Let's cut to the chase gringo: what will the settlement or the outcome of this war be?
The security proposals put forward by Russia in December 2021 will, in my opinion, be the basis of any negotiated settlement. There is no doubt that Russia will achieve their goals in Ukraine and there never has been. Either militarily or via negotiation, the end result will be the removal of any NATO missiles from Russian borders. This includes Romania, Poland et al. The proposals are outlined below but were ignored by the US/NATO/EU who were all given the proposals and invited to respond. Their response was exactly as expected. They ignored and derided Russia for having the temerity to demand to speak as equals .
https://tass.com/politics/1421141 NATO belligerence via their proxy Ukraine means that the terms being offered will get worse each time. Where previously Russia would have settled for referenda and self determination in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea-that ship has sailed.
The speeches and pronouncements by Putin and other official Russian spokespersons have made clear that increasing belligerence by NATO are only leading to expanded Russian goals.
I expect that Odessa, Nikolaev, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia along with Kherson, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk will all have referendums and separate from Ukraine.
The old scores to be settled in the west of Ukraine are a different kettle of fish. The Poles, Hungary, Romania-all may take previously Polish, Hungarian etc. land. There is much bad blood still simmering from WW2 and atrocities committed by the Ukrainian Nazis particularly in those areas(Galicia, Lvov). Ukraine will be, at best, a rump state with no coastal access and probably will cease to exist as a state.
When Ukraine is done, and Russia are in no rush, then the other matters of mutual security will be addressed. The world is changing, Steve. We are living through a moment of history that changes the world. The mutual security guarantees that Russia proposed in December 2021 will be implemented.
Russia's goals at the start of the SMO were made clear. The whole "can't take Kiev in 3 days" and other bullshit is a western invention to support their pre-ordained narrative of Russian failure. Russia have never stated that they would take Kiev in 3 days. They could. It would cause great destruction and cause massive civilian deaths. Which is why they don't. NATO have no such qualms about civilian casualties (collateral damage) and use shock and awe tactics on civilians. This mindset is projected onto everybody else.
Russia's goals were demilitarisating and de-Nazifying Ukraine. Not conquering territory. When Ukraine is demilitarised and de-Nazified(this is a euphemism for De-NATOfied by the way) then each oblast will decide for themselves via referenda what their future is. The true losses will no longer be able to be hidden or obfuscated in western media very soon. Ukraine/NATO are getting slaughtered and attrited at rates that they cannot sustain.
I have asked before but received no reply on this question. What do you think Ukrainian/NATO victory even is? Can you define it? Is a Ukrainian/NATO victory even possible? Does it include Crimea? Donetsk? etc. What happens to the now pro-Russian people that Ukraine would be governing?
There is no realistic scenario of Ukrainian/NATO victory that I can see that settles anything. The only way is self determination of the Ukrainians, oblast by oblast. Russia would not oppose this. A map of every Ukrainian election since 1991 shows quite clearly the divide between the largely ethnic Russian East and South and the west of Ukraine. Many oblasts would vote to join Russia or become independent but aligned with Russia. This is well known even though it isn't discussed in any western "analysis".
