Russia - worrying?

[gringo]

Let's cut to the chase gringo: what will the settlement or the outcome of this war be?

    A much more comprehensive answer to your question addressed on MOA today, Steve. Link below-it is well worth a read and deals directly with your question and much more;

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/us-admits-defeat-in-war-on-russia-and-china.html#more

[Steve_uk]

    The security proposals put forward by Russia in December 2021 will, in my opinion, be the basis of any negotiated settlement. There is no doubt that Russia will achieve their goals in Ukraine and there never has been. Either militarily or via negotiation, the end result will be the removal of any NATO missiles from Russian borders. This includes Romania, Poland et al. The proposals are outlined below but were ignored by the US/NATO/EU who were all given the proposals and invited to respond. Their response was exactly as expected. They ignored and derided Russia for having the temerity to demand to speak as equals .

https://tass.com/politics/1421141

    NATO belligerence via their proxy Ukraine means that the terms being offered will get worse each time. Where previously Russia would have settled for referenda and self determination in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea-that ship has sailed.
    The speeches and pronouncements by Putin and other official Russian spokespersons have made clear that increasing belligerence by NATO are only leading to expanded Russian goals.
    I expect that Odessa, Nikolaev, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia along with Kherson, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk will all have referendums and separate from Ukraine.
    The old scores to be settled in the west of Ukraine are a different kettle of fish. The Poles, Hungary, Romania-all may take previously Polish, Hungarian etc. land. There is much bad blood still simmering from WW2 and atrocities committed by the Ukrainian Nazis particularly in those areas(Galicia, Lvov). Ukraine will be, at best, a rump state with no coastal access and probably will cease to exist as a state.
    When Ukraine is done, and Russia are in no rush, then the other matters of mutual security will be addressed. The world is changing, Steve. We are living through a moment of history that changes the world. The mutual security guarantees that Russia proposed in December 2021 will be implemented.
    Russia's goals at the start of the SMO were made clear. The whole "can't take Kiev in 3 days" and other bullshit is a western invention to support their pre-ordained narrative of Russian failure. Russia have never stated that they would take Kiev in 3 days. They could. It would cause great destruction and cause massive civilian deaths. Which is why they don't. NATO have no such qualms about civilian casualties (collateral damage) and use shock and awe tactics on civilians. This mindset is projected onto everybody else.
    Russia's goals were demilitarisating and de-Nazifying Ukraine. Not conquering territory. When Ukraine is demilitarised and de-Nazified(this is a euphemism for De-NATOfied by the way) then each oblast will decide for themselves via referenda what their future is. The true losses will no longer be able to be hidden or obfuscated in western media very soon. Ukraine/NATO are getting slaughtered and attrited at rates that they cannot sustain.
    I have asked before but received no reply on this question. What do you think Ukrainian/NATO victory even is? Can you define it? Is a Ukrainian/NATO victory even possible? Does it include Crimea? Donetsk? etc. What happens to the now pro-Russian people that Ukraine would be governing?
     There is no realistic scenario of Ukrainian/NATO victory that I can see that settles anything. The only way is self determination of the Ukrainians, oblast by oblast. Russia would not oppose this. A map of every Ukrainian election since 1991 shows quite clearly the divide between the largely ethnic Russian East and South and the west of Ukraine. Many oblasts would vote to join Russia or become independent but aligned with Russia. This is well known even though it isn't discussed in any western "analysis".
   

But to my knowledge there aren't any nuclear missiles of NATO states on Russia's borders.

Funny that Russia wants self-determination for Donetsk and Luhansk, yet is frightened of free and fair elections in its own country.

Russia's goals were to hang on to the booty they took by force in March 2014, namely Crimea. They couldn't care less about the Ukrainian people, or indeed ethnic Russians in Ukraine's oblasts. They do care about the warm water port of Sevastopol, however.

Ukraine should prevail. Putin has implemented divide and rule in Moscow for 23 years, successfully. It's a less successful strategy when dealing with the military top brass, as we have witnessed in the conduct of the special military operation to date.

[gringo]

But to my knowledge there aren't any nuclear missiles of NATO states on Russia's borders.

Funny that Russia wants self-determination for Donetsk and Luhansk, yet is frightened of free and fair elections in its own country.

Russia's goals was to hang on to the booty they took by force in March 2014, namely Crimea. They couldn't care less about the Ukrainian people, or indeed ethnic Russians in Ukraine's oblasts. They do care about the warm water port of Sevastopol, however.

Ukraine should prevail. Putin has implemented divide and rule in Moscow for 23 years, successfully. It's a less successful strategy when dealing with the military top brass, as we have witnessed in the conduct of the special military operation to date.

   To your first point, Steve, you have created a straw man. Your highlighted part of my post refers only to NATO missiles. Whether they are nuclear or non nuclear is not the issue. Any missile threat can become a nuclear missile threat.

    As you asked the question, how about you speculate as to the outcome/settlement. You asked me a question, I answered your question, made clear it was my opinion of what the outcome would be. How does that exchange lead coherently to your reply?

