Author Topic: Russia - worrying?  (Read 364387 times)

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Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2565 on: February 20, 2023, 05:44:PM »
      Truth is not pro Russian, pro Syrian, pro Iranian-it is just truth. NATO is an aggressive and criminal organisation acting at the behest of Imperialists/Colonialists. To not recognise that truth renders anything else claimed as false.
     It should be an accepted premise by anyone claiming to want an honest conversation about geopolitics that NATO are criminally aggressive. Everything leads from that. Non recognition of that premise is dishonest. Any commentary that fails to recognise that premise is worthless.

Offline Roch

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2566 on: February 20, 2023, 08:19:PM »
     My position is well explained and is anti imperialist. NGB clearly is a more discerning reader than others. I am no more pro-Russia than I am pro-Iran or Syria or Libya. I don't have to support Assad or Ghaddafi or Raisi to recognise that the countries that they lead or led are the victims of Western aggression.
    The both sides equally as bad approach is a cop out and weak fence sitting position. There is an aggressor and there is the victim of that aggression. Making pissy excuses for aggressive imperialism by claiming that the other side is as bad is to be an apologist for that aggression with no courage behind the conviction. There is no conviction in fact. And yet NATO aggression is undeniable.
    I am pro-anyone who is the victim of aggression. How their country is governed is not my business. It has no bearing on who is the aggressor. NATO are an aggressive organisation. Every single piece of available evidence tells you this.
   

In terms of dead children, destroyed infrastructure etc. Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine. I may be allowed to empathise with Russia's position in geopolitics but that doesn't mean I should excuse their actions in Ukraine.

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2567 on: February 20, 2023, 08:59:PM »
Gringo July 2022 - "Russia will take the entire Ukrainian coast, including Odesa"

Four month later, Russia is forced to withdraw from Kherson and still have not returned.

Gringo January 2023 - "Kiev is about to collapse!"

One month later - Kyiv is safe and stable enough for the US president to come and visit.

Gringo February 2023 - "Russia is about to drop the hammer".

Stay tuned for another episode of Gringos looney predictions.

 

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2568 on: February 20, 2023, 09:30:PM »
In terms of dead children, destroyed infrastructure etc. Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine. I may be allowed to empathise with Russia's position in geopolitics but that doesn't mean I should excuse their actions in Ukraine.
   That is a bold statement based on no evidence. Russia's legal argument has been made clear. You don't have to support that position but you need a better argument than the un-evidenced. "In terms of dead children, destroyed infrastructure etc. Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine."
    Were there no "dead children" before Russian intervention? There are a remarkably low(for the size of conflict) count of dead civilians in this conflict. This according to AP, Reuters etc.? Have Russia targeted children? Have Ukraine/NATO? Do NATO target civilians? Who destroyed which infrastructure? Did Russia blow up Nord-Stream(an act of terrorism against Russia and Germany, Netherlands, France who all had stakes in NS? You are guilty of looking at very one sided reportage and see only Russian "crimes". The crimes of the Ukrainian/NATO side are state sponsored and supported. The attempts to destabilise Russia using Ukraine as a proxy are already an act of war, as are the economic blockades(illegal sanctions). Russia, in the opinion of myself and most of the world outside of the censored, brainwashed, propagandised NATO states and vassals, was justified to act to prevent Ukraine/NATO aggression and preparations to invade and subjugate the civilian population.
    The legal justification offered by Russia is the Responsibility to Protect(R2P) using Article 51 of the UN charter. The same legal argument put forth by NATO to justify their aggression in Serbia/Kosovo.
    Which of Russia/NATO, Roch, being as objective as you can be, do you think has the more "convincing case"?

    Is it Russia who helped draft agreements, took those agreements to the UNSC, made sure independent observers recorded all violations of both sides, constantly pushed for the implementation of those agreements over 8 years, saw those agreements ignored and admitted by NATO/Ukraine, saw that the shelling and troop build up had increased in preparation for more aggression(all recorded independently by OSCE -so non arguable). After the independently recorded massive increase in aggression -then and only then, Russia invoked Art 51 and R2P.

    Or do NATO have a more compelling case for invoking R2P Art. 51 in Serbia? Let us dis-passionately look at the evidence to support NATO's humanitarian Art 51 R2P intervention.
    There were reports in media, since proven to be, at best, a mis-representation.
    So NATO went to the UNSC and...only joking-of course they didn't attempt to settle things diplomatically or get agreements to the UNSC. NATO unilaterally decided to intervene using Art. 51 R2P as their justification based on press reports.

