I respect your reasoning and I fully agree that legally that would be the correct outcome.
However, IF this ever did come about, I remain sceptical that jb will ever be released. Or maybe I am placing too much emphasis on Denning's words!
Let's just pretend that there were a way to negate the moderator evidence in a manner that didn't implicate any misconduct having occurred. The COA would still have to vacate the conviction and put the decision in the hands of the government to decide whether to retry him because there is no way to honestly suggest that the moderator evidence could not have significantly impacted how the jury voted. Only if it could not have had a serious impact on their finding him guilty could the conviction still stand.
The way they deal with the concerns you are thinking about is to require solid proof that negates the moderator instead of just the speculation the defense has engaged in to date. If the defense can meet the high standard required to negate the moderator evidence the COA would vacate the conviction and toss the ball to prosecutors to decide whether they want to retry it or not.