Jeremy Bamber Forum

OFF TOPIC => Off Topic => Topic started by: David1819 on August 30, 2020, 02:35:PM

Title: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on August 30, 2020, 02:35:PM
Will Trump be the 1st one term president since George Bush Senior?
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on August 30, 2020, 03:41:PM
Biden will be fine as President.

Providing all he has to do is read two speeches a day from an autocue. Having his afternoon nap between each speech.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on August 30, 2020, 04:14:PM
Biden will be fine as President.

Providing all he has to do is read two speeches a day from an autocue. Having his afternoon nap between each speech.

He does seem a bit senile.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on August 30, 2020, 04:44:PM
To an outsider, Biden seems like a 3rd thumb. I can see Trump savaging him. What a choice eh. Wasn't Jimmy Carter also omly one term?
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on August 30, 2020, 05:14:PM
To an outsider, Biden seems like a 3rd thumb. I can see Trump savaging him. What a choice eh. Wasn't Jimmy Carter also omly one term?

Biden will find the debates hard.

Yeah Carter was one term.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on September 01, 2020, 09:49:PM
Will Trump be the 1st one term president since George Bush Senior?
I wouldn't write him off just yet..https://youtu.be/SHu1gBQIUFc
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on September 02, 2020, 12:47:PM
Oh dear, haven't they got anyone else ?  :)) :)) :)) :))
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 02, 2020, 02:00:PM
Oh dear, haven't they got anyone else ?  :)) :)) :)) :))

Bernie Sanders was a good democratic candidate. I'm not sure why they didn't select him.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on September 02, 2020, 02:41:PM
Bernie Sanders was a good democratic candidate. I'm not sure why they didn't select him.

Because like Corbyn, he's not allowed to get in to a position of leading national governance.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 02, 2020, 03:25:PM
Because like Corbyn, he's not allowed to get in to a position of leading national governance.

Corbyn ran for office twice.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on September 02, 2020, 05:54:PM
Bernie Sanders was a good democratic candidate. I'm not sure why they didn't select him.
He was too left-wing for America. https://youtu.be/Z7s-QGtnnSg
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 02, 2020, 06:03:PM
He was too left-wing for America. https://youtu.be/Z7s-QGtnnSg

Yes, but at least he isn’t going senial.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on September 02, 2020, 06:10:PM
Yes, but at least he isn’t going senial.
Don't you mean senile? People turned against Sanders after he made all that money from his book.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on September 10, 2020, 05:34:PM
 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on September 10, 2020, 06:47:PM
Trump did a lot of good things for the US. Tax cuts, deregulation, big trade deals. Thought he was on a wind up when saying he was going to build a wall, but he has made a start on it.

The economy & stock market was breaking records until the Pandemic. The stock market making a good recovery.

People say Trump didn't handle the pandemic well. But don't say what they would have done differently. He did ban travel into America early on. 
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on September 10, 2020, 06:58:PM
There is not much enthusiasim for Biden. People may vote for him just because they don't like Trump.

He's been around a long time & failed in previous presidential bids. He eventually had 8 years in the white house as VP. Was a decent VP from 2008-2016 & should have then enjoyed his retirement.

Has aged a lot over the last 4 years & seems to be a rabbitt in the headlights. Not believing he could actually end up as the most powerful man in the world, while simultaneously enjoying being in the limelight in his twilight years.

Said himself he will be a caretaker President, but caretakers step in when there is an unexpected vacancy. Caretaker football managers usually last two weeks.

Not even sure he will last 4 years, may step down after 6-18  months to give Harris a chance before the next election.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on September 10, 2020, 07:08:PM
Trump is at least high energy & mentally alert.

Being President is relentless. Bill Clinton said when they see a President make a speach, they think that's all he's doing for the day. However there are constant high pressure things going on behind closed doors.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 10, 2020, 07:10:PM
Trump did a lot of good things for the US. Tax cuts, deregulation, big trade deals. Thought he was on a wind up when saying he was going to build a wall, but he has made a start on it.

The economy & stock market was breaking records until the Pandemic. The stock market making a good recovery.

People say Trump didn't handle the pandemic well. But don't say what they would have done differently. He did ban travel into America early on.

The wall is actually more of a fence. But it’s better than nothing. It should have been built decades ago if you ask me. The amount of heroin and meth smuggled in by the Mexican cartels and the amount of guns they smuggle out on the way back is probably astronomical.

(https://immigrationimpact.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/11967692434_ea0167d3b8_h.jpg)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on September 10, 2020, 07:22:PM
The wall is actually more of a fence. But it’s better than nothing. It should have been built decades ago if you ask me. The amount of heroin and meth smuggled in by the Mexican cartels and the amount of guns they smuggle out on the way back is probably astronomical.

(https://immigrationimpact.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/11967692434_ea0167d3b8_h.jpg)

Is that the new wall?

Bits of walls were built during previous administrations. But not very successfully.

Now it's underway, they might as well complete it. As once built it should last decades. Biden says he will stop work on it instantly if President.

It's not perfect although they have mentioned the wall also has some technology such as cameras which may make a difference.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on September 10, 2020, 07:32:PM
I'm surprised it isn't electrified.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 10, 2020, 10:20:PM
Is that the new wall?