    Russia's foreign interventions since becoming the RF in 1991 speak for themselves. They are, at least, arguably justified and some(such as Syria) not even arguable and entirely legal and justified by any measure. NATO's interventions likewise, speak for themselves. It is difficult to justify any of them. The amount of death, destruction and displacement caused by NATO has no comparison. The crimes committed by NATO are many magnitudes greater than any combination of other countries. Anyone in NATO-land pointing at the "crimes" of other countries has most of the world shaking their heads in dis-belief at the entitled lack of self awareness. It would be akin to Ian Huntley calling for the death sentence for shoplifters and expecting to be taken seriously. 

     
   
     

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2569 on: February 20, 2023, 09:41:PM »
Gringo July 2022 - "Russia will take the entire Ukrainian coast, including Odesa"

Four month later, Russia is forced to withdraw from Kherson and still have not returned.

Gringo January 2023 - "Kiev is about to collapse!"

One month later - Kyiv is safe and stable enough for the US president to come and visit.

Gringo February 2023 - "Russia is about to drop the hammer".

Stay tuned for another episode of Gringos looney predictions.
    All of those things will happen. I don't get your point. Ukraine will not be left with Odessa when this ends. The Kiev government is certain to collapse. Russia are about to drop the hammer. The 300,000 (+80,000 volunteers) reservists called up months back are building up everywhere across the lines, Putin giving speech tomorrow followed immediately by an extraordinary session of the Duma. This tells that something big is about to be announced that needs ratifying.
    It is the one year anniversary of the last time this happened. 21/02/22. And you know what happened next. 21/02/23 -what comes next? Those troops, planes, tanks, artillery are building up ready to drop the hammer.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2570 on: February 20, 2023, 10:34:PM »
In terms of dead children, destroyed infrastructure etc. Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine. I may be allowed to empathise with Russia's position in geopolitics but that doesn't mean I should excuse their actions in Ukraine.
    This is going on now and has been since 2014(about the same time span as Ukraine) and is not some historic crime;

  The UN has estimated that the war in Yemen had killed 377,000 people by the end of 2021, through direct and indirect causes. Over 150,000 of these deaths were the direct result of the armed conflict, while far more have died due to hunger and disease as a result of the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. Nearly 15,000 civilians have been killed by direct military action, most of them in air strikes  by the Saudi-led Coalition.

Air raids have frequently targeted civilian gatherings such as weddings and busy market places where there was no military target nearby, often with extremely deadly consequences. Many of these air raids appear to be clear violations of International Humanitarian Law.

Despite UK government claims that it provides training to the Coalition to avoid civilian casualties, there is no sign that this has reduced the deadly toll of the air raids. UK-manufactured weapons have been tied to individual attacks violating International Humanitarian Law.


    There are somewhere between 8,000 and 9,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine. Most of them victims of Ukraine targeting, as it happens.
    There are 377,000 deaths from war and the humanitarian crisis caused by the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure in Yemen. The UK government are co-conspirators in this ongoing brutal imperialist crime. You should be more concerned with what your government is doing-not concerning yourself with what our government is claiming someone else is doing.
     What reporting have you heard on Yemen? It isn't less important just because our media don't talk about it. Shouldn't we all be more concerned with UK crimes/atrocities?
     In Ukraine also the UK along with the US is committing crimes. What are they even doing there? What is UK/NATO justification for involvement now in Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Ukraine, interfering in Chinese affairs(Taiwan)? How is Russian intervention in Ukraine comparable to ongoing UK aggression/criminality?
     They are not as bad as each other.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/the-war-on-yemens-civilians/
« Last Edit: February 20, 2023, 10:47:PM by gringo »

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2571 on: February 21, 2023, 07:25:AM »
Talking of Communism Neil. I am playing a new game that's been released today. Its based in an alternate 1955 Communist utopia with lots of robots!







https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Heart_(video_game)

Offline Roch

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2572 on: February 21, 2023, 09:36:AM »
    This is going on now and has been since 2014(about the same time span as Ukraine) and is not some historic crime;

  The UN has estimated that the war in Yemen had killed 377,000 people by the end of 2021, through direct and indirect causes. Over 150,000 of these deaths were the direct result of the armed conflict, while far more have died due to hunger and disease as a result of the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. Nearly 15,000 civilians have been killed by direct military action, most of them in air strikes  by the Saudi-led Coalition.

