Kursk - Ukrainian forces becoming encircled.

[Roch]

Looks like they are in trouble. I hope a ceasefire can be negotiated quickly. Far too many lives lost on both sides.

[gringo]

    There will be no more ceasefires, Roch. NATO and their proxy will not get another opportunity like Minsk or Minsk 2. They have no interest in anything but the defeat of Russia and have demonstrated that they cannot negotiate in good faith. After admitting that Minsk 2 was never intended to be abided by, but was simply, "To buy time to re-arm", it was destined that the firing will only cease with the surrender of the NATO proxy. This has always been predictable and inevitable.

[Roch]

    There will be no more ceasefires, Roch. NATO and their proxy will not get another opportunity like Minsk or Minsk 2. They have no interest in anything but the defeat of Russia and have demonstrated that they cannot negotiate in good faith. After admitting that Minsk 2 was never intended to be abided by, but was simply, "To buy time to re-arm", it was destined that the firing will only cease with the surrender of the NATO proxy. This has always been predictable and inevitable.

What a waste of life. Who would be a new ally of the US eh? All it takes is a change of president and you're hung out to dry. They're like a serial abuser.

[David1819]

Looks like they are in trouble. I hope a ceasefire can be negotiated quickly. Far too many lives lost on both sides.

Considering Russia signed the Budapest agreement. Whereby Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and Russia promised to respect its sovereignty in return. Ukraine wont trust anything signed by Russia.

[nugnug]

Considering Russia signed the Budapest agreement. Whereby Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and Russia promised to respect its sovereignty in return. Ukraine wont trust anything signed by Russia.

ukrine never had nukes the soviet union had them Ukraine didn't have the codes to them they couldn't of used them anyway

[gringo]

What a waste of life. Who would be a new ally of the US eh? All it takes is a change of president and you're hung out to dry. They're like a serial abuser.

   I would not let UK, France, Germany off the hook for this along with the US and their Ukrainian co-conspirators, Roch. They are all to blame for the waste of lives. It is the leadership of those countries who have refused peace and only wish to defeat Russia. The patience of the Russians has paid off in terms of world opinion. It is clear to all who the obstacles to peace are. US/UK/France/EU/NATO et al are not reliable partners and are all serial abusers. They have all stood in the way of peace and encouraged Ukrainian leadership to send more and more to their deaths. They have done this with the goal of attriting and weakening Russia, not any of the supposed "noble goals" that they claim.
      A ceasefire is no solution, Roch. There needs to be "terms" agreed for any ceasefire now. A full settlement because simply stopping at the frontlines as they currently exist splits oblasts and leads to an inevitable re-arming to re-start hostilities later. Russia have learned this from Minsk and Istanbul. Any ceasefire will be when whoever is negotiating "on behalf of Ukraine" this week accepts the Russian terms. 

[David1819]

What a waste of life. Who would be a new ally of the US eh? All it takes is a change of president and you're hung out to dry. They're like a serial abuser.

Trump is hopefully a one off. The guy is unhinged and cant help see an opportunity to profit from the situation. Hence the mineral deal. And putting Tariffs on Canada etc.

[gringo]

Considering Russia signed the Budapest agreement. Whereby Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and Russia promised to respect its sovereignty in return. Ukraine wont trust anything signed by Russia.

    Did US also promise to "respect the sovereignty" of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum? If so, what to make of the intercepted call during the coup in 2014 between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt? Any breach of the respect of Ukraine sovereignty was committed long prior to Minsk or the SMO. Your whole understanding of Budapest memorandum is contained within one sentence as you demonstrate above. It is anyway moot at this point, David. The "non agreement capable" side is recognised by all now. In light of unfolding events, you ought to be having a re-think. It should be clear to even you by now that the stories and BS that you have spouted over the years are propaganda and divorced from reality.
     What you have claimed to be a weak Russia, both militarily and economically, have taken on NATO and NATO are now splintering and bickering amongst themselves. You should take stock, have a re-think and recognise the facts on the ground. 

[Steve_uk]

    Did US also promise to "respect the sovereignty" of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum? If so, what to make of the intercepted call during the coup in 2014 between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt? Any breach of the respect of Ukraine sovereignty was committed long prior to Minsk or the SMO. Your whole understanding of Budapest memorandum is contained within one sentence as you demonstrate above. It is anyway moot at this point, David. The "non agreement capable" side is recognised by all now. In light of unfolding events, you ought to be having a re-think. It should be clear to even you by now that the stories and BS that you have spouted over the years are propaganda and divorced from reality.
     What you have claimed to be a weak Russia, both militarily and economically, have taken on NATO and NATO are now splintering and bickering amongst themselves. You should take stock, have a re-think and recognise the facts on the ground.

Ukraine has had free and fair elections since then, which Zelensky won. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have died in vain, not to mention Ukrainians and mass population displacement. It's all old hat 1940s Cold War stuff. Now both Russia and USA can reduce each other's countries to a heap of ash, thus putting the efficacy of conventional forces in perspective. Russia's Poseidon Status-6 missiles can create a 500 metre-tsunami over the UK and Ireland destroying every human being in a matter of minutes. Russia's is a Pyrrhic victory at best. One hopes after Putin's death there may be some rapprochement and post-Trump 2028 some reconcilement between the USA and other NATO members.

[David1819]

    Did US also promise to "respect the sovereignty" of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum? If so, what to make of the intercepted call during the coup in 2014 between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt?

