Author Topic: The case of Madeleine McCann  (Read 891684 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline lookout

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 48670
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5820 on: April 22, 2022, 10:02:AM »
He'd been suspected from the beginning so why has it taken 15 years ?

Offline David1819

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 13779
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5821 on: April 22, 2022, 05:14:PM »

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579

Offline Steve_uk

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 21091

guest29835

  • Guest
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5824 on: April 23, 2022, 10:15:AM »
I formed an opinion on this case back in 2007 by looking at press and media reports and reading posts online that went into things in more detail.  I didn't spent long on it and haven't discussed the case much since because it has always been obvious to me that the abduction explanation is plausible.  The assertion made that abduction was "materially impossible" has never been supported by hard evidence.  If it were, the McCanns would be guilty.  As matters stand, the position is uncertain and I'm not inclined to comment further other than to say that since abduction cannot be ruled out, nobody can in good conscience pronounce the McCanns guilty. I also personally don't accept that they committed child neglect in the legal sense. 

When the German police started issuing statements about Christian Bruekner to the media, what they said was mistranslated in the Anglophone world.  They were not saying he absolutely was the murderer, only that there were grounds to move against him - a subtle but important difference.  I dislike the assumption that he is guilty as much as the castigation of the McCanns.

Offline lookout

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 48670
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5825 on: April 23, 2022, 11:51:AM »
I understood that DNA ( Madeleine's ?) had been found on his van that trumped the case against him ?

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5826 on: April 23, 2022, 12:46:PM »
Are we now expected to believe, that both a blood dog and a cadavar dog just happened to separately alert in an apartment, where an infant had gone missing from.. and that these alerts were both false?

A cadavar dog will only alert for cadavar scent. A blood dog will only alert for blood scent.

Regarding the mathematical calculation of probability, what is the chance that two separate types of sniffer dogs would both alert, in an apartment where a child had gone missing from; and that those alerts were not linked to the missing child? I mean it's not impossible - but what odds would I get at Ladbrokes?

Regarding CB, he may have had involvement - or he may be being set up to take the rap, with the plan being that once and for all, the McCann's will be cleared of any taint regarding speculated involvement themselves.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2022, 12:46:PM by Roch »

guest29835

  • Guest
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5827 on: April 23, 2022, 01:29:PM »
Are we now expected to believe, that both a blood dog and a cadavar dog just happened to separately alert in an apartment, where an infant had gone missing from.. and that these alerts were both false?

A cadavar dog will only alert for cadavar scent. A blood dog will only alert for blood scent.

Regarding the mathematical calculation of probability, what is the chance that two separate types of sniffer dogs would both alert, in an apartment where a child had gone missing from; and that those alerts were not linked to the missing child? I mean it's not impossible - but what odds would I get at Ladbrokes?

Regarding CB, he may have had involvement - or he may be being set up to take the rap, with the plan being that once and for all, the McCann's will be cleared of any taint regarding speculated involvement themselves.

Blood dog - she was staying in the apartment with her parents and siblings for a holiday, so simply detecting her blood, or any human blood, in the apartment establishes nothing of importance, assuming we can even rely on such a dog.  Had the police found blood patterns that indicated an assault, that would be different, but no such thing occurred.  As far as I am aware, none of her blood has even been seen or detected using forensic methods.

Cadaver dog - is the dog detecting a specific cadaver or cadavers in general?  If cadavers in general, then who is to say that nobody other than Madeleine McCann has died in that apartment or that articles and effects in the apartment have not come into contact with dead bodies other than Madeleine McCann?  Again, proves nothing.  If the cadaver dogs are somehow trained to detect the dynamic envelope of specific bodies, this also establishes nothing in legal terms.  As I think I have mentioned before, it's doubtful such evidence would be admissible in a criminal trial, in Portugal or England, because you can't cross-examine a dog.  A dog is an instinctual, highly trainable animal but not an automaton exactly, so the results will be inherently unreliable. 

