Author Topic: Going down the pan  (Read 16053 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Jackiepreece

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2011, 10:22:PM »
I must think up some more questions for you!


But I'm not sure the jury did have the correct information about the inheritance i hope Mike can help me out

Hartley

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #61 on: March 08, 2011, 10:30:PM »
I must think up some more questions for you!


But I'm not sure the jury did have the correct information about the inheritance i hope Mike can help me out

The Jury were aware of the correct information about inheritance.
In fact the jury specifically asked the question: "If Jeremy Bamber was found guilty and imprisoned for many years, who would be the beneficiaries of the Bamber estate and monies? Could it be his uncle and family?

As proof of this have a look at Ground No. 10 in the 2002 appeal Judgement.

chochokeira

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #62 on: March 08, 2011, 10:40:PM »
Such a good post Robholt

In this country we are forced to be jury members and with that huge weight of responsibility we deserve to be given the full facts of the case. On that evidence a jury makes a decision and sometimes it will be wrong but more often it is the right decision.  There have been too many miscarriages of justice in this country because certain evidence is witheld and in this case I believe there was information available but witheld

Good points and well made, jackiepreece.

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 720
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #63 on: March 08, 2011, 10:51:PM »
No they aren't always prosecuted. Which is a real travesty.
They are usually out of a job, hushed out if you will, and the CPS don't have the will or money to go chasing it all. It ends up being 'not in the public interest to pursue it' etc etc.

Now this is going to be VERY controversial, but:

you're all aware of Mr Ian Brady yes? or Mr Peter Sutcliffe? (I'm sure you are).

Now what if Mr Sutcliffe said, actually it wasn't me and I'd like to prove it. Could you please forward me all the photos of the women please, and any details of the cases? EVERYTHING please?
It's expensive to do that, AND there's a danger he's hmmm how can I put this, getting gratitude from it?

This was one of the problems with Brady and Hindley when Peter Topping requested special dispensation for them to revisit Saddleworth Moor to help the police identify possible body locations. It was a concern that they may actually get a thrill from it. Many of the public strongly objected.

In the end, they did recover one body, never found the other - but you see the problem? When you think someone's innocent letting them have access to everything seems a good thing, but when you think they are guilty it can feel like they are 'taking the system for a ride' (at best) or worse (seeking publicity, seeking to be vexatious, or even getting a kick from it).

Just to get one court case transcript can costs 20 thousand pounds or more (someone has to type it, and verify it, and all the damn overhead costs etc), and there aren't limitless resources to pander to Bamber, or Huntley, or anybody for that matter.

I am NOT saying it's right, just saying that sometimes, full access to all the info isn't as simple as it sounds.

The Guildford Four? it's always gone on, and still does today. Plenty of 'stitch ups' happen.
With regard to the Bamber case, it's entirely possible he was stitched up (imo) but unlikely (imo).

The reasons I think this?

If the evidence presented came only from the Police, it might look like questionable for the Police, esp given their mistakes on the case from the start.

If the evidence came only from the family? the same - the question on motive is impossible to ignore, and it's impossible to ignore that they HAD a motive.

If the evidence came only from Mugford? the same as per the family.

All three colluding together start to become a little less believable (to me personally).

Then we have to look at Jeremy's own actions. Which, in their own right do NOT make a man guilty - so what if he liked to spend reasonably lavishly after the deaths? or chose to 'get away from it all' ?
But he broke and entered into the home after release from the Police under bail with regard to being a suspect for murder. Foolish young man? quite possibly, but nobody colluded to make him do that - THAT was of his own volition.

To 'eagerly' sell artifacts from the house and from Sheila's flat? again, not wrong on their own, but when combined with other evidence, it corroborates rather than goes against what others were claiming.

It's for that reason Jeremy ended up being convicted. Just too many parties involved to make a 'stitch up' sound feasible.

This is a huge problem I'm having here... this notion of 'likelihood' vs 'possibility'.

Here's an example:

I get caught for speeding at 40mph in a 30 zone. I claim I had no idea it was 30 and ask to be let off
The officer shows me a sign saying 30 and I say I must have missed it.
He then points out that there are 4 signs I've gone past, so I explain I must have missed them all
He then says "I've booked you before on this road" ... and I claim oh yes, I remember now, I just forgot.
He then asks where I live and I explain "around the corner"

if you take any one thing, it's believable
if you take ALL of them, it's possible
but
It really is very unlikely.

And just because my defence team pulls out ALL those 'possibles' you can't NOT convict just because there is a theoretical possibility.

For some cases, the jury must work on 'the balance of probability' meaning "quite likely"
For murder, the jury must believe 'beyond all reasonable doubt'. That does NOT mean NO doubt, but beyond all REASONABLE doubt.