    You are wrong on every point anyway. Crimea wasn't taken by force. For the Ukrainian regime to control it they would have to take it by force even if the Russian military pulled out. Crimea is Russian and only became part of Ukraine in 1954 when Khrushchev added it to Ukraine's borders. As it was all part of the Soviet Union-it didn't seem to matter at the time. On the break up of the Soviet Union, Crimea held a referendum in 1991 and voted overwhelmingly (94%) to re-establish the autonomous Crimean Republic. This vote wasn't recognised by anyone including the newly created Russian Federation. It demonstrates quite clearly that Crimean people have never felt part of Ukraine. Sevastopol has been home to Russian/Soviet Black Sea fleet for longer than the USA has existed as a country. Russia didn't invade-they were already there with a supportive population. Ukraine would have to "deal with" that hostile population. How do you reasonably support Ukraine "liberating" Crimea? They want to "liberate" the territory from its current inhabitants.
    Where do you think it leads to if NATO carries on arming and funding Ukraine towards this goal? Why do you think that the Ukrainian regime should even control Crimea? For whose benefit is this? Why do you even think the "liberation" or attacking of Crimea is justifiable?
     

[David1819]

This could get interesting..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

[Roch]

Looks like trouble for Putin now. All this Wagner carry on.

[David1819]

In Tankie fantasy world I guess Wagner has been part of the CIA all along 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/24/russia-ukraine-live-news-russia-accuses-wagner-chief-of-mutiny

[Bubo bubo]

In Tankie fantasy world I guess Wagner has been part of the CIA all along 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/24/russia-ukraine-live-news-russia-accuses-wagner-chief-of-mutiny

I have not contributed much to this thread but it seems to me that his 'beef' is with the senior military who he sees as incompetent and it is their hubris, mismanagement and failings including logistics problems which have led to setbacks and problems with the 'special military operation' that has wasted the lives of many Russians including his forces and wasted huge quantities of fighting assets.

[Roch]

I have not contributed much to this thread but it seems to me that his 'beef' is with the senior military who he sees as incompetent and it is their hubris, mismanagement and failings including logistics problems which have led to setbacks and problems with the 'special military operation' that has wasted the lives of many Russians including his forces and wasted huge quantities of fighting assets.

It looks like the hitherto pathetic spring offensive might gather pace now. 

[David1819]

Prighozin and his Wagner forces are on the M4 highway towards Moscow!

[Roch]

Prighozin and his Wagner forces are on the M4 highway towards Moscow!

There must be more to it than meets the eye. He must have support among some of the official military.  Putin might need a Mr Burns type escape pod?

[David1819]

There must be more to it than meets the eye. He must have support among some of the official military.  Putin might need a Mr Burns type escape pod?

"A Kremlin spokesman has denied reports that Vladimir Putin has fled Moscow by plane.

One of several planes that Putin uses for official visits took off from Moscow at 2.15 pm local time, according to Flight Radar, which tracks aircraft in real-time."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-coup-wagner-kremlin-yevgeny-prigozhin/

[David1819]

Former Russian PM: 'Putin has 48 hours to stop Prigozhin's rebellion'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4g6j7mQfp8

[lookout]

A belated April Fool.

[Roch]

A belated April Fool.

Looks like it.

[gringo]

     Well whatever the entire theatre was about has now ended/moved on to Act II. The immediate response to this on here has been predictably knee jerk. It is reasonable to say that not everything is as seems, especially in war. I have no idea what the latest theatre was all about, but I am doubtful that it was a real attempted coup.
     Prigozhin has been a source of much disinformation and distraction, most of it contradictory. Some of it, such as complaining about lack of shells in Bakhmut, worked so well that it encouraged the Ukrainian command to pour more fodder into the extremely efficient Bakhmut meat grinder. Anything uttered by or done by Prigozhin is only taken at face value by the uninformed. A quick run through his contradictory statements and actions throughout the war show that. Everything is a psyop with Prigozhin. He works for the GRU(their speciality). 
     That Wagner are a cut out of the GRU is not really a secret to anyone, or shouldn't be. Same as Academi and Blackwater were cut-outs of US intel. "Aegis Defence Services", one of a handful of UK "so called" PMC's(Private Military Contractors). All of these mercenary groups are in reality state operatives. The reason that they exist is that they can operate outside of state oversight and give some sort of "plausible deniability" to the state they are working for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_military_contractors#US_companies
     Wagner, are in effect, the GRU(military intelligence).
     One of the effects of this whole coup/not coup could be the upgrading of the SMO(special military operation) to a CTO or ATO(Counter/Anti terrorist operation). Doing so removes some legal restraints on the use of armed forces. It frees the armed forces to operate outside of Russian territory. This has been a debate in Russia for some time with most Russians very hawkish. Was it set up for this purpose? Was it allowed to happen? Was it really an attempted coup?
    Wagner are now returning to bases after talks with Belorussian leader, Lukashenko? All very odd. I would await judgement on what has occurred for a few days. What happens over the next few days may help to clear some of the "fog of war"/smokescreen?