Author Topic: Iranian Strike  (Read 47173 times)

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Offline ngb1066

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #360 on: June 16, 2025, 10:22:PM »
I think most sane people in the world believe the regime change efforts are in the wrong direction.

I agree.


Offline ngb1066

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #361 on: June 16, 2025, 10:32:PM »
     Hopefully, the leadership of the collective West (or their puppeteers, more accurately), understand the position they are in, negotiate from the position of reality and accept a more diminished role in the win/win multi polar world that is being built. The West/Israel have nothing left in the escalation ladder except for the unthinkable nuclear option. For reasons too obvious to state, it isn't an option that is available unless they have a collective death wish. Not that there would be any "winners" but Western countries are the least equipped/prepared for this doomsday scenario and would be least likely to be able to rebuild in a few generations.
      Israel/the West have lost the wider war and that is plain to see, the downside being that they still have the means to upend the board for all. Hopefully (that word again) they take the only rational path although it is unclear if they are rational actors. Rational for the terms of this discussion being a relative term, ngb, as none of Israeli/Western provocations are rational but we can all agree that inviting nuclear armageddon is a much higher step of irrationality than the provocations thus far.
      Working from the assumption that enough rationality exists within the decision making corridors of the collective West to save their own skins, then Israel/the West simply have to climb down, recognise their weak position in any negotiations and accept the diminished role in the now unstoppable new multi polar world order. It is in the interests of Iran/China/Russia to make sure that the countries that make up the Collective West(US/UK/EU/G7/NATO) are not humiliated and negotiations are not used to bludgeon them. That invites the irrational response which is not a win for Iran et al either.
     In the longer term, should the above come to pass, there would undoubtedly be at least a reconstituted UN giving more power to currently unrepresented Global South or a new organisation entirely. The charter of the UN as it stands is agreed by the world majority, but the West trample over this with their unbalanced control of the main mechanism of the UN, and only one with real clout, the Security Council where they hold 3 of only 5 permanent seats, the only seats with veto power. This control that the West (Israel's sponsors) currently have will not be allowed to continue. The international finance and banking system will also be re-ordered via a new "Bretton Woods" style agreement which will, by definition, take away the West's preferred tool of economic warfare. Namely the illegal, under the UN charter, sanctions that they impose at will through their control of world financial systems and then enforce via the "purely a defensive alliance ::) :-[", NATO.
     A comment my father made many years ago has always stuck with me, which is both profound and succinct. "Israel can only lose once".

Yossi Melman @yossi_melman - 5:50 UTC · Jun 15, 2025
"The euphoria was brief. On Friday morning, I asked if it was even necessary to start a war with the Iranians. Shiites are historically willing to suffer. I mentioned their willingness to sacrifice as demonstrated in the 8 years of attrition with Iraq. I recommend that we cut our losses. Ask Trump to stop the scramble for a reasonable agreement. Otherwise, we'll end up begging for a cease-fire and Iran will refuse."
     
     Bolded above is where we are now. Eventually Israel and it's sponsors will b forced to take a negotiated climbdown. This will be the end for them as a dominant power in the region and their future as the "Jewish State". I believe a one state solution is the only way now and doubt that the existence of Israel is for much longer. The collective West, if they step in, would anyway be unable to prevent the inevitable. Israel's position is becoming ever more untenable daily. The negotiated climbdown would be certain to include control and inspection of their undeclared nuclear sites and weapons whether they survive as a state or not. All of this is based on the assumption that just enough rationality exists in the West/Israeli leadership(I know ???) to avoid MAD.
      Perhaps, ngb, it would have been better to direct your question at David and Steve for a more accurate analysis. If they answer, it would be safe to assume that the exact opposite of everything they say would be would be a surefire way of getting to the likely truth. Or even more succinctly, as my Dad said, "Israel can only lose once". When you begin to think through the consequences of Israel losing and what it really represents, it is that the whole collective West loses at the same time.
     How do you see events unfolding?

I find it hard to predict what will happen in the short term.  In the long term overall I agree with your predictions, but I am far from sure what the outcome will be of the present military actions.  I think a lot depends upon internal US politics and also upon the position taken by Russia in particular.  Israel is desperate for direct US involvement and they will undoubtedly try some false flag event, as they have done before. 