What these dogs are doing is providing a guide to investigators.  Their main role is in searches rather than investigations per se.  It's similar to the role of drug dogs.  Nobody can be convicted of a drugs offence just because a dog starts barking at them.  The dog is pointing at something, but the evidence still has to be found, so what happens is that the officer then has to search the person or property, or both, under the auspice of (in England & Wales) 'reasonable suspicion', which is section 1 of PACE.  It's the dog's reaction that forms the basis of the reasonable suspicion - specifically, it is the fact that a trained dog has started barking when about your presence, which raises a reasonable basis for believing you may have drugs on your person.  However, if no drugs are found on your person, then that is the end of it.  I reiterate that you can't be taken to court just because you or your car, property or effects have been barked at by a dog.  I am not conversant with the criminal laws of Portugal, which in some respects are fundamentally different to ours, but the standard of proof is likely to be similar, so these observations will hold in Portugal too.

The drug dog analogy can be applied to the McCanns.  The reaction of dogs is an indication that evidence might be found in the apartment or in a car or whatever.  It raises suspicion and I expect this was one of the reasons they became Persons of Interest under judicial protection (arguidos).  But it is not hard evidence in itself.  You can't convict the McCanns of murder just because some dogs started barking.  You'd have to be barking to think like that.

We're still left in the position that there is no solid evidence to support the contention that abduction was 'materially impossible'.  Barking dogs makes no difference and I have not seen anything else that would assail the abduction theory.  That doesn't mean the McCanns are innocent, but in my view it does mean that we have no right to start casting aspersions on them.  They may be completely innocent and they remain innocent in law.  That being the case, why do people still keep acting like they're certain the McCanns are guilty of something?  What evidence do you have exactly?  I always ask this question and I never receive a convincing answer.

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5828 on: April 23, 2022, 01:39:PM »
Blood dog - she was staying in the apartment with her parents and siblings for a holiday, so simply detecting her blood, or any human blood, in the apartment establishes nothing of importance, assuming we can even rely on such a dog.  Had the police found blood patterns that indicated an assault, that would be different, but no such thing occurred.  As far as I am aware, none of her blood has even been seen or detected using forensic methods.

Cadaver dog - is the dog detecting a specific cadaver or cadavers in general?  If cadavers in general, then, who is to say that nobody has died in that apartment or that articles and effects in the apartment have not come into contact with dead bodies?  Again, proves nothing.  If the cadaver dogs are somehow trained to detect the dynamic envelope of specific bodies, this also establishes nothing in legal terms.  As I think I have mentioned before, it's doubtful such evidence would be admissible in a criminal trial, in Portugal or England, because you can't cross-examine a dog.  A dog is an instinctual, highly trainable animal but not an automaton exactly, so the results will be inherently unreliable. 

What these dogs are doing is providing a guide to investigators.  Their main role is in searches rather than investigations per se.  It's similar to the role of drug dogs.  Nobody can be convicted of a drugs offence just because a dog starts barking at them.  The dog is pointing at something, but the evidence still has to be found, so what happens is that the officer then has to search the person or property, or both, under the auspice of (in England & Wales) 'reasonable suspicion', which is section 1 of PACE.  It's the dog's reaction that forms the basis of the reasonable suspicion - specifically, it is the fact that a trained dog has started barking when about your presence, which raises a reasonable basis for believing you may have drugs on your person.  However, if no drugs are found on your person, then that is the end of it.  I reiterate that you can't be taken to court just because you or your car, property or effects have been barked at by a dog.  I am not conversant with the criminal laws of Portugal, which in some respects are fundamentally different to ours, but the standard of proof is likely to be similar, so these observations will hold in Portugal too.

The drug dog analogy can be applied to the McCanns.  The reaction of dogs is an indication that evidence might be found in the apartment or in a car or whatever.  It raises suspicion and I expect this was one of the reasons they became Persons of Interest under judicial protection (arguidos).  But it is not hard evidence in itself.  You can't convict the McCanns of murder just because some dogs started barking.  You'd have to be barking to think like that.

