Russia - worrying?

[Hardy Boy]

     Your predictions are based on wishful thinking. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be de-militarised and any peacekeeping force will need the agreement of Russia, who are in a position to dictate. No NATO member countries will be allowed by Russia to be in any peacekeeping force, if they even agree to one. Ukraine will not be allowed by Russia to be in any position to attack Russia, or be used as a proxy by others to attack Russia again. In other words verifiable de-militarisation. It is likely that referendums will be held in other oblasts too. The Ukrainian state is dysfunctional and when the war ends, expect repercussions, from within. It will likely lose other territories, perhaps even to Hungary/Romania as well as Russia.
      Your demographic disaster narrative is supported only by guesswork and conjecture. The birthrate in Russia is in line with most European countries, including the UK(2024 figures), and they are starting with a much higher population level. New oblasts will  be added to Russia, probably more than the four oblasts and Crimea. Russia are rich in resources and their economy is growing faster than most western countries. They are the 4th richest economy in the world by GDP PPP. Behind only China, USA and India. UK are 10th. Russia has around double the UK population, many magnitudes more resources and land.
     Those countries who have sunk many billions into their Ukrainian proxy war against Russia are much more likely to face economic collapse. How many of those loans are based on collateral (ie. gas, rare earth, ores, coal and industrial base of Ukraine) that Ukraine doesn't have control of? You should be angry at your own government's betrayal by being so reckless and spending so much UK wealth on a war that has nothing to do with us and that our government have fuelled and encouraged. Instead, as per training, you blame Putin/Russia. It is only in the heavily propagandised west that Putin is viewed in such negative terms. Most of the world views Putin positively. The west(NATO/US/UK et al) are now so openly aggressive and belligerent that it is bizarre that anyone can ignore this. They are not even pretending to be anything but aggressive Imperialists. That anyone still defends such blatant war-mongering by their own governments is mind boggling.
   
     

Great Post Gringo, i posted this in August last year, both you and i have been proved right...................I honestly cannot see Russia accepting anything other than Victory Gringo, you cannot have a super Power lose out to Ukraine,  the only way forward is for Ukraine to concede on the ground taken by Russia.

[gringo]

Great Post Gringo, i posted this in August last year, both you and i have been proved right...................I honestly cannot see Russia accepting anything other than Victory Gringo, you cannot have a super Power lose out to Ukraine,  the only way forward is for Ukraine to concede on the ground taken by Russia.

    It will be much worse than just conceding the ground they have already lost, HB. It is and always has been, as you say, obvious to anyone not brainwashed that Russia will be the victors. There will be repercussions from the pro and ethnic Russian part of the population in the remainder of Ukraine. The false flag atrocities that have been used to fuel this war(MH17, Nord Stream, Bucha, Skripals etc.) will be investigated and the real perpetrators will become known. When the hostilities end under Russian terms is when the consequences will begin. The UK, EU, NATO will all face their own reckonings from a pissed off electorate suffering the economic consequences of the follies of their own criminally inept governments.
     Those countries that have funded and armed this collective effort to defeat Russia will suffer. Russia has paid a price in blood and treasure imposed upon them by UK/US NATO led aggression. Those who provoked and then led this war (from the rear) will not be allowed to just walk away. They will also face repercussions from their own populations. Truth will come to the surface, as is its habit, when all is done.

[David1819]

Great Post Gringo, i posted this in August last year, both you and i have been proved right...................I honestly cannot see Russia accepting anything other than Victory Gringo, you cannot have a super Power lose out to Ukraine,  the only way forward is for Ukraine to concede on the ground taken by Russia.

A superpower does not depend on a country like North Korea to help it throw out an occupying force (and fail). Neither does a superpower lose a third of its black sea fleet to a country with no navy.

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/25/ukraine-war-black-sea-fleet-crimea/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/north-korea-sending-a-second-wave-of-soldiers-to-ukraine/


Even I'm dissapointed with the Russian military. I was expecting modern warfare, not human wave meat grinders made possible by forced conscription of its young population.

[gringo]

Great Post Gringo, i posted this in August last year, both you and i have been proved right...................I honestly cannot see Russia accepting anything other than Victory Gringo, you cannot have a super Power lose out to Ukraine,  the only way forward is for Ukraine to concede on the ground taken by Russia.

    You are right, HB, but ultimately the real victory was not against Ukraine, but against NATO. This is likely/certain to prove terminal for the anachronistic NATO alliance. In December 2021 Russia presented NATO with the "terms" of a new security architecture in Europe. Link below;


https://augengeradeaus.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/20211217_Draft_Russia_NATO_security_guarantees.pdf

    The NATO response was predictable;

     NATO and U.S. response
"On 26 January 2022, NATO and the U.S. issued their formal response to Russia, in which they rejected demands that Ukraine never join NATO and that the alliance withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe; the confidential document was later published by El País."

