the most likely scenario as i see it

[sherlock]

As you all know i am working on many theories ...

But on the balance of probabilities these are the most likely facts ...

Sheila did not do it -it is possible but not so likely - lack of forensics ...

Jeremy did not do it himself - zero evidence to suggest he did - not even Julie claimed this - no previous incidents of violence - no marks etc on him - bike ride unlikely ...

WPC Jeaves was not mistaken about the rifle in the window - unlikely she was mistaken ...

Therefore most likely a third party was in the property when Jeremy was outside ...

More likely there were 2 shooters than 1 - how was Neville at 6 foot 4 and a physically fit farmer overcome and battered - more likely by 2 than 1 ...

More likely Neville was forced to phone Jeremy - the 3 burn marks - he waited 2 or 3 minutes for Jeremy to answer the phone and then only had time for a very few words ...

More likely that David Boutflour and at least one other set Jeremy up with the silencer - he made a slip of the tongue in a video which tells me this is more likely than not ...

Because of all of the above it is more likely than not the Julies "confession" was false ...

More likely than not that whoever the 2 shooters were they were also conneced with the set up of the silencer and forcing Julie to make her false confession ...

More likely than not that Essex Police were not involved in fitting Jeremy up - based on the statistics of how often they do and do not do this in criminal cases ...

Of course some or all of the above could well be wrong ...

But these are the most likely facts in my opinion after studying this case at length ...

One more thing - it is more likely than not that Adanm is going to dispute this with a very long list - more likely than not that Stephanie is going to attemp to sarcasticly rubbish this post whilst accusing me of being Mike - more likely than not that Caroline is going to back her up albeit in a slightly more intelligent way - and more likely than not that Maggie is going to be kept busy moderating this thread should it develop ...

I hope it is also more likely than not that one or two of you may find it interesting ... 

[Adam]

Thanks Sherlock.

Was the third party a hit man then ?

If it wasn't a hit man,  was it just a psychopath who was in a remote area at 2pm. Who decided to massacre everyone. Why did the psychopath get Neville to ring Bamber ? Or did Neville decide to ring him himself and implicate Sheila while the third party was choosing his weapon.

Is this third party the hunched man leaving WHF ? It's a pity the police didn't stop him. Or did they not notice him leaving.

[sherlock]

Thanks Sherlock.

Was the third party a hit man then ?

If it wasn't a hit man,  was it just a psychopath who was in a remote area at 2pm. Who decided to massacre everyone. Why did the psychopath get Neville to ring Bamber ? Or did Neville decide to ring him himself and implicate Sheila while the third party was choosing his weapon.

Is this third party the hunched man leaving WHF ? It's a pity the police didn't stop him. Or did they not notice him leaving.

the possible "facts" listed above do not cover who the murderer might have been ,,,
and the list does not make a complete theory ...
it's just a list of facts to debate - and there is already a lot of points to debate without taking it off topic ...

So i will go no comment on who it might have been at this stage ...

But feel free to say you opinion on any of the possibilities listed above please ...

[sherlock]

Is this third party the hunched man leaving WHF ? It's a pity the police didn't stop him. Or did they not notice him leaving.

more likely than not because :


The Police told the nations most senior journalists at a major Press conference in september 1985 that there had been a report of a hunched up man being seen leaving the area - he was seen and not stopped - this is what the Police told the Press - and this is where the hunched up man theory originated ...


(This is just one example of how this list of facts are not contradicted  by any of the possible evidence in this case ...)

[mike tesko]

One thing which is 100% certain is that Jeremy Bamber was not present inside the farmhouse when any members of his family got shot, or killed...

He did not shoot his father or his mother, and he did not shoot or kill the two children...