We're still left in the position that there is no solid evidence to support the contention that abduction was 'materially impossible'.  Barking dogs makes no difference and I have not seen anything else that would assail the abduction theory.  That doesn't mean the McCanns are innocent, but in my view, it does mean that we have no right to start casting aspersions on them.  They may be completely innocent and they remain innocent in law.  That being the case, why do people still keep acting like they're certain the McCanns are guilty of something?  What evidence do you have exactly?  I always ask this question and I never receive a convincing answer.

Maybe you're asking the wrong question. A taint of suspicion which is supported by two former senior officers is not proof of guilt. Nevertheless, it is not insignificant. My question of probability still stands. What are the odds that both alerts are unconnected to Maddie? If we want to really ramp up the probability, what chance that in addition, a 3rd alert to the boot of the hire car and door well, are also unconnected?

If I was a bookmaker, what odds would I offer?
« Last Edit: April 23, 2022, 01:43:PM by Roch »

guest29835

  • Guest
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5829 on: April 23, 2022, 01:52:PM »
Maybe you're asking the wrong question. A taint of suspicion which is supported by two former senior officers is not proof of guilt. Nevertheless, it is not insignificant. My question of probability still stands. What are the odds that both alerts are unconnected to Maddie? If we want to really ramp up the probability, what chance that in addition, a 3rd alert to the boot of the hire car and door well, are also unconnected?

If I was a bookmaker, what odds would I offer?

I'm not asking the wrong question, I'm asking the right question: What evidence do you have that tells me abduction is 'materially impossible'?  If I were an examining magistrate or grand juror, or even a prosecutor, being asked to consider whether a case against the McCanns should proceed and they should be indicted on serious criminal charges, the very first thing I would say to the Portuguese judicial police is:

You say abduction is 'materially impossible'.  Please provide a summary bullet point list of the evidence that tells me this.  I don't need detail at this stage.  Just bullet points that tell me there is a case to answer.

If you think the McCanns are guilty, then give me the points.  If you can't give me the points, if it's just a 'feeling' you've got, or some big-brained conspiracy theory that has no structural support in facts and evidence, then I can dismiss everything you say on this topic as immature and irrational.  That's not to say I am approaching this with any feeling or being antagonistic or confrontational.  I have no stake in this.  But I'm not going to go round declaring people guilty just because I've got that 'feeling' about them or I have some sort of anti-Establishment agenda.  These are real people, let me remind you.

As for bookmakers, I've no idea what you're talking about.  I've just told you the factors that undermine the reliability of dogs and also why they have no place in executive decisions about criminal investigations.  These points go to probability.  You can't assess probabilities abstractly in the way you seem to think.  That's very naive of you.  Bookmakers and professional gamblers don't work like that.  They do their research and bring insight into it: for instance, they learn about equestrianism and the rudiments of everything from hippology to turf management and racecourse maintenance.  Same applies in whatever sport they are betting on at a serious level. 

This, too, is at a serious level.  Let's be serious.

Offline Roch

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17579
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5830 on: April 23, 2022, 02:37:PM »
I'm not asking the wrong question, I'm asking the right question: What evidence do you have that tells me abduction is 'materially impossible'?  If I were an examining magistrate or grand juror, or even a prosecutor, being asked to consider whether a case against the McCanns should proceed and they should be indicted on serious criminal charges, the very first thing I would say to the Portuguese judicial police is:

You say abduction is 'materially impossible'.  Please provide a summary bullet point list of the evidence that tells me this.  I don't need detail at this stage.  Just bullet points that tell me there is a case to answer.

