Author Topic: The case of Madeleine McCann  (Read 891562 times)

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Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #420 on: May 26, 2011, 08:02:PM »
Ah the video clip from the panorama documentary....when Kate demonstrates the door slamming shut due to wind...as per her account of checking on the children about 10.00pm.

Well I watched that and listened carefully to her words to do statement analysis...and
in my view she is lying her head off. The signs of deception here are very strong and heavy. In my view .. She is faking in the claim and fabricating  and  though physically she went to the appartment about 10.00pm it was not  then that she found Maddie was not there. It is my view that she knew well before that Maddie was not there as something had happened to her much earlier and that her actions about 10.00pm were a charade.
Her words betray her!!!!

Basically  ..as she gives her account on video...she cant deny it or claim they were someone else's words or the transcript is wrong. Caught...
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Curtains at bedroom window would have been sucked out, and the bedroom door slammed shut, as soon as Kate entered the apartment at about 10pm, but according to her, the bedroom door was ajar, which she reset and at that stage the bedroom door slammed shut, and upon opening the bedroom door again, she saw the curtains had blown open, exposing the open window and the raised steel shutter...

Only way this could have happened was if someone else entered the apartment, or left via one of the closed doors - creating a vacuum, yet according to Kate, there was no-one else there at 5a, when she went back there to discover Maddie gone, and no-one arrived there before she went to the tapas bar to raise the general alarm...

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #421 on: May 26, 2011, 08:06:PM »
Yours truly, outside St Vincents church in PDL, June 2010

Closing in on the truth...
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 08:07:PM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #422 on: May 26, 2011, 08:10:PM »
View of apartment 5a from outside door of apartment 6 in next block:-
« Last Edit: May 28, 2011, 06:10:AM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #423 on: May 26, 2011, 08:16:PM »
Apartment 6, where I stayed during my week long visit to Portugal in June 2010
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 09:15:PM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline gordo30

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #424 on: May 26, 2011, 10:10:PM »
Looked at David Paynes statement..and  a few things stand out using statement analysis.
A main part of it that looks totally wrong is his claimed visit to the McCann appartment at 6.30pm..
There are so many problems with this that my view is that he did not visit at this time at all.
The main effect being that as he never went at 6.30pm or there abouts he could not have seen Kate or the children ...so effectively...other than the McCann's no one else see's Maddie after 5.30pm.

The other main area of lying ..is to do with the holiday organising and how the couples know each other and the relationships between them. This is a very sensitive area for him...and a number of the others in the group that I have so far had the chance to do statement analysis work on.  Tanner  and O'Brien both seem to have similar sensitivities in regards to the same issue.

The final issue is night time arrangements...David Payne ..brushes over who visited who's flat and steers clear of late night and early morning arrangements . He is being very evasive on these matters  in regards to the days before the Maddie event. It is a sensitive issue and may be related to similar sensitiviries in regards to the relationships within the group.

Hi smiffy your take on things is very interesting as I felt also that the 7pm returning to the tennis court for David Payne was and may have been the only initial time that he had went there. I believe there was some argument between G McCann and Mr Payne regarding is inability to play tennis between 6-7 pm after the court had been booked.
The 6:30 meeting should have been a more "whats happening are you gonna play" type of thing had he went there at 6:30. This turned into a more casual(lets say pre determined) meeting about where Kate was?? why!!

The booking of the court from 6-7pm is in itself suspicious in regards to the routine the McCanns were in at that point, they normally bathed the children around this time and thats exactly what Kate was doing when D Payne turned up after 6:30. Is there anyway to find out at what time the court had been booked that day for 6-7pm?

Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #425 on: May 26, 2011, 11:11:PM »
This case is becoming required reading on the forum.  Would be canny to get Amaral interested in the Bamber case.

Offline smiffy

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #426 on: May 27, 2011, 08:41:AM »
Looked at David Paynes statement..and  a few things stand out using statement analysis.
A main part of it that looks totally wrong is his claimed visit to the McCann appartment at 6.30pm..
There are so many problems with this that my view is that he did not visit at this time at all.
The main effect being that as he never went at 6.30pm or there abouts he could not have seen Kate or the children ...so effectively...other than the McCann's no one else see's Maddie after 5.30pm.

