Jeremy Bamber Forum

JEREMY BAMBER CASE => Jeremy Bamber Case Discussion => Topic started by: guest29835 on December 29, 2021, 04:27:AM

Title: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 29, 2021, 04:27:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom, but without being moved from one to the other.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and from the farm.  I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  Jeremy's imprecations fall on stony ground with Colin.  While Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.   

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-loading the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breech cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.  A related problem, arising from the first mistake, is that when shooting Sheila again, Jeremy does not fire at an angle roughly consistent with the first shot, with the consequence that he leaves a large triangulation between the two shots - which is inevitably suspicious when you consider the size of the weapon and the likely physical acuities of Sheila herself.  Yet this mistake was probably unavoidable once the first mistake was made.  Peter Venezis' evidence was, I believe, correct in this respect, in that Sheila was first shot when sitting up slightly.  In this scenario, that means that as Jeremy is pinning her down, he quickly fires, maybe rashly or inadvertently, having not quite got her into a flat position because she is beginning to struggle.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  He hadn't planned for this.  Won't there be questions about how Nevill got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why Nevill didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face once investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out or on the way back, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and he suddenly also reassures himself that if he is seen on the way back, he can try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth, fact and lies, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breech.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breech, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4     

5. Variation on this scenario

Nevill ending up in the kitchen is a big problem for Jeremy in this scenario, however I have thought of a variation on it in which Jeremy overhears Nevill mention at the kitchen table that evening that he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake the others.  It may even have been discussed that Sheila would "again" sleep in the master bedroom, so as to be near the twins.  (Of course, Jeremy may also have been aware that Nevill sometimes slept downstairs, especially at that time of year, and anticipated this - perhaps intending to kill Nevill last, or first).

In that case, Jeremy would not lure Nevill upstairs.  You would also think that Jeremy would not invent the phone call, he would simply tell the police that Nevill's habit was to sleep downstairs, including when Sheila is asleep in the main bedroom.  That is what I believed at first, but then I realised there is a flaw in it, which is that Jeremy would then need to explain how it is that Sheila gets up and out of the main bedroom without disturbing June and how she gets hold of the rifle without alerting Nevill.  This may seem only a small problem, but in Jeremy's mind it may have loomed large and led him down a course of logical-intuitive reasoning to invent the phone call and pretend that Nevill was upstairs initially, Sheila was in her own bedroom, and Nevill followed Sheila downstairs.  You may think I am over-crediting Jeremy and he would not think of these things, but I think he could, as they are at root intuitive points that may occur to somebody in that situation.

This variation is only a change in Jeremy's rationalisations for his own actions at the scene.  It doesn't alter the technical details, including the firing order given in section 4 above.                     
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on December 29, 2021, 11:12:AM
Thanks QC that was a interesting read.

I have a couple of questions:

The bullet cases in the master bedroom/kitchen do not match with your scenario?

Also I was thinking about the dog, it would have made a racket as JB came in through the window and especially as soon as the first shot was fired?

I also think it unlikely Sheila would have slept with June just to be a few feet nearer the twins?

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:26:AM
Thanks QC that was a interesting read.

I have a couple of questions:

The bullet cases in the master bedroom/kitchen do not match with your scenario?

Also I was thinking about the dog, it would have made a racket as JB came in through the window and especially as soon as the first shot was fired?

I also think it unlikely Sheila would have slept with June just to be a few feet nearer the twins?

How do you know?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:35:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

Well he spent a year planning it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:37:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

She was killed in the master bedroom.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:39:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

I did ask you about the CT reason why Bamber June's bike - so Julie could cycle to the station when going home.

You didn't respond.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:41:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

The cycle route was easy. The successful prosecution case was he cycled. But feel free to believe he walked 6 miles.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:43:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

The successful prosecution case has Bamber using a silencer. Due to the evidence. It was a silent massacre attempt.

But it's your scenario.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:47:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

How could he find them all dead. WHF was locked from inside.

Bang goes the chance to spend hours insinuating Sheila to the police.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on December 29, 2021, 11:50:AM
How could he find them all dead. WHF was locked from inside.

Bang goes the chance to spend hours insinuating Sheila to the police.


Without him 'encouraging' them to believe they'd find a case of murder/suicide, they may well have looked more closely at the alleged suicide and realized that all wasn't quite as it seemed.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:52:AM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

Bamber must have good ears.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 12:00:PM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

Perhaps a struggle.

Have you read about Nevill's injuries.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 12:02:PM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing. She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

June was shot 5 times in bed.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 12:08:PM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and fro the farm, however I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  However, while Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.  Jeremy also hears that Sheila may well sleep in the master bedroom "again" tonight, to be near the twins.  Nevill mentions he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake them.

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-load the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  Won't there be questions about how he got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why he didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face after investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and if he is seen on the way back, he will try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth and fact, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4                           

Nevill was shot 8 times. Six times in the head. He was also brutally beaten.

Bamber lifted him onto a coal scuttle & burnt his back to check for life.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 12:16:PM
Here is a more straight forward scenario. Which matches the evidence.

Cycle to WHF:

Evidence - June's bike brought over to Bamber's cottage just before massacre.  Easy journey. Unseen.


Get into WHF

Evidence - Bathroom window loose or open. Quiet ground floor entrance. Bamber said he knew how to get in through this window.

Pick up rifle:

Evidence ' Rifle available as stated by Bamber.


Fire one bullet into each twin.

Evidence - Julie said the twins were shot first.


Enter main bedroom:

Evidence - Two adults in this room who must be killed with remaining 9 bullets as potential to provide most resistance.


Shoot an in bed June and Neville:

Evidence - 9 shots were fired in the main bedroom opening salvo suggesting rifle was emptied in opening salvo.   June and Neville shot in or near the bed.


Go to reload or chase Neville:

Evidence - Spare bullets found in kitchen. Neville found in kitchen.


Kitchen fight:

Evidence - Neville was brutally beaten there.  Upturned and smashed kitchen items. Scratch marks on aga.


Reload, shoot and kill a knocked out Neville:

Evidence - Four kitchen head shots into Neville.


Reload. Return upstairs:

Evidence - All other shots upstairs.


Shoot June twice more:

Evidence - June had moved a few feet. Final shots required. Two of June's 7 shots would have killed her quickly.


Shoot the sleeping twins more times

Evidence - Twins shot 8 times in bed. Amount of bullets used shows two reloads carried out on the night.


Either wake and shoot or shoot an already awake Sheila:

Evidence - Sheila found shot in the corner of main bedroom. Sheila on Haloperidol so easy to control.


Go downstairs to check on Nevill

Evidence - Nevill was downstairs.


Remove & replace silencer. Move Nevill. Burn his back.

Evidence - Silencer with Sheila's blood & aga paint on/in found in cupboard. Nevill's back burnt. Nevill lifted onto coal scuttle.


Stage the scene:

Evidence - Gun and bible by Sheila.


Exit out of kitchen window:


Evidence - Twenty sources say it can be banged shut from outside. Housekeeper said items moved by kitchen window.on night of massacre.


Cycle home:

Evidence - Bike found at Bambers cottage
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on December 29, 2021, 12:54:PM
Did you enjoy that, Adam---BRAT !!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 01:10:PM
Just responding to QC's scenario.

It is strange how people try to complicate things. Follow the evidence & it is a straight forward scenario.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on December 29, 2021, 01:15:PM
There is no need to post the same thing over and over, cluttering up the forum Adam.

No wonder it's so hard to find information.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 01:18:PM
There is no need to post the same thing over and over, cluttering up the forum Adam.

No wonder it's so hard to find information.

I did used to copy & paste a section. Then reply underneath. That took up less room.

However QC complained about this.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on December 29, 2021, 01:19:PM
There is no need to post the same thing over and over, cluttering up the forum Adam.

No wonder it's so hard to find information.





Purposely done Rob because it wasn't his post---not that he could post like that to start with.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 29, 2021, 11:16:PM
Thanks QC that was a interesting read.

I have a couple of questions:

The bullet cases in the master bedroom/kitchen do not match with your scenario?

Also I was thinking about the dog, it would have made a racket as JB came in through the window and especially as soon as the first shot was fired?

I also think it unlikely Sheila would have slept with June just to be a few feet nearer the twins?

The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was severely mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  In a sense, her parents were still her carers.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins, especially if the twins also had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  And apart from what Jeremy would plan to do, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy could very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

That points to Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place.  I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:20:PM
The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins or if the twins had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  Apart from anything else, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy would very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.

No evidence they were.

You rwally should create a scenario on the evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 29, 2021, 11:20:PM
No evidence they were.

You rwally should create a scenario on the evidence.

I have done so.  My scenario is based on the evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:22:PM
The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was severely mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  In a sense, her parents were still her carers.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins, especially if the twins also had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  Apart from anything else, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy could very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.

Doubt Nevill woke.

He was upstairs, asleep behind closed doors.

Bamber had probably perfected a quiet entrance routine.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 29, 2021, 11:24:PM
Here we go again...
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:25:PM
The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was severely mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  In a sense, her parents were still her carers.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins, especially if the twins also had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  And apart from what Jeremy would plan to do, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy could very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.

Don't recall ever climbing into bed with granny.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 29, 2021, 11:28:PM
The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was severely mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  In a sense, her parents were still her carers.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins, especially if the twins also had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  And apart from what Jeremy would plan to do, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy could very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

That points to Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place.  I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.

The successful prosecution case is Sheila was moved from her bedroom.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on December 30, 2021, 12:01:AM
The location of the spent cartridges cannot be relied on as they could have easily been moved around by police officers marching all over the crime scene in thick-tread boots.

Bruce was in the yard and I think he was open-kennelled.  He probably barked initially, but on recognising Jeremy (by scent), he would have quickly stopped. 

Crispy was asleep downstairs, I believe, but you will see that my scenario has Nevill alerted by the noise of Jeremy's entry into the farmhouse.  There are two further points to consider, though.  First, Jeremy had a habit of entering the farmhouse in this manner, and probably Crispy would have recognised him.  Second, it also depends on which window Jeremy used.  There is the kitchen window, but knowing about Crispy and the stuff on the sink top, Jeremy may have decided to enter via the downstairs shower/WC window.  This would presumably have the advantage that the shower/WC door was closed, so any noise was less likely to alert Nevill, if he were downstairs.

It has occurred to me that Jeremy may have anticipated that Nevill would be asleep downstairs or sitting in the lounge, even at a late hour, so I have edited my scenario to allow for this by adding a section at the end.

I agree it would be odd for a 28 year old son to sleep in the same bed as his mother and father, but Sheila was a woman, so it's a bit different, and remember she was severely mentally-ill and had all sorts of 'issues'.  In a sense, her parents were still her carers.  She may have found it easier to be in the main bedroom to access the twins, especially if the twins also had a habit of walking into the main bedroom through the box room. I know from experience that small boys will often want maternal comfort at night and/or in the morning and will climb into bed with 'Mummy' or 'Granny'.

The main reason I posit Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place is because it very much fits the evidence and explains an issue I have with the prosecution case, which is why Jeremy would position Sheila in the main bedroom rather than with the twins.  And apart from what Jeremy would plan to do, wouldn't a threatened Sheila run towards the twins instinctively and end up with them anyway? 

To my mind, it only makes sense if we say that:

(i). Sheila was shot in her own bedroom or the main bedroom without transiting from one to the other; and,
(ii). Sheila was caught in a position where Jeremy could very quickly pull her off the bed and pin her to the floor.

That points to Sheila sleeping in Nevill's place.  I think all the evidence: blood, pathological, ballistic, is consistent with this possibility.  I only say it is a possibility, and I do not say it is without problems, though it seems the problem is psychological-behavioural, not strictly forensic: i.e. why Sheila would sleep in the main bed, isn't that odd, etc.

Thanks for your detailed reply QC, it does answer a lot of questions if Sheila is in the master bedroom with June.

If she was then probably Sheila was shot while asleep before June was shot? assuming no one had been woken up by the racket downstairs? Unless JB crept up the stairs first, but I think JB's first priority was dealing with Nevil?

One problem I see is why would JB put Sheila on the floor, if she is already beside June why not leave her their? he would have literally a second to do this or the blood staining etc. would give the game away?

Do you see any significance in Nevil being beside the kitchen door? I would have expected him to have been near the phone?





Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 30, 2021, 12:22:AM
Thanks for your detailed reply QC, it does answer a lot of questions if Sheila is in the master bedroom with June.

If she was then probably Sheila was shot while asleep before June was shot? assuming no one had been woken up by the racket downstairs? Unless JB crept up the stairs first, but I think JB's first priority was dealing with Nevil?

One problem I see is why would JB put Sheila on the floor, if she is already beside June why not leave her their? he would have literally a second to do this or the blood staining etc. would give the game away?

Do you see any significance in Nevil being beside the kitchen door? I would have expected him to have been near the phone?

In my scenario above, Nevill is shot first, as you can see.  There were blood finger marks near the phone, which may indicate Nevill was trying to reach it.  He may have been stopped by Jeremy, who has then pushed him away, and Nevill has then made for the kitchen door, perhaps in the forlorn hope of getting to the den or the back door.

June is shot before Sheila as she comes out on to the landing to see what the commotion is.  June crawls around a bit, leaving blood, then Jeremy shoots her between the eyes; or, Jeremy leaves June for dead but she is still alive and is moving around, and he shoots her between the eyes later after killing the twins.

Pulling Sheila off the bed makes sense as part of a murder-suicide staging.  If he killed her in bed, it may look suspicious.  I would guess it's also an instinctive control thing.  He has to act quickly.  He needs to take control.  The springiness of the bed may make lining up the rifle barrel with her still on the bed difficult.  So he quickly pulls her off.  He is holding the rifle while he does this.  He then pins her down.  Peter Vanezis' evidence is probably correct that Sheila was shot while slightly sitting up.  What may have happened is that as he is pinning her down on the floor, she starts to struggle, and he may have inadvertently shot her before he quite had her lying flat.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on December 30, 2021, 12:51:AM
This is more a note to myself than anything.  When adding the additional section 5 to my original post, it occurs to me that if Jeremy knows Nevill could be asleep downstairs, that puts a hole in the prosecution scenario because you then have to explain how Jeremy comes to shoot Nevill.  It can't be that Jeremy goes upstairs first.  I agree with Rob that Jeremy must negate Nevill first. 

Does this mean that Jeremy lures Nevill into the kitchen, maybe by making some noise?  One possibility is that Jeremy makes his presence known to Nevill, but in an apparently benign way, thus tricking him.  Yet the back and front doors are locked from the inside, so wouldn't Nevill be angry and suspicious, if anything?  I have a few thoughts on this, but I tend to the view that Jeremy may have entered the farmhouse knowing that he could immediately alert Nevill and have to struggle with him, but then isn't that bad planning with a huge risk that Nevill would alert the outside world or get to a weapon first?

The problem of thinking aloud!  Another possibility is that Jeremy decided that, if necessary, he could start upstairs and deal with Nevill later on the basis that Nevill does not hear or does not fully realise what is going on.  Jeremy then returns down the stairs and at that point is confronted by a puzzled Nevill.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 30, 2021, 06:49:AM
This is more a note to myself than anything.  When adding the additional section 5 to my original post, it occurs to me that if Jeremy knows Nevill could be asleep downstairs, that puts a hole in the prosecution scenario because you then have to explain how Jeremy comes to shoot Nevill.  It can't be that Jeremy goes upstairs first.  I agree with Rob that Jeremy must negate Nevill first. 

Does this mean that Jeremy lures Nevill into the kitchen, maybe by making some noise?  One possibility is that Jeremy makes his presence known to Nevill, but in an apparently benign way, thus tricking him.  Yet the back and front doors are locked from the inside, so wouldn't Nevill be angry and suspicious, if anything?  I have a few thoughts on this, but I tend to the view that Jeremy may have entered the farmhouse knowing that he could immediately alert Nevill and have to struggle with him, but then isn't that bad planning with a huge risk that Nevill would alert the outside world or get to a weapon first?

The problem of thinking aloud!  Another possibility is that Jeremy decided that, if necessary, he could start upstairs and deal with Nevill later on the basis that Nevill does not hear or does not fully realise what is going on.  Jeremy then returns down the stairs and at that point is confronted by a puzzled Nevill.

What evidence is there that Nevill used to sleep all night downstairs. Rather than in his bed?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 30, 2021, 06:51:AM
This is more a note to myself than anything.  When adding the additional section 5 to my original post, it occurs to me that if Jeremy knows Nevill could be asleep downstairs, that puts a hole in the prosecution scenario because you then have to explain how Jeremy comes to shoot Nevill.  It can't be that Jeremy goes upstairs first.  I agree with Rob that Jeremy must negate Nevill first. 

Does this mean that Jeremy lures Nevill into the kitchen, maybe by making some noise?  One possibility is that Jeremy makes his presence known to Nevill, but in an apparently benign way, thus tricking him.  Yet the back and front doors are locked from the inside, so wouldn't Nevill be angry and suspicious, if anything?  I have a few thoughts on this, but I tend to the view that Jeremy may have entered the farmhouse knowing that he could immediately alert Nevill and have to struggle with him, but then isn't that bad planning with a huge risk that Nevill would alert the outside world or get to a weapon first?

The problem of thinking aloud!  Another possibility is that Jeremy decided that, if necessary, he could start upstairs and deal with Nevill later on the basis that Nevill does not hear or does not fully realise what is going on.  Jeremy then returns down the stairs and at that point is confronted by a puzzled Nevill.

Bad idea. Nevill was 6.4 & 15 stone.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 30, 2021, 06:53:AM
This is more a note to myself than anything.  When adding the additional section 5 to my original post, it occurs to me that if Jeremy knows Nevill could be asleep downstairs, that puts a hole in the prosecution scenario because you then have to explain how Jeremy comes to shoot Nevill.  It can't be that Jeremy goes upstairs first.  I agree with Rob that Jeremy must negate Nevill first. 

Does this mean that Jeremy lures Nevill into the kitchen, maybe by making some noise?  One possibility is that Jeremy makes his presence known to Nevill, but in an apparently benign way, thus tricking him.  Yet the back and front doors are locked from the inside, so wouldn't Nevill be angry and suspicious, if anything?  I have a few thoughts on this, but I tend to the view that Jeremy may have entered the farmhouse knowing that he could immediately alert Nevill and have to struggle with him, but then isn't that bad planning with a huge risk that Nevill would alert the outside world or get to a weapon first?

The problem of thinking aloud!  Another possibility is that Jeremy decided that, if necessary, he could start upstairs and deal with Nevill later on the basis that Nevill does not hear or does not fully realise what is going on.  Jeremy then returns down the stairs and at that point is confronted by a puzzled Nevill.

Doubtful. As said, Nevill would be upstairs, asleep, behind closed doors.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 30, 2021, 06:54:AM
In my scenario above, Nevill is shot first, as you can see.  There were blood finger marks near the phone, which may indicate Nevill was trying to reach it.  He may have been stopped by Jeremy, who has then pushed him away, and Nevill has then made for the kitchen door, perhaps in the forlorn hope of getting to the den or the back door.

June is shot before Sheila as she comes out on to the landing to see what the commotion is.  June crawls around a bit, leaving blood, then Jeremy shoots her between the eyes; or, Jeremy leaves June for dead but she is still alive and is moving around, and he shoots her between the eyes later after killing the twins.

Pulling Sheila off the bed makes sense as part of a murder-suicide staging.  If he killed her in bed, it may look suspicious.  I would guess it's also an instinctive control thing.  He has to act quickly.  He needs to take control.  The springiness of the bed may make lining up the rifle barrel with her still on the bed difficult.  So he quickly pulls her off.  He is holding the rifle while he does this.  He then pins her down.  Peter Vanezis' evidence is probably correct that Sheila was shot while slightly sitting up.  What may have happened is that as he is pinning her down on the floor, she starts to struggle, and he may have inadvertently shot her before he quite had her lying flat.

Were there?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on December 30, 2021, 06:56:AM
In my scenario above, Nevill is shot first, as you can see.  There were blood finger marks near the phone, which may indicate Nevill was trying to reach it.  He may have been stopped by Jeremy, who has then pushed him away, and Nevill has then made for the kitchen door, perhaps in the forlorn hope of getting to the den or the back door.

June is shot before Sheila as she comes out on to the landing to see what the commotion is.  June crawls around a bit, leaving blood, then Jeremy shoots her between the eyes; or, Jeremy leaves June for dead but she is still alive and is moving around, and he shoots her between the eyes later after killing the twins.

Pulling Sheila off the bed makes sense as part of a murder-suicide staging.  If he killed her in bed, it may look suspicious.  I would guess it's also an instinctive control thing.  He has to act quickly.  He needs to take control.  The springiness of the bed may make lining up the rifle barrel with her still on the bed difficult.  So he quickly pulls her off.  He is holding the rifle while he does this.  He then pins her down.  Peter Vanezis' evidence is probably correct that Sheila was shot while slightly sitting up.  What may have happened is that as he is pinning her down on the floor, she starts to struggle, and he may have inadvertently shot her before he quite had her lying flat.

June was shot 5 times in bed. Then twice on the bedroom floor.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on December 30, 2021, 10:05:AM
What was going on in the 2 hours after the parents deaths before Sheila's death ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Steve_uk on December 31, 2021, 09:40:PM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom, but without being moved from one to the other.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and from the farm.  I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  Jeremy's imprecations fall on stony ground with Colin.  While Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.   

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her. 

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-loading the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breach cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.  A related problem, arising from the first mistake, is that when shooting Sheila again, Jeremy does not fire at an angle roughly consistent with the first shot, with the consequence that he leaves a large triangulation between the two shots - which is inevitably suspicious when you consider the size of the weapon and the likely physical acuities of Sheila herself.  Yet this mistake was probably unavoidable once the first mistake was made.  Peter Venezis' evidence was, I believe, correct in this respect, in that Sheila was first shot when sitting up slightly.  In this scenario, that means that as Jeremy is pinning her down, he quickly fires, maybe rashly or inadvertently, having not quite got her into a flat position because she is beginning to struggle.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  He hadn't planned for this.  Won't there be questions about how Nevill got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why Nevill didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face once investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out or on the way back, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and he suddenly also reassures himself that if he is seen on the way back, he can try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth, fact and lies, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breach.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breach, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4     

5. Variation on this scenario

Nevill ending up in the kitchen is a big problem for Jeremy in this scenario, however I have thought of a variation on it in which Jeremy overhears Nevill mention at the kitchen table that evening that he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake the others.  It may even have been discussed that Sheila would "again" sleep in the master bedroom, so as to be near the twins.  (Of course, Jeremy may also have been aware that Nevill sometimes slept downstairs, especially at that time of year, and anticipated this - perhaps intending to kill Nevill last, or first).

In that case, Jeremy would not lure Nevill upstairs.  You would also think that Jeremy would not invent the phone call, he would simply tell the police that Nevill's habit was to sleep downstairs, including when Sheila is asleep in the main bedroom.  That is what I believed at first, but then I realised there is a flaw in it, which is that Jeremy would then need to explain how it is that Sheila gets up and out of the main bedroom without disturbing June and how she gets hold of the rifle without alerting Nevill.  This may seem only a small problem, but in Jeremy's mind it may have loomed large and led him down a course of logical-intuitive reasoning to invent the phone call and pretend that Nevill was upstairs initially, Sheila was in her own bedroom, and Nevill followed Sheila downstairs.  You may think I am over-crediting Jeremy and he would not think of these things, but I think he could, as they are at root intuitive points that may occur to somebody in that situation.

This variation is only a change in Jeremy's rationalisations for his own actions at the scene.  It doesn't alter the technical details, including the firing order given in section 4 above.                   
A bit like this thread really.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Steve_uk on December 31, 2021, 09:45:PM
In my scenario above, Nevill is shot first, as you can see.  There were blood finger marks near the phone, which may indicate Nevill was trying to reach it.  He may have been stopped by Jeremy, who has then pushed him away, and Nevill has then made for the kitchen door, perhaps in the forlorn hope of getting to the den or the back door.

June is shot before Sheila as she comes out on to the landing to see what the commotion is.  June crawls around a bit, leaving blood, then Jeremy shoots her between the eyes; or, Jeremy leaves June for dead but she is still alive and is moving around, and he shoots her between the eyes later after killing the twins.

Pulling Sheila off the bed makes sense as part of a murder-suicide staging.  If he killed her in bed, it may look suspicious.  I would guess it's also an instinctive control thing.  He has to act quickly.  He needs to take control.  The springiness of the bed may make lining up the rifle barrel with her still on the bed difficult.  So he quickly pulls her off.  He is holding the rifle while he does this.  He then pins her down.  Peter Vanezis' evidence is probably correct that Sheila was shot while slightly sitting up.  What may have happened is that as he is pinning her down on the floor, she starts to struggle, and he may have inadvertently shot her before he quite had her lying flat.
June was shot first as she lay in bed. The first hail of bullets went through her pillow.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on December 31, 2021, 10:48:PM
Not a good shot was it ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Steve_uk on January 01, 2022, 01:11:AM
Not a good shot was it ?
Well they passed through the pillow after hitting her. A rifle meant to kill vermin.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 01:17:PM
Well they passed through the pillow after hitting her. A rifle meant to kill vermin.

Low velocity gun, that's why needed multiple shots. But the gun choosen was right for the massacre. At face value looked like a mad person gone crazy when in reality everytime it hit the targets!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 01, 2022, 01:49:PM
Low velocity gun, that's why needed multiple shots. But the gun choosen was right for the massacre. At face value looked like a mad person gone crazy when in reality everytime it hit the targets!

