Author Topic: Going down the pan  (Read 16049 times)

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Offline bob

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Going down the pan
« on: March 07, 2011, 11:52:PM »
This forum used to be a decent place for considered evaluation of the evidence and reasoned debate.

Recently there seems to have been an influx of posters who aren't interested in analysing specific pieces of evidence - instead they simply post from a point of view of "knowing" that JB is innocent.

I don't see what value that adds - surely the point of a forum is to analyse and debate the evidence in a non-partisan way? Otherwise we may as well ditch it and just all click "like" on the Facebook group.

We have lost at least 4 respected posters in the past 2 weeks, who've each "resigned" with comments suggesting that they don't think there is any point in them continuing because the level of considered debate has deteriorated.

I, for one, am missing those posters  :(

Offline bob

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2011, 12:20:AM »
Can only comment as a newbie. The JB guilty poll shows that there are varying standpoints and approaches of posters.  At times, it seems to me that much of the 'neutral' debating is actually coming from the perspective of people who believe in his guilt (and some state so).  On a site like this, is it not always going to be swings and roundabouts / to and fro in the balance etc?

Appreciate your response RDP.

I think my comment comes from my perception that there are now a few posters with a very clear agenda, and that they have saturated the forum such that it is now difficult to participate in a reasoned debate on specific points of evidence without each topic being hijacked into a more general "JB is innocent" theme.

I could be wrong, but I feel it's a shame that a few old-time (and interesting) regular posters have recently decided they've had enough  :(

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2011, 12:58:AM »
I'm usually hovering at the 70-90% JB guilty area. It really does change.

The logical part of me says the majority of evidence points to him, but there's another part that says sometimes, you CAN toss 'heads' 10 times in a row, however unlikely.
There are a few inconsistencies in police testimonies that worry me, BUT I also accept people make all manner of incorrect 'witness' statements (e.g. wrong times, wrong names etc etc). You'd be amazed at how inaccurate observation and memory can be, even in those trained to be observant.

There are also enough questions about 'what the heck really happened, even if JB DID do it' that make me want to learn more.

For me personally, I don't tend to see stuff the way Mike Tesko does. But, one in five times I'm inclined to go along with his thinking (which isn't much, but it's still one in five).

I do not think I am biased (but I accept that I could well be) against JB. And I like to think I'm open minded enough to believe Sheila could have done it (which I do believe she could).

I don't have all the facts the jury did but, if I was on the jury, I think I'd be saying this:

"Right, you've convinced me that Jeremy was the more likely culprit, but you need to take me a little further down that path before I'm going to find him guilty. My head tells me it's him, and you have some strong evidence, but you're just falling short of the finish line.... "

That's my honest opinion (so far) and it's been that for 25 years, swaying in that 70-90% region

Elizabeth

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2011, 01:12:AM »
Can only comment as a newbie. The JB guilty poll shows that there are varying standpoints and approaches of posters.  At times, it seems to me that much of the 'neutral' debating is actually coming from the perspective of people who believe in his guilt (and some state so).  On a site like this, is it not always going to be swings and roundabouts / to and fro in the balance etc?

Appreciate your response RDP.

I think my comment comes from my perception that there are now a few posters with a very clear agenda, and that they have saturated the forum such that it is now difficult to participate in a reasoned debate on specific points of evidence without each topic being hijacked into a more general "JB is innocent" theme.

I could be wrong, but I feel it's a shame that a few old-time (and interesting) regular posters have recently decided they've had enough  :(

A few posters with a very clear agenda? And what might that be? To suggest that they have saturated the forum, to the point where it is now difficult to participate in a reasoned debate, i think is very unfair. Not to mention wholly exaggerated. Also i don't see anybody "hijacking" each topic into a JB is innocent theme at all. I assume those that believe in Jeremy's innocence, do so with good reason, and they are perfectly entitled to their opinion/and or belief.

« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 01:14:AM by Elizabeth »

Hartley

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2011, 01:25:AM »
With the facts and evidence available I find it incredible that anyone can be 100% certain of his guilt or innocence.
When I question a theory which is incorrectly stated as fact then it's viewed as anti Bamber, so there's little point in getting into a conflict over it.

I see three distinct groups, those who have made their mind up and refuse to accept anything in opposition to their point of view no matter what; those who have a fairly clear opinion but are willing to listen to other peoples views; and those who are on the fence.

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2011, 01:30:AM »
Can only comment as a newbie. The JB guilty poll shows that there are varying standpoints and approaches of posters.  At times, it seems to me that much of the 'neutral' debating is actually coming from the perspective of people who believe in his guilt (and some state so).  On a site like this, is it not always going to be swings and roundabouts / to and fro in the balance etc?

Appreciate your response RDP.

I think my comment comes from my perception that there are now a few posters with a very clear agenda, and that they have saturated the forum such that it is now difficult to participate in a reasoned debate on specific points of evidence without each topic being hijacked into a more general "JB is innocent" theme.

I could be wrong, but I feel it's a shame that a few old-time (and interesting) regular posters have recently decided they've had enough  :(

A few posters with a very clear agenda? And what might that be? To suggest that they have saturated the forum, to the point where it is now difficult to participate in a reasoned debate, i think is very unfair. Not to mention wholly exaggerated. Also i don't see anybody "hijacking" each topic into a JB is innocent theme at all. I assume those that believe in Jeremy's innocence, do so with good reason, and they are perfectly entitled to their opinion/and or belief.


The problem here is:

IF you believe JB's innocent and that for whatever reason, a handful of folks conspired to stitch him up (or at least 'add' to evidence in order to secure a conviction which they believed was right), then by that very reasoning, getting evidence to show that is going to be hard, and often it will look like clutching at straws (because you're fighting with one hand tied behind your back).

IF you think JB's guilty, then there's a fair bit of supporting evidence for that (as there WOULD be if a) he WAS guilty, or b) he WAS framed). AND there's always the argument that a jury heard more than we have and they found him guilty too. So basically, you have a big mallet to hit the other side with.

Effectively, the JB innocent team are going to be the underdogs, regardless of fairness.

I 'think' a lot of people on here are still not 100% sure either way, and the reasonable ones of us *blush* DO appreciate that that 'team innocent' are underdogs.

But, we aren't going to just give points to them just because they are underdogs. They just have to score twice as many points as team guilty... it's not our fault that team guilty have been given a 3 goal lead to start with!
« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 01:32:AM by TheBrilliantMistake »

Hartley

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2011, 01:44:AM »
There is also a big difference between those who are questioning and discussing the case, and those who are simply trying to force persuade people to seeing things their way.

Offline robholt

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2011, 03:25:AM »
As I have posted on this forum previously, there are also people on here who don’t enter into the He’s Guilty / Not Guilty argument. Irrespective of one’s own opinion of his guilt, and given the absence of any solid evidence either way, it will remain only an opinion.

The wider issue, for me at least, is that the whole handling of the case and evidence on which JB was found guilty is unsound and would certainly not convict him in a courtroom today, and that is a FACT.

chochokeira

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2011, 07:44:AM »
On the basis of the evidence presented to this forum I find it impossible to reach a conclusion one way or the other about who killed the Bamber family 25 years ago.

Travel back down the years and put in front of the original trial judge and jury all of the evidence that has been so painfully extracted from the puzzlingly defensive and un-cooperative Essex Police during the past 25 years and I believe it likely that they also would be unable to reach a firm conclusion - without a shadow of doubt - about who committed these murders. There are far too many grounds for doubt, far too many shadows. I therefore believe that a judge and jury, with all of the evidence we have here, in front of them would not find sufficient evidence to convict JB or anyone else of these murders.

