Author Topic: The case of Madeleine McCann  (Read 585650 times)

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guest29835

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5835 on: April 23, 2022, 01:29:PM »
Are we now expected to believe, that both a blood dog and a cadavar dog just happened to separately alert in an apartment, where an infant had gone missing from.. and that these alerts were both false?

A cadavar dog will only alert for cadavar scent. A blood dog will only alert for blood scent.

Regarding the mathematical calculation of probability, what is the chance that two separate types of sniffer dogs would both alert, in an apartment where a child had gone missing from; and that those alerts were not linked to the missing child? I mean it's not impossible - but what odds would I get at Ladbrokes?

Regarding CB, he may have had involvement - or he may be being set up to take the rap, with the plan being that once and for all, the McCann's will be cleared of any taint regarding speculated involvement themselves.

Blood dog - she was staying in the apartment with her parents and siblings for a holiday, so simply detecting her blood, or any human blood, in the apartment establishes nothing of importance, assuming we can even rely on such a dog.  Had the police found blood patterns that indicated an assault, that would be different, but no such thing occurred.  As far as I am aware, none of her blood has even been seen or detected using forensic methods.

Cadaver dog - is the dog detecting a specific cadaver or cadavers in general?  If cadavers in general, then who is to say that nobody other than Madeleine McCann has died in that apartment or that articles and effects in the apartment have not come into contact with dead bodies other than Madeleine McCann?  Again, proves nothing.  If the cadaver dogs are somehow trained to detect the dynamic envelope of specific bodies, this also establishes nothing in legal terms.  As I think I have mentioned before, it's doubtful such evidence would be admissible in a criminal trial, in Portugal or England, because you can't cross-examine a dog.  A dog is an instinctual, highly trainable animal but not an automaton exactly, so the results will be inherently unreliable. 

What these dogs are doing is providing a guide to investigators.  Their main role is in searches rather than investigations per se.  It's similar to the role of drug dogs.  Nobody can be convicted of a drugs offence just because a dog starts barking at them.  The dog is pointing at something, but the evidence still has to be found, so what happens is that the officer then has to search the person or property, or both, under the auspice of (in England & Wales) 'reasonable suspicion', which is section 1 of PACE.  It's the dog's reaction that forms the basis of the reasonable suspicion - specifically, it is the fact that a trained dog has started barking when about your presence, which raises a reasonable basis for believing you may have drugs on your person.  However, if no drugs are found on your person, then that is the end of it.  I reiterate that you can't be taken to court just because you or your car, property or effects have been barked at by a dog.  I am not conversant with the criminal laws of Portugal, which in some respects are fundamentally different to ours, but the standard of proof is likely to be similar, so these observations will hold in Portugal too.

The drug dog analogy can be applied to the McCanns.  The reaction of dogs is an indication that evidence might be found in the apartment or in a car or whatever.  It raises suspicion and I expect this was one of the reasons they became Persons of Interest under judicial protection (arguidos).  But it is not hard evidence in itself.  You can't convict the McCanns of murder just because some dogs started barking.  You'd have to be barking to think like that.

We're still left in the position that there is no solid evidence to support the contention that abduction was 'materially impossible'.  Barking dogs makes no difference and I have not seen anything else that would assail the abduction theory.  That doesn't mean the McCanns are innocent, but in my view it does mean that we have no right to start casting aspersions on them.  They may be completely innocent and they remain innocent in law.  That being the case, why do people still keep acting like they're certain the McCanns are guilty of something?  What evidence do you have exactly?  I always ask this question and I never receive a convincing answer.

Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5836 on: April 23, 2022, 01:39:PM »
Blood dog - she was staying in the apartment with her parents and siblings for a holiday, so simply detecting her blood, or any human blood, in the apartment establishes nothing of importance, assuming we can even rely on such a dog.  Had the police found blood patterns that indicated an assault, that would be different, but no such thing occurred.  As far as I am aware, none of her blood has even been seen or detected using forensic methods.

Cadaver dog - is the dog detecting a specific cadaver or cadavers in general?  If cadavers in general, then, who is to say that nobody has died in that apartment or that articles and effects in the apartment have not come into contact with dead bodies?  Again, proves nothing.  If the cadaver dogs are somehow trained to detect the dynamic envelope of specific bodies, this also establishes nothing in legal terms.  As I think I have mentioned before, it's doubtful such evidence would be admissible in a criminal trial, in Portugal or England, because you can't cross-examine a dog.  A dog is an instinctual, highly trainable animal but not an automaton exactly, so the results will be inherently unreliable. 