Air raids have frequently targeted civilian gatherings such as weddings and busy market places where there was no military target nearby, often with extremely deadly consequences. Many of these air raids appear to be clear violations of International Humanitarian Law.

Despite UK government claims that it provides training to the Coalition to avoid civilian casualties, there is no sign that this has reduced the deadly toll of the air raids. UK-manufactured weapons have been tied to individual attacks violating International Humanitarian Law.


    There are somewhere between 8,000 and 9,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine. Most of them victims of Ukraine targeting, as it happens.
    There are 377,000 deaths from war and the humanitarian crisis caused by the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure in Yemen. The UK government are co-conspirators in this ongoing brutal imperialist crime. You should be more concerned with what your government is doing-not concerning yourself with what our government is claiming someone else is doing.
     What reporting have you heard on Yemen? It isn't less important just because our media don't talk about it. Shouldn't we all be more concerned with UK crimes/atrocities?
     In Ukraine also the UK along with the US is committing crimes. What are they even doing there? What is UK/NATO justification for involvement now in Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Ukraine, interfering in Chinese affairs(Taiwan)? How is Russian intervention in Ukraine comparable to ongoing UK aggression/criminality?
     They are not as bad as each other.

https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/the-war-on-yemens-civilians/

I am no fan of our foreign policy and arms sales etc. It is a disgrace what has happened in the countries you refer to. It's a disgrace that it isn't headline news over here.

I am very sceptical that Ukrainian forces are responsible for devastating whole built up areas in Ukraine that are populated by Ukrainians loyal to Ukraine etc. It's possible they have had some input in this.

I just don't see Russia in exactly the same favourable light as you do. There's an old saying: two wrongs don't make a right.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2573 on: February 21, 2023, 11:47:AM »
I am no fan of our foreign policy and arms sales etc. It is a disgrace what has happened in the countries you refer to. It's a disgrace that it isn't headline news over here.

I am very sceptical that Ukrainian forces are responsible for devastating whole built up areas in Ukraine that are populated by Ukrainians loyal to Ukraine etc. It's possible they have had some input in this.

I just don't see Russia in exactly the same favourable light as you do. There's an old saying: two wrongs don't make a right.
    There aren't two wrongs. One is a reaction to the other. Is Russia's use of Art. 51 justified? You haven't answered the crucial point and that is the crux of it. If it isn't legal and justified, then point out how?
    Both NATO and Russia have used the R2P doctrine under Article 51 of UN Charter. Were either legal and justified? If so-why? If not- why?
    At least make your position clear if you are going to criticise my position. You are just basically saying, "Russia bad", Roch. Why, how? Spell out the flaws in their legal justification. If you can't then you need to check your too "pro-NATO position. Simply admitting that our foreign policy should be criticised more is weak.
   Two wrongs is a joke coming from anyone in Natostan. Too many wrongs to count. The lack of self awareness behind a statement such as that is staggering. NATO crimes are without comparison. How do you, with a straight face, compare Russian actions unfavourably against NATO? It is delusional.
   

Offline Roch

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2574 on: February 21, 2023, 12:11:PM »
    There aren't two wrongs. One is a reaction to the other. Is Russia's use of Art. 51 justified? You haven't answered the crucial point and that is the crux of it. If it isn't legal and justified, then point out how?
    Both NATO and Russia have used the R2P doctrine under Article 51 of UN Charter. Were either legal and justified? If so-why? If not- why?
    At least make your position clear if you are going to criticise my position. You are just basically saying, "Russia bad", Roch. Why, how? Spell out the flaws in their legal justification. If you can't then you need to check your too "pro-NATO position. Simply admitting that our foreign policy should be criticised more is weak.
   Two wrongs is a joke coming from anyone in Natostan. Too many wrongs to count. The lack of self awareness behind a statement such as that is staggering. NATO crimes are without comparison. How do you, with a straight face, compare Russian actions unfavourably against NATO? It is delusional.
   