Bits of walls were built during previous administrations. But not very successfully.

Now it's underway, they might as well complete it. As once built it should last decades. Biden says he will stop work on it instantly if President.

It's not perfect although they have mentioned the wall also has some technology such as cameras which may make a difference.

Yes.

(https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/newscms/2019_38/3016151/190918-donald-trump-border-wall-ew-653p_fa13466892eac0c59f7212deed93e59e.jpg)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on September 11, 2020, 08:08:AM
Ace Frehley has given his support to Trump.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on September 26, 2020, 07:19:PM
I thought this might crop up again: the issue of whether the electoral college can survive in a country where the demography is gradually changing. https://youtu.be/flHBp1G7iLc
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on September 30, 2020, 04:49:PM
Oh dear..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHnqaDZ2KLk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHnqaDZ2KLk)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on September 30, 2020, 09:26:PM
The full debate: https://youtu.be/ofkPfm3tFxo
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on October 23, 2020, 07:01:PM
The final debate: https://youtu.be/nY2AXIx-GU4
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on October 26, 2020, 11:04:PM
Biden definitely has dementia.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8878991/amp/Joe-Biden-appears-confuse-Trump-Bush-calls-president-George-virtual-rally.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8878991/amp/Joe-Biden-appears-confuse-Trump-Bush-calls-president-George-virtual-rally.html)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on October 29, 2020, 12:37:PM
The Electoral College explained briefly. The Republicans colour is red, the Democrats in blue: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/us-election-how-does-the-electoral-college-work/vi-BB1auzCJ?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on October 29, 2020, 05:15:PM
The Stock Market is starting to wobble. On the belief Sleepy Joe might win. He has made no secret he does not care about the stock market & criticised Trump for basing his success on the markets. Sleepy Joe will not consider the markets when making decisions.

Trump should base his success partly on the markets. It affects millions of people directly or indirectly. A good economy usually means good markets.

What will Joe base his success on. An extra 20 people at a rally?
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on October 29, 2020, 05:58:PM
The Stock Market is starting to wobble. On the belief Sleepy Joe might win. He has made no secret he does not care about the stock market & criticised Trump for basing his success on the markets. Sleepy Joe will not consider the markets when making decisions.

Trump should base his success partly on the markets. It affects millions of people directly or indirectly. A good economy usually means good markets.

What will Joe base his success on. An extra 20 people at a rally?
I do think Covid-19 has made many Americans re-evaluate their current situation, especially those in danger of losing their healthcare.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on October 29, 2020, 06:23:PM
I do think Covid-19 has made many Americans re-evaluate their current situation, especially those in danger of losing their healthcare.

Trump was on course to win prior to Covid19. Everyone automatically said he didn't handle it well. But then don't say what they would have done differently.

Trump is lucky he is not against another Obama or even a George Bush. So may still win or have a close enough defeat he can make a big fuss about.

Biden is probably fit for his age. But there is no way he can do intense 18 hours days 7 days a week. Eighteen hour months maybe. There is a reason why there is a retirement age.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on October 31, 2020, 12:12:AM
A good programme here on current politics, with the US election discussed from 47:20. https://youtu.be/GoaPJkA9GmE
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on October 31, 2020, 01:02:PM
I've followed this guy before and he's usually accurate. However nobody knows the extent of the hidden vote for Trump, similar to the UK election of 1992: https://youtu.be/iP82GbYdK08
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 05, 2020, 06:37:AM
It looks like Biden has it in the bag: at the time of writing he has 264 electoral votes and just needs the 6 from Nevada to pass the winning post of 270. To give Trump his due he did catch a public mood in 2016 that mainstream politicians were self-serving and disconnected from ordinary Americans, but suffered from the economic crash Covid-19 brought in its wake: 32% of Wisconsin's economy wiped out, Michigan remembered Biden's bailout of General Motors and flipped the state back to the Democrats. The increase in mail ballots also favoured Biden along with his connection to Obamacare. But it's clear that Trump's presidential style also alienated some white middle-class voters, who returned to the Obama fold. https://www.foxnews.com/
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 05, 2020, 08:44:AM
It looks like Biden is going to win. It all hangs on Nevada were Biden is leading by 8000 votes.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 05, 2020, 06:47:PM
A little more detail on the contest as things stand: https://youtu.be/yY61es0Vj_Y
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 05, 2020, 07:45:PM
https://youtu.be/NuIjn6EEIV8

Trump likes to be seen as a human dynamo. He does seem very energetic. He will refuse to accept a doddery old man like Biden has beaten him.

Most of what Trump has done will now be reversed. Until the next election at least.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 05, 2020, 07:53:PM
Doubt that many people are excited by Biden.

Voters were either hardcore Democrats who will always vote for the candidate, or people who haven't taken to Trump's style. Although he did get over 3 million more votes than last time.

Presidential elections are often close, Biden had the advantage of Covid19. Some voters wanted Trump as a scapegoat & Biden could just repeatedly say Trump handled it badly.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 05, 2020, 08:12:PM
Doubt that many people are excited by Biden.

Voters were either hardcore Democrats who will always vote for the candidate, or people who haven't taken to Trump's style. Although he did get over 3 million more votes than last time.