Easy to handle lightweight weapon, fired at close range within rooms. Both adults less physically mobile with each shot. Possibly even stationary. Shooter not injured (other than fight wounds).
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 02:05:PM
Low velocity gun, that's why needed multiple shots. But the gun choosen was right for the massacre. At face value looked like a mad person gone crazy when in reality everytime it hit the targets!

I don't understand what you are saying Munksa? virtually non moving targets at point blank range it would be harder to miss.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 02:13:PM
I don't understand what you are saying Munksa? virtually non moving targets at point blank range it would be harder to miss.


I think I may. Jeremy had won prizes for shooting. Could mean he prided himself on being something of a marksman. Sheila wasn't, ergo, put a gun in Sheila's hands and her lack of competency would be shown by the results. JB really didn't want it to look like a competent marksman had carried out the murders. He wanted it to look like Sheila had.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 02:16:PM
Why did June and Nevill appear to have been killed at least 2 hours before Sheila was ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 01, 2022, 02:17:PM

I think I may. Jeremy had won prizes for shooting. Could mean he prided himself on being something of a marksman. Sheila wasn't, ergo, put a gun in Sheila's hands and her lack of competency would be shown by the results. JB really didn't want it to look like a competent marksman had carried out the murders. He wanted it to look like Sheila had.

Guilters want it all ways. One minute, accurate shots at virtually immobile targets are a sign of guilt. The next, 'making it look like a madwoman had gone berserk' is a sign of guilt.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 02:17:PM
What went on in those 2hrs difference ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 02:20:PM
Were brother and sister having a heart to heart while the rest of the family had lain dead, or what ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:21:PM
Easy to handle lightweight weapon, fired at close range within rooms. Both adults less physically mobile with each shot. Possibly even stationary. Shooter not injured (other than fight wounds).

Some who have used this gun will not agree to the one I have in bold.

What fight wounds? Evidence of this please. Thanks
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 02:23:PM
Compare pics of all 3. I can see the difference if no-one else can.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 02:27:PM
Sheila had been malleable but I can't say the same for either parent, which means that they had reached the stage of rigor mortis, Sheila was only at the beginning of livor mortis. A big difference, about 2 hours in fact.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:28:PM
I don't understand what you are saying Munksa? virtually non moving targets at point blank range it would be harder to miss.

Thanks for this question actually...I repeat as I  said at face value it might look like a mad woman going crazy,  a lot of supporters I have come across believe with so many shots it was Sheila who did it. They say if it was Jeremy he would have killed them with a shot or two.

I hope it's clear
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:30:PM
Guilters want it all ways. One minute, accurate shots at virtually immobile targets are a sign of guilt. The next, 'making it look like a madwoman had gone berserk' is a sign of guilt.

Who said it's a sign of guilt? I havnt

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 02:33:PM

I think I may. Jeremy had won prizes for shooting. Could mean he prided himself on being something of a marksman. Sheila wasn't, ergo, put a gun in Sheila's hands and her lack of competency would be shown by the results. JB really didn't want it to look like a competent marksman had carried out the murders. He wanted it to look like Sheila had.

It was a low recoil gun Jane, anyone could use it, I have seen videos saying a child could use it. There is in my view nothing indicating that a crack shooter was needed to carry out the crime.

The only requirement was that whoever it was need to be completely deranged.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 02:34:PM
Guilters want it all ways. One minute, accurate shots at virtually immobile targets are a sign of guilt. The next, 'making it look like a madwoman had gone berserk' is a sign of guilt.


Clever, wasn't he? Haphazard shooting? Certainly. However, all bullets fired went 'home', didn't they? Four victims meant to look like it was the work of an incompetent, but every bullet found a place to go.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:35:PM
Sheila had been malleable but I can't say the same for either parent, which means that they had reached the stage of rigor mortis, Sheila was only at the beginning of livor mortis. A big difference, about 2 hours in fact.

You can't know this unless you were present at the crime scene there. If it's your opinion that's fine but if you state this as a fact please provide source as I have never come across this.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:37:PM
Not sure why my answer got inside the quote
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 02:39:PM
Thanks for this question actually...I repeat as I  said at face value it might look like a mad woman going crazy,  a lot of supporters I have come across believe with so many shots it was Sheila who did it. They say if it was Jeremy he would have killed them with a shot or two.

I hope it's clear

Sorry if I misunderstood you Munksa, but the way your phrased your post:

"At face value looked like a mad person gone crazy when in reality everytime it hit the targets!"

It looked like you were implying that skill was needed in handling the gun.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 02:39:PM
It was a low recoil gun Jane, anyone could use it, I have seen videos saying a child could use it. There is in my view nothing indicating that a crack shooter was needed to carry out the crime.

The only requirement was that whoever it was need to be completely deranged.


Whereas, in reality, they were in complete control and making it look "completely deranged".
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 02:41:PM

Clever, wasn't he? Haphazard shooting? Certainly. However, all bullets fired went 'home', didn't they? Four victims meant to look like it was the work of an incompetent, but every bullet found a place to go.

He could have missed if he wanted to Jane? I don't understand your line of logic?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:47:PM

Whereas, in reality, they were in complete control and making it look "completely deranged".

Exactly!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 02:49:PM
He could have missed if he wanted to Jane? I don't understand your line of logic?


He COULD have, certainly, but ultimately, he wanted them dead, which meant that any deliberately missed shots potentially gave opportunities for fight or flight.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 02:50:PM
He could have missed if he wanted to Jane? I don't understand your line of logic?

But for many supporters I have come across those many shots are enough to convience them it was Sheila. And I am sure that's all Bamber needed. What we think is irrelevant, if it made sense to Bamber that's all that matters.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 02:51:PM
Sheila had been malleable but I can't say the same for either parent, which means that they had reached the stage of rigor mortis, Sheila was only at the beginning of livor mortis. A big difference, about 2 hours in fact.

But the expert witness by way of Dr Criag said otherwise.  And for those who find Dr Craig an unreliable witness, albeit there's no rational reason why, there's also CSI Harris who had decades of experience and presided over numerous murders.  Afaik not a single police officer commented that there was any noticeable differences between the victims in terms of post mortem appearance.  This extends to DCI Jones who made no such notes in his notebook despite observing other highly relevant data eg bloodstains and state of all windows and doors.  And yet 'supporters' believe they can see things in scene of crime images that those physically present completely overlooked!   ::)  Just more desperation and utter nonsense from 'supporters'. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: David1819 on January 01, 2022, 02:53:PM
Some who have used this gun will not agree to the one I have in bold.

What fight wounds? Evidence of this please. Thanks

He thinks streaks of bloodstains that dripped on Sheila's right arm (from the gunshot wounds to her neck) are actually fight wounds that June inflicted on Sheila despite being shot five times in bed. Then Vanezis and EP conspired to conceal these from day one.  :-[

If I had to believe in a conspiracy theory involving EP. It would be them sending in Bill Robertson as a saboteur to spread crazy ideas on this forum and to misdirect the campaign team. Bill could even be an alias for Mick Ainsley!  :o  :))

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 02:53:PM
But for many supporters I have come across those many shots are enough to convience them it was Sheila. And I am sure that's all Bamber needed. What we think is irrelevant, if it made sense to Bamber that's all that matters.

No you miss my point which is no skill was needed to carry out the shootings, BUT whoever did it was completely deranged.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 03:02:PM
No you miss my point which is no skill was needed to carry out the shootings, BUT whoever did it was completely deranged.


The late Les Dawson, on occasions, made an absolute cock-up of playing the piano. In reality, he was an excellent pianist and it took as much skill to play the right notes in the wrong order, as it did to play them as written.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 03:07:PM
But the expert witness by way of Dr Criag said otherwise.  And for those who find Dr Craig an unreliable witness, albeit there's no rational reason why, there's also CSI Harris who had decades of experience and presided over numerous murders.  Afaik not a single police officer commented that there was any noticeable differences between the victims in terms of post mortem appearance.  This extends to DCI Jones who made no such notes in his notebook despite observing other highly relevant data eg bloodstains and state of all windows and doors.  And yet 'supporters' believe they can see things in scene of crime images that those physically present completely overlooked!   ::)  Just more desperation and utter nonsense from 'supporters'.






" Utter nonsense" is also the usual typical snide response that comes from guilters on numerous occasions if we supporters happen to come across something that doesn't sit right too !
You're not the only ones who can have their say you know, although you've got it easier !
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 03:09:PM
You need to go to Specsavers if you can't see that they didn't all die at once !
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 01, 2022, 03:11:PM

The late Les Dawson, on occasions, made an absolute cock-up of playing the piano. In reality, he was an excellent pianist and it took as much skill to play the right notes in the wrong order, as it did to play them as written.

I agree Jane, but Sheila cannot be eliminated as a suspect as to me no skill was required to carry out the shootings. The shooter just had to be seriously mentally ill.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 03:15:PM
" Utter nonsense" is also the usual typical snide response that comes from guilters on numerous occasions if we supporters happen to come across something that doesn't sit right too !
You're not the only ones who can have their say you know, although you've got it easier !

If its not utter nonsense what are you relying on as evidence to show that Sheila died significantly later than the other victims? 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 03:20:PM
He thinks streaks of bloodstains that dripped on Sheila's right arm (from the gunshot wounds to her neck) are actually fight wounds that June inflicted on Sheila despite being shot five times in bed. Then Vanezis and EP conspired to conceal these from day one.  :-[

If I had to believe in a conspiracy theory involving EP. It would be them sending in Bill Robertson as a saboteur to spread crazy ideas on this forum and to misdirect the campaign team. Bill could even be an alias for Mick Ainsley!  :o  :))

Thanks. I think I read in one of the post but wasn't sure it was Roch. But asked him as he made the claim here.

If we can stick to topic like this we can have a decent conversation, there is always enough room to learn and sometimes unlearn too.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 03:20:PM
You need to go to Specsavers if you can't see that they didn't all die at once !

Try telling that then to Dr Craig, Prof Vanezis, Prof Knight, CSI Harris and DCI Jones.  At the time of the murders these guys had literally hundreds of years of experience between them.  All believed Sheila was responsible apart from Prof Vanezis who said he found nothing to contradict the murder/suicide theory.  If it is as obvious as you would have us believe why didn't any use it to support their position ie that Sheila was responsible?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 03:21:PM

The late Les Dawson, on occasions, made an absolute cock-up of playing the piano. In reality, he was an excellent pianist and it took as much skill to play the right notes in the wrong order, as it did to play them as written.

Lol Jane your answers crack me up 😆
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 03:48:PM
Dr Craig at trial said the deaths could have occured at anytime during the previous night. If Sheila died much later than the other victims, to be more precise after the raid team entry Dr Craig would have definately known the difference. Of course the only other possibility is Dr. Craig lied. Everybody lied in this case, no one is left. Bloody hell this is a bigger than that of Princess Diana. But maybe because Jeremy Bamber is Lady Di's ex- step brother in law 😁 as claimed by the Boss Mr Teskowsky.

I saw a video of Mr Teskowsky in a fake American accent hahaha, absolutely bonkers. He is on a toilet seat I think with shift eyes as he speaks. Epic!

Fact is one cannot establish rigor and livor without examining the body certainly not from God knows how many  copies of the original one.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: David1819 on January 01, 2022, 03:58:PM
Dr Craig at trial said the deaths could have occured at anytime during the previous night. If Sheila died much later than the other victims, to be more precise after the raid team entry Dr Craig would have definately known the difference. Of course the only other possibility is Dr. Craig lied. Everybody lied in this case, no one is left. Bloody hell this is a bigger than that of Princess Diana. But maybe because Jeremy Bamber is Lady Di's ex- step brother in law 😁 as claimed by the Boss Mr Teskowsky.

I saw a video of Mr Teskowsky in a fake American accent hahaha, absolutely bonkers. He is on a toilet seat I think with shift eyes as he speaks. Epic!

Fact is one cannot establish rigor and livor without examining the body certainly not from God knows how many  copies of the original one.

Dr Craig is not a pathologist and he never carried out a physical examination of bodies (see the Dickinson report attached). All he did was confirm they were dead. He failed to even notice Sheila had been shot twice. Based on the timings given in the witness statements, he spent less than 15 minutes at the crime scene.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 04:05:PM
Dr Craig is not a pathologist and he never carried out a physical examination of bodies (see the Dickinson report attached). All he did was confirm they were dead. He failed to even notice Sheila had been shot twice. Based on the timings given in the witness statements, he spent less than 15 minutes at the crime scene.

He was a police surgeon of long experience and in a far better position to discern any notable differences in post mortem appearance of victims than the totally unqualified views of 'supporters'.  You then have all the officers at scene with hundreds of years experience between them of managing murder cases.  And two highly trained pathologists of long experience who had access to all the scene of crime images.

What evidence exists that Sheila died significantly later than the other victims?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 04:07:PM
Dr Craig is not a pathologist and he never carried out a physical examination of bodies (see the Dickinson report attached). All he did was confirm they were dead. He failed to even notice Sheila had been shot twice. Based on the timings given in the witness statements, he spent less than 15 minutes at the crime scene.

Let's not split hairs, the point I was making is a Dr would know the difference between someone who died let's say at 2am and 7.40-8am


Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 04:11:PM
Dr Craig is not a pathologist and he never carried out a physical examination of bodies (see the Dickinson report attached). All he did was confirm they were dead. He failed to even notice Sheila had been shot twice. Based on the timings given in the witness statements, he spent less than 15 minutes at the crime scene.

Did he FAIL to notice or he simply mentioned a shot. As far as I am aware he did the same for other victims too, June. And she was shot multiple times or did the Police shoot her too?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 04:14:PM
The raid teams in their statements states seeing Sheila's  two GSWs. Are they all lying too?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 01, 2022, 04:39:PM
The raid teams in their statements states seeing Sheila's  two GSWs. Are they all lying too?

Could be re-typed statements - how many are signed and have the originals ever been disclosed?  Mike Tesko used to argue that most TFG refused to testify at trial, however, I don't know upon what basis that claim was made.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 04:40:PM
Here is how I currently believe Jeremy committed the shootings, if he is guilty.

1. Assumptions

I make the assumption that the crime is premeditated.  I do also have a 'spontaneous violence' scenario, but that is for another time.  It follows that the Jeremy who carries out the massacre in this scenario is deranged and evil.

One important feature of this scenario is that Sheila does not have to be moved from her bedroom to the master bedroom.  I am of the view that if Jeremy did this, Sheila had to be killed either in her own bedroom or the master bedroom, but without being moved from one to the other.  You will see how it happens in my scenario, if you read on.  What I posit here resolves major problems with the prosecution case that an honest person must confront and grapple with.  It means there is no perambulating Sheila, no need to explain Sheila at all.  Her involvement is relegated entirely to passivity - and, I believe, in a way that is at least plausible.  It also resolves a major problem with the blood evidence and crime scene sequencing concerning Nevill.  His blood is not needed in the master bedroom and he does not have to be upstairs at all.

Jeremy does not use the bicycle to go to and from the farm.  I suspect he did bring the bicycle back to the farmhouse at some point prior to the incident, perhaps with June's knowledge, under the guise that it would be used by Julie but in fact with the intention of using it on the night of the 6th./7th.  In the end, he decides against cycling, realising a ladies' push bike of that type would not be very practicable on the route he intends to take.

I also have Jeremy carrying out the massacre without the silencer.  I believe the preponderance of evidence is strongly against the use of a silencer in these shootings.  I think Jeremy would have considered using the silencer, as it would have benefits, but in the end he realised that the shooting should only last a few minutes and therefore on balance the ease-of-use of not having a silencer would be preferred over the advantages of sound suppression. 

You may draw whatever conclusions you like about my likely thoughts on the extended family's actions, based on my decision to omit a silencer from this scenario.  I will add nothing more as I do not wish to be sued for libel.  Such matters are extraneous to the thread anyway.

If Jeremy is guilty, I do not believe he planned the phone call from Nevill and his own call to the police.  I think his original intention was to just turn up the following morning and find them all dead.  He made the phone calls up 'on the hoof' that night after Nevill ended up in the kitchen.  Rightly or wrongly, Jeremy reasoned that there needed to be an explanation for why Nevill was found away from the rest of the family.  For those who doubt me on this point, I ask you to stop and consider it logically: Jeremy can't plan Nevill ending up in the kitchen!  It's next-to-impossible, so here I offer some emergency caulkhead. Unless Jeremy can improvise in this way, we are left with another major hole in the prosecution case.

I do not have Jeremy switching handsets around.  I think that has always been a red herring.  It was a theory propounded by the late journalist and miscarriage of justice campaigner, Bob Woffinden, as an explanation for his switch to a guilty stance in the Bamber case, but I took apart Woffinden's reasoning in a previous thread (last year, I think).

I believe Nevill died last.

2. Background

Jeremy is determined to kill his parents.  He plots to do this himself, but he also thinks about the possibility of inciting Sheila to do it, believing that her mental illness may make her vulnerable to suggestion.  Jeremy reasons that with his parents out of the way and Sheila institutionalised, he can accept potentially sharing his inheritance with Colin and ultimately the twins as they will be easier to influence.

Jeremy even considers inciting Colin and rants about his parents to Colin on the night of 3rd. August 1985 at a housewarming party.  Jeremy's imprecations fall on stony ground with Colin.  While Colin dislikes June in particular, he is equally put-off by Jeremy's obnoxious attitude.

Jeremy has been formulating a more ambitious plan in his mind in which he kills his parents and makes it look like Sheila has run amok.  This increasingly seems workable during July and early August as Sheila's mental state declines.  Jeremy is quite proud of this plan and how clever he is.  Then, at the housewarming party, he hears Colin mention that Sheila and the twins will be staying at the farm for a week or so.  Jeremy realises this is his chance to wipe out the entire family, including the twins, and decides he will put the plan into effect.  He hopes that maybe Colin might stay at the farmhouse too.

3. The scenario

It is 6th. August 1985, at White House Farm.  Sheila is in a bad way and Nevill and June are worried she will now have to be sectioned.  They would like to see more of the twins and decide to broach the topic of childcare with Sheila with a view to arranging a permanent move for her to the local area, perhaps living at Bourtree Cottage, with Jeremy moving in to the cottage at Gardeners Farm.  They hope this change of scene will improve her condition.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Jeremy is collecting combined rape from the front field and bringing it in the trailer to the barn for processing.  The field is next to the house and every now and then he stops by the kitchen to listen in on a conversation at the kitchen table between Nevill, June and Sheila.  Jeremy is studying Sheila carefully and notes that she seems quite moody and lethargic.   

Jeremy takes the rifle out and loads it on the pretext that he is to shoot some rabbits.  He tests the rifle by firing one shot.  He then returns and leaves the rifle in the gun cupboard, still loaded.  This is necessary as he does not want his father messing around with the rifle and leaving it somewhere else.

Jeremy finishes work at 9.30 p.m., having agreed with his father that Nevill will collect in the last trailer of combined rape.  Len Foakes then sees Nevill come out to do just that.

Jeremy is keen to get away because he needs to prepare for the night ahead.

At 10 p.m., Jeremy calls Julie Mugford.  If Julie is his accomplice, then the purpose of this call is to signal the go-ahead for the plan that night and to make Julie aware she will receive a call later.  If Julie is not his accomplice, then the purpose of the call is to help support the idea that Jeremy is at Bourtree Cottage, not White House Farm.

Jeremy purposefully spends the next two or so hours watching TV.

At 10.05 p.m., Pamela Boutflour calls June and speaks to Sheila as well.  After the call with Pamela, Sheila retires to bed.  The twins are still awake and she decides to read them a story on the bed in the master bedroom while waiting for June to come up.  One of the twins brings a cuddly toy which he places on the bed.

June then retires to bed and Sheila is very tired and decides to sleep in the main bed alongside her mother, to be near the twins.

Nevill does not finish work until 11 p.m. and is obviously tired.  He knows that Sheila may be sleeping in the master bedroom to be near the twins and does not wish to disturb June, Sheila or the twins at this late hour, so stays downstairs.  His clothes are obviously grimy, sweaty and dirty, so he undresses and showers, then changes into pyjamas and perhaps makes himself a drink in the lounge or at the decanter set in the kitchen.  He intends to sleep in the den, or maybe the upstairs office at the far north end of the house.

At around midnight, when it is dark, Jeremy sneaks out of Bourtree Cottage and Goldhanger on foot, taking a route he has planned in advance.  He is dressed in dark clothing and wearing a hood and/or balaclava.  He is careful and it takes him some 50 minutes to reach the environs of White House Farm. 

Jeremy climbs through the window at about 1 a.m.  He makes a bit of a clatter.  Nevill is still quite alert in the lounge and hears something, so gets up to investigate.  Meanwhile, Jeremy makes his way to the den, takes out the rifle and some spare ammunition and makes his way back to the kitchen.  By this point, Nevill has returned to the lounge, having found nothing.

Oblivious to Nevill, Jeremy climbs the main staircase.  Nevill hears him and again gets up to investigate, this time discovering Jeremy, who turns and fires on his father before pursuing him back to the kitchen.
There is perhaps a struggle between the two, but in any event Jeremy gains the upper hand and leaves his father for dead, after firing shots into him. 

Nevill is still alive, barely, and drifts in and out of consciousness over the ensuing hours without moving much.

After negating his father, Jeremy can hear an inquiring voice from upstairs.  He re-loads and climbs the stairs quickly.  Seeing his mother on the main landing, he perhaps fires on her initially from the stair landing.  She staggers back into the master bedroom, and he then kills her.

Sheila is just waking and is confused and tired.  Jeremy quickly seizes her, pulls her off the bed and on to the floor, then shoots her in the neck area.  She does not have time to think or struggle.  He assumes she is dead.

Jeremy then re-loads, perhaps having to return to the den, from where he brings some ammunition into the kitchen.  He returns upstairs and now kills the twins.

Jeremy then returns to the master bedroom.  He leaves the Bible near Sheila, and then moves to place the rifle on or near her body.  It is at this point he realises she is still alive.  Jeremy now makes two mistakes.  He decides to shoot her again, to make sure, rather than suffocate her.  A two-shot suicide will always raise suspicion.  Having made that decision, he compounds one error with another by not partially re-loading the magazine (either before or after, it wouldn't have mattered), instead he spends the breech cartridge and leaves the magazine empty.  A related problem, arising from the first mistake, is that when shooting Sheila again, Jeremy does not fire at an angle roughly consistent with the first shot, with the consequence that he leaves a large triangulation between the two shots - which is inevitably suspicious when you consider the size of the weapon and the likely physical acuities of Sheila herself.  Yet this mistake was probably unavoidable once the first mistake was made.  Peter Venezis' evidence was, I believe, correct in this respect, in that Sheila was first shot when sitting up slightly.  In this scenario, that means that as Jeremy is pinning her down, he quickly fires, maybe rashly or inadvertently, having not quite got her into a flat position because she is beginning to struggle.

It is now roughly 1.45 a.m.  Jeremy has transfer bloodstains on him, so before he leaves, he changes clothes - borrowing some of Nevill's.  He also takes a small bag or rucksack and uses this to remove the stained clothing from the scene.  He then realises that he may have a problem.  Nevill is in the kitchen, away from the rest of the family.  He hadn't planned for this.  Won't there be questions about how Nevill got there, away from his own family, without simply disarming Sheila?  Won't there be questions about why Nevill didn't use the phone or flee for the den, or exit the house?  (In the event, we can ask these questions anyway about the case against Jeremy, but that's another discussion and has already been covered in previous threads).

I'm not necessarily suggesting Jeremy is mentally sharp enough to formulate these questions, as such, in his head there and then, but he has a general sense of the issues he may face once investigators come on the scene, due to Nevill being found at the other side of the house.  Jeremy decides that he needs to have Nevill make a phone call from the kitchen to someone else.  He can't create a 999 call because that would bring the emergency services to the location very quickly, perhaps immediately, and he also assumes such calls may be recorded or may involve him having to stay on the line for an extended period of time until police responders arrive; and anyway, he is not confident he can throw Nevill's voice.  (He may even have first tried making a 999 call, then thought better of it, and this may serve to explain why the Jeremy of today is so confident a 999 call was made.  It was an abortive call and nothing was said because he hung up immediately, but he may imagine there is a record of it somewhere). 

Jeremy then remembers that there is an answerphone connected to his phone line at Bourtree Cottage and a further plan forms in his mind, which he decides is quite clever.  He dials the number for Bourtree Cottage and the answerphone kicks in.  He then leaves the phone off the hook.  He finally departs the farmhouse at around 2.10 a.m. and makes his way back to Goldhanger by the route he came, now in quite a hurry, but still being quite careful. Along the way, he finds a discreet place just outside Goldhanger to hide the bag/rucksack for retrieval after dark during the forthcoming evening. Probably the south end of Fish Street, at a guess, if I know that part of Goldhanger right.

He makes it back to Bourtree Cottage by just before 3 a.m.  It is just turning to early twilight, still dark.

You may think Jeremy took a huge risk leaving the cottage at all due to the potential for being seen, and you would be right, but Jeremy reasons this out in his mind and decides that if he is seen on the way out or on the way back, he will say it was a burglar or intruder or somebody like that, and he suddenly also reassures himself that if he is seen on the way back, he can try to mix-up the times and conflate the sighting with him leaving after alerting the police, which is what he now intends to do.  In any event, he decides he can talk his way out of it.

At Bourtree Cottage, Jeremy is slightly confused about what to do next as he has complexified his own plans (perhaps needlessly).  Thinking quickly, he disconnects the answerphone and resolves to hide it somewhere in the house and dispose of it later that evening at the same time he goes to collect the incriminating bag.  He then quickly rings Julie Mugford.  It is now, maybe, 3.15 a.m.  He speaks to her relatively briefly.  If Julie is his accomplice, then this call would have been made anyway.  Collecting his thoughts, he then decides he needs to call the police, and events then follow the official narrative, with Jeremy speaking to PC Michael West at approximately 3.25 a.m.

