Since there seems to be a bit of a lull on the site I thought I would give my thoughts on the forthcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton in two days' time, a constituency I know well. The vacancy arose because the previous incumbent wrote derogatory messages on WhatsApp, including he hoped one of his pensioner constituents would die, and an Anglican priest should be
"burnt on a bonfire."
There are really only three parties with a chance of winning, though I post a link to all the candidates at the end.
Labour have held the seat for generations, apart from a period in the 1950s. It's the sixth safest seat for Labour in the country. The key will be how the Labour votes of 2024 will be dispersed. The candidate, Ms. Angeliki Stogia was born in Arta, Greece, became a naturalized British citizen and currently is councillor for Whalley Range, one of the poorest Manchester wards. She is concentrating on local issues, but will face a backlash from the Keir Starmer mismanagement, the Gaza conflict and the white working class, which is increasingly deserting Labour for Reform.
Reform are represented by Matt Goodwin, former university academic and GB News presenter. Though a credible candidate he's possibly not the best suited to appeal to such a working class constituency, though he claims Northern roots through his attendance at Salford University, where he used to deliver pizzas as a student. His strength will be in the Denton part of the constituency, which is 83% white, compared to Gorton, Abbey Hey, Burnage and Levenshulme, where Muslims account for 40% of the population. Students and graduates in this part of the constituency comprise 42% of the electorate.
It's the Greens which have seized the initiative in recent days. Hannah Spencer makes great play of the fact that she gets her hands dirty fixing toilets as a plumber, though I've been told she now installs heat pumps. She's a personable young lady and has gained momentum, with a slick campaign focusing on alleged genocide in Gaza to attract the Muslim vote, delivering leaflets in Urdu outside mosques in the constituency. She's vulnerable to the charge of carpetbagger, given that she made derogatory comments about the area a few years ago and now lives in probably the wealthiest part of Manchester in Hale with up until recently her engineer partner, though I've been told they have now split up after buying a second home in Altrincham.
The result will depend on voter turnout, though I suspect Hannah might just receive enough Labour protest votes to snatch the seat.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkrpgvkd0no