The cops know with 100% accuracy that Sheila, had an accomplice to help her to overpower, subdue, manipulate, shoot and kill the others. The hunched man seen leaving the grounds of whf at just before 5am walked off in the general direction of Prentice farm. He was spotted by PC Myall, the facts detailing this are basically recorded in a police document which was entitled, ' MAJOR INCIDENT PROJECT', and reference to the identity of this 'unknown male person' is the first entry, numbered 001 in that document. We know that this man was seen by PC Myall and quite possibly by PS Bews, originally upon arrival at the scene before Jeremy's astra arrived in pages lane with Jeremy inside it. That police saw this hunched man walking into the driveway of the farmhouse from the location where pages lane and the farm entrance commences. As the cops pulled up opposite the farm cottages in their patrol car, the cops got a very brief glimpse of the hunched man retreating into the driveway of the farmhouse. Minutes later, after Jeremy turned up in his car, and Myall, Bews and Jeremy went into the grounds of the farmhouse, Myall was convinced that figure seen at the upstairs window was the same hunched man they had seen outside some 15 minutes or so earlier. This fact caucaused Myall, Bews and Jeremy, to hurry back to the patrol car (CA07) that was parked up in pages lane, where PS Bews then passed a 'situation report' to the control room making mention of the aforementioned sightings, adding a request for the firearm team to be deployed because of the possibility that the incident could by now have escalated into a siege situation. Once this was done, Bews and Myall returned to the grounds of the farmhouse, leaving Jeremy at the patrol car parked in Pages lane in the company of PS Saxby. Between then, and the arrival of PS Adams and his firearm crew arrived (5am), the only other thing worthy of note, what was seen and reported on, was the fact that Myall saw the hunched man walking out of the grounds of the farmhouse in the general direction of Prentice Farm...

This is all true...

At one stage or other during the later investigation into these shootings, cops have tried relentlessly to identify the hunched man, so that he can be eliminated from police enquiries, or provide them with information about what might have happened, or gone wrong inside the farmhouse before police arrived? At one time, or another, cops suspected the hunched man might have been, Freddie Emani, Mathew McDonald, and one of two local farmers, cops knew had been in dispute with Ralph Neville Bamber in the not too distant past. Additionally, cops turned their attention to a list of Campers who had been renting a field nearby at the time of the shootings...

[mike tesko]

One thing which is 100% certain is that Jeremy Bamber was not present inside the farmhouse when any members of his family got shot, or killed...

He did not shoot his father or his mother, and he did not shoot or kill the two children...

The cops know with 100% accuracy that Sheila, had an accomplice to help her to overpower, subdue, manipulate, shoot and kill the others. The hunched man seen leaving the grounds of whf at just before 5am walked off in the general direction of Prentice farm. He was spotted by PC Myall, the facts detailing this are basically recorded in a police document which was entitled, ' MAJOR INCIDENT PROJECT', and reference to the identity of this 'unknown male person' is the first entry, numbered 001 in that document. We know that this man was seen by PC Myall and quite possibly by PS Bews, originally upon arrival at the scene before Jeremy's astra arrived in pages lane with Jeremy inside it. That police saw this hunched man walking into the driveway of the farmhouse from the location where pages lane and the farm entrance commences. As the cops pulled up opposite the farm cottages in their patrol car, the cops got a very brief glimpse of the hunched man retreating into the driveway of the farmhouse. Minutes later, after Jeremy turned up in his car, and Myall, Bews and Jeremy went into the grounds of the farmhouse, Myall was convinced that figure seen at the upstairs window was the same hunched man they had seen outside some 15 minutes or so earlier. This fact caucaused Myall, Bews and Jeremy, to hurry back to the patrol car (CA07) that was parked up in pages lane, where PS Bews then passed a 'situation report' to the control room making mention of the aforementioned sightings, adding a request for the firearm team to be deployed because of the possibility that the incident could by now have escalated into a siege situation. Once this was done, Bews and Myall returned to the grounds of the farmhouse, leaving Jeremy at the patrol car parked in Pages lane in the company of PS Saxby. Between then, and the arrival of PS Adams and his firearm crew arrived (5am), the only other thing worthy of note, what was seen and reported on, was the fact that Myall saw the hunched man walking out of the grounds of the farmhouse in the general direction of Prentice Farm...

This is all true...

At one stage or other during the later investigation into these shootings, cops have tried relentlessly to identify the hunched man, so that he can be eliminated from police enquiries, or provide them with information about what might have happened, or gone wrong inside the farmhouse before police arrived? At one time, or another, cops suspected the hunched man might have been, Freddie Emani, Mathew McDonald, and one of two local farmers, cops knew had been in dispute with Ralph Neville Bamber in the not too distant past. Additionally, cops turned their attention to a list of Campers who had been renting a field nearby at the time of the shootings...

The mystery was added too, by two further incidents worthy of note, the first being the discovery of a makeshift den hidden in undergrowth in a nearby copse of woodland, and the second, was the handing over to police of two guns by a neighbouring farmer (I beleive the farmers name, was BUNTING) of the Bambers. The neighbour who handed over these weapons refused to identify the 'two men' who had given them to him. But added that both of the guns might be related to the shooting incident at the farmhouse...

