Russia - worrying?

[David1819]

Roch, what do you think will happen to Putin? He has no easy way out of this.

[Roch]

Russia have fired 600 cruise missiles so far.

The Ukrainian troops seem mostly dispersed in the cities, lurking in buildings waiting with anti tank and anti aircraft rockets. The Russians will either need to fight door to door or reduce to cities to nothing via artillery.

Russia claims to have destroyed over 900 Ukrainian tanks.

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/76081/

It's difficult to see how Russia can sustain its original aims. The sanctions will be crippling the state financially, but certain NATO countries will pour in millions, if not billions, in funding and arms to prop up the Ukrainian defence.

Having said that, if the figure is believed, I doubt over 900 tanks can be replaced, even by accosting abandoned Russian vehicles. But the Ukrainians will probably have other stocks replenished.

[Roch]

Roch, what do you think will happen to Putin? He has no easy way out of this.

He could be finished. Maybe someone will assassinate him? Or arrest him?

[David1819]

It's difficult to see how Russia can sustain its original aims. The sanctions will be crippling the state financially, but certain NATO countries will pour in millions, if not billions, in funding and arms to prop up the Ukrainian defence.

Having said that, if the figure is believed, I doubt over 900 tanks can be replaced, even by accosting abandoned Russian vehicles. But the Ukrainians will probably have other stocks replenished.

According to Lavrov, Russia has not invaded Ukraine 

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tawbdo/russian_foreign_minister_lavrov_says_russia_didnt/

[Jane]

He could be finished. Maybe someone will assassinate him? Or arrest him?

It was a revolution which deposed the Tsar. Another revolution, perhaps? Another Stalin?

[Roch]

It was a revolution which deposed the Tsar. Another revolution, perhaps? Another Stalin?

Who knows Jane.  But somebody needs to answer for blunders regarding this operation. Stalin would probably have purged his generals for the way this operation has gone so far (if accounts are to be believed).

[David1819]

Who knows Jane.  But somebody needs to answer for blunders regarding this operation. Stalin would probably have purged his generals for the way this operation has gone so far (if accounts are to be believed).

You need to give the Ukrainians credit for putting up fierce resistance, its not purely down to poor Russian planning.

After all the 300 Spartans lost the battle of Thermopylae.

[Roch]

You need to give the Ukrainians credit for putting up fierce resistance, its not purely down to poor Russian planning.

Afterall the 300 Spartans lost the battle of Thermopylae.

They've obviously been trained and set up to be able to resist, precisely because of the possibility of invasion. But the Russians' intelligence should have picked that up. It shouldn't have been a surprise.

It now looks to me as if NATO had far better intelligence on Russia's plans than Russia did regarding the condition of Ukraine's forces.

You can't blame Ukraine for being prepared. But you can blame Russia for being duped. Looks very sloppy for a major military force.

[David1819]

They've obviously been trained and set up to be able to resist, precisely because of the possibility of invasion. But the Russians' intelligence should have picked that up. It shouldn't have been a surprise.

It now looks to me as if NATO had far better intelligence on Russia's plans than Russia did regarding the condition of Ukraine's forces.

You can't blame Ukraine for being prepared. But you can blame Russia for being duped. Looks very sloppy for a major military force.

There are two main problems with the Russian invasion -

Firstly, the war is not in the hearts and minds of the Russian troops. They have no real cause contrary to the Ukranians.

Secondly, there is major corruption in the Russian military whereby a lot of the defence budget is embezzled.

You can read more about that here - https://sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2018/05/Russian-Defense-Corruption-Report-Beliakova-Perlo-Freeman-20180502-final.pdf


Putin also miscalculated, believing the Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east would welcome his troops like they did in Crimea. Lets face it, he lives in a palace surrounded by yes men and has very little political opposition to criticise him and give him a reality check. Plus he is 70 years old now and is probably suffering from cognitive decline.

[killingeve]

Roch, what do you think will happen to Putin? He has no easy way out of this.

Much of what you've posted here is at odds with historian David Starkey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he25Rl0fE1c

[Roch]

Much of what you've posted here is at odds with historian David Starkey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he25Rl0fE1c

His lungs are giving way by the sounds of it. He reminds me of Kessler from Secret Army. Did you watch any of his history programs?

[David1819]

As War Drags On, Russia Expert Says ‘Putin Needs To Watch His Back’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaD46FGRIt4

[David1819]

Edward Snowden has been very quiet lately 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/why-so-silent-edward-snowden-has-gone-underground-since-russias-invasion

[killingeve]

His lungs are giving way by the sounds of it. He reminds me of Kessler from Secret Army. Did you watch any of his history programs?

No I didn't watch any of his progs.  I'm not a fan.  Niall Ferguson is my go-to history man.  Far easier on the ear and eye 

[Roch]

There are two main problems with the Russian invasion -

Firstly, the war is not in the hearts and minds of the Russian troops. They have no real cause contrary to the Ukranians.

Secondly, there is major corruption in the Russian military whereby a lot of the defence budget is embezzled.

You can read more about that here - https://sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2018/05/Russian-Defense-Corruption-Report-Beliakova-Perlo-Freeman-20180502-final.pdf


Putin also miscalculated, believing the Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east would welcome his troops like they did in Crimea. Lets face it, he lives in a palace surrounded by yes men and has very little political opposition to criticise him and give him a reality check. Plus he is 70 years old now and is probably suffering from cognitive decline.

Due think that Russia could have been lured in to taking this action, over a period of time, precisely because weaknesses were known and therefore could be exploited? That would of course be extremely sinister - however, the long term benefits for US / NATO would be significant (if Putin became a spent force and Russia's forces were exposed as deficient and were used up in a costly war of attrition, without the economy to replenish them.