Presidential elections are often close, Biden had the advantage of Covid19. Some voters wanted Trump as a scapegoat & Biden could just repeatedly say Trump handled it badly.
He's past his sell-by date, but then so am I. Didn't he once plagiarize part of a speech of Neil Kinnock's? I'm also unhappy about the son's contract in Ukraine. I suppose crony capitalism works both ways.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 05, 2020, 08:48:PM
He's past his sell-by date, but then so am I. Didn't he once plagiarize part of a speech of Neil Kinnock's? I'm also unhappy about the son's contract in Ukraine. I suppose crony capitalism works both ways.

Believe there was excitement over Bill Clinton, Obama & Reagan, although he was old.

Biden's Chief of Staff and advisors will make policy. Biden will sign documents,  make occasional speeches & agree to soft interviews.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 05, 2020, 08:55:PM
There are rumors Trump will start his own TrumpTV station. He will certainly constantly be criticising Biden over the next 4 years.

He may apply for the presidency again in 4 years. He has a lot of support & may still be the Republican's best bet. Mike Pence may make a bid as well. 
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 06, 2020, 06:49:AM
Trump alleges voter fraud: https://youtu.be/6moQNj3JaCA

A look at mail-in ballots: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/mail-in-ballot-tracker-us-election-2020
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 06, 2020, 07:01:AM
Biden says he will replace the wall with 'high tech capacity'. Whatever that means & whatever that costs. Talk about leaving a job half done.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 06, 2020, 07:38:AM
Biden says he will replace the wall with 'high tech capacity'. Whatever that means & whatever that costs. Talk about leaving a job half done.
It will be interesting to see how the Democrats press ahead with the immigration issue. If they get control of the Senate they will probably legalize all undocumented immigrants, estimated at over 10 million. They're also going to expand Obamacare, which whilst well-intentioned, will increase healthcare costs for the average American.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 06, 2020, 07:46:AM
Trump alleges voter fraud: https://youtu.be/6moQNj3JaCA

A look at mail-in ballots: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/mail-in-ballot-tracker-us-election-2020

It is suspicious how Trump had huge leads on some of the remaining Democrat states, which have gone down dramatically in the last 24 hours. Other states such as Florida Trump built up big leads & kept them resulting in early victories.

If the states are counting mail ballots last, it would mean 90% of these voters are Biden supporters. Which sounds unlikely. If there is no order of how the votes are being counted, there is no way 90% of these would suddenly become Biden votes.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 06, 2020, 09:35:AM
This election has had more votes than any previous election.

Trump's supporters are very hard core. So would vote again. He picked up extra supporters over his 4 year tenure. Probably due to the economy & keeping most of his promises.

Having so many people voting for Biden is a surprise. He can barely read from an autocue. Maybe the prospect of Kamala Harris taking over soon appeals to people.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 06, 2020, 11:02:AM
Biden is now leading in Georgia by about 1000 votes with 99% of the votes counted. If he wins either Georgia or Nevada he wins the election.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 06, 2020, 11:17:AM
Seems that 85% of Trump fans vote on the day, while 85% of Biden fans vote by post. Surprisingly big difference.

Wonder why the big states such as Texas & Florida finished counting days ago. While others are still counting.

Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 06, 2020, 11:37:AM
.
Wonder why the big states such as Texas & Florida finished counting days ago. While others are still counting.

Most of the time they don’t need to count all the votes to declare a winner when it becomes mathematically impossible for any alternative outcome. If candidate A has 60% and candidate B has 40% while 9% of votes still uncounted it’s not possible for B to win. Nevada and Georgia are on a knifes edge.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 06, 2020, 01:09:PM
I have lost all respect for Trump now. He is being a sore loser and wont leave office in a dignified and stately manner. I wonder how far he will go? If he does not capitulate, we could see the army forcefully escort him out the white house.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on November 06, 2020, 01:40:PM
I have lost all respect for Trump now. He is being a sore loser and wont leave office in a dignified and stately manner. I wonder how far he will go? If does not capitulate wee could see the army forcefully escort him out the white house.

Have you seen that video purporting to show ballot paper fraud being filmed? Someone sent it to me on FB today.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=134991561699233&id=100055651699297
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 06, 2020, 02:52:PM
Have you seen that video purporting to show ballot paper fraud being filmed? Someone sent it to me on FB today.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=134991561699233&id=100055651699297

There is no way the commentator in that video can know what they are doing, you cant see the text.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 06, 2020, 05:49:PM
It looks like Biden is going to win all these late-counting states save possibly North Carolina, which would take his tally to 306 electoral votes, way past the 270 needed. Trump should concede gracefully sooner rather than later and blame Covid-19 if he needs to, rather than any defect voters may have perceived in his personality over the last four years. It may be true that there has been marginal fraud, and individual voters should have had to request a ballot paper in my opinion rather than states sending them out unilaterally. https://www.foxnews.com/
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on November 06, 2020, 10:35:PM
There is no way the commentator in that video can know what they are doing, you cant see the text.

So how do you explain this?

Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 03:36:AM
Trump should spend his final couple of months trying to get through as much legislation as possible. While simultaneously bigging up his Presidency,  listing his achievements & warning what will happen if Biden reverses his policies.

Out of office there will be plenty of media outlets where he can criticise Biden's presidency whenever anything goes wrong. Claiming it wouldn't have happened under him.

He can later make a decision on whether to run again for 2024.

All sour grapes but better than saying the election results are wrong.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 07, 2020, 03:47:AM
Trump should spend his final couple of months trying to get through as much legislation as possible. While simultaneously bigging up his Presidency,  listing his achievements & warning what will happen if Biden reverses his policies.

Out of office there will be plenty of media outlets where he can criticise Biden's presidency whenever anything goes wrong. Claiming it wouldn't have happened under him.

He can later make a decision on whether to run again for 2024.

All sour grapes but better than saying the election results are wrong.

It’s very possible Trump could end up in prison. While president he has been immune from his tax evasion, and obstruction of justice charges. Come January 20th, he will no longer be immune.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 07, 2020, 03:49:AM
So how do you explain this?


That’s a photo of a fedex truck driver with Hilary Clinton’s face photoshopped on it.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on November 07, 2020, 08:36:AM

That’s a photo of a fedex truck driver with Hilary Clinton’s face photoshopped on it.

Yeah, OK David. So you're saying it's not Hiliary caught bang to rights committing election fraud? She's even smiling about it.  I'd like to see her explain this in The Supreme Court.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 10:32:AM
Yeah, OK David. So you're saying it's not Hiliary caught bang to rights committing election fraud? She's even smiling about it.  I'd like to see her explain this in The Supreme Court.

Come to think of it Barrack & Michelle have been very quiet, while Nancy Pelosi only resurfaced after Biden's victory was secure. Al Gore doesn't like Trump after Trump pulled out of the 'Green New Deal'. Where's his ex Ivana been the last 3 days?

Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 12:46:PM
Come to think of it Barrack & Michelle have been very quiet, while Nancy Pelosi only resurfaced after Biden's victory was secure. Al Gore doesn't like Trump after Trump pulled out of the 'Green New Deal'. Where's his ex Ivana been the last 3 days?
It's well-known that Michelle favoured Joe for the Presidency in 2016, but Barrack chose Hillary. It did seem a little hypocritical to endorse him so late in the game, just after Bernie Sanders dropped out. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/barack-obama-endorse-joe-biden-2020-election-democrats
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 12:59:PM
It's well-known that Michelle favoured Joe for the Presidency in 2016, but Barrack chose Hillary. It did seem a little hypocritical to endorse him so late in the game, just after Bernie Sanders dropped out. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/barack-obama-endorse-joe-biden-2020-election-democrats

Why didn't Joe go for the Presidency in 2016? Being VP for 8 years he may have defeated Hilary in the Primaries. Nothing to lose & he would have been 4 years younger.

Barrack could have just said he liked both candidates.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 01:11:PM
Why didn't Joe go for the Presidency in 2016? Being VP for 8 years he may have defeated Hilary in the Primaries. Nothing to lose & he would have been 4 years younger.

Barrack could have just said he liked both candidates.
Wasn't it something to do with his son Beau's death? Whether he was bereaved or it was an excuse to hide lack of wider support he's certainly had several bites of the cherry before this bid.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on November 07, 2020, 01:32:PM
What will this mean for the UK ? He's not exactly a fan of Brexit is he ?
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on November 07, 2020, 01:36:PM
Biden's already told Boris that he " must honour the Good Friday Agreement or there will be no separate deal with the US ".
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 01:56:PM
Going for it in 2016 meant Biden could have had 8 years as President. Beating Hilary in the Primaries would have given Biden a boost before facing Trump. Just as it did for Obama before facing McCain in 2008.

Biden v Trump in 2016 may have been closer. Trump was someone new & different. However Biden was 4 years younger than he is now & was coming straight out of being VP for 8 years.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Real Justice on November 07, 2020, 02:14:PM
So how do you explain this?
I don’t think she’s driven for ages Roch?

One of the regrets I have about my public life is that I can't drive any more," Hillary Clinton told a car dealers' conference on Monday. Among her most painful memories, you suspect this doesn't rank all that high. Yet the remark is a reminder of how wealth and power tend to separate people from normal life, and how they don't always like it. Clinton has not driven a car since 1996, on the instructions of the secret service, and it is something that her husband pines for too. "Whenever I'm on the golf course I always make them let me drive the golf cart," Bill Clinton has said.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 04:23:PM
What will this mean for the UK ? He's not exactly a fan of Brexit is he ?
It will probably mean we get a worse deal from the US and the EU than might have been the case had Trump been re-elected. Remember Obama told us we would be "at the back of the queue". It's why I wasn't in favour of the demonstrations when Trump came to London, because trade deals mean jobs.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 04:55:PM
He's won..https://www.foxnews.com/
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 05:52:PM
Biden is certainly experienced. Will be less in your face than Trump was. Biden wouldn't be able to do constant interviews & press conferences.

Trump says he doesn't like losing. Has he ever lost? Built up his empire, then spent years saying 'your fired' to people. His first entrance into politics saw him become President.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 06:02:PM
Biden is certainly experienced. Will be less in your face than Trump was. Biden wouldn't be able to do constant interviews & press conferences.