As far as I know the Budapest Memorandum does not prohibit anyone making telephone calls.

[gringo]

Ukraine has had free and fair elections since then, which Zelensky won. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have died in vain, not to mention Ukrainians and mass population displacement. It's all old hat 1940s Cold War stuff. Now both Russia and USA can reduce each other's countries to a heap of ash, thus putting the efficacy of conventional forces in perspective. Russia's Poseidon Status-6 missiles can create a 500 metre-tsunami over the UK and Ireland destroying every human being in a matter of minutes. Russia's is a Pyrrhic victory at best. One hopes after Putin's death there may be some rapprochement and post-Trump 2028 some reconcilement between the USA and other NATO members.

   All of your predictions of Russia's imminent demise have been shown to be wishful thinking rather than objective analysis. Russia will achieve what they set out to do. Ukraine will be de-militarised and any agreement will enforce this. Crimea and the four oblasts will be in totality Russian territory. Referendums will be held in other oblasts, some of which may also go to Russia. NATO will have no presence in Ukraine. NATO missiles will not remain in Romania. Russia's victory is anything but Pyrrhic. NATO defeat is total and it is unlikely to remain intact as an organisation.

[gringo]

As far as I know the Budapest Memorandum does not prohibit anyone making telephone calls.

    It does prohibit not "respecting the sovereignty" of Ukraine. The phone call in question makes clear that the US had already crossed this line. Your attempt to reduce this to the "making of a phone call" displays your seriousness. It is the content of the call, David, that is pertinent. Not the act of making a call.

[Steve_uk]

   All of your predictions of Russia's imminent demise have been shown to be wishful thinking rather than objective analysis. Russia will achieve what they set out to do. Ukraine will be de-militarised and any agreement will enforce this. Crimea and the four oblasts will be in totality Russian territory. Referendums will be held in other oblasts, some of which may also go to Russia. NATO will have no presence in Ukraine. NATO missiles will not remain in Romania. Russia's victory is anything but Pyrrhic. NATO defeat is total and it is unlikely to remain intact as an organisation.

Why? Because a 78-year-old lame duck president speculates on the break-up of NATO?

[gringo]

Looks like they are in trouble. I hope a ceasefire can be negotiated quickly. Far too many lives lost on both sides.

      If you flip this, Roch, then you see the absurdity of a "negotiated ceasefire". Imagine the roles are reversed and it is the Russians facing an imminent routing. Would you say that it is time for a "negotiated ceasefire" or would you say that the Russians need to surrender? NATO/Ukraine need to accept the terms presented by the Russians. Those terms will bear an uncanny resemblance to the "Security Framework" proposal/ultimatum presented by the Russians in December 2021.
      It appears that the UK is being singled out as a main instigator. Both Trump and Russia have scores to settle with UK MI6. Funnily enough, Christopher Steele was interviewed on Sky News a few days ago. That such a discredited and obvious MI6 agent is still brought onto the news as a supposed "expert" demonstrates their lack of credibility. Steele was the author of the infamous "Steele Dossier" which led to Russiagate and the largely successful attempt to nobble Trump's first term in office.
     Christopher Steele was also the "handler" of Russian spy, Sergei Skripal and was his neighbour in Salisbury. He was also subject to a "D" notice at the time of the "Novichok" pantomime prohibiting mention of his name in connection with Skripal. Pablo Miller and "Orbis Intelligence" were also subject to this "D Notice". Orbis, a supposed private company, is an obvious MI6 cut-out.

     Sky News earlier with statement from a "Kremlin spokesman";

https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1899072687646929223
     
     
     

[David1819]

    It does prohibit not "respecting the sovereignty" of Ukraine. The phone call in question makes clear that the US had already crossed this line. Your attempt to reduce this to the "making of a phone call" displays your seriousness. It is the content of the call, David, that is pertinent. Not the act of making a call.

No, it does not.

"I'll elaborate on why the Nuland-Pyatt conversation doesn't formally violate the Budapest Memorandum's provisions:

The Budapest Memorandum's key commitments focus on territorial integrity, use of force, and economic coercion. The specific obligations in the agreement require signatories to:

Respect Ukrainian independence, sovereignty, and existing borders
Refrain from threatening or using force against Ukraine
Refrain from using economic pressure to subordinate Ukraine to their interests
Seek immediate UN Security Council action if Ukraine becomes a victim of aggression
Not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine

The Nuland-Pyatt call involved US diplomats discussing their preferences for the composition of a transitional Ukrainian government during a political crisis. While this represents diplomatic involvement in Ukrainian politics, several factors distinguish it from a formal violation:

Diplomatic influence vs. coercion: The memorandum prohibits coercion, particularly through military or economic means. Diplomatic conversations, even when discussing preferences for leadership, don't constitute coercion as defined in the agreement.

Sovereignty distinction: While national sovereignty includes freedom from external interference, diplomatic relations routinely involve discussions about other countries' political situations. The line between diplomatic engagement and interference is often blurry in international relations.

Intent and context: The conversation occurred in the context of an ongoing political crisis where various international actors (including the US, EU, and Russia) were engaged diplomatically.
Absence of enforcement mechanisms: The Budapest Memorandum lacks specific enforcement provisions or clear definitions of what constitutes a "violation" short of territorial aggression.

While the call might be criticized as inappropriate diplomatic behavior or as contradicting principles of non-interference, it doesn't meet the threshold of formal violation of the specific security assurances outlined in the Budapest Memorandum."