The odds of dying by falling off a ladder

[Alias]

I have had at least two close calls from that list. I got struck by a lightning when I was thirteen, walking over a school-yard with an umbrella in a thunderstorm (stupid girl!) And I was almost hit in the head by a falling coconut at a beach restaurant in Brazil. It brushed my hair on the right side - REALLY close!
Sorry to go a bit off topic, but freak accidents do happen. The timing of Taff Jones´ death raises some suspicion though.

[tyler]

Who is Taff Evans?   

[shonapugs]

I should have added that I think the papers said he was painting the gable end, ie outside - if that was reported accurately of course. Depends where the press got their info from. Re the figures above, I suppose we should take into account the popularity of DIY in different countries and general house maintenance trends in those countries; how many of those people were professionals or DIYers

Very true sarann. We don't know how fit he was or what his general health was either. Though we know he was a golfer, do golfer's tend to be fitter than average? Of course, Taff could have been stressed by having been moved off of the Bamber case. Was he on garden leave?

BT's a golfer. Does that give you a bit of a clue?!

[chochokeira]

I should have added that I think the papers said he was painting the gable end, ie outside - if that was reported accurately of course. Depends where the press got their info from. Re the figures above, I suppose we should take into account the popularity of DIY in different countries and general house maintenance trends in those countries; how many of those people were professionals or DIYers

Very true sarann. We don't know how fit he was or what his general health was either. Though we know he was a golfer, do golfer's tend to be fitter than average? Of course, Taff could have been stressed by having been moved off of the Bamber case. Was he on garden leave?

BT's a golfer. Does that give you a bit of a clue?!

Hehehehehe 

[Enigma]

I should have added that I think the papers said he was painting the gable end, ie outside - if that was reported accurately of course. Depends where the press got their info from. Re the figures above, I suppose we should take into account the popularity of DIY in different countries and general house maintenance trends in those countries; how many of those people were professionals or DIYers

Very true sarann. We don't know how fit he was or what his general health was either. Though we know he was a golfer, do golfer's tend to be fitter than average? Of course, Taff could have been stressed by having been moved off of the Bamber case. Was he on garden leave?

BT's a golfer. Does that give you a bit of a clue?!

Who's BT Shona The Brave?

[Jackiepreece]

Sarann
With comments like that you need to come to the wide awake club  :D :D :D

[Jackiepreece]

Shona
BT is going to be famous soon when we publish your blog

Does he ever walk about naked

[grahameb]

Is anyone actually suggesting foul play here.

I have often wondered why the accident as so close to the trial. It's almost as if the starts in their courses set themselves against Jeremy Bamber?

[bob]

The chances of Taff Jones meeting his Maker by falling off a ladder were so tiny because so few deaths happen that way. See the following statistics from a Daily Mirror article:

300,000,000/1 SHARK ATTACK (c 40 deaths per year)

300,000,000/1 FAIRGROUND ACCIDENT

250,000,000/1 FALLING COCONUT (c 150 deaths per year)

11,000,000/1 PLANE CRASH  (c 1,300 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY LIGHTNING (c 5 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY THE ESCAPE OF RADIATION

9,300,000/1 DYING IN TERRORIST ATTACK

5,000,000/1 SCALDED BY HOT TAP WATER. (c 126 deaths per year)

4,400,000/1 LEFT-HANDED PEOPLE USING A RIGHT-HANDED PRODUCT

3,500,000/1 SNAKE BITES (c 25,000 deaths per year)

3,000,000/1 FOOD POISONING (c 200 deaths per year)

2,300,000/1 DYING FROM FALLING OFF A LADDER (c 15 deaths per year)

1,200 suffer serious injuries. A quarter of all falls happen off ladders.

2,000,000/1 DYING AFTER FALLING OUT OF BED (c 20 deaths)

685,000/1 DROWNING IN THE BATH (25 deaths per year)

500,000/1 BEING KILLED IN A TRAIN CRASH (c 13 deths per year)

43,500/1 BEING KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT AT WORK (c 300 deaths)

8,000/1 KILLED IN A ROAD ACCIDENT (c 1,500 per year)

5/1 DYING FROM CANCER ( c 130,000 deaths per year)

2.5/1 DYING FROM HEART ATTACK OR STROKE (c200,000 deaths per year)

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-world/2008/05/30/scientists-calculate-odd-ways-to-die-115875-17495916/

You need to be very careful when trying to use statistics like this - they simply don't apply as quoted here.

The reality is that the chance of Taff Jones falling from a ladder and killing himself are much much higher than quoted here.

The reason is that these stats are the chances of any member of the UK population dying from a ladder fall in their lifetime. Now consider the following:

i) the vast majority of UK citizens never climb a ladder, and of those that do, only a fraction would ever climb to a height that would present a genuine risk of death.

ii) of those that do, a large fraction are "professionals" who know how to climb ladders as part of their job, and even though they do it more often, they are far less likely to fall.