Trump says he doesn't like losing. Has he ever lost? Built up his empire, then spent years saying 'your fired' to people. His first entrance into politics saw him become President.
I'm not sure he'll be back as some people are forecasting. In theory he's able to stand again but I think the Republican establishment will be glad to see the back of him. They are far more likely to choose Ted Cruz for 2024.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Adam on November 07, 2020, 06:07:PM
I'm not sure he'll be back as some people are forecasting. In theory he's able to stand again but I think the Republican establishment will be glad to see the back of him. They are far more likely to choose Ted Cruz for 2024.

Yeah Cruz, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio or Pence may run.

Mitt Romney is 73 so can't see him making another attempt.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 08:33:PM
Nigel Farage's take on the election: https://youtu.be/TJkiW5mvvNI
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 07, 2020, 08:44:PM
Some are saying Trump might leave the country.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 07, 2020, 11:30:PM
Forget climate change, the US trade deficit with China and Brexit for a moment. I'm sure as I speak Lady Colin Campbell is researching Neilia Hunter Biden, Jill Biden and Bill Stevenson. Expect the book to hit the stores sometime after Christmas..
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 08, 2020, 01:17:AM
The mystery is why some of the most affluent states in the North-East consistently vote Democrat, when taxes are likely to be higher.  https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-country-in-crisis-the-challenges-facing-america-as-biden-wins-presidency/ar-BB1aN4X8?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 08, 2020, 05:45:PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-lawsuits-robert-mueller-investigation-michael-cohen-b1695477.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-lawsuits-robert-mueller-investigation-michael-cohen-b1695477.html)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on November 08, 2020, 07:02:PM
Oh dear.  :)) :)) :)) :)) :)) :)) tax returns.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Roch on November 08, 2020, 07:20:PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-lawsuits-robert-mueller-investigation-michael-cohen-b1695477.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-lawsuits-robert-mueller-investigation-michael-cohen-b1695477.html)

The journalist is an early Bamber journalist.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: lookout on November 08, 2020, 07:24:PM
The journalist is an early Bamber journalist.




Oh gosh yes, just recognised the name.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 14, 2020, 11:31:AM
Hillary may be back..https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-administration-hillary-clinton-for-u-n-ambassador
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: David1819 on November 21, 2020, 06:05:PM
Trump continues to deny election loss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnNzKgy6Qg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnNzKgy6Qg)
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 21, 2020, 06:49:PM
Trump continues to deny election loss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnNzKgy6Qg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnNzKgy6Qg)
People will look back at history and wonder how on earth he managed to win in 2016.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: nugnug on November 29, 2020, 03:19:PM
after 6 months of bidden i think people aregoing to really miss trump.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on November 29, 2020, 03:22:PM
after 6 months of bidden i think people aregoing to really miss trump.
What a ridiculous throwaway comment from a man in his position. https://youtu.be/XsoHAwuQ73g
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: nugnug on November 29, 2020, 05:02:PM
are you not the slightist bit bothered that a clearly senile man has his finger on the little red button in 6 months im sure why are going to wish trump had won thats if we are alive of course.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on December 03, 2020, 10:14:PM
I think Trump was quite a good president, actually.  I don't agree with everything he says and does, and I think he could and should have gone further in a number of policy areas; but he was still an improvement, and I would have preferred a clear Trump victory in the 2020 election.  I think Biden/Harris will do some isolated good - and I even agree in principle with Biden on one or two things - but overall I think he will be awful for ordinary Americans.  There again, I lean decidedly to the Right politically, so I may well take a pro-Trump view overall. 

Is the declared outcome of the election legitimate? I have made an effort to look at the matter objectively, and from all angles, and I have read some of the litigation filings.  There is definitely evidence of major procedural irregularities, some of it frankly quite worrying; but, based on what I have seen so far, I am not inclined to believe that there is any serious evidence of organised widespread fraud.  However, more may come to light. Indeed, just today I read somewhere that there is proof, from a particular county of a disputed state, that around 20,000 people who were dead at the date of the election are recorded as having voted.  That's just one local area.  The source for this claim is biased, so at the moment I don't place much stall in it, and even if true, some of those votes will be legitimate mail-ins and absentee votes.  Nevertheless, if the claim has any basis to it, then it's not good.  Not good at all.

What will happen?  A number of claims are filed or in the system.  In all cases, it's a question of whether the evidence is sufficient to disturb the apparent results declared, and that turns on legal standards of proof, quality of evidence and procedural issues, etc.  In the alternative, there will be an effort on the part of pro-Trump Republicans to have certain classes of counted votes excluded on the basis that states exceeded their own constitutions or federal standards in liberalising the mail-in ballots. 

I doubt the U.S. Supreme Court will decide all this with finality, but assuming they accept certiorari, they may make a procedural ruling that has the effect of throwing sufficient Electoral College votes into doubt, with the outcome that there has to be a contingent election in the House and Senate.  Is that likely?  A week ago I would have said 'No' and I was pretty sure that Giuliani and Powell was 'trying it on', as we British say, but now I'm really not sure.

