CAL - Twins being shot once each with shots 10 & 11.

[Adam]

Will look at the pros & cons of Bamber doing things things this way. Which is CAL's scenario.

[Adam]

Pros:

Adults who are most threat shot first.

Adults who are most threat shot 9 times.

Adults who are most threat dead or negated after 9 shots.

Still two bullets left for the twins after 9 bullets.

Two bullets would be enough to kill the twins.

After shooting 4 people with 11 bullets, he should have time to re load.

Four people shot in quick succession with 11 bullets. Silencer attached. Sheila unlikely to wake.

Less chance of Nevill & June waking if shot first. Unlike if twins were shot once each, first.

Goes upstairs with 11 bullets. All bullets used in quick succession. Killing or negating 4 people.

[Adam]

Cons:

Firing 9 bullets first at June and Nevill negates the chance of an 11 shot massacre.

If firing 9 bullets at June & Nevill, he might as well fire the final 2 shots at them. Then re load.

Leaving the main bedroom to shoot the twins is risky as Nevill may not be negated.

Leaving the main bedroom to re load downstairs is risky as Nevill may not be negated.

[Adam]

CAL has Bamber choosing to not go for an 11 shot massacre.

Firing 9 bullets at June and Nevill through choice, rather than because Nevill was reacting. 

[Adam]

After the 9 shots, June was still in bed & Nevill would be on the bedroom floor.

CAL has Bamber confident enough to leave them for a considerable time. To shoot the twins & re load.

[Adam]

CAL has Nevill following Bamber downstairs. Where the kitchen fight takes place.

Don't believe an injured Nevill would waste energy going downstairs unless being chased.

Bamber may hear him following him downstairs & be ready for him. There would be no element of surprise. 

More likely Nevill would wait for Bamber to return upstairs & then try to knock him out.

Bamber had thought he had killed or negated Nevill as he left him to shoot the twins. According to CAL.

There would be an element of surprise if Nevill waited for him to return upstairs & then attacked him.

[Adam]

CAL's version is possible. But puts too much importance on the urgency of shooting the twins.

She says herself 'Nevill lurches out of bed' after 4 shots.

In that case Bamber would prioritise shots 10 & 11 on Nevill. Rather than leave the room to shoot the twins.

[Adam]

CAL also has Bamber making no effort to achieve an 11 shot massacre.

This is plausible as an 11 shot massacre on 5 people with that rifle would be tough.

Better to keep to the main objective.

[Adam]

CAL has Nevill following Bamber downstairs.

Although in her scenario Nevill had the choice of staying upstairs & waiting for Bamber to return after re loading. Which to me is a better option.

The evidence is that there was a kitchen struggle. So he was either chased or chose to go downstairs.

[Adam]

At the end of the day, the choice was Bamber's.

He may have chosen beforehand not to go for an 11 shot massacre.

He would have thought 11 bullets into 1 man, 1 woman & two 6 year olds, was enough to at least be able to re load downstairs.

In the spur of the moment, Nevill may have decided to follow Bamber downstairs. Once downstairs he didn't have the strength to lay a finger on him.

[Adam]

Bamber would have had a fixed plan on his opening 11 shots -shots 10 & 11 being into the twins.

He kept to this plan despite Nevill lurching out of bed.

He would have expected this plan to kill/negate 4 people. None of whom would be able to wake Sheila.

There is a possibility Nevill decided to follow Bamber to the kitchen & got there before the re load was complete. Resulting in the fight.

[Adam]

The twins being shot (once each) with bullets 10 & 11 does explain why they did not wake.

The rifle with silencer being fired at June & Nevill was silent.

[Adam]

At the moment I believe this part of her scenario is plausible.

Nevill was found downstairs. So possible he followed Bamber there.

Just because I would have stayed upstairs, does not mean Nevill made that decision.

[Adam]

CAL's main points are all 'possibles' -

Deciding beforehand not to go for an 11 shot massacre - possible.

Deciding beforehand shots 10 & 11 into the twins - possible.

Deciding to re load downstairs - possible & supported by evidence.

Nevill deciding to follow Bamber into the kitchen - possible & supported by evidence.

[Steve_uk]

Adam, does this really need a thread of its own? Can't you tack it on to this? https://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4405.msg180688/topicseen.html#msg180688