Taff Jones was (i) a ladder climber who felt comfortable climbing to a death-risking height, and (ii) an amateur - he was therefore in a much higher risk group than the majority of the British population.

Ergo, his odds of dying from a ladder fall were nowhere near as unlikely as has been quoted above.

(it's like quoting the chances of any UK citizen dying of testicular cancer, and then applying that to a woman - it's meaningless unless you include more specific information on the risk group the person comes from)

[andrea]

well itd be some woman if she died of bollock cancer.


evening bob  :D

[shonapugs]

Brilliant, Andy!!

And hallo again, Bob. It's been a while.

[chochokeira]

The chances of Taff Jones meeting his Maker by falling off a ladder were so tiny because so few deaths happen that way. See the following statistics from a Daily Mirror article:

300,000,000/1 SHARK ATTACK (c 40 deaths per year)

300,000,000/1 FAIRGROUND ACCIDENT

250,000,000/1 FALLING COCONUT (c 150 deaths per year)

11,000,000/1 PLANE CRASH  (c 1,300 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY LIGHTNING (c 5 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY THE ESCAPE OF RADIATION

9,300,000/1 DYING IN TERRORIST ATTACK

5,000,000/1 SCALDED BY HOT TAP WATER. (c 126 deaths per year)

4,400,000/1 LEFT-HANDED PEOPLE USING A RIGHT-HANDED PRODUCT

3,500,000/1 SNAKE BITES (c 25,000 deaths per year)

3,000,000/1 FOOD POISONING (c 200 deaths per year)

2,300,000/1 DYING FROM FALLING OFF A LADDER (c 15 deaths per year)

1,200 suffer serious injuries. A quarter of all falls happen off ladders.

2,000,000/1 DYING AFTER FALLING OUT OF BED (c 20 deaths)

685,000/1 DROWNING IN THE BATH (25 deaths per year)

500,000/1 BEING KILLED IN A TRAIN CRASH (c 13 deaths per year)

43,500/1 BEING KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT AT WORK (c 300 deaths)

8,000/1 KILLED IN A ROAD ACCIDENT (c 1,500 per year)

5/1 DYING FROM CANCER ( c 130,000 deaths per year)

2.5/1 DYING FROM HEART ATTACK OR STROKE (c200,000 deaths per year)

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-world/2008/05/30/scientists-calculate-odd-ways-to-die-115875-17495916/

You need to be very careful when trying to use statistics like this - they simply don't apply as quoted here.

The reality is that the chance of Taff Jones falling from a ladder and killing himself are much much higher than quoted here.

The reason is that these stats are the chances of any member of the UK population dying from a ladder fall in their lifetime. Now consider the following:

i) the vast majority of UK citizens never climb a ladder, and of those that do, only a fraction would ever climb to a height that would present a genuine risk of death.ii)

 of those that do, a large fraction are "professionals" who know how to climb ladders as part of their job, and even though they do it more often, they are far less likely to fall.

Taff Jones was (i) a ladder climber who felt comfortable climbing to a death-risking height, and (ii) an amateur - he was therefore in a much higher risk group than the majority of the British population.

Ergo, his odds of dying from a ladder fall were nowhere near as unlikely as has been quoted above.

(it's like quoting the chances of any UK citizen dying of testicular cancer, and then applying that to a woman - it's meaningless unless you include more specific information on the risk group the person comes from)

Thank you for your response regarding this, Bob, but what you'd stated in not actually correct.

1.  Employees have died falling 6' from ladders

2.  In 2009/2010, falls from ladders at work "resulted in 16 deaths"

I'm in my office at present, so don't have time to search for the figure for total (industrial and domestic) deaths resulting from falls from ladders for that year, however, a quick look at a number of years suggests that total deaths tend to be less than 20 per in any one year - which suggests that the overwhelming majority of deaths are industrial, not domestic.

Those 16 industrial deaths in 2009-10 would have been the overwhelming majority of deaths for that year.

3.  Taff Jones' death was therefore one of a very small number of deaths resulting from falls from ladders, the number is even smaller when the tiny percentage of domestic deaths involving ladders are taken into account.

You are right to point out that there are complex issues involved, however, key issues appear to be whether the ladders were properly maintained, whether the person who falls hits their head, how hard and fast they fall and what they land on or in rather than expertise with ladders, odd as it may seem. Thousands of people survive falls from ladders every year.