     The recent very public US abandonment of Ukraine and by definition also abandonment of their NATO allies is a clear signal that Russia's 2021 demands will dictate the aftermath of this war.

     Article 4 of the draft "Security Agreement" presented by Russia before open hostilities in Ukraine began;

 4.)  The Russian Federation and all the Parties that were member States of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization as of 27 May 1997, respectively, shall not
deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in
Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.
With the consent of all the Parties such deployments can take place in
exceptional cases to eliminate a threat to security of one or more Parties.

     The whole agreement is worth the read. It tells us what the settlement will mean for NATO. Russia will settle for nothing less. The "facts on the ground" are clear; the settlement will be reached by diplomacy or military force but the demands of the 2021 Security Agreement will be implemented. This was predictable and predicted at the time.

     There will be many repercussions and consequences yet to pay for western/NATO aggression. Ukraine will be carved up and left a rump state. The divisions in that society are too large and raw to just go away. EU/NATO and many western governments are yet to held account by their own populations who will be poorer and less secure because of the belligerence and aggression of their leaders. It is far from over yet.

[Hardy Boy]

    You are right, HB, but ultimately the real victory was not against Ukraine, but against NATO. This is likely/certain to prove terminal for the anachronistic NATO alliance. In December 2021 Russia presented NATO with the "terms" of a new security architecture in Europe. Link below;


https://augengeradeaus.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/20211217_Draft_Russia_NATO_security_guarantees.pdf

    The NATO response was predictable;

     NATO and U.S. response
"On 26 January 2022, NATO and the U.S. issued their formal response to Russia, in which they rejected demands that Ukraine never join NATO and that the alliance withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe; the confidential document was later published by El País."

     The recent very public US abandonment of Ukraine and by definition also abandonment of their NATO allies is a clear signal that Russia's 2021 demands will dictate the aftermath of this war.

     Article 4 of the draft "Security Agreement" presented by Russia before open hostilities in Ukraine began;

 4.)  The Russian Federation and all the Parties that were member States of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization as of 27 May 1997, respectively, shall not
deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in
Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.
With the consent of all the Parties such deployments can take place in
exceptional cases to eliminate a threat to security of one or more Parties.

     The whole agreement is worth the read. It tells us what the settlement will mean for NATO. Russia will settle for nothing less. The "facts on the ground" are clear; the settlement will be reached by diplomacy or military force but the demands of the 2021 Security Agreement will be implemented. This was predictable and predicted at the time.

     There will be many repercussions and consequences yet to pay for western/NATO aggression. Ukraine will be carved up and left a rump state. The divisions in that society are too large and raw to just go away. EU/NATO and many western governments are yet to held account by their own populations who will be poorer and less secure because of the belligerence and aggression of their leaders. It is far from over yet.

Hi Gringo, yes your right, I think the main objective for Russia was to weaken NATO and mission accomplished.  I’ve said right from the Start, no other Country would want other Countries parking their armies on their doorstep,  could you imagine what the USA would do if Russia or China created a pact with Mexico,  look at the fall out from Cuba, the World order is changing.  I don’t actually like Putin, but I don’t think he was left much choice.  He’s in a strong position now, he’s caused havoc with inflation for the West, yet the Russian economy just grinds along.  Typical Russian tactics that the West cannot match, he plays the waiting game and doesn’t blink.

[gringo]

Hi Gringo, yes your right, I think the main objective for Russia was to weaken NATO and mission accomplished.  I’ve said right from the Start, no other Country would want other Countries parking their armies on their doorstep,  could you imagine what the USA would do if Russia or China created a pact with Mexico,  look at the fall out from Cuba, the World order is changing.  I don’t actually like Putin, but I don’t think he was left much choice.  He’s in a strong position now, he’s caused havoc with inflation for the West, yet the Russian economy just grinds along.  Typical Russian tactics that the West cannot match, he plays the waiting game and doesn’t blink.

    It was, as you say, predictable and predicted by anyone who wasn't brainwashed by incessant war propaganda from Western governments and media. I am in agreement with you that Putin and Russian leadership were left with no choice. The havoc currently underway in the Western economies was caused by Western belligerence rather than Putin, in my opinion. The self defeating nature of western sanctions cutting off their own supply of cheap reliable energy is having predictable consequences. It is all self inflicted. The terms that Russia offered in 2021 should have been taken seriously before the bloodshed and economic devastation. Russia/Putin will neither forget nor forgive.
      It has always been an obvious truism that the West cannot match Russian strategy/tactics. The casual dismissal by western media of Russian "meat waves" is obvious dumb propaganda meant only for the propagandised proles. Unfortunately our inept political class have been imbibing too much of the "kool aid" themselves and believed their own propaganda. The results of policy decisions based on "war propaganda" rather than "cold hard facts" are playing out now and into the future.

[Hardy Boy]

A superpower does not depend on a country like North Korea to help it throw out an occupying force (and fail). Neither does a superpower lose a third of its black sea fleet to a country with no navy.