The slight doubts that I might have been telling the truth in my speeding incident are not 'reasonable' doubt when summed together.


chochokeira

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #64 on: March 08, 2011, 11:09:PM »

Can I believe a few bent coppers 'helped' the case? yes (not saying they did)
Can I believe Mugford lied? yes
Can I believe the family colluded? at a push, yes but the more involved, the less likely
Can I believe the Judge was fooled by all this (knowing full well the police had cocked up in the first place)? Yes, but unlikely
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees? Not really, I still accept it's possible, but so very unlikely.

How about:

Can I believe a few coppers cocked up really badly?
Can I believe they and their colleagues got deeper into the mire as they tried to cover this up?
Can I believe Mugford might have been flattered, enticed with money and egged on by NoW reporters?
Can I believe they might have enticed her to make wilder and wilder claims about the case?
Can I believe the family's self interest and jealousy guided their statements to the police regarding JB?
Can I believe that judges are mere mortals and as prone to cock up as the rest of us?
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?

Oh, yes.

Offline Reader

  • Veteran Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #65 on: March 08, 2011, 11:17:PM »
The precursor was 'I personally think it's likely".
So? Everybody's thinking is personal - what else could it be?

Every individual, you included as a scale of what they think is believable and what isn't.
I don't understand that - is the word "you" referring to me or to other people in general, and how could you (or anyone) possibly know what every individual thinks?

In my particular case, can buy into ANY of them individually, and buy into a couple of them occurring at the same time coincidentally, or even with confusion.
Which couple? Any couple? Why include the trial judge? It was the jury that decided the case, not the judge. Look back at your post - you gave four "I can believe..." statements, and then a fifth statement that began "Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?" Surely "these things" is referring to the preceding four statements, but you refer to "all 5". What have I missed or are you simply counting incorrectly?

Do I think Jeremy could run 2 miles in 15 minutes across fields? yes. 12 minutes? possibly, 10 minutes? unlikely... it's a sliding scale.
That's fine. Estimating in relation to such physical achievements is quite easy. Estimating the likelihood of the relatives having colluded with Julie is much harder, as there is so little information available about that.

Do you have a problem with me doing what any juror would do and deciding their own level of what's credible or not, . . . ?
Yes, because that's not what jurors should do. They should consider the evidence and each should choose "guilty" if, and only if, they are sure, on the basis of the evidence, that the accused is guilty.

or would you rather set out the facts as they happened?
I don't understand - that doesn't seem to have any bearing on what I wrote.

I do not KNOW what the facts were, I know some of them, and some speculation and some I simply have to base on my own life experience ... it's like erm, how a jury works.
Some what? Facts? Your life experiences can help you form an opinion as to whether Julie lied in court, but your conclusion wouldn't reasonably be called fact. Also, your thinking needs to be explained, as otherwise what you're saying would reduce to "based on my life experiences, and what I've read about the case, I am currently 80% - 90% convinced that Jeremy is guilty". That's saying very little if you don't give a detailed explanation of how you arrived at those figures. Note that if that's the best you could do as a juror in a hypothetical retrial of Jeremy, your vote ought to be "not guilty".
« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 11:31:PM by Reader »

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 720
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #66 on: March 08, 2011, 11:19:PM »

Can I believe a few bent coppers 'helped' the case? yes (not saying they did)
Can I believe Mugford lied? yes
Can I believe the family colluded? at a push, yes but the more involved, the less likely
Can I believe the Judge was fooled by all this (knowing full well the police had cocked up in the first place)? Yes, but unlikely
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees? Not really, I still accept it's possible, but so very unlikely.

How about:

Can I believe a few coppers cocked up really badly?
Can I believe they and their colleagues got deeper into the mire as they tried to cover this up?
Can I believe Mugford might have been flattered, enticed with money and egged on by NoW reporters?
Can I believe they might have enticed her to make wilder and wilder claims about the case?
Can I believe the family's self interest and jealousy guided their statements to the police regarding JB?
Can I believe that judges are mere mortals and as prone to cock up as the rest of us?
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?

Oh, yes.

That was 6 things.
Good job you didn't count the bodies in the kitchen!

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 720
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #67 on: March 08, 2011, 11:30:PM »
so one man killing his family for 300K doesn't work for you
but 4-5 independent parties committing a guy to life does?

As much a rag as the NOTW is (and always was), and of course they paid Mugford, I can't quite think they'd send a guy down for life for a story. They'd gladly pay 25K for an exclusive from Mugford though.

Of course judges make mistakes

By your reckoning, the coppers were bent before they arrived then?
all of them?
even the guy at the control room ? he's in on it too?

nah, sorry.

