Neville's call to Jeremy. A 1% likelihood ?

[Jane]

its not 1%

Adam is making that up out of his own head.

Just look at the behaviour of the police when they arrived then you will get  a clearer picture. For all they know Sheila could have been threatening to shoot herself - or even just waving the gun around. They had not a clue about a mass murder. They thought they were going just to calm down a sick woman.

Did they, though? By the time they eventually went in, there must have been enough noise going on outside to have got SOME sort of indication that there was someone alive inside. They MAY only have done this exercise in theory/rehearsal, but as every minute went past with no response from inside, they must have had a fair idea that all was not well.

[Jan]

That's why I said when they arrived .

They had not been told shots had been fired - that was not mentioned at all.

And the interpretation of a few brief words is easy in retrospect is it not?

for all they knew they could have gone there to find Sheila threatening to shoot herself in front of her father . Or she could have had a "crazy" shouting, threatening moment and then put the gun down by the time they got there .

I always criticised them for not going in to save the twins because they did not know they were dead - but to be fair when they arrived a threat to the twins was not even implicated by those few snatched words. the Dickinson report is interesting in setting out the time frame and the lack of communication.

[nugnug]

weather somthing is likely doesnt mean it dident happen i mean we have all had unlikely things happen to us havent.

[guest154]

Its exactly posts like this that keep me away. One sided and full of (60 at least ) assumptions .

Preaching instead of discussing .

together with other threads on here the last few days I am afraid the bottom of the pit is being reached.

Are you referring to the  posts about June and the secret Bamber daughter? If so, I agree. I think a lot of people have been staying away.

[guest154]

After staging the scene at WHF, the next stage was to telephone the police. To tell them Neville had called him. After looking at this in more detail, is there now just a 1% chance this happened ? 

1: Neville's decision to phone Bamber.

Well there are 60 reasons why Neville would not call Bamber. A thread has been created. He had lots of better options.

Neville obviously had time to consider other options. Otherwise he wouldn't have phoned Bamber. He wouldn't have time to think of all 60 reasons to not telephone Bamber. But a handful would flash across his mind. Resulting in him not phoning Bamber.

2: Bamber answering Neville's call.

Bamber told police he was 'sleeping like a log' at home.

If we are generous and say the phone rang 8 times before the answering machine worked, that is still less than 20 seconds. Bamber was upstairs and asleep. Perhaps with his bedroom door shut. He would almost certainly have not heard the phone and certainly would not have got to the phone before Neville had left a message.

Supporters say he would have turned the answering machine off when he got home. This is not credible. However if it was not on, it would be several minutes before a ringing phone would wake and entice Bamber to walk downstairs and answer. It would be poor judgement by Neville to wait that long in his situation. He had several better options.

3: Neville's 11 words to Bamber.

After deciding to ring Bamber, then wait several minutes for an answer, it is surprising Neville said just 11 words to him. The phone then going dead.

4: Bamber's reaction to Neville's call:

No one knows what they would do in this situation. A father calling a son at around 3am due to a crazy and dangerous daughter is a one off occurrence in England. As far as I am aware. However the consensus is that his actions were not credible.

He said he wasted time and called Julie to 'hear a friendly voice'. 

Wasted time looking in the phone directly for the third and forth furthest away police stations, because 'he didn't think it would make any difference how quickly the police arrived'.

Didn't dial 999 because 'it didn't occur to him'.

Didn't go straight over to WHF although Neville had rang him and said 'please come over'.

Put several layers of clothes on and drove very slowly to WHF because he 'wanted to arrive after the police'.


Do other people now believe there is now only a 1% chance Neville's call happened ? And is 1% enough for 'reasonable doubt' ?

Hard to put a percentage on it. But there are a lot of reasons I think it is clear it didn't and wouldn't have happened.
Instead of a percentage I'd say it was non-nonsensical - a fabrication and a flop! 

[Jane]

Are you referring to the  posts about June and the secret Bamber daughter? If so, I agree. I think a lot of people have been staying away.

Conspicuous by our absence, Mat.

[notsure]

60 reasons, 11 words, 1%. Have you got a thing about numbers Adam.

[Jan]

Are you referring to the  posts about June and the secret Bamber daughter? If so, I agree. I think a lot of people have been staying away.

yes amongst others.

If it was true I would think it would be obvious that the person should be protected not outed on a public forum.

[nugnug]

secret bamber daughter i must of missed that one.

[Jan]

60 reasons, 11 words, 1%. Have you got a thing about numbers Adam.

I don't think so - he is definitely not a mathematician 

probability is a word in his world - not a calculation.

And to have an accurate prediction of someones actions you would at least have to know them personally - not judge from reading books.

[nugnug]

yes amongst others.

If it was true I would think it would be obvious that the person should be protected not outed on a public forum.

i would of thought that 2.

[Jane]

I don't think so - he is definitely not a mathematician 

probability is a word in his world - not a calculation.

And to have an accurate prediction of someones actions you would at least have to know them personally - not judge from reading books.

And have set up a statistical graph in which every variable applying to each of the listed points is given consideration.

[notsure]

Haha

[nugnug]

i think theres a one in 10 chance that adams the hitman.

[Adam]

60 reasons, 11 words, 1%. Have you got a thing about numbers Adam.

I will find the 60 facts for you.