Russia - worrying?

[gringo]

Seems the AI didn't predict this outcome for the Armchair warrior Gringo,  even though all along youv'e been spot on and tried your hardest to educate him and Steve,  I don't know the History of this region like you and NGB, but it was obvious to me that the Russian bear and Putin wouldn't give in?

        Does AI stand for "Artificial Ignorance". Garbage info in Garbage info out 

[Hardy Boy]

        Does AI stand for "Artificial Ignorance". Garbage info in Garbage info out 

We'll probably know more when he's updated Chat GPT4 Gringo.

[David1819]

We'll probably know more when he's updated Chat GPT4 Gringo.

I did not use the ChatGPT for my last last post. But lets ask

I asked "Has Russia benefited from its war against Ukraine?"

"Russia's war against Ukraine has brought some gains but also significant costs. Here’s a breakdown of the key aspects:

Economically, Russia has managed to stay afloat despite unprecedented Western sanctions, but it has also faced significant challenges and long-term risks.

Short-Term Economic Gains

Energy Revenue Resilience – Russia initially profited from high global oil and gas prices in 2022, offsetting the impact of Western sanctions. China, India, and other countries increased purchases of discounted Russian energy.

Increased Military Production – The war has driven a surge in defense spending, boosting military-related industries and employment.

Import Substitution – Russia has adapted by producing more domestically and finding alternative suppliers, particularly in China, Turkey, and Iran.

Rubles Stabilized (for Now) – After initial volatility, Russia stabilized the ruble through capital controls and trade adjustments.

Long-Term Economic Costs

Sanctions & Trade Restrictions – Russia lost access to Western technology, capital markets, and high-value exports, forcing inefficient workarounds.

Decline in Energy Revenues – As Europe phased out Russian oil and gas, Russia had to sell at discounts to Asia, reducing profits. The EU was once Russia’s biggest buyer, and the loss of this market is a long-term setback.

Brain Drain & Workforce Losses – Hundreds of thousands of skilled workers and professionals fled the country to escape mobilization and economic instability, weakening Russia’s long-term growth prospects.

Structural Economic Weaknesses – Heavy reliance on war-driven spending and state intervention has made Russia’s economy more militarized and less diversified, limiting future development.

Inflation & Budget Deficit – Military spending has increased government expenditures, leading to a widening budget deficit, while inflation has pressured consumers.


Russia has seen both military gains and heavy losses from its war in Ukraine. While it has adapted in some areas, the overall military cost has been steep.

Military Gains for Russia

Territorial Seizures – Russia controls parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, in addition to Crimea (annexed in 2014). However, its control remains contested, and it has failed to take all of Ukraine.

Increased Military Production – Russia has ramped up arms production, producing more tanks, drones, and missiles. The defense sector is now one of the strongest parts of the economy.

Tactical Adaptations – Russia has improved its electronic warfare, drone warfare, and defensive tactics after suffering early setbacks.

Wartime Experience – Russia’s military has gained real combat experience, particularly in urban and trench warfare.

Major Military Costs

Massive Personnel Losses – Estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have been killed or wounded, weakening its fighting force.

Heavy Equipment Losses – Russia has lost thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft, forcing it to rely on older Soviet-era stockpiles.

Mobilization Strains – The need for more troops has led to forced mobilizations, causing unrest and encouraging many young men to flee the country.

Failure to Achieve Main Objectives – Russia aimed for a quick takeover of Kyiv and the collapse of Ukraine’s government in 2022 but failed. Ukraine remains defiant, with strong Western support.

NATO Expansion – The war backfired strategically, pushing Finland and Sweden to join NATO, strengthening the alliance against Russia.

Dependence on Foreign Arms – Russia has had to rely on Iranian drones and North Korean ammunition, signaling weaknesses in its own production capabilities.

Conclusion

Russia’s economy has shown short-term resilience but at a high cost. It is increasingly reliant on war spending, a shrinking labor force, and risky trade relationships. In the long run, sanctions, energy dependence, and the lack of Western technology could slow down growth and limit economic development.

While Russia has made some military gains, the war has been far more costly than expected. The failure to quickly defeat Ukraine has led to prolonged fighting, heavy losses, and strategic setbacks, including a stronger NATO. The long-term sustainability of Russia’s military campaign remains uncertain."


I then asked "Was the war worth it?"