For the purpose of building this scenario, I do not propose to explain why Jeremy would go to the effort of calling local police rather than simply dial 999.  There is a healthy argument that if Jeremy is guilty it is in his better interests to dial 999, and I am unconvinced by the arguments in the other direction typically trotted out by guilters.  Certainly, if Jeremy is guilty, his decision looks esoteric, but it may simply be down to his own impaired thinking in an unplanned situation.

Nevill is still alive until about 7 a.m. or so as the police are outside.  Possibly Sheila is also still alive.  But both are grievously injured.

In his story to the police, Jeremy mixes truth, fact and lies, telling them about the kitchen table conversation but also saying he left the rifle out in the scullery.  He remembers that he had left ammunition on the kitchen worktop, and realises that fits his narrative well as it makes it that bit easier for Sheila to load the weapon.

4. The firing order

My scenario requires Jeremy to reload twice (loading three times in all), each time charging the weapon fully by making up the magazine to 10 cartridges, totalling 11 cartridges - i.e. 10 in the magazine, one in the breech.  We have to assume this because it is a low calibre rifle.  Consequently, one problem I have is making the cartridge count work and I have had to add more spent cartridges than I think were discovered, along with a test fire.

We assume Jeremy starts with a full magazine of 10 cartridges plus one cartridge in the breech, i.e. 11 cartridges.

First Fusillade                       Shots on target       Wasted bullets                Remaining cartridges
                                                                                                                         Total  (Magazine)

First load                                                                                                     11       (10)   

TEST FIRE                                         0                              1                                 10       (9)                                                                                                                     

NEVILL                                              8                              0                                   2       (1)

First re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                             11       (10)

Second Fusillade     

JUNE                                                 7                              1                                 3         (2)

SHEILA                                             1                               0                                 2         (1)

Second re-load: 9 cartridges                                                                         11        (10)

Third Fusillade

DANIEL                                             5                               1                                5         (4)

NICHOLAS                                         3                               1                                1         (0)

SHEILA                                              1                               0                                0         (0)
 
                                                    25                            4     

5. Variation on this scenario

Nevill ending up in the kitchen is a big problem for Jeremy in this scenario, however I have thought of a variation on it in which Jeremy overhears Nevill mention at the kitchen table that evening that he will be out late and will sleep downstairs so as not to wake the others.  It may even have been discussed that Sheila would "again" sleep in the master bedroom, so as to be near the twins.  (Of course, Jeremy may also have been aware that Nevill sometimes slept downstairs, especially at that time of year, and anticipated this - perhaps intending to kill Nevill last, or first).

In that case, Jeremy would not lure Nevill upstairs.  You would also think that Jeremy would not invent the phone call, he would simply tell the police that Nevill's habit was to sleep downstairs, including when Sheila is asleep in the main bedroom.  That is what I believed at first, but then I realised there is a flaw in it, which is that Jeremy would then need to explain how it is that Sheila gets up and out of the main bedroom without disturbing June and how she gets hold of the rifle without alerting Nevill.  This may seem only a small problem, but in Jeremy's mind it may have loomed large and led him down a course of logical-intuitive reasoning to invent the phone call and pretend that Nevill was upstairs initially, Sheila was in her own bedroom, and Nevill followed Sheila downstairs.  You may think I am over-crediting Jeremy and he would not think of these things, but I think he could, as they are at root intuitive points that may occur to somebody in that situation.

This variation is only a change in Jeremy's rationalisations for his own actions at the scene.  It doesn't alter the technical details, including the firing order given in section 4 above.                   

Mr Bamber was shot four times upstairs evidenced by the casings.

Mrs Bamber was shot initially with her head on her pillow evidenced by the tracks of two of her gunshot wounds which correspond with exited bullets embedded in her pillow.

The fact the rifle is low calibre is irrelevant.  I have explained the lethality of the firearm to you previously by providing mathematical calculations based on the physics.

I have no idea what you mean by 'wasted bullets'?

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 04:43:PM
Mr Bamber was shot four times upstairs evidenced by the casings.

Mrs Bamber was shot initially with her head on her pillow evidenced by the tracks of two of her gunshot wounds which correspond with exited bullets embedded in her pillow.

The fact the rifle is low calibre is irrelevant.  I have explained the lethality of the firearm to you previously by providing mathematical calculations based on the physics.

I have no idea what you mean by 'wasted bullets'?

Also a total of 30 bullets were found on the kitchen top.  A full box contains 50.  A total of 26 were fired during the shootings.  Bamber's strongest subject at school was supposedly maths.  In any event it doesn't fit his narrative as you claim. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 01, 2022, 04:49:PM
If its not utter nonsense what are you relying on as evidence to show that Sheila died significantly later than the other victims?





My eyes ! Compare pics of june and Nevill and Sheila.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 01, 2022, 04:58:PM
Could be re-typed statements - how many are signed and have the originals ever been disclosed?  Mike Tesko used to argue that most TFG refused to testify at trial, however, I don't know upon what basis that claim was made.

I am open to suggestions. Unfortunately claims alone is no good.

Burden of proof lies on the ones making the claim. I am open minded, I believe and happy to be proved wrong but until then it's a conspiracy . Mind you I love a good  conspiracy reading one of Lady Di now, our very own Peter Vanezis is mentioned few times in the book 😁
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 05:09:PM
Could be re-typed statements - how many are signed and have the originals ever been disclosed?  Mike Tesko used to argue that most TFG refused to testify at trial, however, I don't know upon what basis that claim was made.
Quote

In which direction are you suggesting that they may have been retyped, Roch? A wound added, or a wound subtracted? Providing one or two members of the TFG testified, it's of no relevance what the others did. Mike has made many claims, the origins of which are often quite mysterious, and usually untraceable.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 05:23:PM
My eyes ! Compare pics of june and Nevill and Sheila.

With respect Lookout, and regardless of any nursing experience, you want us to believe that you can see something in authentic crime images that two highly qualified pathologists of long experience overlooked, including those at scene who also had the benefit of reviewing the images: a police surgeon and numerous officers ranging from a chief superintendent to constables with hundreds of years combined experience? 

Surely you can see that what you're asserting simply does not stand up? 

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 01, 2022, 07:50:PM
With respect Lookout, and regardless of any nursing experience, you want us to believe that you can see something in authentic crime images that two highly qualified pathologists of long experience overlooked, including those at scene who also had the benefit of reviewing the images: a police surgeon and numerous officers ranging from a chief superintendent to constables with hundreds of years combined experience? 

Surely you can see that what you're asserting simply does not stand up?

Most of the images are of very poor quality and questionable colour levels too.

However, I would say that the police bungling has left too much scope for speculation and uncertainty here.

Another aspect is Sheila's undigested stomach contents which were not analysed. If her last meal was at 9.30pm, she was dead by 2-3.am as it only takes 5 hours for the stomach to empty ( as I understand ) - Thus any Sheila scenario has to include her up having a snack in the small hours.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 08:28:PM
Most of the images are of very poor quality and questionable colour levels too.

However, I would say that the police bungling has left too much scope for speculation and uncertainty here.

Another aspect is Sheila's undigested stomach contents which were not analysed. If her last meal was at 9.30pm, she was dead by 2-3.am as it only takes 5 hours for the stomach to empty ( as I understand ) - Thus any Sheila scenario has to include her up having a snack in the small hours.

Are you referring to the images in the public domain?  The pathologist for the defence did not complain about the quality. 

As far as I can see the only speculation and uncertainty over Sheila dying later than the other victims emanates from supporters.  No professional has ever claimed such and lawyers haven't challenged on Bamber's behalf.

Dr Vanezis deals with the contents of Sheila's stomach in Carol Ann Lee's book.  He said it was the same for all victims but he just noted it for Sheila.  Again all this was fact checked by Prof Knight for the defence at trial.

There's not a shred of evidence Sheila died significantly later than the other victims just a lot of nonsense from supporters. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 01, 2022, 08:55:PM
Are you referring to the images in the public domain?  The pathologist for the defence did not complain about the quality. 

As far as I can see the only speculation and uncertainty over Sheila dying later than the other victims emanates from supporters.  No professional has ever claimed such and lawyers haven't challenged on Bamber's behalf.

Dr Vanezis deals with the contents of Sheila's stomach in Carol Ann Lee's book.  He said it was the same for all victims but he just noted it for Sheila.  Again all this was fact checked by Prof Knight for the defence at trial.

There's not a shred of evidence Sheila died significantly later than the other victims just a lot of nonsense from supporters.

Yes, the ones in the public domain, or more specifically, this site. Unless I have missed some, the only photo's of June are impossible to compare with the better ones of Sheila and there are no angles that would show livor mortis on Sheila.

I am agreeing with you that there is no evidence that Sheila died later than the others but it has to be said that if the police had taken body temperatures or analysed SC's stomach contents, it would be more difficult to speculate/offer unqualified opinion. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 01, 2022, 09:01:PM
Yes, the ones in the public domain, or more specifically, this site. Unless I have missed some, the only photo's of June are impossible to compare with the better ones of Sheila and there are no angles that would show livor mortis on Sheila.

I am agreeing with you that there is no evidence that Sheila died later than the others but it has to be said that if the police had taken body temperatures or analysed SC's stomach contents, it would be more difficult to speculate/offer unqualified opinion.

Unfortunately I think that might be wishful thinking.  Even if we had body temps confirming victims all died around the same time, supporters would say the results were fudged or there was some problem with the accuracy of the thermometer.   :(
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 01, 2022, 09:03:PM
Yes, the ones in the public domain, or more specifically, this site. Unless I have missed some, the only photo's of June are impossible to compare with the better ones of Sheila and there are no angles that would show livor mortis on Sheila.

I am agreeing with you that there is no evidence that Sheila died later than the others but it has to be said that if the police had taken body temperatures or analysed SC's stomach contents, it would be more difficult to speculate/offer unqualified opinion.

The problem with that is the "certifying" GP is only there to pronounce life extinct. Taking anal temperatures would require him disturbing the crime scene.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 01, 2022, 09:21:PM
Unfortunately I think that might be wishful thinking.  Even if we had body temps confirming victims all died around the same time, supporters would say the results were fudged or there was some problem with the accuracy of the thermometer.   :(

Yes that's true. Supporters aren't satisfied with a reasonable doubt, they must always be looking for proof of innocence and confirmation bias does the rest.

The problem with that is the "certifying" GP is only there to pronounce life extinct. Taking anal temperatures would require him disturbing the crime scene.

Agree with that too. It wasn't standard practice and with everyone just assuming it was the murder suicide they had been primed to believe, nobody would have seen the need.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 01, 2022, 11:55:PM
He thinks streaks of bloodstains that dripped on Sheila's right arm (from the gunshot wounds to her neck) are actually fight wounds that June inflicted on Sheila despite being shot five times in bed. Then Vanezis and EP conspired to conceal these from day one.  :-[

If I had to believe in a conspiracy theory involving EP. It would be them sending in Bill Robertson as a saboteur to spread crazy ideas on this forum and to misdirect the campaign team. Bill could even be an alias for Mick Ainsley!  :o  :))

Saying that the blood and marks everywhere on Sheila are from her gunshot wounds is just plain daft.  You cannot even describe how it could have been deposited in all the different places and in all the different forms it took.  You're trying to use the gunshot wounds as an explanation for everything. 

The funniest thing is, you believe Sheila is the killer. So you believe she shot to death five people (including herself) and including clubbing one of them, in the middle of the night, in a cluttered house full of furniture - yet managed to avoid even so much as a scrape. 

Your views are not credible and do not match the actual evidence.  If you persist in this stubborn silliness - you'll only end up getting your arse handed to you.  The fight wounds on the adults are verified and are within the submissions.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 12:43:AM
Some who have used this gun will not agree to the one I have in bold.

What fight wounds? Evidence of this please. Thanks

Boyce displayed how easy it was to use in 2012, on ITV.

Evidence is in the negatives. Negatives were released to the defence via the CCRC, after a gruelling campaign to obtain them. Needless to say, EP dragged their heels. If the defence had done their job properly in 1985/6, they might have been able to force EP to show all negatives then. What they did view, they did so hastily.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 09:07:AM
Saying that the blood and marks everywhere on Sheila are from her gunshot wounds is just plain daft.  You cannot even describe how it could have been deposited in all the different places and in all the different forms it took.  You're trying to use the gunshot wounds as an explanation for everything. 

The funniest thing is, you believe Sheila is the killer. So you believe she shot to death five people (including herself) and including clubbing one of them, in the middle of the night, in a cluttered house full of furniture - yet managed to avoid even so much as a scrape. 

Your views are not credible and do not match the actual evidence.  If you persist in this stubborn silliness - you'll only end up getting your arse handed to you.  The fight wounds on the adults are verified and are within the submissions.

Yes, impossible.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 09:16:AM
The only person who didn't have signs of a fight/struggle etc was JB himself ? Not even a scratch, when the first killings would have been the children. There were 3 adults who would have fought to have prevented those boys from being injured/ killed. What happened ? Describe why and not in the obvious simple fashion that guilters can only answer.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 09:20:AM
Are you referring to the images in the public domain?  The pathologist for the defence did not complain about the quality. 

As far as I can see the only speculation and uncertainty over Sheila dying later than the other victims emanates from supporters.  No professional has ever claimed such and lawyers haven't challenged on Bamber's behalf.

Dr Vanezis deals with the contents of Sheila's stomach in Carol Ann Lee's book.  He said it was the same for all victims but he just noted it for Sheila.  Again all this was fact checked by Prof Knight for the defence at trial.

There's not a shred of evidence Sheila died significantly later than the other victims just a lot of nonsense from supporters.


PC Bird started taking photographs around 10.00 and finished just after midday so that is a minimum of around seven hours after Sheila apparently died, many people say the killings were around 2 am so could be around eight hours assuming Sheila was photographed first?

Rigour mortis usually starts around two to six hours after death and effects the small muscles first. I found the following extract interesting:

Rigor normally appears within the body around two hours after the deceased has passed away with – as we have already mentioned – the facial and upper neck and shoulder muscles first to visibly suffer from its effects. Many Scenes of Crime Officers (SOCO) have reported that upon discovering the deceased that their face might have taken on what looks to be a grimace; this is because the facial muscles have contracted as ATP drains from them.

Roch has also posted that Italian professors also stated that Sheila's time of death is consistent with being when the Police smashed their way into the house at 7.30. 






Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 09:21:AM
Yes, impossible.

Highly unlikely - which is why from the outset of the Ainsley era, such wounds presented a potential disaster to his instructions from Simpson and Robert.  Should we admire Ainsley for being utterly ruthless - or - should we regard Rivlin's defence as utterly useless? 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 09:58:AM
No professional has ever claimed such and lawyers haven't challenged on Bamber's behalf.

Italian medical professionals did. I believe Calvani and Meloni? Are Italian professionals not as good as English ones? I thought we had moved on from that train of thought.  GDS probably did argue the case for a later time. GDS is an easy target for disdain - that doesn't mean he is wrong though. He has since gone on record saying something like a million percent Bamber is innocent. He may be a rogue but I quite like him.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 10:28:AM
Unfortunately I think that might be wishful thinking.  Even if we had body temps confirming victims all died around the same time, supporters would say the results were fudged or there was some problem with the accuracy of the thermometer.   :(

HAHA , no laughing matter but they will though. True Story...
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 10:33:AM
Boyce displayed how easy it was to use in 2012, on ITV.

Evidence is in the negatives. Negatives were released to the defence via the CCRC, after a gruelling campaign to obtain them. Needless to say, EP dragged their heels. If the defence had done their job properly in 1985/6, they might have been able to force EP to show all negatives then. What they did view, they did so hastily.

Boyce for the Defence is going to say that, isn't he? I have seen that clip and still disagee. Yes it's easy for those that have used THAT gun. Sheila hadn't.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 10:46:AM
The only person who didn't have signs of a fight/struggle etc was JB himself ? Not even a scratch, when the first killings would have been the children. There were 3 adults who would have fought to have prevented those boys from being injured/ killed. What happened ? Describe why and not in the obvious simple fashion that guilters can only answer.

None on Sheila either. Bamber would have been fully covered and wearing gloves, he is well protected. The only place the marks would have been obvious was if he was attacked/ scratched on his gorgeous  face. Think about it.
 
Imo, Nevill and June were already in a bad state after the first few shots, it was in quick succession so not enough time for combat. No match to the gun wielding Bamber. Bamber was not checked if he had any marks and why should the Police do that anyways? He was no suspect at this stage.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 10:56:AM
None on Sheila either. Bamber would have been fully covered and wearing gloves, he is well protected. The only place the marks would have been obvious was if he was attacked/ scratched on his gorgeous  face. Think about it.
 
Imo, Nevill and June were already in a bad state after the first few shots, it was in quick succession so not enough time for combat. No match to the gun wielding Bamber. Bamber was not checked if he had any marks and why should the Police do that anyways? He was no suspect at this stage.

"Already in a bad state"!!! You bet they were, and not just physically. Imagine the psychological impact when the realization dawns that it's the child you took into your lives and provided for, who is hell bent on killing you! I truly believe he'd have wanted them to know who it was who was wielding the gun. I think he'd have wanted them to know why they had to die. I think he'd have wanted them to hear about how he hated the life the were forcing him to lead. It would have fuelled the anger he was feeling, spurring him on. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 11:07:AM
"Already in a bad state"!!! You bet they were, and not just physically. Imagine the psychological impact when the realization dawns that it's the child you took into your lives and provided for, who is hell bent on killing you! I truly believe he'd have wanted them to know who it was who was wielding the gun. I think he'd have wanted them to know why they had to die. I think he'd have wanted them to hear about how he hated the life the were forcing him to lead. It would have fuelled the anger he was feeling, spurring him on.

Chilling 😔
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: JackieD on January 02, 2022, 11:16:AM
"Already in a bad state"!!! You bet they were, and not just physically. Imagine the psychological impact when the realization dawns that it's the child you took into your lives and provided for, who is hell bent on killing you! I truly believe he'd have wanted them to know who it was who was wielding the gun. I think he'd have wanted them to know why they had to die. I think he'd have wanted them to hear about how he hated the life the were forcing him to lead. It would have fuelled the anger he was feeling, spurring him on.


As usual in YOUR opinion. Just incase it hasn’t sunk in yet this is a forum to DEBATE miscarriages of justice. Not for you to promote your friends ideas because at THIS MOMENT thousands of pounds are investigating the case for numerous reason which you are fully aware
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 11:24:AM

As usual in YOUR opinion. Just incase it hasn’t sunk in yet this is a forum to DEBATE miscarriages of justice. Not for you to promote your friends ideas because at THIS MOMENT thousands of pounds are investigating the case for numerous reason which you are fully aware

Had you fully understood what I said, you'd have noted that I said "I believe" and "I think". They are MY thoughts. Were I to promote others' thoughts, I would claim them to be such. Nowhere do I claim it to be other than MY opinion. It renders your post, like everything else you say, irrelevant.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 11:25:AM

As usual in YOUR opinion. Just incase it hasn’t sunk in yet this is a forum to DEBATE miscarriages of justice. Not for you to promote your friends ideas because at THIS MOMENT thousands of pounds are investigating the case for numerous reason which you are fully aware

Good morning Jackie

But isn't it just our OPINION? Including your's? Unless we were present and had been the witness to the crime yes it's just our opinion which will differ from our own understanding of the case. No one is right or wrong in that context.

I think the debate/forum is about the Bamber case in general and not  whether it is MOJ or not.

Correct thousands of pounds, your's and my money. Unfortunately...
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: JackieD on January 02, 2022, 11:55:AM
Good morning Jackie

But isn't it just our OPINION? Including your's? Unless we were present and had been the witness to the crime yes it's just our opinion which will differ from our own understanding of the case. No one is right or wrong in that context.

I think the debate/forum is about the Bamber case in general and not  whether it is MOJ or not.

Correct thousands of pounds, your's and my money. Unfortunately...

When thousands of public money is being spent on another huge investigation into the case I and every tax payer deserves full transparency. There is not a single reason why Jeremy’s solicitors do not deserve to have full transparency

There is another documentary being commissioned as we speak and if this shows the case from start to finish there will be more than enough pressure to proof this is an unsafe conviction

Nobody has got close to broadcasting the full details of the case, evidence and witnesses
It will be the biggest true crime documentary about a British case but won’t be produced in this country for obvious reasons but will be broadcast worldwide
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 12:08:PM
Italian medical professionals did. I believe Calvani and Meloni? Are Italian professionals not as good as English ones? I thought we had moved on from that train of thought.  GDS probably did argue the case for a later time. GDS is an easy target for disdain - that doesn't mean he is wrong though. He has since gone on record saying something like a million percent Bamber is innocent. He may be a rogue but I quite like him.

Nothing to do with where professionals originate from or place of residence but the quality of evidence and the reliability of those involved with it!   

GDS is a bogus lawyer and convicted fraudster currently a guest at HMP.  First we have to put aside justifiable reservations about his reliability given his background. Second we have to ask ourselves why two eminent British pathologists overlooked what the Italian pathologists are claiming decades later! 

GDS saying this, that or the other is meaningless.  He is no more qualified to offer up opinion than you or I.

I don't know why you struggle to identify who is reliable and who isn't.  You seem to write off prof Knight for the defence and instead rely on 'Bill' and GDS and those he has probably duped. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 12:12:PM
Nothing to do with where professionals originate from or place of residence but the quality of evidence and the reliability of those involved with it!   

GDS is a bogus lawyer and convicted fraudster currently a guest at HMP.  First we have to put aside justifiable reservations about his reliability given his background. Second we have to ask ourselves why two eminent British pathologists overlooked what the Italian pathologists are claiming decades later! 

GDS saying this, that or the other is meaningless.  He is no more qualified to offer up opinion than you or I.

I don't know why you struggle to identify who is reliable and who isn't.  You seem to write off prof Knight for the defence and instead rely on 'Bill' and GDS and those he has probably duped.

Bamber certainly attracts them: bogus lawyer and convicted fraudster and now a paedophile apologist. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 12:52:PM
Bamber certainly attracts them: bogus lawyer and convicted fraudster and now a paedophile apologist.

Meanwhile, we live in a country where a former prime minister who took us to war on a pack of lives, causing mass death and destruction, is given a knighthood.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 01:00:PM
Meanwhile, we live in a country where a former prime minister who took us to war on a pack of lives, causing mass death and destruction, is given a knighthood.

Leaders have to make decisions.  Sometimes they get it wrong.  In Blair's case he was over reliant on intelligence that was clearly wrong. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 01:06:PM
Meanwhile, we live in a country where a former prime minister who took us to war on a pack of lives, causing mass death and destruction, is given a knighthood.





Hear hear Roch, how disgusting is that. I nearly died.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: JackieD on January 02, 2022, 01:08:PM
Meanwhile, we live in a country where a former prime minister who took us to war on a pack of lives, causing mass death and destruction, is given a knighthood.

Unforgivable, I actually couldn’t believe it when I read that
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 01:09:PM




Hear hear Roch, how disgusting is that. I nearly died.

Not worth such a sacrifice, Lookout!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 01:20:PM
Leaders have to make decisions.  Sometimes they get it wrong.  In Blair's case he was over reliant on intelligence that was clearly wrong.

I'm sure all the victims will take great comfort from your assessment.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 01:21:PM
Unforgivable, I actually couldn’t believe it when I read that

It's vomit-worthy Jackie and tells you all you need to know about 'Great Britain'.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 01:26:PM
A grandson of mine was sent to war in Iraq. Fortunately he survived but saw 4 of his mates blown up in a roadside bomb.
He was made a sergeant and is now, if he already hasn't gone, joining other troops in the Ukraine.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 01:28:PM
I'm sure all the victims will take great comfort from your assessment.

I wouldn't expect them to.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 01:34:PM
The system invariably seems to honour those who've done bad. One person that springs to mind was that arrogant article paediatrician Meadows the supposed professor who sent women to their graves through wrongly accusing them of killing their children.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 01:46:PM
A grandson of mine was sent to war in Iraq. Fortunately he survived but saw 4 of his mates blown up in a roadside bomb.
He was made a sergeant and is now, if he already hasn't gone, joining other troops in the Ukraine.

He and his mates should never have been put in that position. According to Cambridge Cutie though, it's down to poor intelligence sources and the need to make decisions.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 01:53:PM
Mr Bamber was shot four times upstairs evidenced by the casings.

Mrs Bamber was shot initially with her head on her pillow evidenced by the tracks of two of her gunshot wounds which correspond with exited bullets embedded in her pillow.

The fact the rifle is low calibre is irrelevant.  I have explained the lethality of the firearm to you previously by providing mathematical calculations based on the physics.

I have no idea what you mean by 'wasted bullets'?

As with much of what you say on here, you are half-clever.

The position of the spent cartridges found can only be considered a rough guide, at best.  Quite simply, there is no reliable evidence that Nevill was shot upstairs or that he went upstairs at all that night.

I don't accept that a bullet or bullet hole in a pillow proves that June was shot while still in bed.  The bed was in the line of sight of shots, and bullets can hit the bed as well as they can hit people.

I do not say that a low calibre rifle is non-lethal, but low calibre is typically not as lethal as high calibre.  Obviously it's not simple as there are factors to consider, but calibre of the murder weapon will always be relevant.  As will range of shot and bullet type.  I think Jeremy would have had enough ballistic nous to understand that with a .22 rifle, he needed it fully-loaded and he needed all his targets except Sheila to be in bed, with shots to the head at reasonably close range, while at the same time allowing that he was staging Sheila running amok and needed to bear that in mind too.