What these dogs are doing is providing a guide to investigators.  Their main role is in searches rather than investigations per se.  It's similar to the role of drug dogs.  Nobody can be convicted of a drugs offence just because a dog starts barking at them.  The dog is pointing at something, but the evidence still has to be found, so what happens is that the officer then has to search the person or property, or both, under the auspice of (in England & Wales) 'reasonable suspicion', which is section 1 of PACE.  It's the dog's reaction that forms the basis of the reasonable suspicion - specifically, it is the fact that a trained dog has started barking when about your presence, which raises a reasonable basis for believing you may have drugs on your person.  However, if no drugs are found on your person, then that is the end of it.  I reiterate that you can't be taken to court just because you or your car, property or effects have been barked at by a dog.  I am not conversant with the criminal laws of Portugal, which in some respects are fundamentally different to ours, but the standard of proof is likely to be similar, so these observations will hold in Portugal too.

The drug dog analogy can be applied to the McCanns.  The reaction of dogs is an indication that evidence might be found in the apartment or in a car or whatever.  It raises suspicion and I expect this was one of the reasons they became Persons of Interest under judicial protection (arguidos).  But it is not hard evidence in itself.  You can't convict the McCanns of murder just because some dogs started barking.  You'd have to be barking to think like that.

We're still left in the position that there is no solid evidence to support the contention that abduction was 'materially impossible'.  Barking dogs makes no difference and I have not seen anything else that would assail the abduction theory.  That doesn't mean the McCanns are innocent, but in my view, it does mean that we have no right to start casting aspersions on them.  They may be completely innocent and they remain innocent in law.  That being the case, why do people still keep acting like they're certain the McCanns are guilty of something?  What evidence do you have exactly?  I always ask this question and I never receive a convincing answer.

Maybe you're asking the wrong question. A taint of suspicion which is supported by two former senior officers is not proof of guilt. Nevertheless, it is not insignificant. My question of probability still stands. What are the odds that both alerts are unconnected to Maddie? If we want to really ramp up the probability, what chance that in addition, a 3rd alert to the boot of the hire car and door well, are also unconnected?

If I was a bookmaker, what odds would I offer?
« Last Edit: April 23, 2022, 01:43:PM by Roch »

guest29835

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5837 on: April 23, 2022, 01:52:PM »
Maybe you're asking the wrong question. A taint of suspicion which is supported by two former senior officers is not proof of guilt. Nevertheless, it is not insignificant. My question of probability still stands. What are the odds that both alerts are unconnected to Maddie? If we want to really ramp up the probability, what chance that in addition, a 3rd alert to the boot of the hire car and door well, are also unconnected?

If I was a bookmaker, what odds would I offer?

I'm not asking the wrong question, I'm asking the right question: What evidence do you have that tells me abduction is 'materially impossible'?  If I were an examining magistrate or grand juror, or even a prosecutor, being asked to consider whether a case against the McCanns should proceed and they should be indicted on serious criminal charges, the very first thing I would say to the Portuguese judicial police is:

You say abduction is 'materially impossible'.  Please provide a summary bullet point list of the evidence that tells me this.  I don't need detail at this stage.  Just bullet points that tell me there is a case to answer.

If you think the McCanns are guilty, then give me the points.  If you can't give me the points, if it's just a 'feeling' you've got, or some big-brained conspiracy theory that has no structural support in facts and evidence, then I can dismiss everything you say on this topic as immature and irrational.  That's not to say I am approaching this with any feeling or being antagonistic or confrontational.  I have no stake in this.  But I'm not going to go round declaring people guilty just because I've got that 'feeling' about them or I have some sort of anti-Establishment agenda.  These are real people, let me remind you.

As for bookmakers, I've no idea what you're talking about.  I've just told you the factors that undermine the reliability of dogs and also why they have no place in executive decisions about criminal investigations.  These points go to probability.  You can't assess probabilities abstractly in the way you seem to think.  That's very naive of you.  Bookmakers and professional gamblers don't work like that.  They do their research and bring insight into it: for instance, they learn about equestrianism and the rudiments of everything from hippology to turf management and racecourse maintenance.  Same applies in whatever sport they are betting on at a serious level. 

This, too, is at a serious level.  Let's be serious.

Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5838 on: April 23, 2022, 02:37:PM »
I'm not asking the wrong question, I'm asking the right question: What evidence do you have that tells me abduction is 'materially impossible'?  If I were an examining magistrate or grand juror, or even a prosecutor, being asked to consider whether a case against the McCanns should proceed and they should be indicted on serious criminal charges, the very first thing I would say to the Portuguese judicial police is:

You say abduction is 'materially impossible'.  Please provide a summary bullet point list of the evidence that tells me this.  I don't need detail at this stage.  Just bullet points that tell me there is a case to answer.

