Author Topic: Balance of Probability  (Read 6599 times)

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Offline David1819

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #45 on: June 14, 2016, 08:12:PM »
The only way Shiela could have shot herself in the neck she would have had to be upright leaning over the rifle. The only way imo is some else fired the neck shot. It would not have been possible to hold the rifle at right angles and shoot herself.

Yes it would be very possible. Look at the crime scene photos below, Her arm is not even straight and her elbow is on floor and still her fingers are not far from the trigger. Straighten her arms, hands and fingers + finger nails she could easily reach the trigger. Only way she could not do it would be with moderator attached
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 08:14:PM by David1819 »

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #46 on: June 14, 2016, 08:28:PM »
Yes it would be very possible. Look at the crime scene photos below, Her arm is not even straight and her elbow is on floor and still her fingers are not far from the trigger. Straighten her arms, hands and fingers + finger nails she could easily reach the trigger. Only way she could not do it would be with moderator attached
had she fired a shot her thumb or finger would still be on the trigger and if it did slip out her fingers.than her hand would be on the floor ,NOT ON TOP OF THE RIFLE common sense :)

Offline Jane

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #47 on: June 14, 2016, 08:31:PM »
Yes it would be very possible. Look at the crime scene photos below, Her arm is not even straight and her elbow is on floor and still her fingers are not far from the trigger. Straighten her arms, hands and fingers + finger nails she could easily reach the trigger. Only way she could not do it would be with moderator attached


Given that anything is possible in theory, it might be, but kin  practice, she have had to be pushing the gun away from her so she may have needed both hands to steady it which would have been difficult if she was laying flat and it wasn't just an exercise to see if it was possible.

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #48 on: June 14, 2016, 08:37:PM »
Yes it would be very possible. Look at the crime scene photos below, Her arm is not even straight and her elbow is on floor and still her fingers are not far from the trigger. Straighten her arms, hands and fingers + finger nails she could easily reach the trigger. Only way she could not do it would be with moderator attached
why were her prints not found on the magazine she would have had to hold it to load the bullets
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 07:35:AM by sami »

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #49 on: June 14, 2016, 11:25:PM »
had she fired a shot her thumb or finger would still be on the trigger and if it did slip out her fingers.than her hand would be on the floor ,NOT ON TOP OF THE RIFLE common sense :)

I agree.
I think it is very unlikely that her hand would end up on top of the rifle ...
Not impossible - but very unlikely ...
Unless WPC Jeaves was very much mistaken (also very unlikely) then Jeremy is also innocent ...
The only motive for killing an entire family that is even remotely likely is money ...
Therefore we have to consider the relatives as suspects ...

Many on here consider it likely they planted the silencer ...
They could easily have persuaded Julie to lie ...
They are definitely prime potential suspects according to probability and logic ...

Offline David1819

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #50 on: June 14, 2016, 11:34:PM »
had she fired a shot her thumb or finger would still be on the trigger and if it did slip out her fingers.than her hand would be on the floor ,NOT ON TOP OF THE RIFLE common sense :)

Once dead her elbow and upper arm would fall to the floor via gravity. leaving the arm in the position it was found pulling her hand slightly away from the trigger.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 11:35:PM by David1819 »

Offline sherlock

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #51 on: June 14, 2016, 11:56:PM »
Once dead her elbow and upper arm would fall to the floor via gravity. leaving the arm in the position it was found pulling her hand slightly away from the trigger.

Do you think she was holding the gun with only her right hand ?
Or do you think she used both hands ?

Offline Adam

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #52 on: June 15, 2016, 06:20:AM »
I prefer to believe the evidence of WPC Jeaves than the changing theories of Bob Wolfinden and co ...

How do you explain WPC Jeaves statement about the rifle in the window Adam ?

She was a trained firearms instructor - she knows what a rifle looks like ...

She would not say she saw a rifle unless she saw a rifle ...

Explain that one Adam ...

I am waiting for your explanation mate ...