It's one of those cases that turns on a mixture of law, the U.S. Constitution itself and raw politics at different levels, and an added factor is that the U.S. judiciary, both state and federal, is undoubtedly highly politicised.  Thus, it's really difficult to offer a fair and balanced prognosis, especially at a distance.  But that's a summary of what I think about it.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on December 05, 2020, 10:47:PM
There have been allegations of fraud in US presidential elections before:

1960: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/10/was-nixon-robbed.html

The famous butterfly ballots and hanging chads in Florida 2000: https://youtu.be/zPAWcWEy-w4

Trump's tweet: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/20000-dead-voters-in-pennsylvania/
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on December 06, 2020, 02:57:PM
I should have explained which state I was talking about, but I don't want to give any credence to biased claims that are as yet unproven in a recognised court.  I wasn't referring to Pennsylvania, but to a different state, and having double-checked, I rounded the figure up too much.  What my source actually claims is that approximately 14,000 ballots were returned or cast by dead people in one highly-populated county and approximately another 3,000 elsewhere in the same state.  It seems that similar claims are being made about other states  - including, yes, Pennsylvania. 

One thing that, to my mind, gives the claim credence is that under the U.S. system, when ballots are cast or returned, it seems that the identity of the voter is publicly-recorded and the record is viewable to anybody.  Thus, it would be brazen of Trump and/or his supporters to go round making such claims without a proper basis.  Even so, it seems that's exactly what they are now accused of doing. 

There are other bits of evidence.  There's the video from the Georgia count.  I've also been reading accounts of how the voting machines work and it seems that, according to experts, some sort of co-ordinated machine fraud would have been possible.

Who should we believe?  Should we believe any of them?  I am reminded of the Apostle Paul: For now we see through a glass darkly.  What's worrying, to twist the metaphor, is what we might see when the fog clears.  And to mix metaphors, can we or should we necessarily blame some otherwise honest individuals among prominent Americans who do not want to look under the rock and face what is beneath it and its consequences?

The mainstream media are busy debunking it all, or trying to; and all sorts of other people are saying it's all lies.

I found this article on the CNBC website that may - I only say may - provide context for Trump's latest activities:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/trump-gop-fundraising-election-vote-fraud-claims.html

On the other hand, in fairness to Trump, I remind myself that the mainstream media have not acquitted themselves well, have not given his presidency a chance or reported him fairly, and are now very agenda-driven, as are activists opposed to Trump. 

The only mainstream outlets I can find that are reporting Trump favourably over this are Fox News (neo-conservative, so tenuously pro-Trump) and The Daily Express (which has shifted its market into dissident centre-right territory, i.e. Farage/Trump type people). 

As an example, here's a link to a recent article from The Daily Express, though as a caveat I am sceptical as to that newspaper's reliability:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1368787/joe-biden-election-2020-vote-fraud-donald-trump-latest-news

From all quarters, the truth seems to be taking second-place to the overt pursuit of power.  Surely the first priority is to ensure that elections are conducted with integrity?  Even from a crude gaming perspective, the prioritisation of civic integrity makes sense because once sharp practices and even cheating become normalised, everybody involved in the process loses credibility.

I should add that, as a British onlooker, one thing I find quite depressing is the way that a lot of Americans seem to underrate their own constitutional arrangements.  The American system, described by conservative jurist Antonin Scalia as a work of 'Renaissance genius', has important checks and balances that help resolve situations just such as this and, crucially, also help prevent democracy.  What I mean by that is that the Founding Fathers and drafters were (rightly, in my view) averse to mass democracy, in so far as the concept was understood then, for many reasons - one of which is that they regarded democracy as almost synonymous with cheating and the election of mob-backed charlatans. 

Anyway, with that, at this stage, I am not going to come to a firm conclusion of my own either way.  I am inclined to 'wait and see'.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on December 11, 2020, 12:51:AM
The latest in this saga is that the Texas Attorney-General (i.e. that state's highest legal officer) has filed suit in the Supreme Court against four other states for, as he sees it, the unconstitutionality of their mail-in ballot laws. 

Paxton has framed the litigation as a dispute between states, thus the apex court of the United States has original jurisdiction in the matter.  Specifically, the Paxton complaint asks the Supreme Court to push back the Electoral College voting date from 14th. December 2020 to a later date and to order the four respondent states to disregard unconstitutional ballots.  If successful, this would mean that those four states (and possibly more states if the scope of the action is then broadened) would have to repeat state-wide counts but without the invalidated ballots.  Presumably, this would then deliver the relevant electoral votes to Trump at the deferred Electoral College.

As matters stand, the Supreme Court has not actually accepted the complaint for an oral hearing, never mind decided it.  Paxton is still waiting for the justices to consider the arguments for and against whether they should hear the case at all, which is what the very strong response from Pennsylvania is about.  I am expecting the Supreme Court to knock Paxton back, but it is very difficult to be sure because the Supreme Court bench does now have more of a (small 'c') 'conservative' balance; and, any sort of legal prediction is difficult, even on the merits of a particular case, because the whole system in the United States is so highly politicised, something quite alien to the British way of doing things. 