Missing a body they should have seen I can believe
Covering it up too
agreeing that (in their eyes) it didn't matter - yep
it getting out of hand and too late to own up? yep

The family wanting their hands on the money? yep
having an non family independent witness when they find the silence? hmmm tricky.... guess they 'planted' it before hand eh?

I'm sorry I thought I was a real cynic, but even I can't buy into all 6 events!

I've always said a couple (maybe even three) but not them all!!!

in a way though, you're an optimist too (depends on your point of view) I suppose!

Even if you were right and all 6 happened, and I was JB with you defending me, I'd still have to say "don't argue for all 6, cos even if you're right, I don't think a jury will go for all 6".

Would you? if you were JB? (serious question, not being funny), would you bet the jury would believe all 6 happened rather than your chances of persuading them 2 or 3 did?

Offline Reader

  • Veteran Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #68 on: March 08, 2011, 11:34:PM »
That was 6 things.
Good job you didn't count the bodies in the kitchen!
My count was based on your original list, and posted before I'd seen your revised list.

chochokeira

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #69 on: March 08, 2011, 11:38:PM »

Can I believe a few coppers cocked up really badly?
Can I believe they and their colleagues got deeper into the mire as they tried to cover this up?
Can I believe Mugford might have been flattered, enticed with money and egged on by NoW reporters?
Can I believe they might have enticed her to make wilder and wilder claims about the case?
Can I believe the family's self interest and jealousy guided their statements to the police regarding JB?
Can I believe that judges are mere mortals and as prone to cock up as the rest of us?
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?

Oh, yes.

That was 6 things.
Good job you didn't count the bodies in the kitchen!

It is, isn't it? :O)

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 720
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #70 on: March 09, 2011, 12:02:AM »

Can I believe a few coppers cocked up really badly?
Can I believe they and their colleagues got deeper into the mire as they tried to cover this up?
Can I believe Mugford might have been flattered, enticed with money and egged on by NoW reporters?
Can I believe they might have enticed her to make wilder and wilder claims about the case?
Can I believe the family's self interest and jealousy guided their statements to the police regarding JB?
Can I believe that judges are mere mortals and as prone to cock up as the rest of us?
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?

Oh, yes.

That was 6 things.
Good job you didn't count the bodies in the kitchen!

It is, isn't it? :O)

Not to worry, when you're in a debate, we all lose track of who argued what and number of arguments made.

Just read a very well written article in The Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/past-crimes-the-bamber-files-2046383.html

nicely written and she manages to 'twist' you to and fro in her tale... quite probably expressing the emotions we all have with this case... ebbing and flowing between guilt and innocence or 'unproven'.

I can't speak for all, but I suspect even those of us who perhaps choose to stand at the 70-90% guilty (or innocent) ends of the scale, we still from time get moments when we think "maybe he DID do it" or "maybe he DIDN'T" (you know... that sort of temporary upturn of theories whatever you 'usually' believe in.

She goes on to write about Mugford too, and of how she (the reporter) was inclined to discount her evidence for ulterior motives / axe to grind, and yet, the jury bought it.
What struck me there was (regardless of the 25K payment by news of the world) it was already well known that she'd split with him, and that only after this even did she go to the police. That she was no angel herself, and her courtroom theatrics (if that's what they were) hindered the defence cross examination. All of that known, the jury still chose to believe her? was Jeremy really so unconvincing? arrogant? cocky? that they so readily chose to believe her?
We will never know what each juror thought, but she must have been an actress of some skill!, or Jeremy's confidence in his own innocence, may well have been the very thing that convicted him.

If he hadn't been so wealthy, so well dressed, so handsome, so young... it may well have saved him.

Offline Reader

  • Veteran Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2456
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #71 on: March 09, 2011, 12:12:AM »
Okay then, six "I believe..." statements. Unfortunately, they are related statements, so they needn't stack to the degree implied. The second is strongly suggestive of the first, and the third is suggestive of the fourth. Also, the fifth is quite plausible anyway, and the sixth is irrelevant, as the trial outcome was determined by the jury, not the judge. Or is it the 2002 appeal judges that are now being referred to?

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

  • Senior Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 720
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #72 on: March 09, 2011, 12:30:AM »
Okay then, six "I believe..." statements. Unfortunately, they are related statements, so they needn't stack to the degree implied. The second is strongly suggestive of the first, and the third is suggestive of the fourth. Also, the fifth is quite plausible anyway, and the sixth is irrelevant, as the trial outcome was determined by the jury, not the judge. Or is it the 2002 appeal judges that are now being referred to?

I do believe as crazy as it sounds, the Judge still has the final say even with a Jury (hardly ever acted upon of course).

My '5 things' are different than choco's but of a similar vein, but yes some are almost a consequence of others (a couple of mistakes by a few coppers leads to hiding the mistakes by a few more coppers).
But mistakes by coppers causing Mugford's lies are harder to argue.

