the early victories.

As the saying goes amateurs study tactics while professionals study logistics.

In the spring of 1942 the Germans mauled the Soviets and only after lend-lease started to kick in did the tables begin to turn.  Explain how the Soviets would have done on their own without any aid when they lost all their chemical works in Ukraine. They had to conserve artillery shells until they were supplied by the West with finished shells, casings and powder.  Their powder works in Ukraine that accounted for the bulk of their production was gone.

Three quarters of all iron ore and manganese was in Ukraine.  Coal production fell dramatically as well.  They even lost a sizable amount of its arable land and crops.  But perhaps most significantly



These were the Soviet losses throughout the war are you trying to tell me the majority of these losses were in 1941?  They lost their ass in 1941 but they still lost a lot in subsequent years as well.

Losses throughout the war:
Tanks 83,500
SP guns 13,000
AC- 37,500
Trucks 351,800
Aircraft about 125,000

Through Lend lease the Soviets were provided with:

22 million artillery shells/bombs, nearly 1 billion shell casings, 317,000 tons of explosive materials and 103,000 tons of toluene.  The Soviets manufactured 116,000 tons of toluene during the war and 600,000 tons of explosive materials in part using materials obtained through Lend-Lease.  So but for Lend Lease they would have had less than half the ammunition supply they had.  Lend-lease accounted for a great percentage of their ammunition supply during the darkest hours their production picked up after they started getting territory back. 


Lend lease sent the equipment to build and outfit numerous refineries Theses refineries accounted for 5% of crude production and 20% of cracking ability.  20% might not sound like that much but it is significant.  Technical assistance was rendered with their own existing refineries as well there is no way to measure what the result was but it had to be something.     

According to Feeding the Bear, Lend-lease provided production equipment and fuel additives that raised the capacity of Soviet aviation fuel output from 110,00 metric tons in 1941 to 1.67 million metric tons in 1944. There is no way the Soviets ever would have remotely approached this capacity without the US assistance. In the meantime this production was less than half of their total supply, Lend Lease delivered 59% of aviation fuel outright. 3/4 of their aviation fuel used during the war was attributable to Lend-Lease. Obviously since their production didn't ramp up until late in the war the overwhelming majority of what they used in 1942 and 1943 was from Lend-lease.

Of course they would not have needed as much aviation fuel without lend lease because they would not have had as many aircraft or bombs.  Some of the most vital components of Soviet aircraft were supplied through Lend-Lease such as 45% of copper and 55% of Aluminum came from Lend-Lease.  Copper is used in wiring in aircraft among other things and aluminum is used for both the plane itself and also the engine (tank engines too).  Certainly losing over half of such vital raw materials would seriously curtail production.  This doesn’t even take into account the tools for construction of aircraft that the US provided (the US provided 30% of Soviet machine tools and they were more advanced than Soviet tooling) and other raw materials provided.  Aircraft provided via Lend-lease accounted for a significant percentage of the aircraft used on the front lines.  They never would have achieved air Supremacy without both Lend-Lease and the Allied Air campaign causing Germany to keep the bulk of the Luftwaffee protecting the homeland. The Germany military with strong air support facing the less well supplied Soviet military would have meant no ability of the Soviet forces to advance.  Lendlease even accounted for a great deal of the USSR's railroad equipment and trucks (over 350,000 trucks provided).  This doesn't even take into account all the food that was provided- canned food so would feed troops in the field.

The great advances the Soviets made were enabled by Lend-lease and the Allied effort siphoning off the bulk of Germany's airpower and 40% of their ground forces.  A sizable amount of German production went to the Kreigsmarine, V2 rockets to use on the UK and anti-aircraft artillery to defend from the bombing campaign.  The largest amount of their ammunition production went to...AAA shells.  The Germans would have been able to devote more production to use against rhe USSR but for the air campaign and would have produced far more than they did historically and despite the air campaign they still produced more aircraft than the USSR which was getting tons of help through lend-lease.

I always love the crap about how the war was won in 1942 before lend-lease kicked in.  That is why it took till 1945 for the war to end...

The Allies combined outnumbered Germany in every category from population to soldiers to production by huge margins.  It still took nearly a year after Overlord for Germany to fall.  Germany was bombed to hell, lost their oil supplies so had little fuel and sill took a long time to be defeated. The Soviets would have been stuck in a stalemate with Germany outside of Moscow and would have eventually sued for peace.

The only reason that didn't happen is because if the Allies allowed Germany to consolidate its gains then it would have been an even bigger threat and taken even greater effort to deal with.  The Allies thus chose to help the USSR with Lend-lease aid so they could defeat Germany together so the effort was less than would have otherwise been required if going it alone.

The Western Allies could have defeated Germany without Soviet help but it would have required a larger effort and taken longer thus the bomb would have been used on Germany.  Germany was spared mainly because by the time the bomb was ready for use the war was won. 

VonManstein was arguably the best German General of the war but not a miracle worker.  Logistics win wars, tacticians only help speed up victory or slow defeat. 
Politeness is organized indifference- Paul Valéry