If you think the McCanns are guilty, then give me the points.  If you can't give me the points, if it's just a 'feeling' you've got, or some big-brained conspiracy theory that has no structural support in facts and evidence, then I can dismiss everything you say on this topic as immature and irrational.  That's not to say I am approaching this with any feeling or being antagonistic or confrontational.  I have no stake in this.  But I'm not going to go round declaring people guilty just because I've got that 'feeling' about them or I have some sort of anti-Establishment agenda.  These are real people, let me remind you.

As for bookmakers, I've no idea what you're talking about.  I've just told you the factors that undermine the reliability of dogs and also why they have no place in executive decisions about criminal investigations.  These points go to probability.  You can't assess probabilities abstractly in the way you seem to think.  That's very naive of you.  Bookmakers and professional gamblers don't work like that.  They do their research and bring insight into it: for instance, they learn about equestrianism and the rudiments of everything from hippology to turf management and racecourse maintenance.  Same applies in whatever sport they are betting on at a serious level. 

This, too, is at a serious level.  Let's be serious.

You've lost me here  ::). I will reply when I have time.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2022, 02:38:PM by Roch »

Offline Bubo bubo

  • Veteran Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3340
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5831 on: April 23, 2022, 05:23:PM »
I just thought I would give my views on this case. For what it is worth I spent many months in the early naughties traveling aroung Portugal in our motor home. My brothers have properties further up the coast but we spent a lot of time on the Algarve.

When the case first hit the headlines I speculated that it might have been a 'weirdo' who was committing a burglary which went horribly wrong. I know not to judge a book by its cover but campsites in this area contained many Strange/suspicious  and unsavoury looking characters on these local campsites.

I speculated that he had accidentally killed her because (a) he could have clamped his hand over her face to stifle screams or cries and suffocated her. or (b) he broke her neck as she struggled to escape his grasp when she found him rummaging in the apartment. She was a fragile young thing from her photos.

Of course you may say I am making this theory up to fit the current news. I do not nor would I sink that low.

But the current suspect as has been said circumstantially looks like a good fit to me but that does not make him guilty. Given my previous thoughts this news seems to confirm my thinking.

 

Offline Steve_uk

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 21091
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5832 on: April 23, 2022, 08:14:PM »
I just thought I would give my views on this case. For what it is worth I spent many months in the early naughties traveling aroung Portugal in our motor home. My brothers have properties further up the coast but we spent a lot of time on the Algarve.

When the case first hit the headlines I speculated that it might have been a 'weirdo' who was committing a burglary which went horribly wrong. I know not to judge a book by its cover but campsites in this area contained many Strange/suspicious  and unsavoury looking characters on these local campsites.

I speculated that he had accidentally killed her because (a) he could have clamped his hand over her face to stifle screams or cries and suffocated her. or (b) he broke her neck as she struggled to escape his grasp when she found him rummaging in the apartment. She was a fragile young thing from her photos.

Of course you may say I am making this theory up to fit the current news. I do not nor would I sink that low.

But the current suspect as has been said circumstantially looks like a good fit to me but that does not make him guilty. Given my previous thoughts this news seems to confirm my thinking.

 
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626

Offline Bubo bubo

  • Veteran Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3340
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5833 on: April 23, 2022, 08:28:PM »
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626

DNA?

Offline mike tesko

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 51079
Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #5834 on: April 25, 2022, 12:50:AM »
Anybody who looks dispassionately at this case must acknowledge that Christian B is a good suspect. If Madeleine had died in the apartment one wonders why he didn't just leave the body there 'He' couldn't have left 'Madeliene McCanns' body 'there' on the 3rd May 2007, because 'she was (had been)' already collected' or 'taken' from the 'McCann' apartment, 'two days', or 'so' earlier, whilst 'her parents' were 'conveniently enjoying an extended break from parenthood' at 'Kelly's bar'  which was / is only 'a stones throw away from the village church' (where almost three days later, 'the parents were given unrestricted access' to 'it' and 'the derelict building', situated 'directly across the road', on the pretense that they were seeking to avoid media attention! . https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52937626
« Last Edit: April 25, 2022, 01:04:AM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...