[chochokeira]

I forgot to include the following link, Bob:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com:80/search?q=cache:eAsg2nEOWCkJ:www.aimclaims.co.uk/ladder-accidents/+UK+deaths+falls+from+ladders+2010&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&source=www.google.co.uk

[bob]

The chances of Taff Jones meeting his Maker by falling off a ladder were so tiny because so few deaths happen that way. See the following statistics from a Daily Mirror article:

300,000,000/1 SHARK ATTACK (c 40 deaths per year)

300,000,000/1 FAIRGROUND ACCIDENT

250,000,000/1 FALLING COCONUT (c 150 deaths per year)

11,000,000/1 PLANE CRASH  (c 1,300 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY LIGHTNING (c 5 deaths per year)

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY THE ESCAPE OF RADIATION

9,300,000/1 DYING IN TERRORIST ATTACK

5,000,000/1 SCALDED BY HOT TAP WATER. (c 126 deaths per year)

4,400,000/1 LEFT-HANDED PEOPLE USING A RIGHT-HANDED PRODUCT

3,500,000/1 SNAKE BITES (c 25,000 deaths per year)

3,000,000/1 FOOD POISONING (c 200 deaths per year)

2,300,000/1 DYING FROM FALLING OFF A LADDER (c 15 deaths per year)

1,200 suffer serious injuries. A quarter of all falls happen off ladders.

2,000,000/1 DYING AFTER FALLING OUT OF BED (c 20 deaths)

685,000/1 DROWNING IN THE BATH (25 deaths per year)

500,000/1 BEING KILLED IN A TRAIN CRASH (c 13 deaths per year)

43,500/1 BEING KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT AT WORK (c 300 deaths)

8,000/1 KILLED IN A ROAD ACCIDENT (c 1,500 per year)

5/1 DYING FROM CANCER ( c 130,000 deaths per year)

2.5/1 DYING FROM HEART ATTACK OR STROKE (c200,000 deaths per year)

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-world/2008/05/30/scientists-calculate-odd-ways-to-die-115875-17495916/

You need to be very careful when trying to use statistics like this - they simply don't apply as quoted here.

The reality is that the chance of Taff Jones falling from a ladder and killing himself are much much higher than quoted here.

The reason is that these stats are the chances of any member of the UK population dying from a ladder fall in their lifetime. Now consider the following:

i) the vast majority of UK citizens never climb a ladder, and of those that do, only a fraction would ever climb to a height that would present a genuine risk of death.ii)

 of those that do, a large fraction are "professionals" who know how to climb ladders as part of their job, and even though they do it more often, they are far less likely to fall.

Taff Jones was (i) a ladder climber who felt comfortable climbing to a death-risking height, and (ii) an amateur - he was therefore in a much higher risk group than the majority of the British population.

Ergo, his odds of dying from a ladder fall were nowhere near as unlikely as has been quoted above.

(it's like quoting the chances of any UK citizen dying of testicular cancer, and then applying that to a woman - it's meaningless unless you include more specific information on the risk group the person comes from)

Thank you for your response regarding this, Bob, but what you'd stated in not actually correct.

1.  Employees have died falling 6' from ladders

2.  In 2009/2010, falls from ladders at work "resulted in 16 deaths"

I'm in my office at present, so don't have time to search for the figure for total (industrial and domestic) deaths resulting from falls from ladders for that year, however, a quick look at a number of years suggests that total deaths tend to be less than 20 per in any one year - which suggests that the overwhelming majority of deaths are industrial, not domestic.

Those 16 industrial deaths in 2009-10 would have been the overwhelming majority of deaths for that year.

3.  Taff Jones' death was therefore one of a very small number of deaths resulting from falls from ladders, the number is even smaller when the tiny percentage of domestic deaths involving ladders are taken into account.

You are right to point out that there are complex issues involved, however, key issues appear to be whether the ladders were properly maintained, whether the person who falls hits their head, how hard and fast they fall and what they land on or in rather than expertise with ladders, odd as it may seem. Thousands of people survive falls from ladders every year.

Keira - I am not convinced you are correct in saying I am incorrect.

Your link to the ambulance-chasers' website appears to relate only to deaths in the workplace.

I am finding it difficult to get UK-based information regarding deaths from non-workplace-related ladder falls (i.e. DIYers etc) - if you have any I would be interested to see them.

I did find this detailed study from Australia though. I doubt our pattern of ladder use exactly matches theirs but it can't be a million miles away (in fact there will be proportionally a lot more multi-story properties in the UK than Australia so our stats could well be worse than theirs).

http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/186_01_010107/mit10419_fm.html

The relevant part for this discussion is:

Activity at time of injury   Presentations    Major Trauma
Working for income               851  (18.7%)        33 (20.6%)
Unpaid work                      657  (14.4%)        77 (48.1%)
Other                            3045 (66.9%)        50 (31.3%)

IMHO - this strongly suggests that non-professional use of ladders is by far the most significant contributor of ladder accidents.

[jon]

Can anyone put a picture up of the gable end he fell from ?