This explains the shots to the twins, which were executed efficiently.  The others were not, but he had taken the precaution of filling the magazine.  Frankly, it would have been daft for him to just put half a magazine in. 

Wasted bullets means bullets that did not hit their target.  There were some.

I don't recall you providing mathematical calculations of your own based on physics, but you may have done.  I remember a post from you in which you provided figures from Eley.  By all means, if you link back to the post, I will look at it again.  I can't remember what I said about it when I saw it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 02:02:PM
As with much of what you say on here, you are half-clever.

The position of the spent cartridges found can only be considered a rough guide, at best.  Quite simply, there is no reliable evidence that Nevill was shot upstairs or that he went upstairs at all that night.

I don't accept that a bullet or bullet hole in a pillow proves that June was shot while still in bed.  The bed was in the line of sight of shots, and bullets can hid the bed as well as they can hit people.

I do not say that a low calibre rifle is non-lethal, but low calibre is typically not as lethal as high calibre.  Obviously it's not simple as there are factors to consider, but calibre of the murder weapon will always be relevant.  As will range of shot and bullet type.  I think Jeremy would have had enough ballistic nous to understand that with a .22 rifle, he needed it fully-loaded and he needed all his targets except Sheila to be in bed, with shots to the head at reasonably close range, while at the same time allowing that he was staging Sheila running amok and needed to bear that in mind too.

This explains the shots to the twins, which were executed efficiently.  The others were not, but he had taken the precaution of filling the magazine.  Frankly, it would have been daft for him to just put half a magazine in. 

Wasted bullets means bullets that did not hit their target.  There were some.

I don't recall you providing mathematical calculations of your own based on physics, but you may have done.  I remember a post from you in which you provided figures from Eley.  By all means, if you link back to the post, I will look at it again.  I can't remember what I said about it when I saw it.

He was found bare footed & in pyjamas - bed attire.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 02:04:PM
As with much of what you say on here, you are half-clever.

The position of the spent cartridges found can only be considered a rough guide, at best.  Quite simply, there is no reliable evidence that Nevill was shot upstairs or that he went upstairs at all that night.

I don't accept that a bullet or bullet hole in a pillow proves that June was shot while still in bed.  The bed was in the line of sight of shots, and bullets can hid the bed as well as they can hit people.

I do not say that a low calibre rifle is non-lethal, but low calibre is typically not as lethal as high calibre.  Obviously it's not simple as there are factors to consider, but calibre of the murder weapon will always be relevant.  As will range of shot and bullet type.  I think Jeremy would have had enough ballistic nous to understand that with a .22 rifle, he needed it fully-loaded and he needed all his targets except Sheila to be in bed, with shots to the head at reasonably close range, while at the same time allowing that he was staging Sheila running amok and needed to bear that in mind too.

This explains the shots to the twins, which were executed efficiently.  The others were not, but he had taken the precaution of filling the magazine.  Frankly, it would have been daft for him to just put half a magazine in. 

Wasted bullets means bullets that did not hit their target.  There were some.

I don't recall you providing mathematical calculations of your own based on physics, but you may have done.  I remember a post from you in which you provided figures from Eley.  By all means, if you link back to the post, I will look at it again.  I can't remember what I said about it when I saw it.

There was blood all over June's pillow.

The evidence is she was shot 5 times in bed.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 02:41:PM
When thousands of public money is being spent on another huge investigation into the case I and every tax payer deserves full transparency. There is not a single reason why Jeremy’s solicitors do not deserve to have full transparency

There is another documentary being commissioned as we speak and if this shows the case from start to finish there will be more than enough pressure to proof this is an unsafe conviction

Nobody has got close to broadcasting the full details of the case, evidence and witnesses
It will be the biggest true crime documentary about a British case but won’t be produced in this country for obvious reasons but will be broadcast worldwide

Why hadn't Bamber and his team transparent about why his case was rejected in 2012? Where is the transparency you talk of. As you say we paid for all this so arnt we entitled?

Unless something NEW emerges, they can make as many documentaries as  they like, who cares? The subject matter will be the same, same old same old, going round in circles for entertainment purpose. If Bamber is freed it will be on NEW evidence to CCRC and a referral to COA. His freedom depending on a documentary?  well to that I will say in your favourite word, Hilarious!



Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 02:49:PM
Is the red forum redundant or something ??
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 02:50:PM
Meanwhile, we live in a country where a former prime minister who took us to war on a pack of lives, causing mass death and destruction, is given a knighthood.

Time someone spoke the truth and more people realize. Truth is bitter and hard to swallow sometimes.  I agree with your comment whole heartedly.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 02:58:PM
He was found bare footed & in pyjamas - bed attire.

That point is explained within the scenario.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 03:12:PM
That point is explained within the scenario.

He went to bed?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 03:13:PM
There was blood all over June's pillow.

The evidence is she was shot 5 times in bed.

I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 03:15:PM
When thousands of public money is being spent on another huge investigation into the case I and every tax payer deserves full transparency. There is not a single reason why Jeremy’s solicitors do not deserve to have full transparency

There is another documentary being commissioned as we speak and if this shows the case from start to finish there will be more than enough pressure to proof this is an unsafe conviction

Nobody has got close to broadcasting the full details of the case, evidence and witnesses
It will be the biggest true crime documentary about a British case but won’t be produced in this country for obvious reasons but will be broadcast worldwide

I thought you were going to make a 6 part documentary. Five of the six episodes on Julie.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 03:17:PM
June's body was moved QC---from a sitting position on the floor with the bedroom door keeping her propped up to the splayed-out position flat on her back. The proof being the "brush stroke" of blood against the inside of the door.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 03:19:PM
I thought you were going to make a 6 part documentary. Five of the six episodes on Julie.


There's ALWAYS "another documentary being commissioned", Adam, and with it the hope that the next one will be in favour of JB's innocence. Thus far, that hope has been vain. Perhaps she should think about funding one which meets her requirements?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: JackieD on January 02, 2022, 03:23:PM
Time someone spoke the truth and more people realize. Truth is bitter and hard to swallow sometimes.  I agree with your comment whole heartedly.


Especially forum members that make up stories about having sex in prison . Dont you think
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 03:29:PM
I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

June was shot 5 times. Bamber then used his remaining 4 bullets on Nevill.

June moved while Bamber was in the kitchen.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 03:31:PM
I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

Well he was on June's side of the bed. So shot her first. Confident his remaining 4 shots would kill, disable Nevill. They nearly did.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 03:32:PM

Especially forum members that make up stories about having sex in prison . Dont you think


"Forum members" don't have to make up such stories. It's known, probably well beyond this Forum, that prisons are allowed to enjoy certain "privileges". Much as you probably don't want to hear such, regular sex is believed to calm any anger an aggression. I understand, from where, I can't remember, that JB was once engaged.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 03:40:PM
Time someone spoke the truth and more people realize. Truth is bitter and hard to swallow sometimes.  I agree with your comment whole heartedly.

Thank you Munska. I feel that it is a kick in the teeth for all my fellow UK citizens. A massive V sign held up to our faces.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 03:43:PM
I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

Why an earth would Nevill go upstairs to his bedroom, put his pyjamas on, then go downstairs to sleep?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 03:49:PM
Why an earth would Nevill go upstairs to his bedroom, put his pyjamas on, then go downstairs to sleep?

A valid point, but why not? Or why not have June leave his pyjamas in the downstairs shower room?  Or why not use pyjamas already downstairs, change downstairs and put his clothes in the wash?

Why shouldn't that have been his routine anyway?  He was a busy, hands-on farmer in the middle of a summer harvest.  Would June want him to be going in the main bedroom in dirty clothes?

It's worth thinking about.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 03:51:PM
Thank you Munska. I feel that it is a kick in the teeth for all my fellow UK citizens. A massive V sign held up to our faces.

I get you Roch.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 03:53:PM

Especially forum members that make up stories about having sex in prison . Dont you think

Don't need to make anything up. It's true though.

As childish as it may sound are you Jealous because you wish it was you Jackie? Hehe he
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 04:01:PM
Don't need to make anything up. It's true though.

As childish as it may sound are you Jealous because you wish it was you Jackie? Hehe he

No chance in a Cat A Munksa, unless he is so well hung he can do it from the other side of the table?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:03:PM
I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

There is no evidence they did.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 04:09:PM
There IS evidence that June's body had been moved to the dorsal / supine position from sitting propped up against the bedroom door.l
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 04:09:PM
No chance in a Cat A Munksa, unless he is so well hung he can do it from the other side of the table?

Rob, I do find such very inhumane. given that back in the 60s, ladies, residents of our local Psych hospital, were taken down the road to the male facility to spend the night. This was done, purely on the grounds that regular sex was known to have a calming effect on the men. Naturally, all the ladies were fitted with contraceptive devices, or fed the contraceptive pill as part of their daily meds routine. How much more important is it to keep long term prisoners' equilibrium balanced?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 02, 2022, 04:10:PM
No chance in a Cat A Munksa, unless he is so well hung he can do it from the other side of the table?

Rob this was around 1991-1992. He was not CAT A then.  The same year he celebrated is birthday with his fellow  inmates with food they cooked. Bamber made pineapple upside down cake.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:17:PM
There IS evidence that June's body had been moved to the dorsal / supine position from sitting propped up against the bedroom door.l

Please supply it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 04:18:PM
I've realised there is a flaw in my scenario in that if Jeremy uses an answerphone as suggested, that would then pinpoint the call at a particular time that would, in turn, make it impossible for Jeremy to then call the police from Bourtree Cottage within, say, 10 minutes of the alert from Nevill.

I think this is a point that has to be researched further because I don't remember how 1980s phones worked.  Is there anybody else here who knows the answer and can provide reliable sources?

Here we are assuming that Jeremy decides he has to stage a call (rather than just make one up), and notwithstanding that billing was non-itemised at that time, he assumes that there may be a way of pinpointing when calls are made, so he has to take precautions.

The obvious thing for Jeremy to do in this situation would be to:

(i). ring Bourtree Cottage from the farmhouse;
(ii). ensure there is a ring tone, then leave it to ring;
(iii). then terminate the call roughly 50 minutes or so later at Bourtree Cottage;
(iv). then ring the farmhouse from Bourtree Cottage, ensuring there is an engaged tone at the other end;
(v). then terminate that call.

Was this technically possible at that time?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:21:PM
A valid point, but why not? Or why not have June leave his pyjamas in the downstairs shower room?  Or why not use pyjamas already downstairs, change downstairs and put his clothes in the wash?

Why shouldn't that have been his routine anyway?  He was a busy, hands-on farmer in the middle of a summer harvest.  Would June want him to be going in the main bedroom in dirty clothes?

It's worth thinking about.

Why would June do that?

Everyone went to bed between 8pm - 11pm. As highlighted by people's attire or being shot in bed. Or both.

It has been known for people to go to bed during that time period.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 04:26:PM
Rob, I do find such very inhumane. given that back in the 60s, ladies, residents of our local Psych hospital, were taken down the road to the male facility to spend the night. This was done, purely on the grounds that regular sex was known to have a calming effect on the men. Naturally, all the ladies were fitted with contraceptive devices, or fed the contraceptive pill as part of their daily meds routine. How much more important is it to keep long term prisoners' equilibrium balanced?

I agree Jane it is inhumane, but a lot of the prisoners in Cat A are extremely dangerous and violent. I don't know how this sort of thing could be arranged safely?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 04:29:PM
Why would do that.

Everyone went to bed between 8pm - 11pm. As highlighted by people's attire or being shot in bed. Or both.

It has been known for people to go to bed during that time period.

I've just explained why that could have happened in the post you have just quoted. 

Additionally Nevill did not go to bed between 8 and 11 at that time of year.  It's unlikely he would be done outside until at least about 10.45 p.m., maybe 11 p.m.  I repeat that this is the south of England during the summer harvest period.  He was in the habit of sitting up in the den, lounge (sitting room), or upstairs office with a brandy or whisky and he also walked Bruce.

I could imagine him having a habit of sleeping downstairs and drawing his pyjamas from somewhere like the airing cupboard in the downstairs shower room.  He could change into these after a shower, then have a drink and relax, then fall asleep where he was.  Maybe sometimes he just fell asleep in his work clothes, though we know that on this night, he didn't, he changed.

Equally, I agree, he could have gone upstairs, but this introduces a number of problems into the crime scene if Jeremy did it.

I think I have gone over this with you enough now.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 02, 2022, 04:30:PM
I agree Jane it is inhumane, but a lot of the prisoners in Cat A are extremely dangerous and violent. I don't know how this sort of thing could be arranged safely?


I hear what you say. In the 60s meds would have been delivered as a matter of course, now we have human rights and meds may be refused. It may come down to a trade off? No meds, no nooky?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:32:PM
I've just explained why that could have happened in the post you have just quoted. 

Additionally Nevill did not go to bed between 8 and 11 at that time of year.  It's unlikely he would be done outside until at least about 10.45 p.m., maybe 11 p.m.  I repeat that this is the south of England during the summer harvest period.  He was in the habit of sitting up in the den, lounge (sitting room), or upstairs office with a brandy or whisky and he also walked Bruce.

I could imagine him having a habit of sleeping downstairs and drawing his pyjamas from somewhere like the airing cupboard in the downstairs shower room.  He could change into these after a shower, then have a drink and relax, then fall asleep where he was.  Maybe sometimes he just fell asleep in his work clothes, though we know that on this night, he didn't, he changed.

Equally, I agree, he could have gone upstairs, but this introduces a number of problems into the crime scene if Jeremy did it.

I think I have gone over this with you enough now.

In his pyjamas? Source please 

Anyway the evidence is he was shot 4 times in the main bedroom. Bare footed in his pyjamas.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 04:33:PM
I've realised there is a flaw in my scenario in that if Jeremy uses an answerphone as suggested, that would then pinpoint the call at a particular time that would, in turn, make it impossible for Jeremy to then call the police from Bourtree Cottage within, say, 10 minutes of the alert from Nevill.

I think this is a point that has to be researched further because I don't remember how 1980s phones worked.  Is there anybody else here who knows the answer and can provide reliable sources?

Here we are assuming that Jeremy decides he has to stage a call (rather than just make one up), and notwithstanding that billing was non-itemised at that time, he assumes that there may be a way of pinpointing when calls are made, so he has to take precautions.

The obvious thing for Jeremy to do in this situation would be to:

(i). ring Bourtree Cottage from the farmhouse;
(ii). ensure there is a ring tone, then leave it to ring;
(iii). then terminate the call roughly 50 minutes or so later at Bourtree Cottage;
(iv). then ring the farmhouse from Bourtree Cottage, ensuring there is an engaged tone at the other end;
(v). then terminate that call.

Was this technically possible at that time?

The problem with this QC is that JB would not be able to terminate the call from Bourtree Cottage, only the caller can do this? Unless there is a maximum length of time that a call could be made in those days?

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:35:PM
I've just explained why that could have happened in the post you have just quoted. 

Additionally Nevill did not go to bed between 8 and 11 at that time of year.  It's unlikely he would be done outside until at least about 10.45 p.m., maybe 11 p.m.  I repeat that this is the south of England during the summer harvest period.  He was in the habit of sitting up in the den, lounge (sitting room), or upstairs office with a brandy or whisky and he also walked Bruce.

I could imagine him having a habit of sleeping downstairs and drawing his pyjamas from somewhere like the airing cupboard in the downstairs shower room.  He could change into these after a shower, then have a drink and relax, then fall asleep where he was.  Maybe sometimes he just fell asleep in his work clothes, though we know that on this night, he didn't, he changed.

Equally, I agree, he could have gone upstairs, but this introduces a number of problems into the crime scene if Jeremy did it.

I think I have gone over this with you enough now.

What problems?

Bamber shot Nevill twice in the face from inches away while Nevill was still in bed. Then twice in the torso after Nevill stood up.

As the evidence shows. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:36:PM
I've just explained why that could have happened in the post you have just quoted. 

Additionally Nevill did not go to bed between 8 and 11 at that time of year.  It's unlikely he would be done outside until at least about 10.45 p.m., maybe 11 p.m.  I repeat that this is the south of England during the summer harvest period.  He was in the habit of sitting up in the den, lounge (sitting room), or upstairs office with a brandy or whisky and he also walked Bruce.

I could imagine him having a habit of sleeping downstairs and drawing his pyjamas from somewhere like the airing cupboard in the downstairs shower room.  He could change into these after a shower, then have a drink and relax, then fall asleep where he was.  Maybe sometimes he just fell asleep in his work clothes, though we know that on this night, he didn't, he changed.

Equally, I agree, he could have gone upstairs, but this introduces a number of problems into the crime scene if Jeremy did it.

I think I have gone over this with you enough now.

Why not sleep in his bed?  More comfortable.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 04:38:PM
Adam has clearly never done manual labour.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:39:PM
It is interesting how people have different Bamber scenarios.

CC has Sheila tied up. QC has Bamber walking 6 miles, Nevill sleeping downstairs & June being shot in the landing.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 04:46:PM
The problem with this QC is that JB would not be able to terminate the call from Bourtree Cottage, only the caller can do this? Unless there is a maximum length of time that a call could be made in those days?

OK, let's consider it.

The point is that he gets back to Bourtree Cottage, and we assume the phone is still ringing.  He answers the call from the farmhouse.  He then depresses the switch hook.  If he intends to call Julie straight away, he may press down on the switch hook with his finger to close it.  Otherwise, he'll close the switch hook with the handset itself. 

What you're saying, Rob, in specific terms is that depressing the switch hook would not end the call with the farmhouse, only a human operator at the farmhouse or at the BT end can do that.

I understand what you are saying and I recall this phenomenon myself from the 1980s and 1990s, possibly into the 2000s.  But were there specific conditions for this to occur or was it general to PB exchanges?

Possibly we need someone who is expert or informed in analogue telephony to assist here.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 04:47:PM
Nevill enjoyed a drink and a smoke when he'd returned walking the dogs after he'd done a full day with the harvesting, so he'd have been in his favourite chair in the lounge, relaxing before a quick shower then bed, which would have been quite late. I would have thought that this was a regular pattern of his as bedtime would have been delayed to make sure that June had been asleep first given that she was a bad sleeper-----the same as Sheila had also been.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 04:48:PM
It is interesting how people have different Bamber scenarios.

CC has Sheila tied up. QC has Bamber walking 6 miles, Nevill sleeping downstairs & June being shot in the landing.

Well, June would be shot in the master bedroom, I think.  But Jeremy would surmise her as she is on the landing, yes, and she then backs away.

I still think you and Cambridgecutie should have that mud-wrestling Royal Rumble, Adam, to decide once and for all who is the Head Guilter.  Remember that NGB1066 can officiate, so it's all done fairly.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 04:50:PM
OK, let's consider it.

The point is that he gets back to Bourtree Cottage, and we assume the phone is still ringing.  He answers the call from the farmhouse.  He then depresses the switch hook.  If he intends to call Julie straight away, he may press down on the switch hook with his finger to close it.  Otherwise, he'll close the switch hook with the handset itself. 

What you're saying, Rob, in specific terms is that depressing the switch hook would not end the call with the farmhouse, only a human operator at the farmhouse or at the BT end can do that.

I understand what you are saying and I recall this phenomenon myself from the 1980s and 1990s, possibly into the 2000s.  But were there specific conditions for this to occur or was it general to PB exchanges?

Possibly we need someone who is expert or informed in analogue telephony to assist here.

I believe it has always been this way? Scammers use this trick a lot even today.

If JB faked the call from WHF he would have had to terminate the call before he left?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:51:PM
OK, let's consider it.

The point is that he gets back to Bourtree Cottage, and we assume the phone is still ringing.  He answers the call from the farmhouse.  He then depresses the switch hook.  If he intends to call Julie straight away, he may press down on the switch hook with his finger to close it.  Otherwise, he'll close the switch hook with the handset itself. 

What you're saying, Rob, in specific terms is that depressing the switch hook would not end the call with the farmhouse, only a human operator at the farmhouse or at the BT end can do that.

I understand what you are saying and I recall this phenomenon myself from the 1980s and 1990s, possibly into the 2000s.  But were there specific conditions for this to occur or was it general to PB exchanges?

Possibly we need someone who is expert or informed in analogue telephony to assist here.

Thought his answering machine would take the call. Which would give the impression it was answered.

Or he could put his phone on mute, to avoid the chance of neighbours hearing a continuous ring.

Doubt the phone would still be ringing when he got back. Calls are automatically cut off if no answer after several minutes.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 04:54:PM
Well, June would be shot in the master bedroom, I think.  But Jeremy would surmise her as she is on the landing, yes, and she then backs away.

I still think you and Cambridgecutie should have that mud-wrestling Royal Rumble, Adam, to decide once and for all who is the Head Guilter.  Remember that NGB1066 can officiate, so it's all done fairly.

Can forum members have a front seat QC!

It's worrying there are so many scenarios to me anyway, if JB is guilty it should be quite easy to have a scenario that fits the crime scene, and not have JB instantly giving himself away?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:57:PM
I believe it has always been this way? Scammers use this trick a lot even today.

If JB faked the call from WHF he would have had to terminate the call before he left?

The best routine would be -

Ring his cottage from WHF.

Wait for the answering machine - 6 to 10 rings.

Leave a short message on his answering machine.

Put the phone down at WHF.

Take the WHF phone back off the hook.

----------

That matches what Bamber told the police & the WHF evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 04:59:PM
Can forum members have a front seat QC!

It's worrying there are so many scenarios to me anyway, if JB is guilty it should be quite easy to have a scenario that fits the crime scene, and not have JB instantly giving himself away?

I'll quote the one already on this thread.

It matches the evidence. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:00:PM
Here is a more straight forward scenario. Which matches the evidence.

Cycle to WHF:

Evidence - June's bike brought over to Bamber's cottage just before massacre.  Easy journey. Unseen.


Get into WHF

Evidence - Bathroom window loose or open. Quiet ground floor entrance. Bamber said he knew how to get in through this window.

Pick up rifle:

Evidence ' Rifle available as stated by Bamber.


Fire one bullet into each twin.

Evidence - Julie said the twins were shot first.


Enter main bedroom:

Evidence - Two adults in this room who must be killed with remaining 9 bullets as potential to provide most resistance.


Shoot an in bed June and Neville:

Evidence - 9 shots were fired in the main bedroom opening salvo suggesting rifle was emptied in opening salvo.   June and Neville shot in or near the bed.


Go to reload or chase Neville:

Evidence - Spare bullets found in kitchen. Neville found in kitchen.


Kitchen fight:

Evidence - Neville was brutally beaten there.  Upturned and smashed kitchen items. Scratch marks on aga.


Reload, shoot and kill a knocked out Neville:

Evidence - Four kitchen head shots into Neville.


Reload. Return upstairs:

Evidence - All other shots upstairs.


Shoot June twice more:

Evidence - June had moved a few feet. Final shots required. Two of June's 7 shots would have killed her quickly.


Shoot the sleeping twins more times

Evidence - Twins shot 8 times in bed. Amount of bullets used shows two reloads carried out on the night.


Either wake and shoot or shoot an already awake Sheila:

Evidence - Sheila found shot in the corner of main bedroom. Sheila on Haloperidol so easy to control.


Go downstairs to check on Nevill

Evidence - Nevill was downstairs.


Remove & replace silencer. Move Nevill. Burn his back.

Evidence - Silencer with Sheila's blood & aga paint on/in found in cupboard. Nevill's back burnt. Nevill lifted onto coal scuttle.


Stage the scene:

Evidence - Gun and bible by Sheila.


Exit out of kitchen window:


Evidence - Twenty sources say it can be banged shut from outside. Housekeeper said items moved by kitchen window.on night of massacre.


Cycle home:

Evidence - Bike found at Bambers cottage

For Rob.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 05:07:PM
I believe it has always been this way? Scammers use this trick a lot even today.

If JB faked the call from WHF he would have had to terminate the call before he left?

Yes, if you're correct, that seems to be the logical implication of it as we cannot otherwise explain his phone calls to Julie and the police at a point when he would not still be at the farm. 

What it also means is that when terminating the call at the farmhouse end, he has to leave the handset off, so that he can get an engaged tone at the other end when making a potentially traceable call back to Nevill (and also so that it will look like somebody has used that specific phone).

This means we come full circle.  The problem is that he has to be seen (or potentially seen) coming out of Bourtree Cottage at 3.37 a.m., or whatever the time was.  At the same time, if you're correct, this means we also have another reason he can't use an answerphone as an aid because you still need somebody to terminate the call at the farm end.

This means, if he is guilty, and if we assume he believes that there could be a trace of calls somewhere (which seems a reasonable assumption to make), then the only way he can do this is by staging a call (making one up won't be enough), which in turn means he has to make the call from the farmhouse to Bourtree Cottage, then immediately terminate it and leave the handset off. 

This leaves him with only one option, which is to take the bike back with him to Bourtree Cottage, just as the police say. 

A flaw in this is the follow-up call to Nevill.  I accept that Jeremy would get the engaged tone when ringing back, but there will be a 10 to 15 minute gap - at minimum. 

What I think we can conclude is that if you have got the technical telephony parts of this right, then the bike was actually crucial to his plans, but it rests on the bike getting him back to Bourtree Cottage reasonably swiftly - say, within 10 to 15 minutes, and even then he is leaving a suspicious gap.  I do find it very hard to believe he would use a ladies push bike over farm tracks, and in the dark too, probably without lights.

It does raise the whole question of why stage these phone calls?  Why not just take the risk of questions about Nevill's body being found in the kitchen?  He is creating a rod for his own back.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:10:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:11:PM
Yes, if you're correct, that seems to be the logical implication of it as we cannot otherwise explain his phone calls to Julie and the police at a point when he would not still be at the farm. 

