Author Topic: Russia - worrying?  (Read 137686 times)

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Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3105 on: December 01, 2023, 09:37:PM »
Europe is not ready for war with Russia and could be “washed away” in the same way that the Holy Roman Empire was destroyed by Napoleon, said Professor of Military History at the University of Potsdam Sönke Neitzel, quoted by The Times.

The publication calls him "the leading academic authority on modern German military forces."

At a high-level defense conference in Berlin, several German generals also suggested that NATO may not be able to win the “first battle” in the event of aggression in eastern Europe because it would struggle to move enough troops and equipment quickly enough.

Neitzel called European logistics a “nightmare” and said Germany needed at least 15 years to prepare for war.

“It is absolutely clear: if our armed forces are going to fight, they will die without drones, without air defense, without sufficient supplies. Is our message [to German leaders] clear enough? They will die and that is your responsibility,” he said at the Berlin Security Conference.

    It appears that, "Professor of Military History at the University of Potsdam Sönke Neitzel and the leading academic authority on modern German military forces", obviously hasn't seen your 13 minute cartoon video, David.
   
I foresee an uneasy modus vivendi, whereby the Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mykolayiv and Zaporizhzhya  provinces remain under Russian hegemony whilst Kiev stays in the Western sphere.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2023, 09:37:PM by Steve_uk »

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3106 on: December 01, 2023, 10:46:PM »
I foresee an uneasy modus vivendi, whereby the Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mykolayiv and Zaporizhzhya  provinces remain under Russian hegemony whilst Kiev stays in the Western sphere.
    Crimea and the four oblasts are not up for negotiation. Kiev will probably remain in whatever rump state of Ukraine is left. The south of Ukraine and specifically Nikolaev and Odessa regions will become either independent states or regions of the Russian Federation, in my view. Without the status of Odessa changing in some way, it would be a constant threat to Crimea's Sevastopol base and Russia's Black sea fleet and Crimea generally. This is something that I don't expect Russia to tolerate. A demilitarised Odessa is a possibility but Russia will not allow any threat to linger on the Black Sea coast.
     What remains of Ukraine, if anything, will be land locked or at best have some limited access to the Black Sea. I expect, and always have, that a series of referenda will decide the status of each oblast when hostilities eventually cease. Russia has no interest in occupying territory with a hostile population and has no need of it. They will not tolerate a hostile neighbour being used as a cats paw by NATO either.  All of this has always been predictable.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3107 on: December 02, 2023, 09:24:AM »
    Crimea and the four oblasts are not up for negotiation. Kiev will probably remain in whatever rump state of Ukraine is left. The south of Ukraine and specifically Nikolaev and Odessa regions will become either independent states or regions of the Russian Federation, in my view. Without the status of Odessa changing in some way, it would be a constant threat to Crimea's Sevastopol base and Russia's Black sea fleet and Crimea generally. This is something that I don't expect Russia to tolerate. A demilitarised Odessa is a possibility but Russia will not allow any threat to linger on the Black Sea coast.
     What remains of Ukraine, if anything, will be land locked or at best have some limited access to the Black Sea. I expect, and always have, that a series of referenda will decide the status of each oblast when hostilities eventually cease. Russia has no interest in occupying territory with a hostile population and has no need of it. They will not tolerate a hostile neighbour being used as a cats paw by NATO either.  All of this has always been predictable.
I don't disagree with the analysis, but we were told initially that Ukraine was a Nazi state (despite Zelensky being of the Jewish faith), so it seems incredible that were that the case any remnant of the Ukrainian state would be allowed to remain standing. I'm afraid Putin and Lavrov have very little credibility in my eyes now, and should similarly be treated as the war criminals Bush and Blair undoubtedly are.

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3108 on: December 02, 2023, 11:15:AM »
    Crimea and the four oblasts are not up for negotiation.

They don't even control all the oblast capitols (Kerson and Zaporizhzhia) and only 50% of Donetsk.