 

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #362 on: June 16, 2025, 11:03:PM »
How do you think this will play out now gringo?  It is difficult to get a clear picture of what is going on from MSM.
    To add to the above, ngb, loss of control of Occupied Palestine by definition ends Western dominance of the whole West Asia/Middle East. The impact on western economies and standard of living will be massive. Those who are in real control of Western governments are also fighting to make sure that control remains. Civil unrest is certain to increase as will clampdowns on civil unrest. Once Empire's defeat is finally delivered, their tyranny will by necessity turn inwards. How that goes is anyone's guess.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #363 on: June 16, 2025, 11:13:PM »
     Hopefully, the leadership of the collective West (or their puppeteers, more accurately), understand the position they are in, negotiate from the position of reality and accept a more diminished role in the win/win multi polar world that is being built. The West/Israel have nothing left in the escalation ladder except for the unthinkable nuclear option. For reasons too obvious to state, it isn't an option that is available unless they have a collective death wish. Not that there would be any "winners" but Western countries are the least equipped/prepared for this doomsday scenario and would be least likely to be able to rebuild in a few generations.
      Israel/the West have lost the wider war and that is plain to see, the downside being that they still have the means to upend the board for all. Hopefully (that word again) they take the only rational path although it is unclear if they are rational actors. Rational for the terms of this discussion being a relative term, ngb, as none of Israeli/Western provocations are rational but we can all agree that inviting nuclear armageddon is a much higher step of irrationality than the provocations thus far.
      Working from the assumption that enough rationality exists within the decision making corridors of the collective West to save their own skins, then Israel/the West simply have to climb down, recognise their weak position in any negotiations and accept the diminished role in the now unstoppable new multi polar world order. It is in the interests of Iran/China/Russia to make sure that the countries that make up the Collective West(US/UK/EU/G7/NATO) are not humiliated and negotiations are not used to bludgeon them. That invites the irrational response which is not a win for Iran et al either.
     In the longer term, should the above come to pass, there would undoubtedly be at least a reconstituted UN giving more power to currently unrepresented Global South or a new organisation entirely. The charter of the UN as it stands is agreed by the world majority, but the West trample over this with their unbalanced control of the main mechanism of the UN, and only one with real clout, the Security Council where they hold 3 of only 5 permanent seats, the only seats with veto power. This control that the West (Israel's sponsors) currently have will not be allowed to continue. The international finance and banking system will also be re-ordered via a new "Bretton Woods" style agreement which will, by definition, take away the West's preferred tool of economic warfare. Namely the illegal, under the UN charter, sanctions that they impose at will through their control of world financial systems and then enforce via the "purely a defensive alliance ::) :-[", NATO.
     A comment my father made many years ago has always stuck with me, which is both profound and succinct. "Israel can only lose once".

Yossi Melman @yossi_melman - 5:50 UTC · Jun 15, 2025
"The euphoria was brief. On Friday morning, I asked if it was even necessary to start a war with the Iranians. Shiites are historically willing to suffer. I mentioned their willingness to sacrifice as demonstrated in the 8 years of attrition with Iraq. I recommend that we cut our losses. Ask Trump to stop the scramble for a reasonable agreement. Otherwise, we'll end up begging for a cease-fire and Iran will refuse."
     
     Bolded above is where we are now. Eventually Israel and it's sponsors will be forced to take a negotiated climbdown. This will be the end for them as a dominant power in the region and their future as the "Jewish State". I believe a one state solution is the only way now and doubt that the existence of Israel is for much longer. The collective West, if they step in, would anyway be unable to prevent the inevitable. Israel's position is becoming ever more untenable daily. The negotiated climbdown would be certain to include control and inspection of their undeclared nuclear sites and weapons whether they survive as a state or not. All of this is based on the assumption that just enough rationality exists in the West/Israeli leadership(I know ???) to avoid MAD.
      Perhaps, ngb, it would have been better to direct your question at David and Steve for a more accurate analysis. If they answer, it would be safe to assume that the exact opposite of everything they say would be a surefire way of getting to the likely truth. Or even more succinctly, as my Dad said, "Israel can only lose once". When you begin to think through the consequences of Israel losing and what it really represents, it is that the whole collective West loses at the same time.
     How do you see events unfolding?
It's "ivory tower nonsense", according to Israeli diplomat Shlomo Ben-Ami. Other historians have cited the Arab unwillingness to accept a Jewish presence in the Middle East.