What it also means is that when terminating the call at the farmhouse end, he has to leave the handset off, so that he can get an engaged tone at the other end when making a potentially traceable call back to Nevill (and also so that it will look like somebody has used that specific phone).

This means we come full circle.  The problem is that he has to be seen (or potentially seen) coming out of Bourtree Cottage at 3.37 a.m., or whatever the time was.  At the same time, if you're correct, this means we also have another reason he can't use an answerphone as an aid because you still need somebody to terminate the call at the farm end.

This means, if he is guilty, and if we assume he believes that there could be a trace of calls somewhere (which seems a reasonable assumption to make), then the only way he can do this is by staging a call (making one up won't be enough), which in turn means he has to make the call from the farmhouse to Bourtree Cottage, then immediately terminate it and leave the handset off. 

This leaves him with only one option, which is to take the bike back with him to Bourtree Cottage, just as the police say. 

A flaw in this is the follow-up call to Nevill.  I accept that Jeremy would get the engaged tone when ringing back, but there will be a 10 to 15 minute gap - at minimum. 

What I think we can conclude is that if you have got the technical telephony parts of this right, then the bike was actually crucial to his plans, but it rests on the bike getting him back to Bourtree Cottage reasonably swiftly - say, within 10 to 15 minutes, and even then he is leaving a suspicious gap.  I do find it very hard to believe he would use a ladies push bike over farm tracks, and in the dark too, probably without lights.

It does raise the whole question of why stage these phone calls?  Why not just take the risk of questions about Nevill's body being found in the kitchen?  He is creating a rod for his own back.

I've just given a scenario in reply 166.

This matches what Bamber said -

Phone call from WHF.

He answered.

Call lasted 6 seconds.

Line went dead.

---------

If BT were able to check this, it would confirm.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:12:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

Well he shot him 4 times. Twice in the face from inches away.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:13:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

That is what the evidence shows. Unless Bamber went downstairs to re load & was followed.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:15:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

Why not put it back in it's usual place after taking it off?

Again the submitted evidence shows he did.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:17:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

She was on Haloperidol. Bamber had checked on her hours earlier.

He was ready to move her 20 yards. Probably by persuasion.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:17:PM
Yes, if you're correct, that seems to be the logical implication of it as we cannot otherwise explain his phone calls to Julie and the police at a point when he would not still be at the farm. 

What it also means is that when terminating the call at the farmhouse end, he has to leave the handset off, so that he can get an engaged tone at the other end when making a potentially traceable call back to Nevill (and also so that it will look like somebody has used that specific phone).

This means we come full circle.  The problem is that he has to be seen (or potentially seen) coming out of Bourtree Cottage at 3.37 a.m., or whatever the time was.  At the same time, if you're correct, this means we also have another reason he can't use an answerphone as an aid because you still need somebody to terminate the call at the farm end.

This means, if he is guilty, and if we assume he believes that there could be a trace of calls somewhere (which seems a reasonable assumption to make), then the only way he can do this is by staging a call (making one up won't be enough), which in turn means he has to make the call from the farmhouse to Bourtree Cottage, then immediately terminate it and leave the handset off. 

This leaves him with only one option, which is to take the bike back with him to Bourtree Cottage, just as the police say. 

A flaw in this is the follow-up call to Nevill.  I accept that Jeremy would get the engaged tone when ringing back, but there will be a 10 to 15 minute gap - at minimum. 

What I think we can conclude is that if you have got the technical telephony parts of this right, then the bike was actually crucial to his plans, but it rests on the bike getting him back to Bourtree Cottage reasonably swiftly - say, within 10 to 15 minutes, and even then he is leaving a suspicious gap.  I do find it very hard to believe he would use a ladies push bike over farm tracks, and in the dark too, probably without lights.

It does raise the whole question of why stage these phone calls?  Why not just take the risk of questions about Nevill's body being found in the kitchen?  He is creating a rod for his own back.


If Jeremy feels he needs to stage the calls because of BT records, then he is stuck?

The cycle is the only option, and this gives him no time to get rid of evidence and smarten himself up etc.?

As you say if he believed the calls were recorded, why does he hang himself? he would commit the crime another way or just not make any calls and wait till the bodies are found in the morning?



Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:18:PM
Thanks Adam, I have read this many times.

There are many problems for me for instance in no particular order:

1) A crack shooter creeps into a bedroom and fails to eliminate his main threat I don't buy this.
2) You have Nevil rushing past JB in the bedroom, sorry no.
3) JB would not have put the silencer in the cupboard.
4) The shots to Sheila are a mystery to me if she was not drugged.
5) The whole thing is so so risky, only two suspects would he really attempt it?

There is a much easier solution?

Well the evidence shows it was not Sheila.

Crimes are risky.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 05:23:PM

If Jeremy feels he needs to stage the calls because of BT records, then he is stuck?

The cycle is the only option, and this gives him no time to get rid of evidence and smarten himself up etc.?

As you say if he believed the calls were recorded, why does he hang himself? he would commit the crime another way or just not make any calls and wait till the bodies are found in the morning?

Adam and I went over this in a 2020 thread and I remember clearly remarking on how dogmatic Adam is about the bicycle.  He even insists that Jeremy went to the farmhouse by bicycle when the police have Jeremy going on foot, same as I suggest.

It's clear why Adam is so keen on June's bike being a factor in this.  He knows that without that bike, the case against Jeremy Bamber collapses.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:24:PM
Well he shot him 4 times. Twice in the face from inches away.

A .22 from inches away is lethal Adam, how does JB mess this up? His first shot would be the end for poor Nevil. I hope you are not going to suggest that JB did this deliberately to make it look like Sheila?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:25:PM
Adam and I went over this in a 2020 thread and I remember clearly remarking on how dogmatic Adam is about the bicycle.  He even insists that Jeremy went to the farmhouse by bicycle when the police have Jeremy going on foot, same as I suggest.

It's clear why Adam is so keen on June's bike being a factor in this.  He knows that without that bike, the case against Jeremy Bamber collapses.

Do they?

Bamber took June's bike back to his cottage before the massacre.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:26:PM
Adam and I went over this in a 2020 thread and I remember clearly remarking on how dogmatic Adam is about the bicycle.  He even insists that Jeremy went to the farmhouse by bicycle when the police have Jeremy going on foot, same as I suggest.

It's clear why Adam is so keen on June's bike being a factor in this.  He knows that without that bike, the case against Jeremy Bamber collapses.

Yes thanks QC I think I also asked Adam the same question, if JB is on foot it cannot be him!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:29:PM
That is what the evidence shows. Unless Bamber went downstairs to re load & was followed.

Not sure what else Bamber was going to do when Nevill headed for the exit.

Bamber was out of bullets & Nevill was 6.4 & 15 stone. Bamber would be wanting to avoid a confrontation & possible injuries. He would be hopeing Nevill collapsed.

Nevill didn't collapse & a violent fight took place downstairs.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:30:PM
Yes thanks QC I think I also asked Adam the same question, if JB is on foot it cannot be him!

The prosecution case is he cycled there and back.

June's bike was stolen/taken before the massacre.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:32:PM
Not sure what else Bamber was going to do when Nevill headed for the exit.

Bamber was out of bullets & Nevill was 6.4 & 15 stone. Bamber would be wanting to avoid a confrontation & possible injuries. He would be hopeing Nevill collapsed.

Nevill didn't collapse & a violent fight happened.

Nevil would not run past JB Adam, and also JB would not have allowed him to, because Nevil only needed a second to dial 999 once downstairs.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:33:PM
Not sure what else Bamber was going to do when Nevill headed for the exit.

Bamber was out of bullets & Nevill was 6.4 & 15 stone. Bamber would be wanting to avoid a confrontation & possible injuries. He would be hopeing Nevill collapsed.

Nevill didn't collapse & a violent fight took place downstairs.

Unless Bamber went downstairs to re load & was followed by Nevill.

Less likely in my opinion.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:36:PM
Nevil would not run past JB Adam, and also JB would not have allowed him to, because Nevil only needed a second to dial 999 once downstairs.

The evidence & successful prosecution case is -

Nevill was shot 4 times upstairs.

Nevill went downstairs. Either chased by or followed Bamber.

----------

But feel free to say what Bamber & Nevill would or wouldn't do. In a situation you have never been in.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:36:PM
The prosecution case is he cycled there and back.

June's bike was stolen/taken before the massacre.

The prosecution's case had to be he cycled there and back, because the times don't allow for any other option.

Why would he use Junes bike? if he used a bike the last one he would use is Junes.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:38:PM
The prosecution's case had to be he cycled there and back, because the times don't allow for any other option.

Why would he use Junes bike? if he used a bike the last one he would use is Junes.

Whose bike?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 05:40:PM
The prosecution's case had to be he cycled there and back, because the times don't allow for any other option.

Why would he use Junes bike? if he used a bike the last one he would use is Junes.

It's lucky they have supporting evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:41:PM
The evidence & successful prosecution case is -

Nevill was shot 4 times upstairs.

Nevill went downstairs. Either chased by or followed Bamber.

----------

But feel free to say what Bamber & Nevill would or wouldn't do. In a situation you have never been in.

JB could not let Nevil get to the phone, it's one reason I struggle with your scenario.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:43:PM
It's lucky they have supporting evidence.

If I had been defending, I would have put the jury members all on cycles in the middle of the night with no lights and see how they got on. The verdict would be 12:0 instead of 10:2!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 05:44:PM
Do they?

Bamber took June's bike back to his cottage before the massacre.

The official police theory, as set out in Mike Ainsley's submission to the DPP in 1985, is that Jeremy went on foot and used the bicycle on the return leg. 

It may be that he also had the bike at the cottage earlier than the incident, but wouldn't that lend weight to his own story and his innocence?   You seem to be backing up Jeremy on this point.  Thanks Adam. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Roch on January 02, 2022, 05:45:PM
If I had been defending, I would have put the jury members all on cycles in the middle of the night with no lights and see how they got on. The verdict would be 12:0 instead of 10:2!

Spot on.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 05:45:PM
The prosecution case is he cycled there and back.

June's bike was stolen/taken before the massacre.

Julie swears blind that she saw the bike at the cottage on the preceding Sunday, 4th.  Doesn't that undermine somewhat the prosecution case you put here?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 05:48:PM
If I had been defending, I would have put the jury members all on cycles in the middle of the night with no lights and see how they got on. The verdict would be 12:0 instead of 10:2!





After hours spent working !
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 05:57:PM




After hours spent working !

A bit of overtime helps Lookout ;)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 02, 2022, 06:00:PM
The prosecution's case had to be he cycled there and back, because the times don't allow for any other option.

Why would he use Junes bike? if he used a bike the last one he would use is Junes.

Not really. Only if the time of the alleged call placed from WHF to Bourtree Cottage could be proved do timings either on foot or bike become crucial and the only evidence of that call happening is the word of JB.  It was posited that he had used his mother's bike because it was at Goldhanger with mud on the tyres but I think it more likely he went on foot.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 06:03:PM
Not really. Only if the time of the alleged call placed from WHF to Bourtree Cottage could be proved do timings either on foot or bike become crucial and the only evidence of that call happening is the word of JB.  It was posited that he had used his mother's bike because it was at Goldhanger with mud on the tyres but I think it more likely he went on foot.

We were talking about the situation where JB believed the Police could trace the calls somehow and JB felt he had to fake the calls. Not the situation where JB just lies about the calls etc.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 06:10:PM
A bit of overtime helps Lookout ;)

Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 06:42:PM
It was a heavy " sit-up and beg " bicycle not your racing bike.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:43:PM
Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."


No. Bamber knew the way. He lived & worked at both properties virtually all his life.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:44:PM
Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."

I don't understand. The police timed it at 15 minutes.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:45:PM
Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."

Source please.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:46:PM
Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen. Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."

Jeremy checked.

It was Worzel Gummidge's night off.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 06:46:PM
The phones at WHF were struck by lightening ! Don't you follow the case Adam ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:49:PM
If I had been defending, I would have put the jury members all on cycles in the middle of the night with no lights and see how they got on. The verdict would be 12:0 instead of 10:2!

The foot & cycle paths are so accessible, they even have benches.

Did I mention Bamber had spent over 15 years living & working at both & in between both properties.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:50:PM
Julie swears blind that she saw the bike at the cottage on the preceding Sunday, 4th.  Doesn't that undermine somewhat the prosecution case you put here?

So before the massacre.

He cycled there & back.

Why would he walk there?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:51:PM
The phones at WHF were struck by lightening ! Don't you follow the case Adam ?

Lookout making things up again.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 06:53:PM
Not really. Only if the time of the alleged call placed from WHF to Bourtree Cottage could be proved do timings either on foot or bike become crucial and the only evidence of that call happening is the word of JB.  It was posited that he had used his mother's bike because it was at Goldhanger with mud on the tyres but I think it more likely he went on foot.

Why?

Julie's WS said he planned to cycle & brought the bike over before the massacre.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 07:00:PM
Massive difference between walking & cycling 6 miles. Even if it is on foot & bike paths.

It is strange that people think he walked when evidence & WS's show differently.

The successful prosecution case was he cycled there & back.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 07:01:PM
Lookout making things up again.






No. You forgetting that the engineer took a phone away to be repaired----because of a lightening strike  ::)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 07:02:PM
Don't like being caught out do you so you resort to insults.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 07:06:PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQzdAsjWGPg
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 02, 2022, 07:09:PM
We were talking about the situation where JB believed the Police could trace the calls somehow and JB felt he had to fake the calls. Not the situation where JB just lies about the calls etc.

Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 07:12:PM
There were 3 cycle routes. Bamber would know the safest & easiest route/s.  Maybe he used a combinarion of routes.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 07:13:PM
Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?

Good question.

Did Bamber actually phone his answering machine.

Or just say Nevill phoned him.

It would not take much investigating by him to find out what he needed to do.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 02, 2022, 07:17:PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQzdAsjWGPg






That was a nice interval QC.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 02, 2022, 07:21:PM
Good question.

Did Bamber actually phone his answering machine.

Or just say Nevill phoned him.

It would not take much investigating by him to find out what he needed to do.

Yes, or did he improvise making the call to the police without thinking it through - did he even realise he was putting himself in the frame ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 07:25:PM
Yes, or did he improvise making the call to the police without thinking it through - did he even realise he was putting himself in the frame ?

QC believes the call to the police happened due to the kitchen fight.

I did ask David what better option he had than create a 4 hour seige situation where he could insinuate Sheila. But got no response.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 07:27:PM
Well Jeremy did advertise the murders ahead of time, Rob.  It would have been a bit rude of him not to turn up. 

Anyway, Ainsley says 15 minutes by bike using the Brook House Farm route (return only).  DI Wilkinson completed the test ride in 16 minutes, but that was by day.

It's worth emphasising that at roughly 2.30 a.m. on the 7th., you would probably just be coming into astronomical twilight, which means it would still be dark, albeit with the benefit of moonlight since it was between a full and three-quarter moon on 7th. August 1985, and I would calculate roughly 65% lunar illumination.

In plain language: you'd still need lights on your bike when going along, unless you don't mind crashing into potholes, pedestrians, anything.  And it would take him longer than 15 or 16 minutes, for a few different reasons:

(i). if he is riding without lights, then please at least double the time estimate;
(ii). it's dark anyway, so even with lights, it will take longer along farm tracks;
(iii). it's been raining, thundering and lightning, just before this happened, so the tracks will be muddy;
(iv). it may take him some time to get into Goldhanger and reach the cottage itself, as he must be cautious and not be seen.  Even if he is disguised, a probable retroactive identification is still possible.  "Oh yes, I saw somebody on a ladies bike at that time, cycling down Maldon Road he was.  Yes, his face was covered, dressed all in black, no lights on, and he stooped as if he not to want to be seen.  Thought it was strange."

I am surprised no one tried cycling the likely routes at night QC, I suspect they would not have got very far before landing face down somewhere!

The Moon is not very bright, and there is a big difference between full Moon and the other phases. I think  a super Moon at high altitude is something like .3 Lux and a full moon generally 0.1 lux but it depends greatly on the local weather conditions. On the 7th the Moon phase was a bit over 60% I don't think anyone could cycle with this? It always seems to be full Moon when I am trying to use my telescope!

If a cyclist was seen that night at around 3 to 4ish JB is done for, I just cannot see him cycling apart from the difficultly of doing it with no lights? Adam thinks it's a piece of cake oh well.



Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 07:31:PM
Yes, I asked  this question on my thread reasonable doubt - Could the jury be sure JB knew there would be no way of verifying that call or was he merely bluffing?

There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 02, 2022, 07:43:PM
There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?


I meant was he bluffing when said in interview that he assumed the police could verify the time of the calls. If the police could have verified that call and it wasn't made or was made much earlier than JB claimed, he would have been stuffed. Personally, I think it's reasonable to have assumed BT would have some records of calls.

It's also possible that he didn't plan to call the police and didn't think things through properly, not least the fact that he made himself the only other suspect.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 09:01:PM


I meant was he bluffing when said in interview that he assumed the police could verify the time of the calls. If the police could have verified that call and it wasn't made or was made much earlier than JB claimed, he would have been stuffed. Personally, I think it's reasonable to have assumed BT would have some records of calls.

It's also possible that he didn't plan to call the police and didn't think things through properly, not least the fact that he made himself the only other suspect.


He must have known he would be a suspect, even without the phone calls? But calling the police in the way he did made it a case of only two suspects either him or Sheila.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 09:05:PM
I am surprised no one tried cycling the likely routes at night QC, I suspect they would not have got very far before landing face down somewhere!

The Moon is not very bright, and there is a big difference between full Moon and the other phases. I think  a super Moon at high altitude is something like .3 Lux and a full moon generally 0.1 lux but it depends greatly on the local weather conditions. On the 7th the Moon phase was a bit over 60% I don't think anyone could cycle with this? It always seems to be full Moon when I am trying to use my telescope!

If a cyclist was seen that night at around 3 to 4ish JB is done for, I just cannot see him cycling apart from the difficultly of doing it with no lights? Adam thinks it's a piece of cake oh well.

If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse.  Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 09:06:PM
I am not being dogmatic about it.  I do disagree with you, but I also acknowledge that you may be right.  Something in your favour is that it was a low calibre weapon.

However, for you to be correct about this, that would mean June is getting up and out of bed when she is injured and while the assailant continues firing at her.  Remember where she is found and in what position: on her back by the bed with her feet near to the door, and with blood around the bed, all of which suggests she has been moving around.  Consider her age.  She is an elderly woman, and she may be in shock.

Bear in mind also the psychology of this.  If Jeremy is the killer and he has caught Nevill and June still in bed, then he will shoot Nevill first, not June.  I think you undermine your own case when you try to suggest that Jeremy is firing on June first.  If Nevill is in bed, then it's easy for Jeremy.  He has plenty of time and can walk up to Nevill and shoot him at close range, then shoot him some more as part of the staging to make it look like Sheila run amok.

Finally, also take into account the position of the brass bed itself.  it is at right-angles to Jeremy's likely route of assault.

Taking all this into consideration, I find it more likely that a Jeremy scenario involves Jeremy negating Nevill downstairs (Nevill having decided to sleep downstairs, for the reasons given) and Jeremy then goes back up the stairs and finds June on the landing.  As June backs into the master bedroom, he fires on her.  She backs into her bed, where she leaves more blood, then comes about two feet forward towards Jeremy, probably screaming.  Then he kills her by shooting her between the eyes (this last shot occurring either there and then as just described, or later if he finds her still alive).

I think the police then moved June's body.  Her body was probably originally found with her feet somewhat at the threshold, Jeremy firing from the stairs, then the landing.  The reason I think this is because if you look at the poor woman's body in the photos, the position she is photographed in doesn't make sense. It looks like her body is laid flat and has been 'staged' by somebody.

This all fits the evidence - if you assume Jeremy is guilty.

Yes the rifle is low calibre but I have provided you with all the techncial details showing the lethality.  Why do you think the Dickinson report states the following at point 128 if the rifle is mere child's play?

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 09:15:PM
Yes the rifle is low calibre but I have provided you with all the techncial details showing the lethality.  Why do you think the Dickinson report states the following at point 128 if the rifle is mere child's play?

I'm glad you've posted all the 'technical details' concerning lethality, but I don't see what point you're making or how any of it contradicts what I have said?  I have not denied that the rifle is lethal.  I think I have stated the opposite, actually.  At the least, I have provided a scenario in which the rifle is the weapon used to kill five people.  I have also mentioned that there are complex factors affecting lethality.  But I maintain what I originally said: a magazine for a low calibre rifle would be fully-loaded by a premeditated killer because he would know that the lethality of low calibre weapons, while by all means resting on complex factors, ultimately is lower than high calibre weapons.  The .22 rifle is not designed for combat.

Nearly all your posts come across as expressing a need to pick a point to argue with me about, simply because you want an argument, not because you have anything to say that adds to what I broadly already know.  You accuse me of saying things or making arguments I haven't really said by creating a slightly twisted misunderstanding of my statements, and then try to disprove the argument that you invented and I never made in the first place. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 02, 2022, 09:30:PM
As with much of what you say on here, you are half-clever.

The position of the spent cartridges found can only be considered a rough guide, at best.  Quite simply, there is no reliable evidence that Nevill was shot upstairs or that he went upstairs at all that night.

If Mr Bamber wasn't shot upstairs and the twins sustained 8 gunshot wounds, June also sustained 8 and Sheila 2 can you please explain how a total of 22 casings were found upstairs? 

I don't accept that a bullet or bullet hole in a pillow proves that June was shot while still in bed.  The bed was in the line of sight of shots, and bullets can hid the bed as well as they can hit people.

Its up to you what you believe but all the pathological, forensic and ballistic evidence supports the fact June sustained 2 gunshot wounds whilst her head was on her pillow and a further 4 gunshot wounds as she lifted herself out of bed.

I do not say that a low calibre rifle is non-lethal, but low calibre is typically not as lethal as high calibre.  Obviously it's not simple as there are factors to consider, but calibre of the murder weapon will always be relevant.  As will range of shot and bullet type.  I think Jeremy would have had enough ballistic nous to understand that with a .22 rifle, he needed it fully-loaded and he needed all his targets except Sheila to be in bed, with shots to the head at reasonably close range, while at the same time allowing that he was staging Sheila running amok and needed to bear that in mind too.


I have provided you with all the techncial details regarding the lethality of the rifle.  A marksman like Bamber could easily kill each victim with a single gunshot wound to the head.  (You also need to factor in the type of bullet used ie hollow point.  These are described as mini food mixers whizzing around inside the body.)  He would know this would be way beyond Sheila's capability and therefore went for overkill to make it look amateurish and frenzied.  The magazine for the shotgun only held 3 cartridges.  The recoil for Sheila would probably send her flying.  The sound would probably wake up those in the neighbouring cottages - you can't fit a silencer to a shotgun.  It would also generate a lot of blood and gore which Bamber obviously wanted to avoid on his person and the possibility of leaving footprints.

This explains the shots to the twins, which were executed efficiently.  The others were not, but he had taken the precaution of filling the magazine.  Frankly, it would have been daft for him to just put half a magazine in.

The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi.

Wasted bullets means bullets that did not hit their target.  There were some.

All 26 shots hit the victims.  1 to June was non-penetrating. 

I don't recall you providing mathematical calculations of your own based on physics, but you may have done.  I remember a post from you in which you provided figures from Eley.  By all means, if you link back to the post, I will look at it again.  I can't remember what I said about it when I saw it.

I provided figures which you doubted and asked how I had arrived at them.  I then provided all the back up.  Use the search facility by entering 'joules'. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 10:19:PM
I am not sure I agree with this Cc:

"The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi."

So you are saying JB planned to let Nevil escape downstairs to the Kitchen? How is the phone call a alibi? I have read a load of posts from the guilters recently saying it proves his guilt, talk about having it both ways!

JB would have avoided a confrontation with Nevil at all costs, and he would not let him get anywhere near a phone.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:22:PM
There are major problems which ever way he planned it, if he is simply lying about he calls why does he not just call 999, and if he faked the calls timings become critical?

As said Bamber had lived & worked in the area. But only for about 15 years.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:23:PM
If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse. Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.

Eh?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:27:PM
QC is saying Bamber stole June's bike before the massacre.

Then brought it back to WHF.

Then walked to WHF & cycled back.

But his choice.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 10:28:PM
I am not sure I agree with this Cc:

"The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi."

So you are saying JB planned to let Nevil escape downstairs to the Kitchen? How is the phone call a alibi? I have read a load of posts from the guilters recently saying it proves his guilt, talk about having it both ways!

JB would have avoided a confrontation with Nevil at all costs, and he would not let him get anywhere near a phone.

If Jeremy is guilty, then he shot (began shooting) Nevill where he found him.  Simple.  Period.  I also believe that the only way a Jeremy scenario can work is if Nevill is already downstairs.

Forcing, luring or persuading Nevill to come downstairs does not work, for the following reasons:

1. It's inherently risky and open-ended.
2. There is no reason to do it. 
3. It is not necessary in order to stage Sheila running amok.
4. Nevill would ask why Jeremy is in the house at all, since the doors are locked from the inside.
5. Jeremy would not be a guest there, as he then immediately incriminates himself if anyone outside the farmhouse discovers the fact.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:28:PM
If the bike was seen at Bourtree Cottage before the incident, then in my view it weakens the plausibility of a scenario in which Jeremy uses the bike to go to the farmhouse.  Within the scope of a Jeremy scenario, I agree with the police that if Jeremy is going to use the bike, it will be on the way back only.  Having realised he needs to be at Bourtree Cottage in double quick order, he sees the bike outside in the kitchen yard and takes it. 