If you think the McCanns are guilty, then give me the points.  If you can't give me the points, if it's just a 'feeling' you've got, or some big-brained conspiracy theory that has no structural support in facts and evidence, then I can dismiss everything you say on this topic as immature and irrational.  That's not to say I am approaching this with any feeling or being antagonistic or confrontational.  I have no stake in this.  But I'm not going to go round declaring people guilty just because I've got that 'feeling' about them or I have some sort of anti-Establishment agenda.  These are real people, let me remind you.

As for bookmakers, I've no idea what you're talking about.  I've just told you the factors that undermine the reliability of dogs and also why they have no place in executive decisions about criminal investigations.  These points go to probability.  You can't assess probabilities abstractly in the way you seem to think.  That's very naive of you.  Bookmakers and professional gamblers don't work like that.  They do their research and bring insight into it: for instance, they learn about equestrianism and the rudiments of everything from hippology to turf management and racecourse maintenance.  Same applies in whatever sport they are betting on at a serious level. 

This, too, is at a serious level.  Let's be serious.

You've lost me here  ::). I will reply when I have time.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2022, 02:38:PM by Roch »

Offline Bubo bubo

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5839 on: April 23, 2022, 05:23:PM »
I just thought I would give my views on this case. For what it is worth I spent many months in the early naughties traveling aroung Portugal in our motor home. My brothers have properties further up the coast but we spent a lot of time on the Algarve.

When the case first hit the headlines I speculated that it might have been a 'weirdo' who was committing a burglary which went horribly wrong. I know not to judge a book by its cover but campsites in this area contained many Strange/suspicious  and unsavoury looking characters on these local campsites.

I speculated that he had accidentally killed her because (a) he could have clamped his hand over her face to stifle screams or cries and suffocated her. or (b) he broke her neck as she struggled to escape his grasp when she found him rummaging in the apartment. She was a fragile young thing from her photos.

Of course you may say I am making this theory up to fit the current news. I do not nor would I sink that low.

But the current suspect as has been said circumstantially looks like a good fit to me but that does not make him guilty. Given my previous thoughts this news seems to confirm my thinking.

 

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5840 on: April 23, 2022, 08:14:PM »
I just thought I would give my views on this case. For what it is worth I spent many months in the early naughties traveling aroung Portugal in our motor home. My brothers have properties further up the coast but we spent a lot of time on the Algarve.

When the case first hit the headlines I speculated that it might have been a 'weirdo' who was committing a burglary which went horribly wrong. I know not to judge a book by its cover but campsites in this area contained many Strange/suspicious  and unsavoury looking characters on these local campsites.

I speculated that he had accidentally killed her because (a) he could have clamped his hand over her face to stifle screams or cries and suffocated her. or (b) he broke her neck as she struggled to escape his grasp when she found him rummaging in the apartment. She was a fragile young thing from her photos.

Of course you may say I am making this theory up to fit the current news. I do not nor would I sink that low.

But the current suspect as has been said circumstantially looks like a good fit to me but that does not make him guilty. Given my previous thoughts this news seems to confirm my thinking.

 
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626

Offline Bubo bubo

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5841 on: April 23, 2022, 08:28:PM »
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626

DNA?

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5842 on: April 25, 2022, 12:50:AM »
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there 'He' couldn't have left 'Madeliene McCanns' body 'there' on the 3rd May 2007, because 'she was (had been)' already collected' or 'taken' from the 'McCann' apartment, 'two days', or 'so' earlier, whilst 'her parents' were 'conveniently enjoying an extended break from parenthood' at 'Kelly's bar'  which was / is only 'a stones throw away from the village church' (where almost three days later, 'the parents were given unrestricted access' to 'it' and 'the derelict building', situated 'directly across the road', on the pretense that they were seeking to avoid media attention! . https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626
« Last Edit: April 25, 2022, 01:04:AM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5843 on: April 25, 2022, 01:11:AM »
'Madeliene McCann' was already 'absent' from 'enjoying the natural company of her family' [ after around midnight] on the evening of the 1st May 2007 and being (physically) present inside the families apartment [`5A'] in/at the resort, whilst her parents were conveniently far away from their apartment enjoying themselves, whilst their three young children were all left 'home alone' with an unlocked patio door through which any interested person(s), or party, had got unrestricted access to apartment '5A', and any one of three children! It was this very same night, early hours of 2nd May (2007) that the McCann parents returned back to their apartment (tired and basically worn out') and 'Kate' chose not to sleep in the same bedroom, or the bed. She has since maintained, that she had slept in the children's bedroom, and that she was doing so, because of a snoring habit, her husband 'Gerald McCann had at that stage!
« Last Edit: April 25, 2022, 08:11:AM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5844 on: May 06, 2022, 07:16:PM »
An overview of the case on This Morning: https://youtu.be/KzBVGQtm_98

Offline Fairplay1

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5845 on: May 12, 2022, 04:55:PM »
I have always sat myself on the fence with this and just recently started to refresh , and realised that my sitting on the fence is more to do with feeling angry at the mccanns for putting their child in danger but I'm now inclined to think they made the worst decision of their life's with dreadful consequences, nobody knows better than them they let their child down and they will suffer forever.