[mike tesko]

A further matter, worthy of some consideration, is that in one of her witness statements that she made to cops, Ann Eaton let slip that it was a well known fact to 'all the relatives' that a spare key to the door of the farmhouse was always kept in a shed, at the scene...

[mike tesko]

The mystery was added too, by two further incidents worthy of note, the first being the discovery of a makeshift den hidden in undergrowth in a nearby copse of woodland, and the second, was the handing over to police of two guns by a neighbouring farmer (I beleive the farmers name, was BUNTING) of the Bambers. The neighbour who handed over these weapons refused to identify the 'two men' who had given them to him. But added that both of the guns might be related to the shooting incident at the farmhouse...

Upon speaking to Jeremy several years ago, regarding these two guns, that Bunting handed over to cops, he suggested that these may have belonged to his father at some stage, or that they belonged to one or other of his relatives, but which obstencibly had been kept at the farmhouse, in the same way Anthony Pargeter kept his rifle and shotguns there...

[mike tesko]

I remember seeing somewhere some information about the features of the burn marks on the back of Ralph Neville Bambers neck, and Jeremy and me discussing what had been the cause of those injuries?

[mike tesko]

I remember seeing somewhere some information about the features of the burn marks on the back of Ralph Neville Bambers neck, and Jeremy and me discussing what had been the cause of those injuries?

I was satisfied at 'that' stage that one of these three marks had been caused by the muzzle of the anshuzt rifle barrel, with its end cap fitted (not the parker hale silencer). But the other two marks puzzled me, and Jeremy...

[mike tesko]

Since then, I have come to the conclusion that these other two marks in the equation, were made by the muzzle of a completely different type of weapon. The weapon in question was not found at the scene, or recovered from the scene, it was one of the two weapons handed into cops much later by Bunting - I believe the make of the weapon in question was manufactured by 'SAVAGE'. It was a combination weapon, .22 caliber, over a .410 shotgun...

[mike tesko]

Since then, I have come to the conclusion that these other two marks in the equation, were made by the muzzle of a completely different type of weapon. The weapon in question was not found at the scene, or recovered from the scene, it was one of the two weapons handed into cops much later by Bunting - I believe the make of the weapon in question was manufactured by 'SAVAGE'. It was a combination weapon, .22 caliber, over a .410 shotgun...

The circumference and diameter of one of the marks found on the back of Mr Bamber seniors neck corresponds with the design of the top and bottom measurements of the barrels of a Savage type weapon...

[mike tesko]

The marks from the end of this combination of barrels made two out of the three marks on the back of Ralph Neville Bambers  neck...

The diameter of the upper barrels outer circumference, and the diameter of the upper barrels nner circumference, are duplicated exactly upon the back of Mr Bamber seniors neck. The diameter of the lower barrel is also duplicated alongside the former. The muzzle end circumferences of both of these barrels are completely different when compared to one another. The presence of both upon Ralph Bambers  neck is a compelling reason for suggesting that the killer, or killers left the scene of the murders in possession of such a distinctive gun. The 'Savag' weapon handed to cops by Bunting, is probably the very same weapon that made the marks on the back of Ralph Banners neck. If true, then Bunting was either one of the killers, he is the killer, or he knows the true identity of the two killers he refused to name to cops... This provides confirmation that an additional weapon was used in the shootings, killings, and that one of the killers took the gun away with them from the scene

[John]

A further matter, worthy of some consideration, is that in one of her witness statements that she made to cops, Ann Eaton let slip that it was a well known fact to 'all the relatives' that a spare key to the door of the farmhouse was always kept in a shed, at the scene...

Irrelevant since the farmhouse was barred from the inside.  Only Jeremy Bamber knew how to gain entry without being detected.  You will never be able to overcome that fact and the fact that Shiela died with virtually a hair out of place.

[mike tesko]

Irrelevant since the farmhouse was barred from the inside.  Only Jeremy Bamber knew how to gain entry without being detected.  You will never be able to overcome that fact and the fact that Shiela died with virtually a hair out of place.

No, you are wrong again, firstly because Ann Eaton told cops that it was a well known fact to all the family that a spare key to the farmhouse door was always kept in the shed, and secondly it was the relatives themselves who first suggested that the killer had entered and exited the farmhouse via the window route. And in any event, Jeremy has never been linked with the 'Savage' combination weapon that made the marks on the back of Ralph Bambers  neck. But, the relatives (Boutflors and Eatons) were close friends of Bunting who handed the gun in question over to cops...