"From a strategic and human perspective, the war has been devastating for both sides, and it's hard to argue that it was "worth it" for Russia, Ukraine, or even the world.

For Russia: Likely Not Worth It

Military Failures – Russia has suffered massive casualties, lost significant equipment, and failed to achieve its initial objectives.

Economic Setbacks – Sanctions, lost European energy markets, and a growing reliance on China have weakened Russia’s long-term economic outlook.

Geopolitical Losses – NATO expanded with Finland and Sweden, while Ukraine is now closer to the West than ever before.

Domestic Instability – Internal opposition, elite dissatisfaction, and mobilization challenges have created long-term risks for the Russian government.

While Russia has gained some territory and increased its military production, the costs outweigh the benefits in almost every category. The war has weakened Russia globally rather than strengthening it.

For Ukraine: A Tragic but Necessary Fight

Massive Human & Economic Costs – Cities destroyed, thousands of civilians killed, millions displaced, and the economy severely damaged.

National Identity Strengthened – The war has solidified Ukraine’s independence and national unity like never before.

Closer to the West – Ukraine is receiving more military aid, economic support, and potential EU/NATO membership prospects.

For Ukraine, the war was not a choice, but a fight for survival. While the costs have been enormous, Ukraine has gained stronger international backing and reinforced its sovereignty.

For the World: A More Divided & Unstable Order

Increased Global Tensions – U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia relations are at their worst since the Cold War.

Economic Fallout – Rising energy prices, food shortages, and economic instability have affected global markets.

A More Militarized World – Countries are increasing military budgets, preparing for long-term tensions.

Final Verdict

For Russia: No, the war has been costly, weakening its military, economy, and global influence.
For Ukraine: A necessary fight, but at a horrific cost.
For the World: More instability, economic strain, and geopolitical divides.
In short, Russia overestimated its strength and underestimated Ukraine, leading to a long, costly war that may not bring any clear victory."

[gringo]

So we are told, just like Putin is dying.

    David believes every "intelligence insiders" un-sourced claim as long as it suits the narrative. He is at least moving along the Kubler Ross 5 stages of grief. After stages 1 & 2 (denial and anger) he is now at stage 3, bargaining;

     "well Russia might have won, but it is a shit victory" type of position.

     Those who have spent the last decade or so lapping up the comforting lies and ignoring uncomfortable truths are in in for a huge wake up call in the coming weeks/months.

[David1819]

So we are told, just like Putin is dying.

21st September 2022 - Putin issues Decree No. 647 calling for military mobilization.

24th September 2022 - Federal Law No. 365-FZ in effect stating 5 to 10 years of imprisonment for evading military summons.

4th of August 2023 - Conscription age limit is raised from 27 to 30.

Below is a Decree from September of last year calling for the conscription of another 133,000 more men.

It speaks for itself.

[Hardy Boy]

21st September 2022 - Putin issues Decree No. 647 calling for military mobilization.

24th September 2022 - Federal Law No. 365-FZ in effect stating 5 to 10 years of imprisonment for evading military summons.

4th of August 2023 - Conscription age limit is raised from 27 to 30.

Below is a Decree from September of last year calling for the conscription of another 133,000 more men.

It speaks for itself.

He had to conscript, how else could he secure the land he'd gained from Ukraine, the more Land you take, the more security you need it's that simple.  Seriously David, why do you need CHAT GPT4 when youv'e got Gringo, the difference is, when you feed CHAT  GPT Dross you end up with the false Narrative, when you feed Gringo Dross you end up with an education.

[Hardy Boy]

    David believes every "intelligence insiders" un-sourced claim as long as it suits the narrative. He is at least moving along the Kubler Ross 5 stages of grief. After stages 1 & 2 (denial and anger) he is now at stage 3, bargaining;

     "well Russia might have won, but it is a shit victory" type of position.

     Those who have spent the last decade or so lapping up the comforting lies and ignoring uncomfortable truths are in in for a huge wake up call in the coming weeks/months.

I think youv'e took Steve and David and Chat GPT on and won hands down Gringo, they should thank you for the education and foresight youv'e provided for them. 

Another prediction of yours might be right as well in post 3284 when you said this....   No NATO member countries will be allowed by Russia to be in any peacekeeping force, if they even agree to one.     this from yesterdays meeting..................Vladimir Putin: I won’t allow Starmer’s plan for troops in Ukraine, in other Words, you'll do as we say.