In England & Wales, we don't officially have 'Conservative-appointed circuit court judges' or 'Labour-sympathising Lords Justices of Appeal'.  Lord Denning was not a Liberal Party appointee.  Lord Scarman was not a mainstay of his local Labour Party in between hearing appeal cases.  For that sort of carry on, or anything similar, to be the case here would be considered epically scandalous and there would be public inquiries and sundry demands for resignations or worse.  The nearest we have to a political judiciary here in England & Wales is that local lay magistracies have traditionally had to reflect the political balance of the sessional district in which they sit, but the appointment process was and is still officially neutral and bureaucratic.  In the United States, the judiciary is overtly political, as is routine law enforcement, with elected sheriffs and prosecutors.  Imagine an English county with a Chief Crown Prosecutor or Chief Constable who has been elected, running as the Labour or Conservative candidate.  We have Police & Crime Commissioners now, and used to have local police authorities made up of elected councillors, but these are mechanisms for deciding policy, whereas in the United States, elected prosecutors and sheriffs actually make operational law enforcement and prosecutorial decisions.  Even judges are elected in some local areas and states of the USA, which is bizarre - for instance in Pennsylvania, the state supreme court judges are popularly elected to 10-year terms!  It's just how they do things there.

None of this means that American judges are rigidly and simplistically partisan.  There does seem to be a shared sense of civic values in the system.  As a demonstration of this, the Northern Georgia Circuit federal judge who recently dismissed the Powell suit is a Republican appointee.  But was he being 'judicial'? Was he  upholding his oath of office and defending the Republic and a nation of laws, etc., etc., or is it that legal and political considerations are complexly entwined, the legal basis of the suit was politically ripe but legally and constitutionally premature, and thus he calculated that allowing the litigation to be quickly appealed up to the apex level is better politically and, for tactical reasons, this should be done without showing his own hand?  The fact he is overly a political appointee raises that question in my mind - which is the problem.  Can anyone have confidence in such a system?

There are some points that could be made for the American way of doing things, odd and strange as it seems to British eyes.  For one thing, Republican v Democrat partisanship was not traditionally ideological; that has only become a feature very recently.  Moreover, it should be remembered that the terms 'conservative' and 'liberal' not only have meanings in American English that are very different to the more nuanced meanings we are used to in Britain, they also have term of art denotations within a juridical context.  A 'judicially conservative' judge may nevertheless be a raging left-liberal; conversely, a judicially-activist judge may in fact be deeply conservative politically.  A possible example of the latter was the late Robert Bork, a very accomplished United States federal judge (though paradoxically and confusingly, Bork's activism had the aim of taming activism in favour of traditional American judicial passivism). These differences seem to cut across established partisan divisions, and individual judges will also revise and change their judicial attitudes with further learning and experience, all of which means that appointments or elections on the basis of simple party allegiance and patronage are no guarantor of the socio-cultural and political flavour of a particular court or circuit over the fullness of time. 

Most of the American judiciary themselves, state and federal, would probably prefer not to be looked on as didactic warring factions sitting in legatine mini-parliaments, but more as a Socratic elite ruling on (or quietly leavening, depending on the judicial attitude) American social and cultural mores over the vaster spans of service allowed to jurists compared with elected politicians.  In defence of the American system, it could be observed that the reality of a politicised judiciary - warts and all - is just a more honest basis to proceed, with checks and balances in place to discourage abuse and partisanship.  We like to think the English and wider British judiciary are impartial, but it's not really true in practical reality, and it is also obvious that there is extensive political interference and intervention in police and prosecution decisions in this country, it is just hidden and done behind the scenes.

Yet the reality is that American commentary, even rulings from learned federal and state supreme judges, tends to be ultra-partisan and Manichean, as well as boisterous, and it is quite difficult to discern what is really going on, even who is telling the truth.  For me, the knowledge that a particular judge is a 'Republican' or 'Democrat', or indeed 'Independent' - if there are any - completely undermines confidence in the American judicial system and means that, at least in my eyes, a crucial font of impartial and objective information within that society is tainted and coloured by agendas.

Returning to matters at hand, a significant development is that 17 states have now filed amici curiae in support of the suit.  On the political front, approximately half the GOP House delegation have also voiced support, which in itself changes nothing of the legal prognosis for success or failure in the Court itself, but partisanship for and against presidential personalities isn't always strictly split along party lines, and if Trump manages to force a contingent election in Congress (which I believe is the real intention, as this has historical precedence), then it bodes well that more than 100 House Republicans are already willing to back what we keep being told is ambitious, even vexatious and abusive, litigation that is bound to fail.

What are the possible outcomes of it all?  I think this is likely to go one of two ways:

(i). The U.S. Supreme Court hears one or more suits and issues rulings favourable to Trump.  If this happens, then the affected states will re-count and/or the issue will be decided by a contingent election in Congress.  If some or all affected states are pushed into a zugszwang of this sort, they may resist and insist on appointing Democratic electors (or anti-Trump Republicans).  If a contingent election looks likely, then the Democratic strategy may be to try and have the date of the election pushed back.

