I can’t help but think Putin was aware of some sort, I don’t think Trump would have took such a risk without talking to Putin? That’s why most talk between Russia and USA over Ukraine has been between the two Countries. Iran would and was brought up, maybe some sort of compromise was reached, you keep your land grab in Ukraine and we will deal with Iran’s Nuclear project? Bullies don’t like to confront bullies, they don’t like being hurt
Putin was almost certainly aware, HB. He had warned that 100's of Russians were working at Bushehr Reactor plus a couple of other sites where Russia are building reactors with the Iranians. He stated that they are going nowhere and that striking them would have consequences.
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1936172696553111877 He didn't randomly state this for no reason, obviously, and it seems a reasonable inference that he was informed. We can also reasonably infer that the Iranians also knew because of the evacuation and preparation of the site before the strikes. Roch earlier in the thread raised the notion, floated by some, that Trump is secretly working against Netanyahu. I think Alex Krainer articulated it well, can't remember where but will attempt to find it later. Whatever the truth there are a lot of unanswered questions.
In terms of the deal you mention, HB, a kind of trade off giving Trump and Putin a free hand in Iran and Ukraine respectively. I doubt this for a number of reasons though concede that nothing can be ruled out. It is however difficult to square that particular circle. The first point is that Russia/Putin need no-one's acquiescence to deal with Ukraine. No amount of US assistance can help Ukraine but Ukraine are constantly begging for assistance because without it they collapse rapidly. Also Ukraine are not a sovereign government and Zelensky and co are simply puppets of outside interests.
Iran on the other hand are not requesting military assistance and their government is not a proxy of Russia and is clearly sovereign and capable of defending themselves. Russia have made clear their position and are solidly on the side of Iran. Russia also have their own current large front against Empire and don't need distracting from that.
China also are heavily reliant on Iran as their 25 year 400 billion dollar strategic partnership demonstrates. They have two intelligence gathering ships currently in the Persian Gulf. The verified facts that can be agreed upon by all seem to point more towards the Roch/Krainer view that Netanyahu is being thrown under the bus. The non event "bombing" of Fordow, warned of and prepared for beforehand, lends credence to this view. Iran could easily have shot down the subsonic B2 bombers supposedly carrying massive bunker busters which negates any alleged stealth. They were warned in advance but chose not to even try? Why? Since the "bombing" of Fordow, Iran have increased the tempo of attacks on the occupiers again.
Trump's declaration of having destroyed Iran nuclear capability tends towards this theory also. He has basically said that US have done their bit and are now out unless Iran strikes US. Declaring victory and walking away, as it were. I agree, HB that there are clearly some moves that are, "hidden from view", and that some back-channel negotiations and manoeuvres have taken place. It appears that from what available facts there are, that Iran were party to those shenanigans and Israel are the heel.