Hiding behind the Denipro river and mine fields. They won't be accumulating any more territory.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3109 on: December 02, 2023, 11:41:AM »
They don't even control all the oblast capitols (Kerson and Zaporizhzhia) and only 50% of Donetsk.

Hiding behind the Denipro river and mine fields. They won't be accumulating any more territory.
They don't need to. All they wanted was to protect the spoils of February 2014, namely Crimea.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3110 on: December 02, 2023, 12:36:PM »
I don't disagree with the analysis, but we were told initially that Ukraine was a Nazi state (despite Zelensky being of the Jewish faith), so it seems incredible that were that the case any remnant of the Ukrainian state would be allowed to remain standing. I'm afraid Putin and Lavrov have very little credibility in my eyes now, and should similarly be treated as the war criminals Bush and Blair undoubtedly are.
     The Ukrainian state that will be left standing will be de-nazified and demilitarised. The nazi language policies etc will be consigned to the dustbin. Putin and Lavrov probably won't lose too much sleep over their credibility in the eyes of indoctrinated westerners. In world wide terms it isn't the Russian leadership whose credibility is shot. The ridiculous notion that being Jewish prevents you from holding Nazi supremacist beliefs is false.
     Your comparison of Putin/Lavrov to Bush/Blair is also false but you are at least getting on the right track. Bush/Blair and every US president since and UK PM since their Iraq crimes are also war criminals and have carried on with the same orders. Obama, Trump, Biden, Cameron, Johnson and on and on.
     Putin, Xi and Lavrov and co are the antidote to the western criminal governments. It is impossible to honestly compare the actions of Russian leadership with those of the US/UK. Their running dogs in the EU/NATO also warrant a dishonourable mention.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2023, 12:56:PM by gringo »

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3111 on: December 02, 2023, 01:23:PM »
     The Ukrainian state that will be left standing will be de-nazified and demilitarised. The nazi language policies etc will be consigned to the dustbin. Putin and Lavrov probably won't lose too much sleep over their credibility in the eyes of indoctrinated westerners. In world wide terms it isn't the Russian leadership whose credibility is shot. The ridiculous notion that being Jewish prevents you from holding Nazi supremacist beliefs is false.
     Your comparison of Putin/Lavrov to Bush/Blair is also false but you are at least getting on the right track. Bush/Blair and every US president since and UK PM since their Iraq crimes are also war criminals and have carried on with the same orders. Obama, Trump, Biden, Cameron, Johnson and on and on.
     Putin, Xi and Lavrov and co are the antidote to the western criminal governments. It is impossible to honestly compare the actions of Russian leadership with those of the US/UK. Their running dogs in the EU/NATO also warrant a dishonourable mention.
But where is the democratic legitimacy for those governments? How do you know Putin didn't deliberately foment insurrection in Donetsk and Luhansk? Why does Xi ignore court rulings on the South China Sea and what would you say to a Taiwan invasion? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china
« Last Edit: December 02, 2023, 01:23:PM by Steve_uk »