As to why it would be at Bourtree Cottage, there may be an innocent explanation, such as the one Jeremy offered, and it could be that Julie neither denied nor confirmed this because she and the police were worried it could point to implicating her.  Instead, the point is passed over in silence, Julie merely stating that she saw the bike at the cottage on the 4th., and Jeremy had previously mentioned using the bike in a murder scheme.

Adam is reading those two statements of Julie's together to conclude that Jeremy must have used the bike to reach the farmhouse.  Personally I think it may have occurred to him and then he dismissed the idea, realising that a ladies sit-up-and-beg bicycle would be an absurd impediment to him.  He changed his mind for the return leg only because he had no choice.

Source please. Second request.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 10:29:PM
QC is saying Bamber stole June's bike before the massacre.

Then brought it back to WHF.

Then walked to WHF & cycled back.

But his choice.

No, I have not said this.  He can't have stolen it and left it outside for all the world to see on the 4th.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:32:PM
No, I have not said this.  He can't have stolen it and left it outside for all the world to see on the 4th.

Julie saw it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:34:PM
It is pretty clear Bamber cycled to & from WHF. Using one or a combination of the 3 available routes.

Not sure why people complicate things.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 02, 2022, 10:36:PM
If Mr Bamber wasn't shot upstairs and the twins sustained 8 gunshot wounds, June also sustained 8 and Sheila 2 can you please explain how a total of 22 casings were found upstairs?

I have already explained, earlier in the thread.  Read it, or use your imagination.

Its up to you what you believe but all the pathological, forensic and ballistic evidence supports the fact June sustained 2 gunshot wounds whilst her head was on her pillow and a further 4 gunshot wounds as she lifted herself out of bed.

As you say, it's up to me what I believe.  And I don't consider you any sort of authority on the case.
 
I have provided you with all the techncial details regarding the lethality of the rifle.  A marksman like Bamber could easily kill each victim with a single gunshot wound to the head. 

Then why didn't he?  Since Sheila could do the same.

(You also need to factor in the type of bullet used ie hollow point.  These are described as mini food mixers whizzing around inside the body.)  He would know this would be way beyond Sheila's capability and therefore went for overkill to make it look amateurish and frenzied.  The magazine for the shotgun only held 3 cartridges.  The recoil for Sheila would probably send her flying.  The sound would probably wake up those in the neighbouring cottages - you can't fit a silencer to a shotgun.  It would also generate a lot of blood and gore which Bamber obviously wanted to avoid on his person and the possibility of leaving footprints.

I'm still not clear what point you are trying to make, sorry.  It may help if I mention that I am already aware of all this and have mentioned most of it in my own posts, as have others.

The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi.

I believe you are wrong about this, for the reasons given in outline above, and in the scenario itself.

All 26 shots hit the victims.  1 to June was non-penetrating. 

I disagree.  Apart from the ballistics record stating to the contrary, we simply don't know that all bullets were recovered.  Anyway, even if all shots were on target, so what?  The shooter was working at close range.

I provided figures which you doubted and asked how I had arrived at them.  I then provided all the back up.  Use the search facility by entering 'joules'.

My recollection is that I did not doubt your figures necessarily, I merely asked for your source. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:36:PM
Don't blame him for cycling. I wouldn't want to walk 6 miles.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 10:48:PM
If Jeremy is guilty, then he shot (began shooting) Nevill where he found him.  Simple.  Period.  I also believe that the only way a Jeremy scenario can work is if Nevill is already downstairs.

Forcing, luring or persuading Nevill to come downstairs does not work, for the following reasons:

1. It's inherently risky and open-ended.
2. There is no reason to do it. 
3. It is not necessary in order to stage Sheila running amok.
4. Nevill would ask why Jeremy is in the house at all, since the doors are locked from the inside.
5. Jeremy would not be a guest there, as he then immediately incriminates himself if anyone outside the farmhouse discovers the fact.

Thanks QC I totally agree, I just don't understand the guilters arguments they seem to forget that JB is trying not to get caught!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:54:PM
Thanks QC I totally agree, I just don't understand the guilters arguments they seem to forget that JB is trying not to get caught!

I agree that Bamber would not attempt to force Nevill to go downstairs.

His aim was to kill him in the main bedroom. Then put the bedroom phone in the bedroom & take it off the hook.

The evidence shows Nevill was shot 4 times in that room. Twice from inches away in the face.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:56:PM
I am not sure I agree with this Cc:

"The twins were shot in their sleep.  He could not shoot Mr Bamber in his sleep because he wanted the phone call as his alibi."

So you are saying JB planned to let Nevil escape downstairs to the Kitchen? How is the phone call a alibi? I have read a load of posts from the guilters recently saying it proves his guilt, talk about having it both ways!

JB would have avoided a confrontation with Nevil at all costs, and he would not let him get anywhere near a phone.

Agree with that. See my previous post.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 10:56:PM
Don't blame him for cycling. I wouldn't want to walk 6 miles.

Nor would I, but I would also try and avoid getting caught if I was planning the crime of the century and the police knew it was one of two people.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 10:59:PM
Nor would I, but I would also try and avoid getting caught if I was planning the crime of the century and the police knew it was one of two people.

As much chance of being seen if walking. He will be outside for hours, not minutes.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 11:00:PM
I agree that Bamber would not attempt to force Nevill to go downstairs.

His aim was to kill him in the main bedroom. Then put the bedroom phone in the bedroom & take it off the hook.

The evidence shows Nevill was shot 4 times in that room. Twice from inches away in the face.

I thought the housekeeper knew that the phone was out of order Adam? or have I got my wires crossed?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:01:PM
Ideally Bamber wanted Nevill dead in or by the bed.

He could then position Nevill in a suitable position & put the bedroom phone in the bedroom & take it off the hook.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:02:PM
I thought the housekeeper knew that the phone was out of order Adam? or have I got my wires crossed?

The bedroom phone was working, but in the kitchen off the hook.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 11:05:PM
The bedroom phone was working, but in the kitchen off the hook.

Yes but the housekeeper knew it had been moved to the kitchen?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:06:PM
Bamber is not going to shoot Nevill 4 times in the main bedroom, if he was planning to force Nevill to go downstairs.

Bamber just failed to land two more face shots onto Nevill, which would have surely killed him upstairs.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:08:PM
Yes but the housekeeper knew it had been moved to the kitchen?

Doesn't matter what the housekeeper knew.

In my view that phone was either already in the bedroom, or Bamber planned to put it there.

However Nevill got downstairs. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 11:08:PM
Bamber is not going to shoot Nevill 4 times in the main bedroom, if he was planning to force Nevill to go downstairs.

Bamber just failed to land two more face shots onto Nevill, which would have surely killed him upstairs.

Your idea of putting the phone back in the bedroom etc. is plausible if no one knows it was moved to the kitchen?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:11:PM
Your idea of putting the phone back in the bedroom etc. is plausible if no one knows it was moved to the kitchen?

Doesn't matter who knew where the phone was a day or week before.

The murder/suicide stance would have always been it was in the bedroom on the night.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 11:15:PM
Doesn't matter who knew where the phone was a day or week before.

The murder/suicide stance would have always been it was in the bedroom on the night.

I agree that's what JB would have been hoping for, but risky putting the phone back in the bedroom if the housekeeper or someone else knew it was in the kitchen the day before?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:18:PM
I agree that's what JB would have been hoping for, but risky putting the phone back in the bedroom if the housekeeper or someone else knew it was in the kitchen the day before?

Risky. But it was the bedroom phone. And it was in working order. So nothing strange in it being there & Nevill calling Bamber from it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 02, 2022, 11:22:PM
Risky. But it was the bedroom phone. And it was in working order. So nothing strange in it being there & Nevill calling Bamber from it.

Ok sounds plausible Adam.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:27:PM
Ok sounds plausible Adam.

It might have been in the bedroom on the night. Bamber put it downstairs after Nevill got downstairs.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:29:PM
It might have been in the bedroom on the night. Bamber put it downstairs after Nevill got downstairs.

If it wasn't, Bamber would have checked it in the kitchen. To make sure it was working. Maybe a few hours earlier at supper.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 02, 2022, 11:31:PM
Ideally everyone is shot & killed upstairs.

Nevill moved a few feet from the bed & the bedroom phone taken off the hook. In the bedroom.

Sheila is killed in the twins room.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 03, 2022, 11:31:AM
I have already explained, earlier in the thread.  Read it, or use your imagination.

No imagination required.  It is a known fact the rifle ejects casings forward by about 4 feet and to the right.  It is a known fact soc officers found a total of 14 casings in the main bedroom and extending just outside onto the landing.  It is a known fact all these casings were photographed, given exhibit numbers and bagged for forensic examination.  It is a known fact all these casings and photographs were examined at trial one by one.  All these facts along with many others prove beyond any doubt Mr Bamber sustained 4 gunshot wounds upstairs and yet you want me to imagine he sustained all his gunshot wounds downstairs where you claim he slept despite the fact there was no bed downstairs but plenty of empty ones upstairs!   ::) 

As you say, it's up to me what I believe.  And I don't consider you any sort of authority on the case.

I've never claimed to be some sort of authority on the case.  I simply follow the expert evidence whereas you come up with ludicrous theories which ignore the physical and expert evidence
 
Then why didn't he?  Since Sheila could do the same.

Sheila might well have been capable of firing and hitting the victims at close range as the scene portrayed but highly unlikely she would have been capable of execution style one hits to the head.  Hence Bamber needed it to look amateurish and frenzied.  And it worked until the silencer and Ms Mugford arrived!

I'm still not clear what point you are trying to make, sorry.  It may help if I mention that I am already aware of all this and have mentioned most of it in my own posts, as have others.

Likewise.

I believe you are wrong about this, for the reasons given in outline above, and in the scenario itself.

And I believe you are wrong.

I disagree.  Apart from the ballistics record stating to the contrary, we simply don't know that all bullets were recovered.  Anyway, even if all shots were on target, so what?  The shooter was working at close range.

What evidence exists that unaccounted bullets were discharged?  The muzzle velocity is 1040/fts.
 
My recollection is that I did not doubt your figures necessarily, I merely asked for your source.

Its on the forum.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 12:45:PM
It is strange that people try to complicate a straight forward scenario that matches the evidence.

QC has Nevill sleeping downstairs & fighting Bamber upon entrance.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 12:48:PM
Nevill never fought anyone ! His attacker was completely unmarked.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 12:51:PM
2 women and a giant of a man and nobody around with injuries from these people ? Why ??
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 03, 2022, 12:53:PM
Nevill never fought anyone ! His attacker was completely unmarked.

Good that you don't buy into 'Bill's' theories.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 03, 2022, 12:53:PM
2 women and a giant of a man and nobody around with injuries from these people ? Why ??

What injuries would you expect to see and why?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 01:00:PM
What injuries would you expect to see and why?





Scratches from Sheila's long nails, a kitchen utensil used to bash the assailant and Nevill to knock the rifle out of the hands of the killer. 3 adults, kitchen utensils/ pans/ pokers near the Aga---anything and everything to hand in a kitchen. You'd muster up the energy from somewhere if someone entered the farmhouse----while another would quickly dial the police as they can trace where calls come from without knowing the address.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 03, 2022, 01:05:PM




Scratches from Sheila's long nails, a kitchen utensil used to bash the assailant and Nevill to knock the rifle out of the hands of the killer. 3 adults, kitchen utensils/ pans/ pokers near the Aga---anything and everything to hand in a kitchen. You'd muster up the energy from somewhere if someone entered the farmhouse----while another would quickly dial the police as they can trace where calls come from without knowing the address.


I'm certain such could be made to work perfectly on a film set or staging a play in which the assailant gets caught by the police. However, in a real life situation, when the assailant is revealed to be one's child? I wouldn't expect such a prescribed outcome.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 01:14:PM
Good that you don't buy into 'Bill's' theories.





What do you mean ? JB didn't have a mark on him !
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 01:15:PM




What do you mean ? JB didn't have a mark on him !





That's who you mean, isn't it ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 01:18:PM
There is no evidence that Nevill or June had any chance to fight back after getting shot and this is one of the facts that make JB the more likely killer because if NB is ambushed in bed, runs downstairs injured and is retreating, perhaps with the use of only one arm, this is no struggle, it's a one sided battering and execution. 

I would say a crazed Sheila could be put in the same position but you have to allow NB being downstairs to make a phone call to Jeremy and then going upstairs to get shot. Consider also that JB's hands would be tougher and less prone to marks and abrasions from say, wielding a gun like a club.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 03, 2022, 01:29:PM
What do you mean ? JB didn't have a mark on him !

You said "his attacker was completely unmarked".  I thought you believed his attacker was Sheila?  If you do then you don't buy into 'Bill's' theories. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 01:34:PM
There is no evidence that Nevill or June had any chance to fight back after getting shot and this is one of the facts that make JB the more likely killer because if NB is ambushed in bed, runs downstairs injured and is retreating, perhaps with the use of only one arm, this is no struggle, it's a one sided battering and execution. 

I would say a crazed Sheila could be put in the same position but you have to allow NB being downstairs to make a phone call to Jeremy and then going upstairs to get shot. Consider also that JB's hands would be tougher and less prone to marks and abrasions from say, wielding a gun like a club.





With Sheila having once or twice punched solid walls, I'd have seen no problem in her using every bit of strength if only to protect her children.
I'm saying that there would be injury marks to an assailant who would have had their back to at least one person while attacking the others. It doesn't ring true to me at all.
Why most of the bullets spent on all but one person ? And again, why the gap of at least 2 hours between having shot the parents leaving one comparatively newly shot ?

I say 2 hours because the features of the parents show loss through rigor mortis, Sheila's doesn't.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 03, 2022, 01:38:PM
With Sheila having once or twice punched solid walls, I'd have seen no problem in her using every bit of strength if only to protect her children.
I'm saying that there would be injury marks to an assailant who would have had their back to at least one person while attacking the others. It doesn't ring true to me at all.
Why most of the bullets spent on all but one person ? And again, why the gap of at least 2 hours between having shot the parents leaving one comparatively newly shot ?

I say 2 hours because the features of the parents show loss through rigor mortis, Sheila's doesn't.

Coz Bamber wanted it to look like Sheila took her own life.  He was lucky he got away with 2 for a month. 

There's no evidence any victim died later than the others.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 01:40:PM
Coz Bamber wanted it to look like Sheila took her own life.  He was lucky he got away with 2 for a month. 

There's no evidence any victim died later than the others.





Says you.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 01:45:PM
Sure, nobody is saying that Sheila wasn't somehow capable but the haloperidol, her lack of coordination, lack of interest in and experience of guns ( and particularly that gun) coupled with the relatively clean state she was found in all count against her being definitely ruled in.

I believe one of the factors in RM is age, temperature is also a factor and NB was right next to the aga. Did  the bedrooms have central heating and was it on? Most people tend to turn heating off during the night.

In the scenario of Jeremy Bamber being the killer, he doesn't need to have his back to anybody if he ambushes them in their beds.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 02:04:PM
Sure, nobody is saying that Sheila wasn't somehow capable but the haloperidol, her lack of coordination, lack of interest in and experience of guns ( and particularly that gun) coupled with the relatively clean state she was found in all count against her being definitely ruled in.

I believe one of the factors in RM is age, temperature is also a factor and NB was right next to the aga. Did  the bedrooms have central heating and was it on? Most people tend to turn heating off during the night.

In the scenario of Jeremy Bamber being the killer, he doesn't need to have his back to anybody if he ambushes them in their beds.





They weren't all in their beds though. Sheila's bed hadn't been slept in and because Nevill was still downstairs would have been taken unawares with Sheila wandering about. The two of them had a cup of tea in the kitchen as Sheila also had a snack.
Nevill would have had a late night due to getting the harvest in, then taking the dogs out after which he'd sit with a drink and cigarette----all passing the time before a shower downstairs in case he wakened the children and June if he'd been upstairs.

After that, no person on this earth can say what happened because none of us were there. Which is why the last man standing, JB in this case, got the blame.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 04:41:PM

They weren't all in their beds though. Sheila's bed hadn't been slept in and because Nevill was still downstairs would have been taken unawares with Sheila wandering about. The two of them had a cup of tea in the kitchen as Sheila also had a snack.
Nevill would have had a late night due to getting the harvest in, then taking the dogs out after which he'd sit with a drink and cigarette----all passing the time before a shower downstairs in case he wakened the children and June if he'd been upstairs.

After that, no person on this earth can say what happened because none of us were there. Which is why the last man standing, JB in this case, got the blame.

I thought Sheila's bed had looked slept in and so did Nevill's - although I never plump my pillows or make the bed after I have gotten out of it so it's hardly conclusive but other evidence suggests Sheila went to bed quite early and they did have a housekeeper to make the beds each day.

I agree though that if Sheila was the killer, she and Nevill have to be downstairs and her undigested stomach contents would suggest she maybe got up to have a snack. In my scenario, NB has either fallen asleep in his chair or hears her downstairs and gets out of bed to investigate. The only bit I have real trouble picturing is the part when Nevill decides to call JB.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 03, 2022, 05:24:PM
I thought Sheila's bed had looked slept in and so did Nevill's - although I never plump my pillows or make the bed after I have gotten out of it so it's hardly conclusive but other evidence suggests Sheila went to bed quite early and they did have a housekeeper to make the beds each day.

I agree though that if Sheila was the killer, she and Nevill have to be downstairs and her undigested stomach contents would suggest she maybe got up to have a snack. In my scenario, NB has either fallen asleep in his chair or hears her downstairs and gets out of bed to investigate. The only bit I have real trouble picturing is the part when Nevill decides to call JB.







Going to bed is one thing but actually going to sleep is another. Did Sheila sleep ? We don't know, nobody does. Sheila may have just lain on top of the bed as her sleeping habits were hit and miss.
Then again, Sheila could have got into bed with her mother because Nevill's slippers were partly under Sheila's bed. He could well have just lain on top rather than wake June who was another light-sleeper.

 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 05:51:PM

Going to bed is one thing but actually going to sleep is another. Did Sheila sleep ? We don't know, nobody does. Sheila may have just lain on top of the bed as her sleeping habits were hit and miss.
Then again, Sheila could have got into bed with her mother because Nevill's slippers were partly under Sheila's bed. He could well have just lain on top rather than wake June who was another light-sleeper.

These are all things we are unlikely to ever know but I suppose it is possible that Sheila lays awake, brooding over the dinner time talk of foster carers and working herself into a state.

Interestingly, and I haven't seen Theroux's film myself, but I heard Barbara Wilson recently gave some support to JB's claim that Nevill and June had been discussing foster care as a possible means of helping Sheila see more of her boys.

I'm not aware of BW ever expressing this before and I'm not sure how reliable her memory can be after all this time but it is interesting and those who have previously dismissed JB's account because Colin would not have allowed it, including myself, should maybe have some pause for thought here and also consider that regardless of Colin's views, June and Nevill may well have stuck their noses in out of genuine concern and rather than see that this was well intentioned, Sheila may have heard the word "fostering" and gone down a dark path.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 03, 2022, 06:00:PM
These are all things we are unlikely to ever know but I suppose it is possible that Sheila lays awake, brooding over the dinner time talk of foster carers and working herself into a state.

Interestingly, and I haven't seen Theroux's film myself, but I heard Barbara Wilson recently gave some support to JB's claim that Nevill and June had been discussing foster care as a possible means of helping Sheila see more of her boys.

I'm not aware of BW ever expressing this before and I'm not sure how reliable her memory can be after all this time but it is interesting and those who have previously dismissed JB's account because Colin would not have allowed it, including myself, should maybe have some pause for thought here and also consider that regardless of Colin's views, June and Nevill may well have stuck their noses in out of genuine concern and rather than see that this was well intentioned, Sheila may have heard the word "fostering" and gone down a dark path.

I don't believe BW can, in any way, be considered reliable. In the immediacy of the shootings, she, allegedly said JB was polite and better to her than her own son. Further down the road, she claimed to have been scared of him. There is also the point that the Bambers, by now, would be in their mid 90's. I doubt BW is very much younger. How good is her recall?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 03, 2022, 06:01:PM
It is strange that people try to complicate a straight forward scenario that matches the evidence.

QC has Nevill sleeping downstairs & fighting Bamber upon entrance.

No I do not.  That is not the scenario.

I have Nevill downstairs - not asleep - and Jeremy does not struggle with him. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 06:06:PM
I don't believe BW can, in any way, be considered reliable. In the immediacy of the shootings, she, allegedly said JB was polite and better to her than her own son. Further down the road, she claimed to have been scared of him. There is also the point that the Bambers, by now, would be in their mid 90's. I doubt BW is very much younger. How good is her recall?

Yes, if she had mentioned this in 1985 it would mean a lot more but nevertheless, it gave me pause to reflect on whether such a conversation could have taken place.

Dr Julia Shaw says that our memories are not like a video we can rewind and replay, they are more like a wikipedia page that we can go in and edit - and other people can edit them too.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 03, 2022, 06:10:PM
I thought Sheila's bed had looked slept in and so did Nevill's - although I never plump my pillows or make the bed after I have gotten out of it so it's hardly conclusive but other evidence suggests Sheila went to bed quite early and they did have a housekeeper to make the beds each day.



That's a (Sheila's) slept bed, the one on the left now thats not slept/unused. Clear pillow indentation, bedspread and cover turned, gathering of sheet near the side of the pillow.  We can't ignore photographic evidence. This actually originates from Scott Lomax in my opinion. He said Sheila was wondering around and did not sleep at all that night, an astonishing claim, I asked him how he would know this, his answer was the bed was unslept/made. Hmmmm I wouldn't call that a made bed.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Steve_uk on January 03, 2022, 06:17:PM
I don't believe BW can, in any way, be considered reliable. In the immediacy of the shootings, she, allegedly said JB was polite and better to her than her own son. Further down the road, she claimed to have been scared of him. There is also the point that the Bambers, by now, would be in their mid 90's. I doubt BW is very much younger. How good is her recall?
But she did testify on oath. If one considers that Barbara was an employee of N&J Bamber and Jeremy became her employer, albeit for only a short period, it might well explain why she tried at the time to accommodate herself to the situation.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 03, 2022, 06:21:PM
But she did testify on oath. If one considers that Barbara was an employee of N&J Bamber and Jeremy became her employer, albeit for only a short period, it might well explain why she tried at the time to accommodate herself to the situation.

I'm inclined to go along with that, Steve. The first statement MAY have been made out of fears of reprisal. By the time she made the second statement, the danger had been removed.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 06:22:PM

That's a (Sheila's) slept bed, the one on the left now thats not slept/unused. Clear pillow indentation, bedspread and cover turned, gathering of sheet near the side of the pillow.  We can't ignore photographic evidence. This actually originates from Scott Lomax in my opinion. He said Sheila was wondering around and did not sleep at all that night, an astonishing claim, I asked him how he would know this, his answer was the bed was unslept/made. Hmmmm I wouldn't call that a made bed.

Scott Lomax is a terrible writer with little ability to be objective and paper thin skin in my opinion. There is/was a review of his book on amazon where someone has offered the opinion that his views come across as misogynistic and he makes a proper fool of himself by threatening to sue!  He deleted his twitter account around the time of the ITV drama because people kept pointing out all of the factual errors in his book.

There is an article online where he claims that NB didn't receive any injuries apart from gunshots and I think he was the origin of the rabbit's blood nonsense as well. With all these clowns,  JB appears to be running a circus.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 06:33:PM
No I do not.  That is not the scenario.

I have Nevill downstairs - not asleep - and Jeremy does not struggle with him.

Nevill is downstairs & awake at 2am. In pyjamas and bare footed.

Jeremy does not struggle with him. What did he do, make him a coffee?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 03, 2022, 06:34:PM
Nevill is downstairs & awake at 2am. In pyjamas and bare footed.

Jeremy does not struggle with him. What did he do, make him a coffee?

No.  Jeremy shot him.

And it's 1 a.m., not 2 a.m.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 06:44:PM
No.  Jeremy shot him.

And it's 1 a.m., not 2 a.m.

Have you not seen the evidence?

There is a violent fight in the kitchen. Nevill was brutally beaten & had horrific injuries.

Nevill was also shot 4 times in the main bedroom.

Sorry to put a dampner on your scenario with evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 03, 2022, 06:51:PM
Have you not seen the evidence?

There is a violent fight in the kitchen. Nevill was brutally beaten & had horrific injuries.

Nevill was also shot 4 times in the main bedroom.

Sorry to put a dampner on your scenario with evidence.

I'm sorry, are you suggesting I have not seen the evidence?  I'm baffled as to why you would ask me such a fatuous question.

Has it occurred to you that the evidence you refer to is open to interpretation and that there may be more than one explanation for it?

For instance, if Jeremy is the culprit, he may have shot Nevill but also bludgeoned him.  He need not have 'struggled' with him.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 03, 2022, 07:04:PM
Scott Lomax is a terrible writer with little ability to be objective and paper thin skin in my opinion. There is/was a review of his book on amazon where someone has offered the opinion that his views come across as misogynistic and he makes a proper fool of himself by threatening to sue!  He deleted his twitter account around the time of the ITV drama because people kept pointing out all of the factual errors in his book.

There is an article online where he claims that NB didn't receive any injuries apart from gunshots and I think he was the origin of the rabbit's blood nonsense as well. With all these clowns,  JB appears to be running a circus.

I knew of  this case and heard the name Jeremy Bamber for the first time through Scott's book! I "like" a bit of conspiracy and I know Police can be/are corrupted. So this should have made me tilt towards Bamber's innocence and I was reading a pro-Bamber book. But Scott's book had too much speculations the sources were not clear, a hell of a lot of suppositions too, I know he was trying hard but the content did not convience me of Bamber's innocence at all. At the end I ended up with more questions than answers.