There is a photograph of a rifle by the window. There is a thread on it.

And ?
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #53 on: June 15, 2016, 07:40:AM »
Once dead her elbow and upper arm would fall to the floor via gravity. leaving the arm in the position it was found pulling her hand slightly away from the trigger.
impossible david,imo,the only option left is to say the photo was taken after the police replaced the rifle on sheila,hence they replaced it in the wrong position

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #54 on: June 15, 2016, 07:46:AM »
I agree.
I think it is very unlikely that her hand would end up on top of the rifle ...
Not impossible - but very unlikely ...
Unless WPC Jeaves was very much mistaken (also very unlikely) then Jeremy is also innocent ...
The only motive for killing an entire family that is even remotely likely is money ...
Therefore we have to consider the relatives as suspects ...

Many on here consider it likely they planted the silencer ...
They could easily have persuaded Julie to lie ...
They are definitely prime potential suspects according to probability and logic ...
from where she was standing and looking up she would not be able to see the rifle fully, she could only see the top 12ins of the barrel,it could look like a broom stick or iron rod,did she not correct her statement afterwards

Offline Jane

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #55 on: June 15, 2016, 08:32:AM »
impossible david,imo,the only option left is to say the photo was taken after the police replaced the rifle on sheila,hence they replaced it in the wrong position


Absolute logic, Sami. I can go with that.

Offline sami

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #56 on: June 15, 2016, 11:04:AM »

Absolute logic, Sami. I can go with that.
thank you jane :) also i forgot to add is wpc jeaves said she saw what APPEARED to be a rifle

Offline David1819

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #57 on: June 15, 2016, 11:29:AM »
impossible david,imo,the only option left is to say the photo was taken after the police replaced the rifle on sheila,hence they replaced it in the wrong position

Its not impossible at all. your just saying it is because you don't like the sound of it.  ;)

Offline Adam

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #58 on: June 15, 2016, 11:39:AM »
David you must stop revealing in lurid conspiracy theories. You're just proving Leo Mckinsty right.

"Here we go again. Like a macabre version of Groundhog Day, mass murderer Jeremy Bamber is making yet another bid for freedom. This nasty legal saga has been dragging on for almost 26 years, ever since Bamber was first found guilty of the savage massacre at his family’s farmhouse in rural Essex. By a majority verdict, the jury at Chelmsford Crown Court decided that in the early hours of 7 August 1985, Bamber had shot dead his adoptive parents, Nevill and June, his sister Sheila Caffel, and her young twin sons, Daniel and Nicholas. No fewer than 25 rounds from an Anschutz .22 semi-automatic rifle had been fired at the victims, almost all from point-black range.

After hearing the jury’s verdict, the judge described Bamber as ‘warped and evil beyond belief’ as he sentenced him to life imprisonment, and despite all his protestations of innocence, Bamber has consistently failed to sway the justice system. On two occasions, in 1989 and 2002, the Court of Appeal considered his case in the light of supposed new evidence and both times it upheld the original verdict. Indeed, after the second appeal, the judges wrote, ‘The deeper we have looked into this case, the more likely it seems to us that the jury was right.’ Those words have not deterred ­Bamber. He’s kept up his campaign through the media, through his website and now on Twitter, aided by a group of diehard supporters who revel in lurid conspiracy theories about the actions of Essex police, the courts, and the wider Bamber family.

Cheered on by these creepy fans and a new legal team, Bamber is now seeking to go to the Court of Appeal a third time. His claims of new evidence revolve around the weapon used and some of the witness testimony, and they’re currently being examined by the Criminal Cases Review Commission, which will announce shortly if he will be granted leave to appeal yet again. It would be astonishing if he were, and deeply depressing, for the case against him remains overwhelming. There truly has been no dramatic breakthrough by his lawyers, just a rehash of past material. Last week, in the run-up to CCRC’s decision, ITV ran a high-profile documentary on the Bamber case, claiming that the so-called new evidence could render his conviction unsafe. But the programme turned out to be almost anaemic in its lack of proper substance just a few firearms professionals speculating and a few partisan journalists.