That's all very technical and I have no doubt you know what you're talking about. However, I simply don't believe that Russia should have invaded Ukraine. It has been a catastrophic decision. I expect that if we wound back the clock to over a year ago, and Russia was in possession of hindsight, all of the Russian forces would have been stood down. The invasion would never had went ahead.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2575 on: February 21, 2023, 12:13:PM »
     How should we compare the crimes of Russia and NATO? What metric should we use? Just to make sure that they "are as bad as each other" and that NATO v Russia is a case of "two wrongs"- We need to have some objective way of measuring those wrongs.

     Should we use death count from military interventions/invasions/bombings?
     How about the amount of countries invaded/interfered in?
     Maybe the number of countries that are illegally occupied by foreign troops?
     The amount of ordnance and missiles is perhaps a reasonable metric?
     Number of Presidents of sovereign states overthrown and/or murdered?
     What about the amount of illegal (under UN Charter) sanctions imposed on countries amounting to economic blockades depriving children of food and medicine? Are there any interviews with Russian officials admitting to 500,000 deaths of Iraqi or any children because of their sanctions and saying that it was worth it?
     
     By any metric, NATO crimes are without comparison. NATO need to be brought down for the sake of the world. Whilst Ukraine is ongoing NATO are at war all over the world still.
    If you believe that Russia, China, Iran or anyone "are as bad" as NATO, then choose your metric.

   

Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2576 on: February 21, 2023, 12:29:PM »
     How should we compare the crimes of Russia and NATO? What metric should we use? Just to make sure that they "are as bad as each other" and that NATO v Russia is a case of "two wrongs"- We need to have some objective way of measuring those wrongs.

     Should we use death count from military interventions/invasions/bombings?
     How about the amount of countries invaded/interfered in?
     Maybe the number of countries that are illegally occupied by foreign troops?
     The amount of ordnance and missiles is perhaps a reasonable metric?
     Number of Presidents of sovereign states overthrown and/or murdered?
     What about the amount of illegal (under UN Charter) sanctions imposed on countries amounting to economic blockades depriving children of food and medicine? Are there any interviews with Russian officials admitting to 500,000 deaths of Iraqi or any children because of their sanctions and saying that it was worth it?
     
     By any metric, NATO crimes are without comparison. NATO need to be brought down for the sake of the world. Whilst Ukraine is ongoing NATO are at war all over the world still.
    If you believe that Russia, China, Iran or anyone "are as bad" as NATO, then choose your metric.

 

Whataboutism. One of the oldest tricks in the Tankie book


Offline David1819

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2577 on: February 21, 2023, 12:32:PM »

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2578 on: February 21, 2023, 01:44:PM »
That's all very technical and I have no doubt you know what you're talking about. However, I simply don't believe that Russia should have invaded Ukraine. It has been a catastrophic decision. I expect that if we wound back the clock to over a year ago, and Russia was in possession of hindsight, all of the Russian forces would have been stood down. The invasion would never had went ahead.
   It isn't that technical, Roch. It isn't a difficult concept to understand. Simply "not believing" without knowing how or why, is no kind of position.
     Art. 51 of the UN Charter is the right to self defence and collective self defence if attacked(in a nutshell)
     R2P (Responsibility to Protect) is a doctrine which justifies intervention by other states to prevent crimes against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing and war crimes. Whilst a UN endorsed principle-it has no specific legal framework
     R2P is controversial and undoubtedly has been abused as a principle in the past(but that is a different discussion). The breaching of the sovereignty of any nation, which R2P by definition must do, is what makes the invocation of R2P fraught with legal and ethical challenges under International Law. What are the limits  of R2P? Again though, that is a different discussion.
    The first time that Responsibility to protect doctrine was used to bomb and invade a country was in 1999 in Serbia. Although that is not quite true? NATO justified their bombing under that pretext. R2P was discussed at the UN, years after this in response. As I said, however there is no legal framework around the generally agreed principles of when R2P is justified(crimes against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing and war crimes).
     NATO, to justify their use of a concept that they just produced from thin air, relied entirely on intelligence reports and stories in their own controlled press. This isn't my opinion. It is what happened. There were no attempts at diplomacy, independent observers being appointed by the UN-nothing. NATO decided without any UN authority or consultation, without even bothering to take it to the UN, that NATO had the authority and legal justification to "prevent genocide" based on media reports.
     It is indefensible.
     Russia did attempt diplomacy and agreements to solve issues first. Took it to the UN. Had the OSCE appointed to independently report and verify each sides efforts towards the agreements and breaches of those agreements. Look up the OSCE reports where you will be able to see which side was the aggressor and shelling civilians. It is independently recorded. Russia, at least, made sure that events of the last eight years are a matter of record.
     All that I have stated above should be discussed in the media. In years past it would have been. At least it would then be an honest discussion. It could be argued that the whole R2P doctrine is flawed. I would agree. It interferes in a nations sovereignty arbitrarily. R2P has clearly been abused in the past by powerful countries/alliances to further their own interests whilst hiding behind humanitarianism.
     All being said, Ukraine's crimes against their own citizens are undeniable and a matter of record(even though not discussed in censored Natostan).
     Those are the differences between NATO and Russia invoking of R2P, Roch.
     Should Russia have done nothing and allowed the crimes against humanity being committed by the Ukraine Armed Forces to continue and accelerate as they were undoubtedly about to do? OSCE reports make this clear. OSCE are not Russian mis-information.
     Everyone knows now that the "Russian invasion" was most certainly not, "unprovoked".
     Far from being a catastrophic decision for Russia-it has been a disaster for NATO. Russia would do some things differently, but they would have acted even with the benefit of hindsight. This moment has been building for years and is about much more than Ukraine. It is barely about Ukraine at all. It just happens to be the square on the board chosen to start hostilities. The real war-to end Western financial hegemony is going disastrously for NATO's puppet masters. Long in the planning by China, Russia and the burgeoning trading and economic blocs that they are the vanguard of. Preparations have been long in the making and it is pretty clear that Empire has been out manoeuvred.
    Russia cannot have nuclear missiles aimed at them on their border, just like US wouldn't allow them on their border. Their status as the two nuclear superpowers dictates that this is the Real-Politik of the situation. It is criminally insane for NATO governments to act this aggressively towards Russia.