Now, you make a decent case that these things influenced each other....

So let's say the family pester the police about JB being guilty, so mugford sees her chance and decides to invent her story (not in collusion with the family, but is smart enough to know that adding to it will really put the cat amongst the pigeons).

I wonder if Mugford would really realise the consequences of him being convicted? Probably not that it would be TRUE whole of life. But she might have though 15 years, out in 10, and that was 'ok' for him betraying her, and a nice 25K in her pocket (which was a fair amount of money then).

As for Ann and David and silencer - how did they get the witness (the accountant) to collude with them? OR did they plant the silencer the night before? or even whip it out of his pocket and say "oh look what I've found?"

I find the whole business of taking it home very odd! - I think I would be taking it to the police station... whatever time of day or night it was.

chochokeira

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #73 on: March 09, 2011, 12:33:AM »
so one man killing his family for 300K doesn't work for you.

Precisely where do you claim I either stated or implied that? Of course someone might kill for 300K, people have been killed for far less than that. Criticise my views by all means, TBM, be my guest, but on the basis of the views I've actually expressed, not with a straw man account of your own making.

Quote
but 4-5 independent parties committing a guy to life does?

Didn't say that either, I said jealousy and self interest - and I accept that this is a crass over-simplification of a complex of factors.

Quote
As much a rag as the NOTW is (and always was), and of course they paid Mugford, I can't quite think they'd send a guy down for life for a story. They'd gladly pay 25K for an exclusive from Mugford though.

I don't believe they'd knowingly send someone down for a story either. But the fact remains that some elements of the press were paying huge sums for sensationalised accounts which were judged to have tipped the balance in some cases. Here's a piece from the Independent regarding this:

"Lord Wakeham's concern reflects mounting worry in legal and political circles about the press's conduct in criminal trials. Mark Stephens, solicitor for the Taylor sisters, whose convictions for murder were quashed last year after prejudicial reporting of their trial, said paying witnesses could jeopardise criminal cases.
"It was an issue in the OJ [Simpson] case. People who think they may be able to sell their story ... may enhance or add to their accounts. So the risk is outright lies or embellishment," Mr Stephens said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/newspapers-paid-west-witnesses-1581685.html

Which part of Lord Wakeham's concerns do you believe are groundless - and why?

Quote
By your reckoning, the coppers were bent before they arrived then? all of them? even the guy at the control room ? he's in on it too?

Nope, just human: most of us cover up our failings. But sometimes it can get out of hand.

Quote
would you bet the jury would believe all 6 happened rather than your chances of persuading them 2 or 3 did?

In the days when I represented clients at tribunals I would have focussed on the strongest aspects of the case.





chochokeira

  • Guest
Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #74 on: March 09, 2011, 12:41:AM »

Can I believe a few coppers cocked up really badly?
Can I believe they and their colleagues got deeper into the mire as they tried to cover this up?
Can I believe Mugford might have been flattered, enticed with money and egged on by NoW reporters?
Can I believe they might have enticed her to make wilder and wilder claims about the case?
Can I believe the family's self interest and jealousy guided their statements to the police regarding JB?
Can I believe that judges are mere mortals and as prone to cock up as the rest of us?
Can I believe all 5 of these things happened to varying degrees?

Oh, yes.

That was 6 things.
Good job you didn't count the bodies in the kitchen!

It is, isn't it? :O)

Not to worry, when you're in a debate, we all lose track of who argued what and number of arguments made.

Just read a very well written article in The Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/past-crimes-the-bamber-files-2046383.html

nicely written and she manages to 'twist' you to and fro in her tale... quite probably expressing the emotions we all have with this case... ebbing and flowing between guilt and innocence or 'unproven'.

I can't speak for all, but I suspect even those of us who perhaps choose to stand at the 70-90% guilty (or innocent) ends of the scale, we still from time get moments when we think "maybe he DID do it" or "maybe he DIDN'T" (you know... that sort of temporary upturn of theories whatever you 'usually' believe in.

She goes on to write about Mugford too, and of how she (the reporter) was inclined to discount her evidence for ulterior motives / axe to grind, and yet, the jury bought it.
What struck me there was (regardless of the 25K payment by news of the world) it was already well known that she'd split with him, and that only after this even did she go to the police. That she was no angel herself, and her courtroom theatrics (if that's what they were) hindered the defence cross examination. All of that known, the jury still chose to believe her? was Jeremy really so unconvincing? arrogant? cocky? that they so readily chose to believe her?
We will never know what each juror thought, but she must have been an actress of some skill!, or Jeremy's confidence in his own innocence, may well have been the very thing that convicted him.

If he hadn't been so wealthy, so well dressed, so handsome, so young... it may well have saved him.

Good post! + 1