                                                    And the REDS Keep marching ON ON ON.

[Hardy Boy]

I did not use the ChatGPT for my last last post. But lets ask

I asked "Has Russia benefited from its war against Ukraine?"

Yes, it has, it's gained 20 per cent Land from Ukraine, land rich in minerals,  it has put Nato in it's place and it's now dictating the terms................ But, Best to update iCHAT GPT after the talks David when Russia has told the West how it's going to work from now on and all sanctions have been lifted,  or better still just read Gringo's posts there are lots of clue's in them for you.

[David1819]

He had to conscript, how else could he secure the land he'd gained from Ukraine, the more Land you take, the more security you need it's that simple.  Seriously David, why do you need CHAT GPT4 when youv'e got Gringo, the difference is, when you feed CHAT  GPT Dross you end up with the false Narrative, when you feed Gringo Dross you end up with an education.

What on earth have you been smoking?

[Hardy Boy]

What on earth have you been smoking?

The same as Trump i think, Trump knew all along it was a lost cause.......................Donald Trump has criticised Ukraine with comments suggesting its leaders never should have allowed the war to begin, and suggesting the country should have been willing to make concessions to Russia before the 2022 invasion.

He said he was "disappointed" by Ukraine's reaction to not being allowed to join talks to end the three year conflict, saying the country "could have made a deal" earlier.

"Today I heard, 'Oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you been there for three years. You should have ended it three years" ago, Mr Trump said in controversial comments during a news conference at his Florida residence following Russia and US talks to end the war.

"You should have never started it. You could have made a deal."

Expand article logo  Continue reading

"This could have been settled very easily. Just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without, I think, the loss of much land and without the loss of any lives and without the loss of cities that are just laying on their side”, he added.

While touting his own negotiation skills, Mr Trump also said he was "more confident" about a peace deal after Tuesday's talks, attended by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

[David1819]

The same as Trump i think,

You must be

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/07/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-jets-chinese

[David1819]

Trump's '100-day peace plan' for Ukraine. 

[gringo]

We'll probably know more when he's updated Chat GPT4 Gringo.

   I'm sure and David will know less.
     There is a difference between Actual Intelligence and Artificial Ignorance which David is unable to discern.

[gringo]

Yes, it has, it's gained 20 per cent Land from Ukraine, land rich in minerals,  it has put Nato in it's place and it's now dictating the terms................ But, Best to update iCHAT GPT after the talks David when Russia has told the West how it's going to work from now on and all sanctions have been lifted,  or better still just read Gringo's posts there are lots of clue's in them for you.

    The "Trump 100 day peace plan" looks remarkably similar to Russian demands. The further concessions that will be have to be made won't look so bad with the initial bar set so low. This has long been predictable. I was asked by ILB in July 2022 the following;

"So what do you sensibly think the end game of this is. Say the whole of Ukraine is under Russian occupation."

   My reply from July 2022 below;

"A more constructive question, ILB.
     Initially, I think the Russians would have settled for the demands made in December. These are non membership of NATO for Ukraine and remaining neutral as well as a ban on further NATO expansion.
 The removal of troops and weapon systems placed in countries who joined after 1997. There are 8 points but these are the main points. Read rest of it at the link for a fuller picture
 
     https://intellinews.com/russia-issues-a-eight-point-list-of-demands-229829/

     Escalations and interference by US/UK/NATO since then fuelling rather than trying to end the hostilities have hardened the position not just of the Russian leadership, but also the Russian public. The provocations via Lithuania towards Kaliningrad being one example of deliberately pouring fuel on the fire.
     The sanctions and attempts to strangle Russia economically are another. Seizing the funds of a nation like Russia makes the world take notice. US and Western organisations are untrustworthy and thieves. These were suicidal moves. NATO attempts to weaken Russia have escalated what should have been a solvable regional security issue into an all encompassing war that will lead to the ultimate neutering of Western US/NATO dominance, militarily and economically.
     I expect that NATO/US bases and illegal occupations around the world will come under increasing pressure. Everyone has cheap accurate missiles now making many bases and occupations ultimately non viable.
     In terms of Ukraine itself. The entire Black Sea coast, including Odessa will be taken by Russia, DPR, LPR troops and referendums held in each oblast as to their status. NATO will be allowed no presence on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. Kiev and parts of the west of the country such as Galicia may become part of a neutralised land locked rump Ukrainian state. Poland may stake claims on parts as well as others. Ukraine is finished. That is what it deserves after allowing themselves to be used as a spearhead into Russia. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
    I expect further NATO provocations and fuelling of the fire and hope that our leaders are not insane enough to launch nuclear weapons. Provocations against China, via Taiwan are one possibility. It seems more likely that an "Iron Curtain 2.0" will come down at some point. This time we will be on the censored and poorer side of it. Western populations will hopefully eventually be awakened from their complacency and see the lies and crimes of our representatives. Our free ride in the West at the expense of other nations resources is over, one way or another."