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3112 on: December 02, 2023, 01:44:PM »
But where is the democratic legitimacy for those governments? How do you know Putin didn't deliberately foment insurrection in Donetsk and Luhansk? Why does Xi ignore court rulings on the South China Sea and what would you say to a Taiwan invasion? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china
    Their "democratic legitimacy" as you call it, is simply a talking point that you have fallen for. It is for you, and me, to concern ourselves with the legitimacy of "our own" governments. It is simple western arrogance and colonial white mans burden thinking to appoint ourselves as arbiters of which governments have "legitimacy" and who doesn't. This all comes from the governments who are responsible for wars and invasions that have destroyed countries and killed millions. Democratic legitimacy  :-[ :-[
      Your concerns are not valid. Putin didn't need or want to "foment insurrection" in Ukraine and it is a bizarre question. The South China Sea is an issue that is provoked and fomented by outsiders from the West, as is the Taiwan issue. Both of these will be solved and the only threat of war is the west provoking and fomenting it. The veil is well and truly removed from the western governments whose own legitimacy is way more open to question than those that you name.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3113 on: December 02, 2023, 02:06:PM »
But where is the democratic legitimacy for those governments? How do you know Putin didn't deliberately foment insurrection in Donetsk and Luhansk? Why does Xi ignore court rulings on the South China Sea and what would you say to a Taiwan invasion? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china
     Does it occur to you, Steve, that the same people whipping up your concern about China "invading" Taiwan are the same people who actually do plan and carry out invasions of other sovereign states? Do the Chinese state have a track record of invasions? What about our own governments-do they have a track record of invading and bombing other countries?
     Instead of concerning yourself with hypothetical invasions(with no basis) and what we should think/do about them- you would do better by concerning yourself with the real invasions/bombings of Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria and on and on. Those were all done by the same governments whose words you still repeat. You need to break the programming and realise that the greatest "fomenter" of wars and unrest aren't China, Russia or Iran, it is our government.

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3114 on: December 02, 2023, 02:20:PM »
Two Ukrainian servicemen decided to surrender to representatives of the Russian forces. Then get executed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1890xkl/russians_continue_to_commit_atrocities_in_ukraine/

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3115 on: December 02, 2023, 02:46:PM »
     Does it occur to you, Steve, that the same people whipping up your concern about China "invading" Taiwan are the same people who actually do plan and carry out invasions of other sovereign states? Do the Chinese state have a track record of invasions? What about our own governments-do they have a track record of invading and bombing other countries?
     Instead of concerning yourself with hypothetical invasions(with no basis) and what we should think/do about them- you would do better by concerning yourself with the real invasions/bombings of Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria and on and on. Those were all done by the same governments whose words you still repeat. You need to break the programming and realise that the greatest "fomenter" of wars and unrest aren't China, Russia or Iran, it is our government.
But the one doesn't excuse the other. You would never get the following report emanating from a Russian or a Chinese parliamentary organ: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2000/06/kos1-j14.html

Everyone knows Xi is itching to invade Taiwan..https://www.reuters.com/world/us/xi-told-biden-taiwan-is-biggest-most-dangerous-issue-bilateral-ties-us-official-2023-11-16/

..and everyone knows Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, funding Hezbollah, just as a handful of Qatari billionaires enjoy their sport funding Hamas.

Offline Steve_uk

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3116 on: December 02, 2023, 02:48:PM »
Two Ukrainian servicemen decided to surrender to representatives of the Russian forces. Then get executed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1890xkl/russians_continue_to_commit_atrocities_in_ukraine/
How shocking. No democratic accountability. They will never be brought to justice.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3117 on: December 02, 2023, 02:57:PM »
But the one doesn't excuse the other. You would never get the following report emanating from a Russian or a Chinese parliamentary organ: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2000/06/kos1-j14.html

Everyone knows Xi is itching to invade Taiwan..https://www.reuters.com/world/us/xi-told-biden-taiwan-is-biggest-most-dangerous-issue-bilateral-ties-us-official-2023-11-16/

..and everyone knows Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, funding Hezbollah, just as a handful of Qatari billionaires enjoy their sport funding Hamas.
    As I say, Steve, you need to concentrate your gaze nearer to home. The death and destruction caused by our own government along with other co-conspirators is unparalleled and your above links don't even challenge that. Who have China actually invaded? or Iran? You allow yourself to be sucked in by propaganda fed to you by the people who are guilty of the most horrendous crimes against humanity, whose actual crimes you ignore whilst concentrating on the hypothetical fantasies of war criminals.

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #3118 on: December 03, 2023, 01:30:PM »
Ukrainian drone wounds Russian invader. The pain proves to be to much for him.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/189qw6s/ukrainian_drone_wounds_russian_invader_the_pain/

Offline Roch

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« Last Edit: December 14, 2023, 02:18:PM by Roch »