One only has to look at how Hamas controlled Gaza following the withdrawal of the Israeli military in 2005. Digging tunnels from which to plan the eradication of the Jewish state, shooting Fatah prisoners in the knees and throwing them off buildings, then there were the "honour" killings of women: all totally incompatible with Western values.

But then, you and ngb1066 despise everything about the West, ignoring the closed Islamic societies out of which nothing productive has come for the last 500 years.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2025, 11:13:PM by Steve_uk »

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #364 on: June 16, 2025, 11:17:PM »
    To add to the above, ngb, loss of control of Occupied Palestine by definition ends Western dominance of the whole West Asia/Middle East. The impact on western economies and standard of living will be massive. Those who are in real control of Western governments are also fighting to make sure that control remains. Civil unrest is certain to increase as will clampdowns on civil unrest. Once Empire's defeat is finally delivered, their tyranny will by necessity turn inwards. How that goes is anyone's guess.
You're living in cloud cuckoo land. I suspect Israel will annexe Judea and Samaria and incorporate it legally into the Jewish state. https://www.jns.org/yesha-council-only-judea-and-samaria-sovereignty-will-stop-next-massacre/

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #365 on: June 16, 2025, 11:27:PM »
It's "ivory tower nonsense", according to Israeli diplomat Shlomo Ben-Ami. Other historians have cited the Arab unwillingness to accept a Jewish presence in the Middle East.

One only has to look at how Hamas controlled Gaza following the withdrawal of the Israeli military in 2005. Digging tunnels from which to plan the eradication of the Jewish state, shooting Fatah prisoners in the knees and throwing them off buildings, then there were the "honour" killings of women: all totally incompatible with Western values.

But then, you and ngb1066 despise everything about the West, ignoring the closed Islamic societies out of which nothing productive has come for the last 500 years.
In fact, come to think of it, why don't you both join the next intifada? I'm sure you will be welcomed with open arms by your Muslim friends.

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #366 on: June 16, 2025, 11:30:PM »
I find it hard to predict what will happen in the short term.  In the long term overall I agree with your predictions, but I am far from sure what the outcome will be of the present military actions.  I think a lot depends upon internal US politics and also upon the position taken by Russia in particular.  Israel is desperate for direct US involvement and they will undoubtedly try some false flag event, as they have done before.
    China have come out solidly in support of Iran. I confidently expect Russia to stand firm with Iran also, ngb. As a guide to how current hostilities are playing out, it seems of note that reporting from Israel is under strict military censorship but not in Iran. There is no need of this if they are winning and Iran's missiles really are "indiscriminate" as Israel claim. Reporters would be able to see that Iranians were hitting "purely random civilian targets" and not Military and Intelligence Bases or Airbases. Despite this there are an awful lot of strategic military targets on fire in Israel all over x and especially Telegram channels. Iran openly report targets that Israel have hit.
       I agree that in the short term it is difficult to predict with any confidence how the defeat of Israel/the West plays out but it is difficult to see any way for the West/Israel to change the trajectory.

 https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/16/749942/Losses-inflicted-Israelis-far-exceed-their-expectations-IRGC--commander

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #367 on: June 16, 2025, 11:38:PM »
They are trying to spur a revolt against the Ayatollah. Hence its called operation rising lion as depicted in the historic Persian flag.
     Do you remember Juan Guiado the so called "internationally recognised" President of Venezuala from a few years ago, David? "Internationally recognised" being a euphemism for "whichever handful of vassal states the US had coerced into agreeing with them". Anyway, I suspect that this regime change operation will be even more farcical than that.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #368 on: June 16, 2025, 11:46:PM »
    China have come out solidly in support of Iran. I confidently expect Russia to stand firm with Iran also, ngb. As a guide to how current hostilities are playing out, it seems of note that reporting from Israel is under strict military censorship but not in Iran. There is no need of this if they are winning and Iran's missiles really are "indiscriminate" as Israel claim. Reporters would be able to see that Iranians were hitting "purely random civilian targets" and not Military and Intelligence Bases or Airbases. Despite this there are an awful lot of strategic military targets on fire in Israel all over x and especially Telegram channels. Iran openly report targets that Israel have hit.
       I agree that in the short term it is difficult to predict with any confidence how the defeat of Israel/the West plays out but it is difficult to see any way for the West/Israel to change the trajectory.

 https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/16/749942/Losses-inflicted-Israelis-far-exceed-their-expectations-IRGC--commander
Henry Bodkin is reporting for the Telegraph. I don't see any Western journalists in Tehran.