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/25/ukraine-war-black-sea-fleet-crimea/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/north-korea-sending-a-second-wave-of-soldiers-to-ukraine/


Even I'm dissapointed with the Russian military. I was expecting modern warfare, not human wave meat grinders made possible by forced conscription of its young population.

I think your being really Naive about Russia David, make no mistake they could have flattened Ukraine if they wanted.  It's been mission accomplished as far as i can see, 20% land gain from Ukraine, Crimea will be recognised as Russia, and Nato has been put in it's place.  I think they have done rather well,  they have resisted from using Nuclear weapons, they've resisted the 200 billion of arms sent by the West and they have caused a split between the USA and Europe.  As i say mission Accomplished.

[gringo]

I think your being really Naive about Russia David, make no mistake they could have flattened Ukraine if they wanted.  It's been mission accomplished as far as i can see, 20% land gain from Ukraine, Crimea will be recognised as Russia, and Nato has been put in it's place.  I think they have done rather well,  they have resisted from using Nuclear weapons, they've resisted the 200 billion of arms sent by the West and they have caused a split between the USA and Europe.  As i say mission Accomplished.

   Very succintly put, HB.

[gringo]

    https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/1891594278133973005

    Lavrov spells it out, "You have to answer for your actions".
   

[David1819]

I think your being really Naive about Russia David, make no mistake they could have flattened Ukraine if they wanted.  It's been mission accomplished as far as i can see, 20% land gain from Ukraine, Crimea will be recognised as Russia, and Nato has been put in it's place.  I think they have done rather well,  they have resisted from using Nuclear weapons, they've resisted the 200 billion of arms sent by the West and they have caused a split between the USA and Europe.  As i say mission Accomplished.

The mission was to establish a pro Russian government in Kyiv and integrate Ukraine into the Union of Belarus and Russia. And to then exploit Ukraine's estimated $15 trillion mineral resources. With cars going electric, lithium is the new oil.


700,000 Russian soldiers killed or injured is not worth 20% of Ukraine. Then you have the Russian Ruble down 42% against the Dollar and down 37% against Chinese Yuan. Then you have Finland in NATO and Armenia leaving CTSO.

[Hardy Boy]

The mission was to establish a pro Russian government in Kyiv and integrate Ukraine into the Union of Belarus and Russia. And to then exploit Ukraine's estimated $15 trillion mineral resources. With cars going electric, lithium is the new oil.


700,000 Russian soldiers killed or injured is not worth 20% of Ukraine. Then you have the Russian Ruble down 42% against the Dollar and down 37% against Chinese Yuan. Then you have Finland in NATO and Armenia leaving CTSO.

The biggest part being in the Land Russia has got from Ukraine.  Don't rule out a pro Russian Government when the people of Ukraine see what thy have lost after the talks and then they have their next election which was put on hold.  The Russian Rouble against all odds is recovering and poses no Major risk to the Russian economy, the West have always told you they are struggling, just like Putin is dying and should be dead, both the Ruble and Putin are alive and Kicking

[Hardy Boy]

The mission was to establish a pro Russian government in Kyiv and integrate Ukraine into the Union of Belarus and Russia. And to then exploit Ukraine's estimated $15 trillion mineral resources. With cars going electric, lithium is the new oil.


700,000 Russian soldiers killed or injured is not worth 20% of Ukraine. Then you have the Russian Ruble down 42% against the Dollar and down 37% against Chinese Yuan. Then you have Finland in NATO and Armenia leaving CTSO.

So we are told, just like Putin is dying.

[Hardy Boy]

The mission was to establish a pro Russian government in Kyiv and integrate Ukraine into the Union of Belarus and Russia. And to then exploit Ukraine's estimated $15 trillion mineral resources. With cars going electric, lithium is the new oil.


700,000 Russian soldiers killed or injured is not worth 20% of Ukraine. Then you have the Russian Ruble down 42% against the Dollar and down 37% against Chinese Yuan. Then you have Finland in NATO and Armenia leaving CTSO.

Like i said.............................Ukraine may be Russian one day, says Trump as he hints at rare earth minerals deal

[Hardy Boy]

   Very succintly put, HB.

Seems the AI didn't predict this outcome for the Armchair warrior Gringo,  even though all along youv'e been spot on and tried your hardest to educate him and Steve,  I don't know the History of this region like you and NGB, but it was obvious to me that the Russian bear and Putin wouldn't give in?

[gringo]

The biggest part being in the Land Russia has got from Ukraine.  Don't rule out a pro Russian Government when the people of Ukraine see what thy have lost after the talks and then they have their next election which was put on hold.  The Russian Rouble against all odds is recovering and poses no Major risk to the Russian economy, the West have always told you they are struggling, just like Putin is dying and should be dead, both the Ruble and Putin are alive and Kicking

    Again, excellent and succinct summing up. You are on a roll, HB