For me, there is one indisputable fact: too much evidence was withheld from the original trial judge and jury or distorted in its presentation for any court to reach a just and safe decision in this case. It is therefore indisputable that Jeremy Bamber did not have a fair trial and justice consequently demands a retrial or an Appeal on the basis of ALL of the evidence, not merely the evidence that Essex Police are willing to divulge.

One of the foundation stones of the British criminal justice system is that those accused are innocent until proven guilty. I have not a shadow of doubt that the prosecution failed to prove Jeremy Bamber's guilt on the basis of a fair trial and in the light of all of the evidence in this case. It is therefore my view that Jeremy Bamber is innocent.

Offline Kaldin

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2011, 08:19:AM »
With the facts and evidence available I find it incredible that anyone can be 100% certain of his guilt or innocence.
When I question a theory which is incorrectly stated as fact then it's viewed as anti Bamber, so there's little point in getting into a conflict over it.

I see three distinct groups, those who have made their mind up and refuse to accept anything in opposition to their point of view no matter what; those who have a fairly clear opinion but are willing to listen to other peoples views; and those who are on the fence.

Didn't you leave and then come back? I remember you were deleted at one point - or am I confused about that?

Re the forum in general, I have seen a few people say that Jeremy is innocent but most people here don't seem to be blindly accepting all the weird theories without question. I'm still in the same place as when I started posting here - 50/50. ;D

Offline Kaldin

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2011, 08:52:AM »
As I have posted on this forum previously, there are also people on here who don’t enter into the He’s Guilty / Not Guilty argument. Irrespective of one’s own opinion of his guilt, and given the absence of any solid evidence either way, it will remain only an opinion.

The wider issue, for me at least, is that the whole handling of the case and evidence on which JB was found guilty is unsound and would certainly not convict him in a courtroom today, and that is a FACT.

I wonder if he would have been acquitted today. With DNA testing the outcome might have been very different, but even so, the experts at the 2002 appeal couldn't seem to agree about the DNA, and the appeal judges didn't consider that the DNA evidence made the verdict unsafe.

There was the issue of the silencer being in the cupboard too. I think that those who believe Jeremy did it are a bit blinkered about that. I think Sheila could have shot them all and put the silencer away, but the prosecution seemed to think that was out of the question.

There's also the issue of Sheila being relatively unmarked and showing no signs of having rampaged through the house shooting people. That could be enough to swing a jury.

Offline Kaldin

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2011, 10:27:AM »
Some very interesting views on here.  It's very easy for a newbie on a forum to to go in hammer and tongs, which might annoy regular posters.  If I've been guilty of that (I prob have been a bit sarky on a couple of posts!) then I apologise for any annoyance this has caused.  Bob may be right and the forum may have lost something with the disappearance of previous regulars.  From my part i think this is an excellent forum.  It's engrossing to watch other posters go hammer and tongs arguing the case.  This makes for excellent reading at times.  I will take on board the opinions of some posters on here that you should attempt to study / argue potential 'evidence' from opposing angles.

my current posistion is that I have one foot in 'probably not guilty' and one foot in 'undecided'!  8)

It is a good forum. I get slightly irritated at some of the posts, but I expect some people get irritated with mine too.  ;D

I'm amazed that it's as polite as it is actually - no spammers, trolls, or trouble makers so far - apart from some rather dodgy posts from a previous member that is.  :P

Offline TheBrilliantMistake

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2011, 12:56:PM »
regarding the question of "would he be acquitted today?"

It is my belief he would not -  and here is why:

1) The evidence presented in court originally, has, to the best of my knowledge remained intact (in terms of fact/findings, rather than physical state!)

2) Subsequent DNA testing on the moderator has shed some new light on the likely source of DNA found, but does has not been able to discount it being a murder weapon. It has only served to suggest the origin of DNA found was likely to be June Bamber.

3) Arguably THE most crucial piece of evidence was the testimony of Julie Mugford, and, rightly or wrongly, the original jury found her to be a credible witness, since they accepted her testimony as being true.