The other main area of lying ..is to do with the holiday organising and how the couples know each other and the relationships between them. This is a very sensitive area for him...and a number of the others in the group that I have so far had the chance to do statement analysis work on.  Tanner  and O'Brien both seem to have similar sensitivities in regards to the same issue.

The final issue is night time arrangements...David Payne ..brushes over who visited who's flat and steers clear of late night and early morning arrangements . He is being very evasive on these matters  in regards to the days before the Maddie event. It is a sensitive issue and may be related to similar sensitiviries in regards to the relationships within the group.

Hi smiffy your take on things is very interesting as I felt also that the 7pm returning to the tennis court for David Payne was and may have been the only initial time that he had went there. I believe there was some argument between G McCann and Mr Payne regarding is inability to play tennis between 6-7 pm after the court had been booked.
The 6:30 meeting should have been a more "whats happening are you gonna play" type of thing had he went there at 6:30. This turned into a more casual(lets say pre determined) meeting about where Kate was?? why!!

The booking of the court from 6-7pm is in itself suspicious in regards to the routine the McCanns were in at that point, they normally bathed the children around this time and thats exactly what Kate was doing when D Payne turned up after 6:30. Is there anyway to find out at what time the court had been booked that day for 6-7pm?

basically..without revealing too much statement analysis wise;;or getting too long winded.

David Payne ...claims he went with 2 of the other males to the tennis court and met Gerry there...that is clear enough....DP then fails to commit to his exchange with Gerry...raising doubt he spoke with Gerry about Kate and the kids at all and about his reason for DP to check/call in on Kate.(my view no check up was spoken of).
The 3 men head off to their appartments together it seems...and later all 3 head back to the tennis courts after changing into suitable clothing.
DP fails to commit on whether he went to the McCans appartment before changing clothes or after....and also fails to commit to whether he entered by the door or the patio doors... he is supposed to be on his own here and uses the singular I for his claimed visit. The claimed content of his visit is dodgy...
However in his statement story...David speaks of leaving the McCann appartment and uses the word "we" when he should have used the word I. He was supposed to be on his own.  The liar slipped up in his fabricated story.
When DP gets back to the tennis court ..again he fails to commit to this part of the story in regards to his exchange with Gerry...which again strongly suggests ..DP never went and checked as per his claims and that his whole claimed visit to the McCann appartment is a fabrication  and that it may have been created to allow the claim that Maddie was alive and all ok at 6.30pm when it may not have been the case.

If I am correct then WHY LIE..and retrospectively create a claimed sighting of Maddie , Kate etc for 6.30pm by DP...it raises suspicion that something may have gone wrong in regards to Maddie about 6.30pm or before.

It is this time before 6.30pm that day that is my current interest and that I feel may hold the key to the mystery.

This is a great case for using statement analysis ..as so much is filmed or transcripted and available to go over and in some cases there is plenty of material to establish peoples baselines for speech useage.
The liars are open to be exposed and more of the truth revealed. I have seen enough in the statements to rule out any abductor and any wandering off by Maddie.

Gerry is keen to say...there is no evidence of Maddies death.
to which I remind him ...there is evidence that suggests Maddies death.

I would like to also remind him....there is no evidence of Maddie being adbucted.
and there is no evidence of Maddie having wandered off.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2011, 08:46:AM by smiffy »

Offline smiffy

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #427 on: May 27, 2011, 01:03:PM »
looked at Mathew Oldfiels statement to Leicestershire Police.
applied statement analysis to it and not happy with a number of things.
The main fabrication that comes across is his claim to enter the McCanns appartment to check on the 3 children at approx 9.30pm. This part of the statement appears to be an entire fabrication and that in my view he never entered the appartment at all. He seems to have checked on his own appartment only.

It raises the issue that as to why he has made this up?  to cover that ...no proper checking was really taking place of the McCanns appartment and making people look responsible when they were not.
Within this fabrication he claims to see the two younger children in their cots...but not Maddie as her bed could not be viewed...so he partly commits .. but anyone could have done that knowing later on that the two younger children were not missing. In regards to Maddie...again ..he should have seen her if he was there..but he was not in my view. If you enter an appartment for the purpose of seeing 3 children are ok then you need to see them and not presume them to be present or the check has no value. Only a few seconds and a few steps forward would have provided a satisfactory check...and he claimed to be there for about 2 minutes.
Why make it all up...why not be truthful...something to hide?

other issues...
Oldfields account of the tennis and thus David Paynes claimed visit to Kate about 6.30pm...well Oldfields version of this undermines Davids' claim and supports my view that DP never visited Kate and the 3 kids as he claimed.