Abduction was absolutely possible due to the mccanns and the tapas 7 leaving their children in an unsafe environment , the wrong person watching them each night leave their children on their own they sadly not intentionally created an opportunity for a predator to take advantage.  They made a really bad decision and no one knows better than them , I sense this is why the Mccanns never give up they let her down in that one moment and they must never give up on her now.
 
Look at the lead detective who in hearing of a young child being missing decided to finish his night and start his detective work the following morning, this behaviour and decision making is very flawed . Everybody knows those first hours of a missing child is crucial , this really does tell you a lot about the Portugese investigation . No matter how wrong the mccanns were this police investigation was diabolical from the onset so I can see why the mccanns sued this guy . He is beyond unprofessional his track record is dreadful and people some how think he knows the truth what merit or credibility can anyone give this guy just check out his previous dealings in finding missing children it's horrendous .He is nothing but a fraud and the Portugese police were right to get shot he was/is a complete liability . That's why I cannot sit on the fence no more , they made a horrendous decision which I believe resulted in their child been taken . Their is no doubt in my mind that abduction was an absolute possablility given all the factors , yes the family should be investigated but to exclude abduction as being possible is nonsense.

Here's hoping their will be some type of resolve although I fear the worst , but holding on to some hope ?
« Last Edit: May 12, 2022, 06:12:PM by Fairplay1 »

Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5846 on: May 12, 2022, 11:01:PM »
Did anyone watch the MWT investigation in to Christian B?

Offline Fairplay1

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5847 on: May 13, 2022, 09:53:AM »
Did anyone watch the MWT investigation in to Christian B?


Yes ,from his detective work on the "new suspect" it seems like a dead end with this German guy.  But I am reading that a lot of people don't rate him .  I'm not sure if the people who are running him down are angry because he obv does not support this German guy being the abducter which then leaves it still open or they just feel he is a poor investigating journalist.

I wonder if their will ever be an answer to all this.  I still even though I am moving more to abduction still have my reservations with some of the characters from the tapas 9 but that's it just niggles at this time.





Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5848 on: May 13, 2022, 03:02:PM »
Yes ,from his detective work on the "new suspect" it seems like a dead end with this German guy.  But I am reading that a lot of people don't rate him .  I'm not sure if the people who are running him down are angry because he obv does not support this German guy being the abducter which then leaves it still open or they just feel he is a poor investigating journalist.

Yes, I was thinking along these lines. He had a researcher in both Portugal and Germany and claimed that the program was the result of six months of research.

The German prosecutor looked uncomfortable when fielding MWT's questions. He appeared to gulp at one point.

Either the Germans have something much stronger that they're keeping schtum about .. or MWT may be correct regarding CB.

Mind you, he (CB) is a proper wrong'un.  But interesting what the defence lawyer stated in captions at the end (regarding the rape DNA evidence).
« Last Edit: May 13, 2022, 04:30:PM by Roch »

Offline Fairplay1

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5849 on: May 14, 2022, 08:37:AM »
Yes, I was thinking along these lines. He had a researcher in both Portugal and Germany and claimed that the program was the result of six months of research.

The German prosecutor looked uncomfortable when fielding MWT's questions. He appeared to gulp at one point.

Either the Germans have something much stronger that they're keeping schtum about .. or MWT may be correct regarding CB.

Mind you, he (CB) is a proper wrong'un.  But interesting what the defence lawyer stated in captions at the end (regarding the rape DNA evidence).


Yes I agree , he certainly looks like a good fit but it seems from MWT investigation he is not at this time with the evidence he has looked into supportive  ,but maybe the German Lawyer has got something that MWT has not got access to but I do wander what that could be for the lawyer to be so sure, and how long will it take for it to come out

I don't really have an opinion on MWT , I thought he did a good job looking at CB but I know people who fully support the abduction don't rate his research ability and have criticised his investigative skills but I tend to think if he had done his research and confirmed what they all wanted to hear that CB is their man they would feel different , once the bias is their people tend to reject or support depending on outcome I guess it's only human

I will have to go back and watch I might have missed that bit at the end with the rape DNA so I will give it another watch. :)