To be fair he said he did not have much experience and he was young 25 when he wrote that book.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 07:48:PM
I knew of  this case and heard the name Jeremy Bamber for the first time through Scott's book! I "like" a bit of conspiracy and I know Police can be/are corrupted. So this should have made me tilt towards Bamber's innocence and I was reading a pro-Bamber book. But Scott's book had too much speculations the sources were not clear, a hell of a lot of suppositions too, I know he was trying hard but the content did not convience me of Bamber's innocence at all. At the end I ended up with more questions than answers.

To be fair he said he did not have much experience and he was young 25 when he wrote that book.

It's years since I read it but someone pointed out that the first factual error is on page 1 where he writes that JB speaks to PC West shortly before 3.20 which there is zero evidence for but at the time it was written, JB still had an interest in minimising the time between NB's alleged call and finally putting down the phone book.

There are other factual errors and muddled, contradictory passages that people tore him a new one for while he was trying to promote it as the only truthful book. At one point he tried to claim it was outselling CAL and CC on amazon but he was actually 10,000 or so places below them both.  I felt a bit sorry for him really, we all like a bit of conspiracy and intrigue.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 03, 2022, 07:59:PM
It's years since I read it but someone pointed out that the first factual error is on page 1 where he writes that JB speaks to PC West shortly before 3.20 which there is zero evidence for but at the time it was written, JB still had an interest in minimising the time between NB's alleged call and finally putting down the phone book.

There are other factual errors and muddled, contradictory passages that people tore him a new one for while he was trying to promote it as the only truthful book. At one point he tried to claim it was outselling CAL and CC on amazon but he was actually 10,000 or so places below them both.  I felt a bit sorry for him really, we all like a bit of conspiracy and intrigue.


Then there's Clare Powell, whose book, written years after the event, gives us details of a dialogue which passes between Sheila and June at the supper table, as if she was there and party to it!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 08:07:PM

Then there's Clare Powell, whose book, written years after the event, gives us details of a dialogue which passes between Sheila and June at the supper table, as if she was there and party to it!

Oh dear! I've never read that one. There must be a lot of pressure to come up with something new or a different angle when it's been written about extensively already. I thought CAL made a good effort by trying to show the personalities of everyone involved and of course, she upset the supporters by not concluding he was innocent but I'm not aware of her making anything up.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 03, 2022, 08:11:PM
Oh dear! I've never read that one. There must be a lot of pressure to come up with something new or a different angle when it's been written about extensively already. I thought CAL made a good effort by trying to show the personalities of everyone involved and of course, she upset the supporters by not concluding he was innocent but I'm not aware of her making anything up.

Nor I. But I don't think she laboured pro guilt in a way she might have. I thought her White House history was evocative in setting the scene.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 08:29:PM
I'm sorry, are you suggesting I have not seen the evidence?  I'm baffled as to why you would ask me such a fatuous question.

Has it occurred to you that the evidence you refer to is open to interpretation and that there may be more than one explanation for it?

For instance, if Jeremy is the culprit, he may have shot Nevill but also bludgeoned him.  He need not have 'struggled' with him.

Well if he confronted Nevill upon entrance, he had 11 bullets he could fire in the kitchen.

Although the evidence is Nevill was shot 4 times in the kitchen.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 08:45:PM
The evidence is Bamber & Nevill struggled for the rifle. Scratched aga, smashed ceiling light, upturned furniture, sugar on the floor.

However it is correct Nevill was in defence mode after being shot 4 times upstairs. Together with being bare footed and in pyjamas.

This resulted in the damage to Nevill's eyes, nose, head, arms, torso and watch. Together with the rifle stock breaking.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 03, 2022, 09:02:PM
The evidence is Bamber & Nevill struggled for the rifle. Scratched aga, smashed ceiling light, upturned furniture, sugar on the floor.

However it is correct Nevill was in defence mode after being shot 4 times upstairs. Together with being bare footed and in pyjamas.

This resulted in the damage to Nevill's eyes, nose, head, arms, torso and watch. Together with the rifle stock breaking.

Sugar Adam? I thought the police accidentally spilled this during the raid?


Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 03, 2022, 09:07:PM
242.

We take the statements of PC Collins and PC Delgado as clear statements that apart from moving two stools they moved no other furniture.

The statements from some 10 other TFG officers indicate that there was no other movement of furniture and certainly no spillage of sugar attributable to any officer.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 09:08:PM
Sugar Adam? I thought the police accidentally spilled this during the raid?

That's in Ann eaton's notes but no officer ever owned up to it so there is some uncertainty.

Come to think of it, was this brought up at trial or is this an actual piece of evidence that was withheld?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 03, 2022, 09:18:PM
That's in Ann eaton's notes but no officer ever owned up to it so there is some uncertainty.

Come to think of it, was this brought up at trial or is this an actual piece of evidence that was withheld?

I seem to be getting forgetful! I thought the police admitted spilling the sugar?

But if it was all over the floor, PV to my knowledge made no mention of sugar on Nevil's feet?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 03, 2022, 09:36:PM
I seem to be getting forgetful! I thought the police admitted spilling the sugar?

But if it was all over the floor, PV to my knowledge made no mention of sugar on Nevil's feet?

That's a good point. Others may know better but I don't recall sugar being on Nevill's feet and I don't think he was wearing socks or slippers?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 03, 2022, 11:34:PM
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 12:03:AM
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

This same discussion appears to be on two current threads.

I agree, there doesn't need to be any "struggle" or "fight" in the kitchen, If an injured Nevill is being closely followed by the killer and takes a whack to the head knocking him down, it's game over. The smashed light and scratches on the aga can be explained without anybody struggling over the gun.

On the one hand yes, it would seem odd for Nevill to just run off downstairs leaving the killer with June, not knowing if the killer would follow ( whether he knew they were out of ammo or not ) but on the other hand, Nevill had been shot and was badly hurt already. Who knows what he had been confronted with? A masked man with a gun? Maybe he got cocked on the head with the butt of the rifle as he tries to confront the killer. Maybe his survival instinct kicked in and there was no thought involved.

IMO it is much less likely that he runs downstairs from Sheila.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:10:AM
This same discussion appears to be on two current threads.

I agree, there doesn't need to be any "struggle" or "fight" in the kitchen, If an injured Nevill is being closely followed by the killer and takes a whack to the head knocking him down, it's game over. The smashed light and scratches on the aga can be explained without anybody struggling over the gun.

On the one hand yes, it would seem odd for Nevill to just run off downstairs leaving the killer with June, not knowing if the killer would follow ( whether he knew they were out of ammo or not ) but on the other hand, Nevill had been shot and was badly hurt already. Who knows what he had been confronted with? A masked man with a gun? Maybe he got cocked on the head with the butt of the rifle as he tries to confront the killer. Maybe his survival instinct kicked in and there was no thought involved.

IMO it is much less likely that he runs downstairs from Sheila.

If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:29:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Nevill got hit on the head in the kitchen. Multiple times. Together with the face, arms & torso.

He died there.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:30:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Fleeing from a shooting gun man.

Probable. Not improbable.

The evidence shows it happened.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:32:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Apart from -

He was bare footed in his bed attire.

His bed was upstairs.

It was 2am.

He was shot 4 times in the main bedroom.


But keep with your scenario.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:35:AM
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom.  The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

Yes Bamber does run out of ammunition upstairs. The rifle held 11 bullets. Not 30.

I will post my scenario again. It matches the crime scene. Yours doesn't.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:36:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:37:AM
A struggle is more likely if Sheila is the killer, in my opinion.

Why does Nevill have to struggle with Jeremy at all?

As usual, I've been over this with Adam before, at length, back in 2020.  Not that Adam ever listens, but he did concede in the end that in order for his scenario to stand up, Jeremy has to run out of ammunition upstairs, which is how Nevill gets past him and also explains the 'struggle' in the kitchen.

I did ask Adam why Nevill doesn't just fight or struggle with Jeremy in the master bedroom. The only explanation we could come up with is that Nevill wants to draw Jeremy away from the twins.  I'm not convinced, personally.

How would I know? But the evidence shows Nevill went downstsirs.

Maybe because Bamber had shot him 4 times.

Or maybe Bamber went downstairs to re load. Confident Nevill was negated. Nevill followed him. More doubtful in my view.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:39:AM
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

The hallway carpets were not tested.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:39:AM
Yes Bamber does run out of ammunition upstairs. The rifle held 11 bullets. Not 30.

I will post my scenario again. It matches the crime scene. Yours doesn't.

Please, if you wish to post your scenario again, could you do so on your own thread?  No scenario in this case is going to be without problems.  I believe the scenarios I have posted do match the crime scene.

I know the rifle held 30 bullets and I have Jeremy re-loading in my scenario.  Why do you lie and twist what people say?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:40:AM
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

Because he had been shot 4 times & Bamber was young & fit?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:42:AM
The hallway carpets were not tested.

The carpets either have visible blood on them or they don't.  DCI Jones did record his observation of specks of what appeared to be blood on the main stair carpet in his pocketbook, when he was examining the scene on the morning of the 7th., but these was not tested - probably because the traces were not susceptible to testing, as I am sure SOC officers would have noticed it.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:42:AM
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

What problems?

We can't accept it. The evidence shows Nevill was shot 4 times in his bedroom.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:46:AM
It is strange that QC does not accept a straight forward scenario which matches the crime scene evidence.

Instead Nevill sleeps downstairs & is not shot in the main bedroom!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:49:AM
Here is a more straight forward scenario. Which matches the evidence.

Cycle to WHF:

Evidence - June's bike brought over to Bamber's cottage just before massacre.  Easy journey. Unseen.


Get into WHF

Evidence - Bathroom window loose or open. Quiet ground floor entrance. Bamber said he knew how to get in through this window.

Pick up rifle:

Evidence ' Rifle available as stated by Bamber.


Fire one bullet into each twin.

Evidence - Julie said the twins were shot first.


Enter main bedroom:

Evidence - Two adults in this room who must be killed with remaining 9 bullets as potential to provide most resistance.


Shoot an in bed June and Neville:

Evidence - 9 shots were fired in the main bedroom opening salvo suggesting rifle was emptied in opening salvo.   June and Neville shot in or near the bed.


Go to reload or chase Neville:

Evidence - Spare bullets found in kitchen. Neville found in kitchen.


Kitchen fight:

Evidence - Neville was brutally beaten there.  Upturned and smashed kitchen items. Scratch marks on aga.


Reload, shoot and kill a knocked out Neville:

Evidence - Four kitchen head shots into Neville.


Reload. Return upstairs:

Evidence - All other shots upstairs.


Shoot June twice more:

Evidence - June had moved a few feet. Final shots required. Two of June's 7 shots would have killed her quickly.


Shoot the sleeping twins more times

Evidence - Twins shot 8 times in bed. Amount of bullets used shows two reloads carried out on the night.


Either wake and shoot or shoot an already awake Sheila:

Evidence - Sheila found shot in the corner of main bedroom. Sheila on Haloperidol so easy to control.


Go downstairs to check on Nevill

Evidence - Nevill was downstairs.


Remove & replace silencer. Move Nevill. Burn his back.

Evidence - Silencer with Sheila's blood & aga paint on/in found in cupboard. Nevill's back burnt. Nevill lifted onto coal scuttle.


Stage the scene:

Evidence - Gun and bible by Sheila.


Exit out of kitchen window:


Evidence - Twenty sources say it can be banged shut from outside. Housekeeper said items moved by kitchen window.on night of massacre.


Cycle home:

Evidence - Bike found at Bambers cottage

Not sure what more I can do.

Really supporters need to create a straight forward Sheila scenario.

QC did eventually create a scenario. But instantly complained to NGB when I started asking questions.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 12:50:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

Not if he just stumbles backwards towards the landing from it. The blood on the wallpaper suggests he may have been leaning against the walls as he went, it's unlikely he was too steady on his feet. He's maybe dizzy from the shot to the jaw. JB may have followed him aiming further blows as he retreats down the stairs?


As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.


I see your point but you create the problem with the casings. There are now too many casings upstairs! How do you explain the blood on the wallpaper? I believe there was a spot of blood on the landing carpet too - it's unlikely June made it that far and she would have left far more blood if she was crawling?

I do like thinking outside the box though. How about, Sheila goes upstairs and shoots the boys, Nevill races after her, see's what she has done, takes the gun off her and uses the last two bullets to shoot her dead. June starts screaming which gets on Nevill's last nerve so he goes and reloads and shoots her too. When the police eventually burst in he waves the gun at them and they shoot him 8 times in the kitchen. Realising this looks bad, they call the industrial frame department...

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:52:AM
It is strange that QC does not accept a straight forward scenario which matches the crime scene evidence.

Instead Nevill sleeps downstairs & is not shot in the main bedroom!

My scenario does match the crime scene evidence, which I interpret differently to you.  Please stop with these repetitive goading posts in which you comment on me rather than the case.  Please also stop diluting the thread by repeatedly copying and pasting my posts in order to make one-line comments.  You are entitled to criticise my posts, but the way you are going about it is annoying and I believe that is your intention.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:55:AM
My scenario does match the crime scene evidence, which I interpret differently to you.  Please stop with these repetitive goading posts in which you comment on me rather than the case.  Please also stop diluting the thread by repeatedly copying and pasting my posts in order to make one-line comments.  You are entitled to criticise my posts, but the way you are going about it is annoying and I believe that is your intention.

Does Nevill get shot in the main bedroom?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:56:AM
Not if he just stumbles backwards towards the landing from it. The blood on the wallpaper suggests he may have been leaning against the walls as he went, it's unlikely he was too steady on his feet. He's maybe dizzy from the shot to the jaw. JB may have followed him aiming further blows as he retreats down the stairs?
 

I see your point but you create the problem with the casings. There are now too many casings upstairs! How do you explain the blood on the wallpaper? I believe there was a spot of blood on the landing carpet too - it's unlikely June made it that far and she would have left far more blood if she was crawling?

I do like thinking outside the box though. How about, Sheila goes upstairs and shoots the boys, Nevill races after her, see's what she has done, takes the gun off her and uses the last two bullets to shoot her dead. June starts screaming which gets on Nevill's last nerve so he goes and reloads and shoots her too. When the police eventually burst in he waves the gun at them and they shoot him 8 times in the kitchen. Realising this looks bad, they call the industrial frame department...

What do you think of my scenario?

QC thinks it is 'improbable' that Nevill leaves the bedroom after being shot 4 times.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 12:59:AM
I see your point but you create the problem with the casings. There are now too many casings upstairs!

I've already explained that the position of the casings cannot be relied on.  Police officers in heavy tread boots were traipsing all over the scene.

Blood was found on the landing.  I don't see why that could not have come from June.  It wasn't tested.  If Nevill is the one leaving the blood, why doesn't he leave similar blood stains on the upper part of the main stairway?

I do like thinking outside the box though. How about, Sheila goes upstairs and shoots the boys, Nevill races after her, see's what she has done, takes the gun off her and uses the last two bullets to shoot her dead. June starts screaming which gets on Nevill's last nerve so he goes and reloads and shoots her too. When the police eventually burst in he waves the gun at them and they shoot him 8 times in the kitchen. Realising this looks bad, they call the industrial frame department...

I don't understand the relevance of this.  I don't pretend that any scenario I come up with is going to be flawless, but I have not suggested anything out of the ordinary.

The only person who goes on about an 'industrial frame department' is Adam.  It's a silly response, and I lampooned it by suggesting that Jeremy should consult with an optician about obtaining some stylish industrial aesthetic glasses.

Yet, as I stated on another thread, there was a real 'industrial frame department' - at the Post Office.  And that is not the only example.  However, I have not suggested that this case has those features.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 12:59:AM
Not if he just stumbles backwards towards the landing from it. The blood on the wallpaper suggests he may have been leaning against the walls as he went, it's unlikely he was too steady on his feet. He's maybe dizzy from the shot to the jaw. JB may have followed him aiming further blows as he retreats down the stairs?
 

I see your point but you create the problem with the casings. There are now too many casings upstairs! How do you explain the blood on the wallpaper? I believe there was a spot of blood on the landing carpet too - it's unlikely June made it that far and she would have left far more blood if she was crawling?

I do like thinking outside the box though. How about, Sheila goes upstairs and shoots the boys, Nevill races after her, see's what she has done, takes the gun off her and uses the last two bullets to shoot her dead. June starts screaming which gets on Nevill's last nerve so he goes and reloads and shoots her too. When the police eventually burst in he waves the gun at them and they shoot him 8 times in the kitchen. Realising this looks bad, they call the industrial frame department...

You really need to provide a Sheila or Bamber scenario.

Please ensure both match the crime scene evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:01:AM
I've already explained that the position of the casings cannot be relied on.  Police officers in heavy tread boots were traipsing all over the scene.

Blood was found on the landing.  I don't see why that could not have come from June.  It wasn't tested.  If Nevill is the one leaving the blood, why doesn't he leave similar blood stains on the upper part of the main stairway?

I don't understand the relevance of this.  I don't pretend that any scenario I come up with is going to be flawless, but I have not suggested anything out of the ordinary.

The only person who goes on about an 'industrial frame department' is Adam.  It's a silly response, and I lampooned it by suggesting that Jeremy should consult with an optician about obtaining some stylish industrial aesthetic glasses.

Yet, as I stated on another thread, there was a real 'industrial frame department' - at the Post Office.  And that is not the only example.  However, I have not suggested that this case has those features.

Doubtful officers would move one casing. Let alone 4.

Bamber & Sheila scenarios must match the crime scene.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:02:AM
I've already explained that the position of the casings cannot be relied on.  Police officers in heavy tread boots were traipsing all over the scene.

Blood was found on the landing.  I don't see why that could not have come from June.  It wasn't tested.  If Nevill is the one leaving the blood, why doesn't he leave similar blood stains on the upper part of the main stairway?

I don't understand the relevance of this.  I don't pretend that any scenario I come up with is going to be flawless, but I have not suggested anything out of the ordinary.

The only person who goes on about an 'industrial frame department' is Adam.  It's a silly response, and I lampooned it by suggesting that Jeremy should consult with an optician about obtaining some stylish industrial aesthetic glasses.

Yet, as I stated on another thread, there was a real 'industrial frame department' - at the Post Office.  And that is not the only example.  However, I have not suggested that this case has those features.

June did not leave the bedroom.

The evidence shows this.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 01:05:AM
What do you think of my scenario?

QC thinks it is 'improbable' that Nevill leaves the bedroom after being shot 4 times.

It's the most straightforward scenario for JB being the killer and the one I personally believe to be most likely but I am open to other suggestions.

I don't find that improbable at all.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:08:AM
It's the most straightforward scenario for JB being the killer and the one I personally believe to be most likely but I am open to other suggestions.

I don't find that improbable at all.

Thank you.

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:11:AM
It's the most straightforward scenario for JB being the killer and the one I personally believe to be most likely but I am open to other suggestions.

I don't find that improbable at all.

QC is certainly giving 'other suggestions'.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:13:AM
The 4 casings in the main bedroom where QC says Nevill 'didn't' sleep. Where did the police kick them from?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 01:28:AM
I've already explained that the position of the casings cannot be relied on.  Police officers in heavy tread boots were traipsing all over the scene.

So they accidentally picked up 4 casings and managed to deposit them all in the bedroom?

Blood was found on the landing.  I don't see why that could not have come from June.  It wasn't tested.  If Nevill is the one leaving the blood, why doesn't he leave similar blood stains on the upper part of the main stairway?

Possible I suppose. Somebody has pointed out before that both June and Sheila's feet appear to be at unnatural angles, as if they have been dragged by them but I would have expected more blood or smears of blood on the hall carpet

I don't understand the relevance of this.  I don't pretend that any scenario I come up with is going to be flawless, but I have not suggested anything out of the ordinary.

The only person who goes on about an 'industrial frame department' is Adam.  It's a silly response, and I lampooned it by suggesting that Jeremy should consult with an optician about obtaining some stylish industrial aesthetic glasses.

Yet, as I stated on another thread, there was a real 'industrial frame department' - at the Post Office.  And that is not the only example.  However, I have not suggested that this case has those features.

I was being flippant but my point really was that you can create all kinds of scenarios that roughly fit the evidence because there are so many loose ends to pull on. Jeremy Bamber and his CT certainly believe in an industrial frame and there is a tendency with some to substitute a conspiracy for rational thought if it gets them where they want. The evidence doesn't lend itself well to any straightforward scenario no matter who the killer was.

I haven't got around to reading very much about the PO scandal yet so I can't really comment but yes, conspiracies do happen, just as miscarriages of justice do

Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:33:AM
The 4 casings in the main bedroom where QC says Nevill 'didn't' sleep. Where did the police kick them from?

I look forward to a reply.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 01:34:AM
You really need to provide a Sheila or Bamber scenario.

Please ensure both match the crime scene evidence.

My Bamber scenario would match yours pretty much. The details can't be known so won't quibble over them. 

My Sheila scenario would be similar to QC's as he is the only one that has ever come close to getting Nevill on the phone to JB without sounding utterly ridiculous. (Although to be fair to other posters, I haven't read the entire contents of the forum)

I still think JB did it but I can respect those who have their doubts.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 01:38:AM
My Bamber scenario would match yours pretty much. The details can't be known so won't quibble over them. 

My Sheila scenario would be similar to QC's as he is the only one that has ever come close to getting Nevill on the phone to JB without sounding utterly ridiculous. (Although to be fair to other posters, I haven't read the entire contents of the forum)

I still think JB did it but I can respect those who have their doubts.

Thanks.

I will have to re read QC's Sheila scenario.

I dismissed it & forgot about it when he complained to NGB after I started asking questions.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 01:44:AM
@Armchair Detective

I did not say that Essex Police accidentally picked up four spent cartridges.  You can't accidentally pick something up with your hands.  But there would have been a lot of police activity in the main bedroom and officers would have moved from the kitchen to the main bedroom, each a focal point, and cartridges could have got stuck in boot treads and been kicked around.  You also have to remember that the trajectory of cartridges is not linear; once ejected, they can bounce anywhere in the vicinity.  If the killer is shooting from the landing or stairs downwards, cartridges could bounce back on to the landing and then end up in the master bedroom, as that's where the main police footfall is.

I don't accept that you can just create any scenario and interpret the evidence however you like.  I find the suggestion rather condescending, since it's not what I am doing.  In any event, this is a discussion forum.  I don't mind you and Adam coming up with your own scenarios and commenting on, critiquing and criticising mine.  I do mind being trolled.  It's annoying.

Anybody who accepts Adam's scenario has to resolve certain problems.  Why is June shot first?  How does Nevill escape from the main bedroom?  How is it that Nevill is shot in bed but leaves no blood in bed?  How is it that blood is absent from the carpet of the upper main stairway, yet Nevill must have been bleeding and putting his hand to wounds?  What about the stairway walls?  The bannister? Did Nevill deliberately not take hold of the bannister or touch the stairway walls so as not to make a mess?  Why doesn't Jeremy catch up with him? 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 10:01:AM
Why was Sheila's face different from that of her parents when they were allegedly all killed at the same time ? Facial muscles are the first affected during RM as they're not heavy like the rest of the body as there's a stark difference in appearance, no sign whatsoever of RM in Sheila's face ! It takes less than 2 hours to be noticeable.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:01:AM
If Jeremy was masked, Nevill would probably still recognise him.  I accept that we're dealing with an extraordinary situation, and Nevill may have just fled instinctively and without thinking at all.  I find it improbable, though.  If Nevill gets hit on the head with the rifle, then Nevill stays upstairs and he dies there.

As for Sheila, my scenario for her as the killer again has Nevill downstairs.  Quite simply, I see no evidence for the proposition that Nevill was upstairs that night.  Putting him downstairs solves a number of problems.

Bamber's defence counsel challenged at trial.  The expert evidence was that Mr Bamber sustained four gunshot wounds upstairs evidenced by the casings.  There's also two small bloodstains on the landing carpet that were tested (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence) and bloodstains on the stairs carpet evidenced by DCI Jones notebook and Mrs Eaton's wit stat.  In addition to this Mr Bamber's blood group matched blood found on wallpaper in the hall (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence)  DC Hammersley told the trial there was also a light distribution of blood on the kitchen floor (DC Hammersley trial testimony).  In other words a blood trail existed from the landing, down the stairs, hallway and across the kitchen.  If this didn't originate from Mr Bamber sustaining 4 gunshot wounds upstairs and then moving from upstairs to the kitchen evidenced by the blood trail, who do you think it did originate from and under what circumstances? 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:04:AM
Why was Sheila's face different from that of her parents when they were allegedly all killed at the same time ? Facial muscles are the first affected during RM as they're not heavy like the rest of the body as there's a stark difference in appearance, no sign whatsoever of RM in Sheila's face ! It takes less than 2 hours to be noticeable.

Just a pity that none of the officers or the police surgeon noticed at the scene.  Nor did two highly qualified pathologists of long experience notice on far better quality images that you have access to. 

Next... ::)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 10:06:AM
Just a pity that none of the officers or the police surgeon noticed at the scene.  Nor did two highly qualified pathologists of long experience notice on far better quality images that you have access to. 

Next... ::)






That's right---brush it to one side  ::) Professionals make mistakes you know !! Ian Thomlinson ??
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:10:AM
Just to continue this line of thought, in regard to the question of a 'struggle', I'm interpreting the scene through the likely perpetrator. 

In both scenarios, I have Nevill shot on the stairs with the perpetrator above him.  Nevill then runs back to the kitchen and the perpetrator follows. 

Then:

- if Jeremy is the perpetrator, I doubt there was a struggle.  Jeremy is strong enough to negate Nevill quickly and can simply shoot him and bludgeon him;

- if Sheila is the perpetrator, I allow that there could have been a struggle when they got back to the kitchen.