(ii). The Court rejects all the litigation or rules unfavourably for Trump.  What happens after this eventuality promises to be either the biggest damp squib in history, with the Trump phenomenon vanishing into thin air, or you have an actual constitutional crisis and civil war situation.  The Beltway elites mostly don't support Trump, but he does have a base, as demonstrated at the least by the 17 states that back the Paxton litigation and the 100 GOP House members.

The impact of Trump on U.S. politics has been not so much in policy (he didn't really do much that was different), it was more the iconoclastic mood of his presidency.  The question is whether this mood will continue when Trump departs and whether it can crystallise into something, and if so, what?  If Trump prompts a genuine crisis in the legitimacy of the American system of government, then - good or bad - that would be a stupendous legacy for a fairly banal New York property developer and international hotelier.  Nevertheless, as I explain above, the roots of an American political crisis are embedded in the flaws of the system itself.  The first president, George Washington, warned against partisanship and its cancerous affect on representative government, but even he might not have quite envisaged the unseemly - and unrepublican - hyper-partisan spectacle that has been unfolding before ordinary Americans for decades and cannot just be blamed on Donald Trump.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on December 11, 2020, 08:32:PM
Americans don't like losers, which is why to my mind Trump is finished. The Republican Party is far more likely to choose Ted Cruz, or at a pinch Marco Rubio next time.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on December 12, 2020, 02:39:PM
Americans don't like losers, which is why to my mind Trump is finished. The Republican Party is far more likely to choosed Ted Cruz, or at a pinch Marco Rubio next time.

These are both 'Washington Republicans'.  I agree the Republican Party may choose them, but they would be uninspiring to a country-at-large that has had four years of a personality like Trump.  Not that Trump differs much from Cruz or Rubio in terms of substance, I will grant.

I fear that the American system of government is not sustainable for much longer.  There is a case to be made that the country is just too big, both in physical size and population, and has become too diverse.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: nugnug on January 01, 2021, 03:32:PM
we cant fathem is if bidden really won shouldent his party have picked up house seats but they dident they lost seats instead.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on January 01, 2021, 03:36:PM
we cant fathem is if bidden really won shouldent his party have picked up house seats but they dident they lost seats instead.
I don't know the form of the ballot paper but it suggests to me that in the postal ballots many people ticked or crossed just one box, namely for Biden, and left the others.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 02, 2021, 04:41:PM
we cant fathem is if bidden really won shouldent his party have picked up house seats but they dident they lost seats instead.

In addition to what Steve says, what I am also picking up is that a lot of ordinary white surburban Americans, who generally vote for Republican Party candidates, strongly dislike Trump and, as a result, have cast mixed votes - i.e. they have voted to send a Republican to the House and Senate, but also voted for Biden in the presidential election, all on the same ballot paper.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 03, 2021, 06:39:AM
In addition to what Steve says, what I am also picking up is that a lot of ordinary white surburban Americans, who generally vote for Republican Party candidates, strongly dislike Trump and, as a result, have cast mixed votes - i.e. they have voted to send a Republican to the House and Senate, but also voted for Biden in the presidential election, all on the same ballot paper.

Even some senior American politicians seem a touch naive about the relationship between socio-cultural outlook and usual voting preferences.  In the below clip, the Governor of Texas seems to think that people who migrate from California and vote for Ted Cruz must be fundamentally conservative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzfyve5yfBc
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: Steve_uk on January 04, 2021, 08:42:PM
Is there a doctor in the White House..https://youtu.be/uhqSutL0nWI
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 08, 2021, 05:53:AM
Cantemus carmen, 'Ardet Roma'...
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: nugnug on January 08, 2021, 11:49:AM
its weird there are supposed to have been violent protests but the ones i saw were perfectly peacefull.cops were being nice so were protesters.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 08, 2021, 04:28:PM
its weird there are supposed to have been violent protests but the ones i saw were perfectly peacefull.cops were being nice so were protesters.

There's a video showing the moment the protestors broke through the fenced police cordon and it clearly shows them fighting with the police - I believe it is officers of the U.S. Capitol Police.  However, I believe that is the worst of it from the protestors' side.  The rest of it is minor property damage and petty thefts, essentially.  Confusingly, there is also a clip floating around showing police officers allowing protestors through another part of the fence perimeter.

There were four fatalities, all protestors.  Three of them were on account of medical causes, while the gunshot fatality was the result of a shot fired by some sort of law enforcement officer or agent from within the House chamber itself.  The lady who was shot was on the other side of the door and took a bullet in the neck, which seems to have killed her instantly.  Apparently, the agent/officer was firing blind, which if true, is utterly disgraceful.  I trust there will be a thorough investigation because they must have known none of those protestors were armed.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 08, 2021, 04:58:PM
I spoke too soon.  Looks like a Capitol officer was on life support after being hit with a fire extinguisher and is now dead.  Furthermore, one of the protestors died due to being trampled, not medical causes.
Title: Re: US Election 2020
Post by: QCChevalier on January 08, 2021, 09:14:PM
I have now seen a clearer video of that woman being shot inside the halls of the U.S. Congress.  I will not share it here.  She is blurred in the video I have seen, to protect her dignity, but what it does clearly show is that the Capitol police officer was not shooting blind, as was originally thought.  From the angle shown, he must have had clear sight of her and it appears to be a potential murder.  The officer has been placed on administrative leave.