The nature of the relationships between the various couples in regards to their holiday arrangements etc is also an area of sensitivity and deception as seen with other members of the group.



Offline Roch

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #428 on: May 27, 2011, 01:13:PM »
Smiffy, this statement analysis approach... purley out of interest... can you give any insight as to how you apply its principles etc?  Is it a known method that you have studied?

Offline joolz1975

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #429 on: May 27, 2011, 03:07:PM »
Smiffy, this statement analysis approach... purley out of interest... can you give any insight as to how you apply its principles etc?  Is it a known method that you have studied?

I was going to ask the same!

Offline gordo30

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #430 on: May 27, 2011, 04:32:PM »
I must admit it also came to my mind how exactly statement analysis and its fundamentals from someone on line can be worked with and reasoned with. I suppose its unlike any other science in that its findings more or less show just what happens when common sense and relative thinking are applied in proportion to what people say. It is a science where so many things can be flawed similar to micro expressionism but then when you add that sense of reasoning it is easy to say YES that is right because that is what I take from what so and so say!

Its not hard to see that J Tanner has by all accounts acted as someone who has installed a belief in us of the abduction theory but more or less made her information useless to the outcome. She has by definition been a pawn in a game where the result is far away beyond our own reasoning. What she has done is lay the ground work for that abduction theory without actually incriminating anyone and things have snow balled from there.

It is my own feeling and my own hope that when/if the body of Maddie is discovered then the arrests of Gerry & Kate will take place and they will have to be accountable for the actions.

If we have someone able and willing to look at things from this perspective of analysing statements and if that analysis sits easy with us and we can relate to it then I for one thank smiffy for his/her's efforts.

Offline smiffy

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #431 on: May 27, 2011, 06:11:PM »
Smiffy, this statement analysis approach... purley out of interest... can you give any insight as to how you apply its principles etc?  Is it a known method that you have studied?

its very effective... it is sometimes called forensic linguistics...a very useful investigative tool.

you can research it if you want .....
doing full breakdowns on parts of statements as to why conclusions are reached can take a while and be long winded...sometimes small bits are broken down as an example.

liars are fairly easy to detect in some cases...however giving away all the methods used is not a good idea as those reading up can change things such as forum posts or future evidence to a degree to get around it. That as well as time is why I dont practise giving big breakdowns in forum posts  and limit what I do put.

the statement analysis I am doing in this case...is purely that...my assessments based purely on the statements independent of other information in the case or other peoples views etc or other information available....

once experience is gained using statement analysis ...some deceptions are very easy to spot. In other cases the liar is far more evasive and less obvious...but most the time indicators are found that can suggest areas to be investigated further or hidden information.


oh Jane Tanner..her fabrication in one statement alone is obvious without needing to see changes between her changes of account.

as a side note on Tanner she refers to passing by Gerry and Jeremy...hmm who both did not see her... but she missed something out...that Jeremy was pushing his child around in a pram/push chair...how did she miss that ...doh

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #432 on: May 27, 2011, 07:49:PM »
Cul de sac, next to apartment block across the road from where Maddie went missing

View of apartment 6, where I stayed in June 2010:-
« Last Edit: May 27, 2011, 07:51:PM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #433 on: May 27, 2011, 07:53:PM »
Apartment 5a, is just out of sight to the left in the last image, but this is the road that runs adjacent to it - the cul de sac, affords access to a footpath that leads down towards the sea (if you go right) or back up to the roadside of that apartment (if you turn left on the far side of the cul de sac)...
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...

Offline mike tesko

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Re: The case of Madeleine McCann
« Reply #434 on: May 27, 2011, 07:55:PM »
Road that leads to the "baptiste supermarket" from the vicinty of apartment 5a:-

As everyone can see the journey to the "baptiste supermarket" would not have taken very long to negotiate, basically put, just a couple of hundred yards or so down the road...
« Last Edit: May 27, 2011, 07:59:PM by mike tesko »
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive"...