    It was apparent then, and even more so now, that Russia never had to conquer land. There will be elections and referendums after hostilities and most of Ukraine will "fall" willingly to Russia. Trump's "100 day peace plan" will soon concede that no NATO countries will be in any peacekeeping force.

 

[Hardy Boy]

    The "Trump 100 day peace plan" looks remarkably similar to Russian demands. The further concessions that will be have to be made won't look so bad with the initial bar set so low. This has long been predictable. I was asked by ILB in July 2022 the following;

"So what do you sensibly think the end game of this is. Say the whole of Ukraine is under Russian occupation."

   My reply from July 2022 below;

"A more constructive question, ILB.
     Initially, I think the Russians would have settled for the demands made in December. These are non membership of NATO for Ukraine and remaining neutral as well as a ban on further NATO expansion.
 The removal of troops and weapon systems placed in countries who joined after 1997. There are 8 points but these are the main points. Read rest of it at the link for a fuller picture
 
     https://intellinews.com/russia-issues-a-eight-point-list-of-demands-229829/

     Escalations and interference by US/UK/NATO since then fuelling rather than trying to end the hostilities have hardened the position not just of the Russian leadership, but also the Russian public. The provocations via Lithuania towards Kaliningrad being one example of deliberately pouring fuel on the fire.
     The sanctions and attempts to strangle Russia economically are another. Seizing the funds of a nation like Russia makes the world take notice. US and Western organisations are untrustworthy and thieves. These were suicidal moves. NATO attempts to weaken Russia have escalated what should have been a solvable regional security issue into an all encompassing war that will lead to the ultimate neutering of Western US/NATO dominance, militarily and economically.
     I expect that NATO/US bases and illegal occupations around the world will come under increasing pressure. Everyone has cheap accurate missiles now making many bases and occupations ultimately non viable.
     In terms of Ukraine itself. The entire Black Sea coast, including Odessa will be taken by Russia, DPR, LPR troops and referendums held in each oblast as to their status. NATO will be allowed no presence on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. Kiev and parts of the west of the country such as Galicia may become part of a neutralised land locked rump Ukrainian state. Poland may stake claims on parts as well as others. Ukraine is finished. That is what it deserves after allowing themselves to be used as a spearhead into Russia. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
    I expect further NATO provocations and fuelling of the fire and hope that our leaders are not insane enough to launch nuclear weapons. Provocations against China, via Taiwan are one possibility. It seems more likely that an "Iron Curtain 2.0" will come down at some point. This time we will be on the censored and poorer side of it. Western populations will hopefully eventually be awakened from their complacency and see the lies and crimes of our representatives. Our free ride in the West at the expense of other nations resources is over, one way or another."

    It was apparent then, and even more so now, that Russia never had to conquer land. There will be elections and referendums after hostilities and most of Ukraine will "fall" willingly to Russia. Trump's "100 day peace plan" will soon concede that no NATO countries will be in any peacekeeping force.

 

Gringo iv'e read a lot of your past posts, i sometimes think your inside the Kremlin itself,  youv'e been spot on my friend,  Ukraine would have been defeated soon enough anyway, they were on the back foot, i read an article that said the Ukraine army was like the German Army in January 1945.” being pushed back on all fronts and it was only a matter of time?

Trump is no fool, he knows there was no chance and he didn't want the Humiliation on his watch, that's why he's rushed into these talks, he's now talking about a change of leadership in Ukraine, i personally think Zelensky is a busted flush and will soon be replaced,   to me it was impossible to defeat Russia,  .......... History knows of no example where taking on Russia in an attritional contest has proved successful. Let’s be clear: this means there is a real possibility of defeat – there is no sugar-coating this........by Frank Ledwidge

I really hope everyone has learned their lesson from this gringo, and at the very least we get a lasting peace where everyone works together, time will tell i suppose.