Given the gravity of the evidence provided by Miss Mugford (as was then), there has since been no reason to raise doubt, or form a new opinion on the credibility of her, or the validity of her testimony.
Essentially, the decision of the jury then was sound, and remains so. One cannot simply 'change their minds' about Miss Mugford at a whim.

Now, with regard to new evidence coming to light, much of it has been of a nature that to put it mildly, is tenuous at best, and at worst, bordering on being vexatious.
There are numerous cases of where "one witness said this, and another said that". This does not amount to a conspiracy to conceal or falsify evidence. It is a typical of a case of this nature to have contradiction in witness testimony, or occasional mistakes in logs and suchlike, regrettable as that may be, this too does not amount to, or even indicate conspiracy.

All in all, no new evidence has come forward that substantially deviates from the evidence provided at trial. Whilst we might have a little more clarity here and there, the same material circumstances and likely scenarios presented at the original trial remain the same.

Therefore. The same verdict would must likely be reached.



What the 'JB innocent team' would prefer though, is to omit much of the agreed testimony, and focus on the testimonies that differ, this giving rise to the impression that nobody agreed, and the whole investigation was chaos, or family, girlfriend, police et al conspired, or acted apart to 'frame' Jeremy Bamber. That the remaining members of the family planted evidence or garnished it, his girlfriend allowed her anger to go so far as to see a man imprisoned for life and deny family members the truth, and that the police themselves manipulated a crime scene in such a was as to not only hide their already accepted mistakes, but to lend weight to a murder theory, which was counter to their own belief of suicide).

If we are to believe the Police wanted to make certain it looked like suicide then this ONLY helps to suggest it would have looked even more like murder without their actions.
If we are to believe the Police wanted to make it look like murder, then this would be contrary to all other actions they undertook (or didn't undertake) in their woeful gathering of evidence - which was born out of belief it was a suicide.


Not enough new evidence to change much, just a lot of minor evidence which when dished out in sufficient volume tries to amount to being 'significant'.


chelmsey

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2011, 03:25:PM »
It seems to me to have been perfectly plausible that sheila could have been responsible.After-all, highly experienced police officers certainly seemed to accept this based on what they saw and what information they had at the time.Until that is,that the relatives made a big song and dance about it!The relatives (despite not knowing sheila all that well) were absolutely adamant that shela did not carry out the murders.Why was this I wonder?Could they have known something that we dont? JB has been portrayed as money hungry and as having a dislike for his family.But similarly,the relatives were also money hungry and had a dislike for the Bambers.Lets not forget that JB would have inherited a large amount of money eventually anyway.Lets face it,his parents were no "spring chickens".both being the age of 61.Is it not true that Ralph was beginning to pass on more responsibility to JB, and (just an observation) Ralph may have been beginning to make preparations for retirement.Just reading RBs notes alone tell their own story as to what RB felt about JBs handling of the farm and of the Bamber money.If the murders had not took place,Id been interested to know what the relatives would have been due to receive from the Bambers will upon their natural deaths.

chelmsey

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Re: Going down the pan
« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2011, 04:14:PM »
Oh and please do not think that I am making accusations towards anyone.The "third person",could be responsible scenario is just something that I am considering right now.So if I ask questions that have already been covered by you all,please accept my apologies.Its just that there is so much information on this site that it gives me a headache trying to wade through it all!
Whilst Im here.......does anyone have an explanation as to why (if RB and AE were pointing the finger toward JB from day one),why AE would be inside the farmhouse "having a good old clean up)almost from day one? On the one hand they were hunting around for evidence,but on the other hand they were cleaning it all away!The police search did not uncover the silencer,the relatives did.It is wholly possible that the silencer was "planted". It is possible that the phonecall to JB (if it did actually happen)was made under duress to in order to lure JB to the farm and a second phonecall to the police from the farm in order for the police to find JB at the scene and maybe suspect him.