[Alt-Text]
The whole pro-Bamber case has always rested on the theory that his sister Sheila Caffel, who had a long history of mental illness, was the real killer. According to this story, she assassinated her parents and her two children during a schizophrenic episode, before turning the gun on herself. In fact, this is what police initially believed had happened, but a number of developments soon turned the spotlight of suspicion on Bamber. One was his weird lack of any obvious grief in the wake of the massacre. He partied with friends and even went abroad for two holidays. Another was the crucial discovery, in a downstairs cupboard on the farm, of the rifle’s silencer, smeared with blood. This appeared to indicate that Sheila, whose body was found upstairs with two bullet wounds in the neck, could not be a suicidal murderer: the attachment of the silencer would have made the gun too long for her to hold under her chin while pulling the trigger. As the police renewed their enquiries, other factors emerged that ruled Sheila out. There was no firearms residue or oil on her hands, and little blood staining her nightdress. She was a small, thin young woman with no history of violence or experience of firearms. ­Moreover, the crime scene demonstrated that her father Nevill, found slumped in the kitchen, had put up a ferocious struggle against his assailant despite his bullet wounds. Nevill was a fit 61-year-old farmer who stood 6ft 4in tall. So violent was the fight that part of the rifle’s wooden butt had broken off. It was absurd to believe that Sheila, a recovering anorexic, would have been capable of such a struggle.

But Jeremy certainly would. The reason the evidence at first pointed to Sheila was because he had staged it that way to frame her, and his motive for the murder was to inherit the family estate, worth £435,000. A suave playboy used to handling guns, ­Jeremy loathed his adoptive parents so much that Nevill had confided to the farm secretary that he worried Jeremy was plotting to kill him. ‘I must never turn my back on him,’ he said. Bamber’s behaviour on the night of murders was deeply incriminating. He claimed to be asleep in his family-owned cottage near the farm when he received a distraught call from his father, saying that Sheila had ‘gone beserk’ with a gun. But Jeremy did not phone 999. Instead, as he admitted, he wasted time looking through the phone book for the number of the local police station. Then, though he had been known for fast, reckless driving, he pottered over to the farm in his car at 25 mph. He was overtaken by the police on the way. After he arrived at the farm, he kept up a running commentary to the police outside the farmhouse, insinuating that Sheila was guilty.

Just as damning was the testimony of his former girlfriend Julie Mugford, who told the police that he had talked of his hatred for his family and his plans to kill them. ‘It’s tonight or never,’ he reportedly said on the day of the murders. Pro-Bamber campaigners have always tried to dismiss Mugford’s evidence, arguing that she was a tainted witness because not only had he jilted her soon after the murders but also she sold her story to the press after the trial. But it is highly unlikely that she would have dared to perjure herself on such trivial grounds, particularly not in such a serious trial. Nor has she ever retracted a word of her testimony.

Bamber’s defence has always been inherently implausible. Even Bob Woffinden, a veteran journalist who specialises in miscarriages of justice and who spent 20 years arguing for Bamber’s release, bravely wrote last year that he has changed his mind and is now sure of Bamber’s guilt. In running his campaign from his maximum security prison cell, said Woffinden, ‘Bamber still has all the cunning and ingenuity that he displayed in planning the crime.’ The calls to overturn his conviction are a disgrace, based on nothing more than lies, distractions and hollow theorising. The real affront to our justice system would be another pointless appeal for this monstrous killer".
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 11:39:AM by Adam »
'Only I know what really happened that night'.

Offline lookout

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Re: Balance of Probability
« Reply #59 on: June 15, 2016, 12:46:PM »
thank you jane :) also i forgot to add is wpc jeaves said she saw what APPEARED to be a rifle





Police invariably use the phrase " appeared to be " when, what they mean to say is that it WAS what they saw or thought. As in " there " appeared " to be 5 dead bodies found.