Offline gringo

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Re: Russia - worrying?
« Reply #2579 on: February 21, 2023, 05:09:PM »
     It could be argued that a UNSC resolution should be required to receive legal cover to act using R2P. Under some circumstances that would be a reasonable argument. The problem in this approach however is the veto wielding power held by the Permanent 5(P5) in the UN Security Council. This veto power would allow the P5 and allies to act with impunity, safe in the knowledge that they can veto any resolution put forward.
     The argument used by NATO in not seeking Security Council prior to bombing Serbia(including the deliberate targeting of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade-killing 3 journalists) was that any resolution would be vetoed by China and Russia. China/Russia would have vetoed it but this was because NATO had no casus belli or justification.
     Russia would also have been vetoed by UK/US and France(the other P5 members) if they had put forward a resolution to legally allow military intervention to prevent aggression from Ukraine.
     It is a thorny problem. When is intervention justified? Who is the arbiter of what constitutes crimes against humanity and when military intervention is allowed? The Security Council is the obvious answer but comes up against the problem above. If one of the P5 has a "dog in the fight" then they will act out of self interest and can stop any action with their veto power.
     Taking away veto power would seem the solution but is not the panacea it seems. Whilst often abused, veto power has also been used wisely to prevent conflicts on occasions. It has also traditionally acted as a restraint on competing power blocs-both with the ability to veto each other.
     
     In the 2,000's a number of R2P resolutions were passed in the Security Council. This is largely what led to sanctions on governments, particularly in Africa. Used by NATO to abuse the no fly zone in Libya in 2011. China and Russia felt betrayed by this action and learnt their lesson. Since then NATO abuse Int'l law flagrantly and speak instead of the "International Rules Based Order"-a meaningless concept which they hide behind to justify their crimes to their own easily led citizenry.
    Without trying to at least having a passing acquaintance with the issues at hand, it isn't possible to have a meaningful opinion. That is why I always ask, always forlornly, for posters to articulate their own response when claiming to debate. If a poster genuinely "believes" their position and claim that is what they personally "think"- then it should be simple to articulate that view. If they can't advocate their "own" argument then it is reasonable for me to assume that they are simply telling me what someone else told them, without knowing the details. "Thought" requires more effort.
    Meaningful debate involves more than saying someone is wrong or misinformed. If you can't articulate how or why, then that should act as a stimulus to digging deeper yourself. If you don't have the answers then maybe you should be checking yourself.
   
« Last Edit: February 21, 2023, 05:17:PM by gringo »