In the interests of fairness I post a clip from which you may gain succour. https://youtu.be/T1ID3bNgrrM
« Last Edit: June 16, 2025, 11:46:PM by Steve_uk »

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #369 on: June 16, 2025, 11:55:PM »
I find it hard to predict what will happen in the short term.  In the long term overall I agree with your predictions, but I am far from sure what the outcome will be of the present military actions.  I think a lot depends upon internal US politics and also upon the position taken by Russia in particular. Israel is desperate for direct US involvement and they will undoubtedly try some false flag event, as they have done before.
    I am expecting this too, ngb. The soon to be decommissioned and oldest active Aircraft Carrier in the world, USS Nimitz, is currently sailing towards towards the Middle East and seems a juicy sacrificial lamb/target for a false flag attack. USS Liberty, the sequel

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-aircraft-carrier-heads-west-schina-sea-amid-middle-east-tensions-2025-06-16/

Offline gringo

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #370 on: June 17, 2025, 02:06:AM »
   Perhaps no false flag required this time

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1934745869821370570

"Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" –President Donald J. Trump

   

Offline Roch

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #371 on: June 17, 2025, 08:12:AM »
   Perhaps no false flag required this time

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1934745869821370570

"Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" –President Donald J. Trump

   

A significant number of US military refuelling planes crossed the Atlantic yesterday.

Offline ngb1066

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #372 on: June 17, 2025, 08:40:AM »
    China have come out solidly in support of Iran. I confidently expect Russia to stand firm with Iran also, ngb. As a guide to how current hostilities are playing out, it seems of note that reporting from Israel is under strict military censorship but not in Iran. There is no need of this if they are winning and Iran's missiles really are "indiscriminate" as Israel claim. Reporters would be able to see that Iranians were hitting "purely random civilian targets" and not Military and Intelligence Bases or Airbases. Despite this there are an awful lot of strategic military targets on fire in Israel all over x and especially Telegram channels. Iran openly report targets that Israel have hit.
       I agree that in the short term it is difficult to predict with any confidence how the defeat of Israel/the West plays out but it is difficult to see any way for the West/Israel to change the trajectory.

 https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/16/749942/Losses-inflicted-Israelis-far-exceed-their-expectations-IRGC--commander

I am afraid I am more pessimistic than you gringo.  As you have noted the US are now clearly planning direct and massive intervention.  They would of course suffer big losses if they tried to conquer Iran as they did Iraq, but they could still smash Iran in my view unless other countries come to its support.  Although some support has been expressed by Russia, China and Pakistan I doubt if any are going to provide military assistance.  The Arab countries are frankly pathetic on this, Jordan in particular.  They are not going to give any support and virtually give a free hand to the USA.  Meanwhile the genocide in Gaza and moves to annex the West Bank continue, with limited media coverage.  I think Russia is much more concerned with Ukraine.  Putin wants the US to stand away from Europe and enable Russia to achieve its aims and is prepared to appease Trump over Israel in order to do that.  We have to remember that Russia is not the USSR.  If the USSR still existed the situation would be totally different.  There is also no way that China will get directly involved.

I think the situation is very grim, much to the satisfaction of characters like Steve.  However, I believe he will not be so happy in the longer term.   

« Last Edit: June 17, 2025, 10:11:AM by ngb1066 »

Offline ngb1066

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #373 on: June 17, 2025, 08:41:AM »
In fact, come to think of it, why don't you both join the next intifada? I'm sure you will be welcomed with open arms by your Muslim friends.

You are an idiot, totally blinded by your worship of Zionism and the American world view.  You are incapable of rational argument.


Offline ngb1066

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Re: Iranian Strike
« Reply #374 on: June 17, 2025, 08:46:AM »
You're living in cloud cuckoo land. I suspect Israel will annexe Judea and Samaria and incorporate it legally into the Jewish state. https://www.jns.org/yesha-council-only-judea-and-samaria-sovereignty-will-stop-next-massacre/

Just like the Nazis annexing Czechoslovakia and Poland to create a "greater Germany" for the master race with the "untermenschen" either displaced, murdered or subjugated.

« Last Edit: June 17, 2025, 12:39:PM by ngb1066 »