I don't pretend these scenarios are not without problems and flaws.  Where is the blood from Nevill en route to the kitchen?  Why doesn't Nevill out-run the killer and attempt to flee the house for one of the nearby cottages, or even go in the den?  These are similar to the problems with Adam's scenario, but they are of lesser significance as we don't have to explain Nevill passing Jeremy in the tight enclosed space of the bedroom and main landing while leaving no blood, and the related problem of how Nevill manages to reach even the bottom of the stairs without Jeremy catching him, never mind the kitchen. 

If, instead, we accept a scenario in which Nevill is downstairs, the problems can be resolved: Jeremy catches Nevill in the kitchen and Nevill is already severely injured and confused, etc.  In the case of Sheila, Nevill may have decided to disarm her first: a mistake, but understandable as it's his daughter.

See earlier post.  There is a clear blood trail from upstairs to the kitchen. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:11:AM
The carpets either have visible blood on them or they don't.  DCI Jones did record his observation of specks of what appeared to be blood on the main stair carpet in his pocketbook, when he was examining the scene on the morning of the 7th., but these was not tested - probably because the traces were not susceptible to testing, as I am sure SOC officers would have noticed it.

Soc officers did not notice it as they actually removed it by washing. 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 04, 2022, 10:11:AM
Why was Sheila's face different from that of her parents when they were allegedly all killed at the same time ? Facial muscles are the first affected during RM as they're not heavy like the rest of the body as there's a stark difference in appearance, no sign whatsoever of RM in Sheila's face ! It takes less than 2 hours to be noticeable.

There must be any number of variables which can be thrown into the mix. Top of the list being age and that Sheila, being very much premenopausal, still had a healthy supply of estragon.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 10:14:AM
There must be any number of variables which can be thrown into the mix. Top of the list being age and that Sheila, being very much premenopausal, still had a healthy supply of estragon.





Nothing to do with oestrogen Jane. It's the muscle that withers because of lack of blood supply, so therefore it sinks.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 10:20:AM
@Armchair Detective

I did not say that Essex Police accidentally picked up four spent cartridges.  You can't accidentally pick something up with your hands.  But there would have been a lot of police activity in the main bedroom and officers would have moved from the kitchen to the main bedroom, each a focal point, and cartridges could have got stuck in boot treads and been kicked around.  You also have to remember that the trajectory of cartridges is not linear; once ejected, they can bounce anywhere in the vicinity.  If the killer is shooting from the landing or stairs downwards, cartridges could bounce back on to the landing and then end up in the master bedroom, as that's where the main police footfall is.

I don't accept that you can just create any scenario and interpret the evidence however you like.  I find the suggestion rather condescending, since it's not what I am doing.  In any event, this is a discussion forum.  I don't mind you and Adam coming up with your own scenarios and commenting on, critiquing and criticising mine.  I do mind being trolled.  It's annoying.

Anybody who accepts Adam's scenario has to resolve certain problems.  Why is June shot first?  How does Nevill escape from the main bedroom?  How is it that Nevill is shot in bed but leaves no blood in bed?  How is it that blood is absent from the carpet of the upper main stairway, yet Nevill must have been bleeding and putting his hand to wounds?  What about the stairway walls?  The bannister? Did Nevill deliberately not take hold of the bannister or touch the stairway walls so as not to make a mess?  Why doesn't Jeremy catch up with him?

Where did the cartridges come from?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 10:22:AM
@Armchair Detective

I did not say that Essex Police accidentally picked up four spent cartridges.  You can't accidentally pick something up with your hands.  But there would have been a lot of police activity in the main bedroom and officers would have moved from the kitchen to the main bedroom, each a focal point, and cartridges could have got stuck in boot treads and been kicked around.  You also have to remember that the trajectory of cartridges is not linear; once ejected, they can bounce anywhere in the vicinity.  If the killer is shooting from the landing or stairs downwards, cartridges could bounce back on to the landing and then end up in the master bedroom, as that's where the main police footfall is.

I don't accept that you can just create any scenario and interpret the evidence however you like.  I find the suggestion rather condescending, since it's not what I am doing.  In any event, this is a discussion forum.  I don't mind you and Adam coming up with your own scenarios and commenting on, critiquing and criticising mine.  I do mind being trolled.  It's annoying.

Anybody who accepts Adam's scenario has to resolve certain problems.  Why is June shot first?  How does Nevill escape from the main bedroom?  How is it that Nevill is shot in bed but leaves no blood in bed?  How is it that blood is absent from the carpet of the upper main stairway, yet Nevill must have been bleeding and putting his hand to wounds?  What about the stairway walls?  The bannister? Did Nevill deliberately not take hold of the bannister or touch the stairway walls so as not to make a mess?  Why doesn't Jeremy catch up with him?

My scenario matches the evidence.

Yours has Nevill sleeping downstairs and the police kicking 4 unexplained cartridges through WHF.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:25:AM
I've already explained that the position of the casings cannot be relied on.  Police officers in heavy tread boots were traipsing all over the scene.

Blood was found on the landing.  I don't see why that could not have come from June.  It wasn't tested.  If Nevill is the one leaving the blood, why doesn't he leave similar blood stains on the upper part of the main stairway?

I don't understand the relevance of this.  I don't pretend that any scenario I come up with is going to be flawless, but I have not suggested anything out of the ordinary.

The only person who goes on about an 'industrial frame department' is Adam.  It's a silly response, and I lampooned it by suggesting that Jeremy should consult with an optician about obtaining some stylish industrial aesthetic glasses.

Yet, as I stated on another thread, there was a real 'industrial frame department' - at the Post Office.  And that is not the only example.  However, I have not suggested that this case has those features.

The blood on the landing was tested and a blood trail exists from upstairs to the kitchen.

You are struggling because you refuse to accept the expert evidence by way of pathology, ballistics and biology.  Mrs Bamber was shot initially with her head on the pillow x 2.  She then sustained 4 further gunshot wounds as she was lifting herself out of bed/by the bed.  If you care to look at the soc images you will see she was bleeding heavily at this point.  Bloodstains on the landing carpet amounted to two tiny stains.  If Mrs Bamber moved onto the landing after she was shot why would she stop bleeding profusely to leave just leave two tiny stains? 

Please bear in mind that Mrs Bamber sustained exit wounds which produce far more blood than entry wounds.  Mr Bamber did not sustain any exit wounds.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 10:27:AM
@Armchair Detective

I did not say that Essex Police accidentally picked up four spent cartridges.  You can't accidentally pick something up with your hands.  But there would have been a lot of police activity in the main bedroom and officers would have moved from the kitchen to the main bedroom, each a focal point, and cartridges could have got stuck in boot treads and been kicked around.  You also have to remember that the trajectory of cartridges is not linear; once ejected, they can bounce anywhere in the vicinity.  If the killer is shooting from the landing or stairs downwards, cartridges could bounce back on to the landing and then end up in the master bedroom, as that's where the main police footfall is.

I don't accept that you can just create any scenario and interpret the evidence however you like.  I find the suggestion rather condescending, since it's not what I am doing.  In any event, this is a discussion forum.  I don't mind you and Adam coming up with your own scenarios and commenting on, critiquing and criticising mine.  I do mind being trolled.  It's annoying.

Anybody who accepts Adam's scenario has to resolve certain problems.  Why is June shot first?  How does Nevill escape from the main bedroom?  How is it that Nevill is shot in bed but leaves no blood in bed?  How is it that blood is absent from the carpet of the upper main stairway, yet Nevill must have been bleeding and putting his hand to wounds?  What about the stairway walls?  The bannister? Did Nevill deliberately not take hold of the bannister or touch the stairway walls so as not to make a mess?  Why doesn't Jeremy catch up with him?

All answered previously. Weak questions from you.

Bamber shot Nevill and June 9 times. June first as she was nearer. Bamber thought neither would wake.

Nevill chose to escape the main bedroom. Bamber didn't stop him. Why? Only he knows.

The hallway carpet was not tested for blood.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:29:AM
That's right---brush it to one side  ::) Professionals make mistakes you know !! Ian Thomlinson ??

Professionals do make mistakes yes.  But in this regard you're not a professional and in 36 years no professional has even attempted to challenge the pathological evidence.  Hopefully this tells you all you need to know although I suspect not.

Next... ::)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 10:39:AM
Professionals do make mistakes yes.  But in this regard you're not a professional and in 36 years no professional has even attempted to challenge the pathological evidence.  Hopefully this tells you all you need to know although I suspect not.

Next... ::)





It's possible that among the fresh evidence that many anomalies will come to light using more up to date techniques which blows your archaic mind out of the water. 36 years on ? Tsk. Methuselah !  :o



Next !    ::)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:41:AM
Please, if you wish to post your scenario again, could you do so on your own thread?  No scenario in this case is going to be without problems.  I believe the scenarios I have posted do match the crime scene.

I know the rifle held 30 bullets and I have Jeremy re-loading in my scenario.  Why do you lie and twist what people say?

Try telling that to reconstruction experts.  This case has a mountain of data given 26 gunshots were discharged.  How do you think the Saville inquiry reached a conclusion?  How do you think the assassination of JFK was concluded?  How do you think experts in the states reconstruct shooting incidents?
What do you think the trial of Oscar Pistorius centered on? 
 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:42:AM
It's possible that among the fresh evidence that many anomalies will come to light using more up to date techniques which blows your archaic mind out of the water. 36 years on ? Tsk. Methuselah !  :o
Next !    ::)

If it has anything to do with the CT I doubt it very much.  If it has anything to do with the pathological evidence definitely not. 

Next... ::)
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 10:44:AM
Soc officers did notice it as they actually removed it by washing.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 10:44:AM
@Armchair Detective

I did not say that Essex Police accidentally picked up four spent cartridges.  You can't accidentally pick something up with your hands.  But there would have been a lot of police activity in the main bedroom and officers would have moved from the kitchen to the main bedroom, each a focal point, and cartridges could have got stuck in boot treads and been kicked around.  You also have to remember that the trajectory of cartridges is not linear; once ejected, they can bounce anywhere in the vicinity.  If the killer is shooting from the landing or stairs downwards, cartridges could bounce back on to the landing and then end up in the master bedroom, as that's where the main police footfall is.

I don't accept that you can just create any scenario and interpret the evidence however you like.  I find the suggestion rather condescending, since it's not what I am doing.  In any event, this is a discussion forum.  I don't mind you and Adam coming up with your own scenarios and commenting on, critiquing and criticising mine.  I do mind being trolled.  It's annoying.

Anybody who accepts Adam's scenario has to resolve certain problems.  Why is June shot first?  How does Nevill escape from the main bedroom?  How is it that Nevill is shot in bed but leaves no blood in bed?  How is it that blood is absent from the carpet of the upper main stairway, yet Nevill must have been bleeding and putting his hand to wounds?  What about the stairway walls?  The bannister? Did Nevill deliberately not take hold of the bannister or touch the stairway walls so as not to make a mess?  Why doesn't Jeremy catch up with him?

Sorry for the confusion QC, I could have worded that better, I know you didn't mean they had bent down and picked them up with their hands, here:

To explain the casings you now have experienced SOCO's or TFG unwittingly picking up casings on the soles of their boots and all four of them get walked upstairs and deposited again in the bedroom.No officers trained to be observant in a crime scene notice that they are disappearing/reappearing . None dislodge from the boots ?on the stairs or in any other rooms and the casings in the boys room remain undisturbed, (perhaps they were more careful in there) - why didn't the clumsy oafs walk in the blood too? Sorry but I'm not buying it, it was the SIO that was unprofessional with his assumptions, the rest made some mistakes but knew enough to be careful in a crime scene.

Here's a thought though, why not have JB move some of the casings to make it look like Nevill went to June's aid? 

I do agree that  if NB doesn't go upstairs  it solves some minor problems but in doing so, you create new ones that require just as much head scratching and supposition.

Adam's scenario is essentially the one the police believed the most likely but to save arguing about the unknowable, how about I just put your theory in the maybe pile along with all the others. :) 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 10:46:AM
Blimey, they couldn't even count 36 years ago so it doesn't say much for anything else that was carried out
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 10:49:AM
Sorry for the confusion QC, I could have worded that better, I know you didn't mean they had bent down and picked them up with their hands, here:

To explain the casings you now have experienced SOCO's or TFG unwittingly picking up casings on the soles of their boots and all four of them get walked upstairs and deposited again in the bedroom.No officers trained to be observant in a crime scene notice that they are disappearing/reappearing . None dislodge from the boots ?on the stairs or in any other rooms and the casings in the boys room remain undisturbed, (perhaps they were more careful in there) - why didn't the clumsy oafs walk in the blood too? Sorry but I'm not buying it, it was the SIO that was unprofessional with his assumptions, the rest made some mistakes but knew enough to be careful in a crime scene.

Here's a thought though, why not have JB move some of the casings to make it look like Nevill went to June's aid? 

I do agree that  if NB doesn't go upstairs  it solves some minor problems but in doing so, you create new ones that require just as much head scratching and supposition.

Adam's scenario is essentially the one the police believed the most likely but to save arguing about the unknowable, how about I just put your theory in the maybe pile along with all the others. :)

Will never happen.

QC keeps asking me questions on my scenario.

All have straight forward answers.

Or impossible to answer - why did Nevill run out of the main bedroom. Only Nevill knows that but plenty of common sense reasons.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 10:50:AM
Bamber's defence counsel challenged at trial.  The expert evidence was that Mr Bamber sustained four gunshot wounds upstairs evidenced by the casings.  There's also two small bloodstains on the landing carpet that were tested (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence) and bloodstains on the stairs carpet evidenced by DCI Jones notebook and Mrs Eaton's wit stat.  In addition to this Mr Bamber's blood group matched blood found on wallpaper in the hall (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence)  DC Hammersley told the trial there was also a light distribution of blood on the kitchen floor (DC Hammersley trial testimony).  In other words a blood trail existed from the landing, down the stairs, hallway and across the kitchen.  If this didn't originate from Mr Bamber sustaining 4 gunshot wounds upstairs and then moving from upstairs to the kitchen evidenced by the blood trail, who do you think it did originate from and under what circumstances?

Thanks for a clear and concise explanation CC.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 10:52:AM
Sorry for the confusion QC, I could have worded that better, I know you didn't mean they had bent down and picked them up with their hands, here:

To explain the casings you now have experienced SOCO's or TFG unwittingly picking up casings on the soles of their boots and all four of them get walked upstairs and deposited again in the bedroom.No officers trained to be observant in a crime scene notice that they are disappearing/reappearing . None dislodge from the boots ?on the stairs or in any other rooms and the casings in the boys room remain undisturbed, (perhaps they were more careful in there) - why didn't the clumsy oafs walk in the blood too? Sorry but I'm not buying it, it was the SIO that was unprofessional with his assumptions, the rest made some mistakes but knew enough to be careful in a crime scene.

Here's a thought though, why not have JB move some of the casings to make it look like Nevill went to June's aid? 

I do agree that  if NB doesn't go upstairs  it solves some minor problems but in doing so, you create new ones that require just as much head scratching and supposition.

Adam's scenario is essentially the one the police believed the most likely but to save arguing about the unknowable, how about I just put your theory in the maybe pile along with all the others. :)

Have you seen Rob's Sheila scenario?

It's a recent thread.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 10:59:AM
Have you seen Rob's Sheila scenario?

No and no disrespect to Rob but I am getting bored of scenarios.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 11:02:AM
Bamber's defence counsel challenged at trial.  The expert evidence was that Mr Bamber sustained four gunshot wounds upstairs evidenced by the casings.  There's also two small bloodstains on the landing carpet that were tested (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence) and bloodstains on the stairs carpet evidenced by DCI Jones notebook and Mrs Eaton's wit stat.  In addition to this Mr Bamber's blood group matched blood found on wallpaper in the hall (Dr Lincoln's report for the defence)  DC Hammersley told the trial there was also a light distribution of blood on the kitchen floor (DC Hammersley trial testimony).  In other words a blood trail existed from the landing, down the stairs, hallway and across the kitchen.  If this didn't originate from Mr Bamber sustaining 4 gunshot wounds upstairs and then moving from upstairs to the kitchen evidenced by the blood trail, who do you think it did originate from and under what circumstances?

Actually I should make it clear that Ed Lawson for the defence at trial asked the HO ballistics expert Malcolm Fletcher if Mr Bamber sustained any of his four gunshot wounds upstairs outside the bedroom and he replied no.  (Malcolm Fletcher's trial testimony). 
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: killingeve on January 04, 2022, 11:19:AM
Actually I should make it clear that Ed Lawson for the defence at trial asked the HO ballistics expert Malcolm Fletcher if Mr Bamber sustained any of his four gunshot wounds upstairs outside the bedroom and he replied no.  (Malcolm Fletcher's trial testimony).

Here's the trial evidence.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 02:07:PM
If it has anything to do with the CT I doubt it very much.  If it has anything to do with the pathological evidence definitely not. 

Next... ::)





Then it should have been all left to me !!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: guest29835 on January 04, 2022, 05:07:PM
Sorry for the confusion QC, I could have worded that better, I know you didn't mean they had bent down and picked them up with their hands, here:

To explain the casings you now have experienced SOCO's or TFG unwittingly picking up casings on the soles of their boots and all four of them get walked upstairs and deposited again in the bedroom.No officers trained to be observant in a crime scene notice that they are disappearing/reappearing . None dislodge from the boots ?on the stairs or in any other rooms and the casings in the boys room remain undisturbed, (perhaps they were more careful in there) - why didn't the clumsy oafs walk in the blood too? Sorry but I'm not buying it, it was the SIO that was unprofessional with his assumptions, the rest made some mistakes but knew enough to be careful in a crime scene.

Here's a thought though, why not have JB move some of the casings to make it look like Nevill went to June's aid? 

I do agree that  if NB doesn't go upstairs  it solves some minor problems but in doing so, you create new ones that require just as much head scratching and supposition.

Adam's scenario is essentially the one the police believed the most likely but to save arguing about the unknowable, how about I just put your theory in the maybe pile along with all the others. :)

I have not created a new problem.  I've not pulled something out of a Bizarro parallel dimension.  All I have done is given you a very ordinary, down-to-earth resolution for problems in the evidence. 

First, you mention nothing about the idea that the casings could have been ejected out on to the landing when fired.  This would explain it all.  The casings are tiny.  They could then easily end up moved, kicked around and so on, especially towards the main bedroom, which was a focal point for officers.  If you doubt this phenomenon in general, then tell us where the missing cartridge case is from the kitchen.  Clearly it has been moved somewhere, I would say probably by accident.  The casings are important to the crime evidence, obviously, and their position should be taken account of.  I don't say we should ignore where they are found, I only say that we should not rely on where they are found, as that's only where they are found at a particular point, so it would be foolish to do so.

You ask why didn't the "clumsy oafs" (your expression) walk in the blood.  My answer is that they undoubtedly did.  They had no choice.  They weren't clumsy oafs at all.  They had arrived at a potential armed hostage situation and they had go in and find Sheila and rescue or locate the others.

You ask why the casings were not dislodged on the stairs or elsewhere, but I did not say anything to the contrary.  As just mentioned, they may have been ejected out on to the landing from the rifle, when fired.  It is also possible that at least one casing was collected in the treads of somebody's boot, either on the landing or earlier along the footfall flow between the kitchen and the main bedroom, where officers would have stopped to examine the two bodies. 

I do not say that this means the officers were unprofessional or incompetent.  They may have been in other respects and I may advance that view, but my post about the casings doesn't rest on this.  I simply state as a cool matter of fact that evidence would inevitably have been compromised at the scene as a result of the police operation, and this would have been next-to-unavoidable.

I strongly doubt Jeremy would be messing around picking casings up.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 05:13:PM
Why would anyone not have bothered where they trod ? The place wasn't cordoned off as in a crime scene so all and sundry were clodhopping in all over the place. What a shambles of an investigation ! Contamination galore-----then a month later the place was fingerprinted  ::) Arse about face or what ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Jane on January 04, 2022, 05:23:PM
Why would anyone not have bothered where they trod ? The place wasn't cordoned off as in a crime scene so all and sundry were clodhopping in all over the place. What a shambles of an investigation ! Contamination galore-----then a month later the place was fingerprinted  ::) Arse about face or what ?

Murder/suicide. Culprit dead. Why were fingerprints necessary? Murder/murder? Whole different ball game.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Adam on January 04, 2022, 05:29:PM
I have not created a new problem.  I've not pulled something out of a Bizarro parallel dimension.  All I have done is given you a very ordinary, down-to-earth resolution for problems in the evidence. 

First, you mention nothing about the idea that the casings could have been ejected out on to the landing when fired.  This would explain it all.  The casings are tiny.  They could then easily end up moved, kicked around and so on, especially towards the main bedroom, which was a focal point for officers.  If you doubt this phenomenon in general, then tell us where the missing cartridge case is from the kitchen.  Clearly it has been moved somewhere, I would say probably by accident.  The casings are important to the crime evidence, obviously, and their position should be taken account of.  I don't say we should ignore where they are found, I only say that we should not rely on where they are found, as that's only where they are found at a particular point, so it would be foolish to do so.

You ask why didn't the "clumsy oafs" (your expression) walk in the blood.  My answer is that they undoubtedly did.  They had no choice.  They weren't clumsy oafs at all.  They had arrived at a potential armed hostage situation and they had go in and find Sheila and rescue or locate the others.

You ask why the casings were not dislodged on the stairs or elsewhere, but I did not say anything to the contrary.  As just mentioned, they may have been ejected out on to the landing from the rifle, when fired.  It is also possible that at least one casing was collected in the treads of somebody's boot, either on the landing or earlier along the footfall flow between the kitchen and the main bedroom, where officers would have stopped to examine the two bodies. 

I do not say that this means the officers were unprofessional or incompetent.  They may have been in other respects and I may advance that view, but my post about the casings doesn't rest on this.  I simply state as a cool matter of fact that evidence would inevitably have been compromised at the scene as a result of the police operation, and this would have been next-to-unavoidable.

I strongly doubt Jeremy would be messing around picking casings up.

Agree with that.

However you are saying Nevill was shot 8 times in the kitchen.

There is no way the police could accidentially put 4 of those casings upstairs in another room.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 07:13:PM
Murder/suicide. Culprit dead. Why were fingerprints necessary? Murder/murder? Whole different ball game.






A bit late in the day after the world and its wife had trampled through.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 04, 2022, 08:45:PM
Why was Sheila's face different from that of her parents when they were allegedly all killed at the same time ? Facial muscles are the first affected during RM as they're not heavy like the rest of the body as there's a stark difference in appearance, no sign whatsoever of RM in Sheila's face ! It takes less than 2 hours to be noticeable.

I discovered this only recently by chance Lookout, the face of a deceased person takes on a grimace usually around two hours after passing. Bird took the photographs something like 7 or 8 hours after the estimated time of death, would be even longer if JB staged the scene and the crime was committed earlier?

Could it have been the appearance of Sheila that convinced Harris and the other officers it was suicide?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 08:54:PM
I discovered this only recently by chance Lookout, the face of a deceased person takes on a grimace usually around two hours after passing. Bird took the photographs something like 7 or 8 hours after the estimated time of death, would be even longer if JB staged the scene and the crime was committed earlier?

Could it have been the appearance of Sheila that convinced Harris and the other officers it was suicide?






I would have thought by just looking and seeing the differences in the facial structures between the three adults that it would have been enough to have said that Sheila had died at least 2 hours later than the others.
Muscles in the face are small so are quicker for RM to show. Having seen dead people I'd have gathered straight away. The face sinks as do the eyes and if you see the pic of June lying on the floor you'd see. June had a " filled " face normally, meaning that she wasn't a thin person with a drawn face. Nevill of course I didn't see but the outline of his body showed me also that he'd died long before Sheila.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 04, 2022, 09:05:PM





I would have thought by just looking and seeing the differences in the facial structures between the three adults that it would have been enough to have said that Sheila had died at least 2 hours later than the others.
Muscles in the face are small so are quicker for RM to show. Having seen dead people I'd have gathered straight away. The face sinks as do the eyes and if you see the pic of June lying on the floor you'd see. June had a " filled " face normally, meaning that she wasn't a thin person with a drawn face. Nevill of course I didn't see but the outline of his body showed me also that he'd died long before Sheila.


I agree Lookout, but I always thought that RM was much slower, well it is for the bigger muscles.

Surely PV would have noticed?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 09:15:PM

I agree Lookout, but I always thought that RM was much slower, well it is for the bigger muscles.

Surely PV would have noticed?





PV should have noticed lots of things but didn't.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Rob_ on January 04, 2022, 09:18:PM




PV should have noticed lots of things but didn't.

I assume he did look at the crime scene photos? as by the time the autopsy was done RM would be well under way?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 04, 2022, 09:21:PM


PV should have noticed lots of things but didn't.

Shame Lookout you were not the Pathologist 😁, damn!
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: lookout on January 04, 2022, 09:28:PM
Shame Lookout you were not the Pathologist 😁, damn!





Shouldn't you be packing ?
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Munksa on January 04, 2022, 09:48:PM

Shouldn't you be packing ?

No I said  I am back to work tomorrow, then I fly next week.
Title: Re: A Jeremy Scenario
Post by: Armchair Detective on January 04, 2022, 10:07:PM





I would have thought by just looking and seeing the differences in the facial structures between the three adults that it would have been enough to have said that Sheila had died at least 2 hours later than the others.
Muscles in the face are small so are quicker for RM to show. Having seen dead people I'd have gathered straight away. The face sinks as do the eyes and if you see the pic of June lying on the floor you'd see. June had a " filled " face normally, meaning that she wasn't a thin person with a drawn face. Nevill of course I didn't see but the outline of his body showed me also that he'd died long before Sheila.

There is no arguing with that!